I got up this morning at 3:11 AM and started working.  Brain on fire and unable to sleep.  It crossed my mind that this may be linked to a pending major earthquake.  But how, exactly, is not clear.

Allow to to explain (if this is your first visit) that I am very susceptible to extreme tiredness before major earthquakes.  Not all, but enough so that I note the events when they happen.  More frequent with 7.2 and above.

As I was wired and amped this morning I got to wondering about whether there is a “flip side” to the phenomena:  Might there be a period of extreme energy preceding the onset of the “Earthquake Tired” period? 

I guess we shall see.

But the low level quake swarms continue in California and against that background a discussion of the magnitude of statistical outliers (like mega quakes) in the normal power law distribution of noise is sure to come up.  And therein lies this extract which is totally fascinating:  (*by de Oliveira GF1, Di Lorenzo O1, de Silans TP1, Chevrollier M1, Oriá M1, Cavalcante HL2.)

For a long time, extreme events happening in complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, were thought to follow power-law size distributions. More recently, evidence suggests that in many systems the largest and rarest events differ from the other ones. They are dragon kings, outliers that make the distribution deviate from a power law in the tail. Understanding the processes of formation of extreme events and what circumstances lead to dragon kings or to a power-law distribution is an open question and it is a very important one to assess whether extreme events will occur too often in a specific system. In the particular system studied in this paper, we show that the rate of occurrence of dragon kings is controlled by the value of a parameter. The system under study here is composed of two nearly identical chaotic oscillators which fail to remain in a permanently synchronized state when coupled. We analyze the statistics of the desynchronization events in this specific example of two coupled chaotic electronic circuits and find that modifying a parameter associated to the local instability responsible for the loss of synchronization reduces the occurrence of dragon kings, while preserving the power-law distribution of small- to intermediate-size events with the same scaling exponent. Our results support the hypothesis that the dragon kings are caused by local instabilities in the phase space.

The grand pu-bah of this line of inquiry is Didier Sorenette who has applied some of the low-level signals drive magnitude of outliers  Sornette’s 2004 book doesn’t get into small parameter phasing as a control mechanism (or dragon king outliers) but his general application of geophysical math to markets is still a delightful read: Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems.  Especially given when we are in the economic cycle.

So yes, it seems that specific events drive 92004) and now we are seeing applications to specific parameters.  This is turn should lead to analogous parameters in economics (as opposed to electronics). 

One of these days, I will update my 1990’s work on the parallels between electronic theory and market dynamics…

Prepping: HF Ham Radio and Hurricanes


What does this picture tell you?

I mean other than George drives a Kenwood TS-590 on the 20-meter ham band?

It suggests you listen to 14.325 MHz for the Hurricane Watch Net. Upper sideband.

If it’s early (the net will move to 20 meters from 40 meters (7.268 MHz, lower sideband) when the higher band opens up.

More details from the Hurricane Watch Net website at www.hwn.org website.

Sun Goes Missing

Talking ham radio always gets us to a discussion of the 11-year (approximately) solar cycle progression. The sun spot numbers are related to how radio propagates and with more sun spots, the MUF (maximum useable frequency) moves up. When the cycle is “high” things like 50 MHz DX (distance) communication is possible. Right now? Not so much. Low bands are fairly quiet, too.


What the just-updated (this week) progression from NOAA shows is that the sun is under-performing. That means several things: It may have something to do with the return of hurricanes that took some time off. Another is that it means Sun output is down, hence it will take more data tweaks that ever to convince the sheep that global warming is coming to get us all. Wasn’t New York supposed to be underwater, by now? And then there is the matter of global cooling which no one (Except Robert Felix of the Ice Age Now website, https://iceagenow.info/) has written about.

And we are early for now this year as attested by the heavy snow warnings for Saskatchewan.

Musical Doctors

Elaine and I have been doing doctor visits this week.

Mine (Monday) was for eye surgery follow-up. Still legal to fly but the operative eye is back to 20/60’ish, but will bump up to 20/40 when a new contact comes in. The other eye is 20/30 minus 2.

A couple of things about eyes that you maybe didn’t know.

One is that my eyes have irregular corneas. The way to get around that is to wear a hard (gas permeable) lens. This (along with tears) makes a kind of artificial lens which takes out the irregularity of curviture which is my problem.

On the horizon, a new treatment involving the application of riboflavin to the cornea seems to get very good results. I know a young jet jockey with just such “dialing in” done on one of his eyes. See the discussion of corneal collagen cross-linking over here.

Elaine was off to the lady plumbing doctor Tuesday. That led to a referral for second opinion Wednesday. But thankfully, that was a false alarm.

It does get to an interesting discussion of how humans make clothing, since virtually all pants are sewn with four layers of cloth coming together at the top of the inseam. May be OK for male plumbing locations, but now (sheesh, too much info?) not for all ladies.

And there is a challenge for you to take up: Design a new/improved way of sewing pants. Big money in it, trust me.

Especially to those who are female and wear “spray-on” jeans.

One other thing to come out of this week’s doctoring (of interest to female readers) is that those handy wipes may not be good for the private parts so much as advertised. Curious point is that the FDA doesn’t have to approve toiletry goods but we do wonder about things like this. What is in those wipes and what it the long-term efficacy of external application to sensive (pink part) skin? Hmmm… marketing wins, health loses?

Oh, wait: Maybe keeping the public healthy and living for a very long time is not part of the agenda, you think? Check the Social Security black budget hole and get back to me with a reasonable answer.


Dopamine/Paranoia Link?

I didn’t know this, but there may be a link between dopamine levels and paranoia/schizophrenia. Paper dating back to 1992 may be found in PubMed here.

As long as we’re talking behavior and dopamine function, a recent paper worth your time might be “Alcohol misuse in emerging adulthood: Association of dopamine and serotonin receptor genes with impulsivity-related cognition.

One more for the pile: l-Theanine protects against excess dopamine-induced neurotoxicity in the presence of astrocytes.

I mention this because a) I seem to be fairly sensitive to L-theanine (active ingredient in green tea, experimentally used while dieting – a long discussion but generally it works, but raises resting heart rate) and b) some members of Ure’s family have lower dopamine levels, and c) dopamine is closely related to Alzheimer’s which we have a touch of in the family.

So what does this have to do with you??

1.If you have never looked into dopamine levels, you might find them an interesting vitamin “tuning” tool. I take L-Tyrosine (a precursor). And…

2.You may be interested in exploring some of the literature linking dopamine function to belief systems. Mostly subclinical, but there is some suggestion that dopamine chemistry might relate to how people believe the things that is and the things that isn’t.

THIS IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE. Go pay someone for that.

Toothy Grin, Forensic Economics

As soon as this morning’s financial review is up, I’m off to the dentist. Filling fell out of a front tooth. I’ll take the Jimmy Durante gas cannula, thanks.

A review of our health expenditures so far this year suggests we are heading for a nearly equal distribution between the GP, Eye Surgeon, and Snaggletoother.

It’s not the kind of equality I was looking for in the world…but it is what it is, I ‘spose.

Tomorrow: Notes on a new Lucid Dreaming book.

And for Peoplenomics readers this weekend, something off the economics path. “Quest for the Light Crown: History and Redevelopment?”

Say cheese…and write when you get rich,