Reader Note: Posting in segments today due to heavy precip taking down satcoms. CenturyLate DSL up and down. Patience, please….
Daily Data Check
These will change around noon as new data comes out and adds:
Our back-of-the-envelope – unofficial – numbers forward: Cases ahead first:
Then, projected death toll globally based on current rates of increase:
As of earlier this morning (7 AM) market futures were indicating a decline in the decline today: You see Dow futures were up 200, remember they dropped 2997 points on Monday. Calling dead cats….can you bounce?
That said, we could be in position for something of a rally in here. For one, there