Change Week is here. Not only news, but we also fall over into the “backside of summer from here. With gasoline prices today at $3.596 per gallon according to Triple A, we’re also in “Peak Vacation weeks” too.
CFNAI Data Release
The Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator is another Regional Fed summary that’s considered as the FOMC gavels in for their rate hike meeting tomorrow and announcement Wednesday:
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.32 in June from –0.28 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and three of the four categories made negative contributions in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to
–0.16 in June from –0.21 in May.
After the data, the (insane bull) market was still fractionally higher. Not hot means less chance of a 1/2 percent hike, perhaps, from the FOMC.
Housing is Next
Our morning scrawl tomorrow is in two parts. The first at the regular (when I get around to it, but before 7:55 AM Central) time. The second report tomorrow will be on the housing data.
Pay attention here, because the markets are likely to do a lot of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News trading this week.
Since 10 years of rally in U.S. house prices could end, says Robert Shiller (cnbc.com) is being hinted in advance, something of a rally at the open today and a selloff late today and into Tuesday sure wouldn’t surprise us.
Which – if it occurs – would set up a minor rally (Wednesday morning?) and then a potential for Big Disappointment in the Fed Wednesday. But the REAL declines could come at week’s end when the rest of the world figures out impacts of the expected Fed hike. Our money is on a half, not a quarter, but delusional day trading is our thing.
War Week in Odessa
We put up the play-along-at-home battlefield mess map a couple of weeks back. In case you missed it, this is where Wagner is on the north side of Ukraine and the Odessa battle is down in the red arrow vicinity.
The headlines to go with this?
The Buyed ‘Em Ukraine payoffs to his son becoming political fodder in do9mestic politics won’t help the cause of peace. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says Joe Biden bribery claim ‘needs to be investigated’ (nypost.com).
So the reason this is “fulcrum/change week” is that Biden’s neocon embeds have been spoiling for war and if they can deliver “big enough, fast enough” the utter corruption of the administration will be spun-over by corporate shill media.
Energy Department Pickpockets
As China keeps bringing up MORE coal plants, the political hacks at the Department of Energy want you punished. We’re sure you saw US plans water heater standards, says they will save consumers $11 billion | Reuters.
But in addition, while one hand is going for the water heaters, the other we mentioned in ShopTalk Sunday is going to clamp down on who has power to recover from hurricanes and natural disasters, Biden Administration Rule Would Ban Nearly All Portable Gas-Powered Generators | ZeroHedge.
With “I’m from the government and I’m here to help” off the rails, seems to us that America’s home-grown enemies now pose a greater existential risk than communism or terrorism, as we score it.
Unless? Well, sure, if someone in an official capacity admitted “We have modeled the future and water heating and generators won’t be around, so start adjusting to it…” Well, then instant creds are restored.
BUT that will never happen.
Instead, Poland/NATO could be “into it” this week. Which might be followed by a Russian nuke at some point. But then, with “first use” off the table, the Israelis go weapons-free on the Iran nuke mountains where they’re building bombs. Which then pisses off Islamic states so much that a year end all-out on Israel could happen.
In which case, the larger Wave III down ends in March-ish of next year. We get a Wave IV rally, which by later ’24 or ’25 turns into global war. Then Complexity collapses and humans sunset.
There, ain’t you glad its Monday?
BTC is calling it: Down to just over $29,200, looks to us like the markets will drop a few percent to join it, shortly.
Oooh! Yeow. Check this out BTC ballers: Elon Musk’s Tesla Reportedly Removes Bitcoin As Payment Option, But Keeps Dogecoin – Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) – Benzinga
Checking the Pudd’nhead Press
We assume the Mark Twain’s Pudd’nhead Wilson novel is still clearly remembered?) We are reminded in that by Sam hisself:
“There is no character, howsoever good and fine, but it can be destroyed by ridicule, howsoever poor and witless. Observe the ass, for instance: his character is about perfect, he is the choicest spirit among all the humbler animals, yet see what ridicule has brought him to. Instead of feeling complimented when we are called an ass, we are left in doubt.”
So much for foreplay. Let’s have an ass check, shall we?
Rich? Wanna see Rich? Take US announces punitive measures over concerns Cambodia’s elections were ‘neither free nor fair’ (sfchronicle.com). See, when the Clintonistas orchestrated with FBI insiders’ things like the totally disproven Russia gate, no one (big, connected) gets punished. But now We – the Mighty Moral High Ground America – are off lecturing other countries on elections? (Seriously, are you shitting me? Why, we have more gall than a bladder operation!)
Sherwood Forest and kimchee, anyone? Another US submarine visits South Korea in wake of North Korean launches, threats. Lest you think my headline writing has lost it – which is possible, of course – “In missile submarines, crew members may run laps around “Sherwood Forest, the missile tubes…” So sayeth the web… and thus we assure you, Ure is guilty only word crimes.
Skip the Shopping, do the Globalism thing: Oui, oui: Jill Biden is in Paris to mark the US return to the UN’s educational and scientific agency | Centre Daily Times
So, it wasn’t Yogi and Boo-boo? Woman dead after apparent grizzly bear attack near Yellowstone.
ATR: The Anti-Aging Notebook
(Around the Ranch)
Taking, as we do, a fair number of anti-aging supplements, we’ve been kicking around the best way to tell if things are working. Or not.
Infrequent readers of this site may not realize it, but the major anti-aging protocols we follow include:
- Selenium + CoQ-10
- And an HGH stimulus package
While on the external side there’s red light therapy of our own design (transcranial and thymus directed). Plus, gobs of exercise and outdoor activity. And some goodies like lithium orotate because we both have the APOE-4 allele which means increased Alzheimer’s risk in our genetics.
Then on the food side: I’ve dropped just a shade under 20-pounds since May 4th, and in coming months, another 30 which will put me in the 170-pound range which will slide me out of “overweight” into the normal range. Two meals a day, keto, less booze, yada, yada. Bored but healthy?
BUT DOES IT WORK?
This is where things turn subjective. On an appearance basis, yes. People regularly take Elaine as 20-years younger than her age and most people guess me as “about 50-50” which is 20-years younger than actual.
But one of the less subjective ways to measure your age is to test reaction speeds. This is the “functional foundation” where we figure *with no medical background* that slow reactions would feed into increased “slip and fall risk” for seniors like us.
I mention this periodically but here it is again to bookmark this time: The Reaction Time Test | JustPark.
I try to remember to look at my reaction speed about once a month. There are two ways I measure, both in early morning.
- The first run is made right after taking the morning supplement stack but before any coffee or tea. The right-hand reaction today was an average of 34 with a best of 31-year-old equivalent. While the left side was 32 best (again of five trials) and an average of 33.
- The second run -30 minutes later as things kicked in – was (right side) average of 31 and best of 27-year-old reactions. Average and best of five trials.
Our thinking on the use of an online reaction speed test is that it may be an indication of physical aging. There have been a number of theories about why reaction speeds lengthen while people age. And recent papers like Age-related increases in reaction time result from slower preparation, not delayed initiation – PubMed (nih.gov) are worth reading, as well.
The other thing – and just pulling concepts out of the air here – is that if you have the risk of stroke, just as dissimilar blood pressures between right and left-hand side of the body may be present, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a reaction-time differential in stroke cases.
While looking at recent studies (like Simple and choice reaction times of healthy adults and patients after stroke during simulated driving – PubMed (nih.gov)) we could sure see a “new invention needed” as a portable diagnostic tool for people riding “back of the box”. (Like EMTs and Paramedics.) Not as a substitute for a 12-lead, of course. But maybe a useful pseudo-medical device for those of us serious about health here in our AARP years.
Something to think about. Two lights (green and red). Default is green. Squeeze the (thingy) when the light turns red. Silicon voice says “Your reaction time was 374-milliseconds. Age 28.” Right side and left side prompts.
Send us one when you get the prototypes done…As the tea and just the smallest about of CBD kicks in, my average (both sides) is down to that of a 28-year-old. Fast enough to fry up some protein for breakfast, perhaps.
Write when you get rich,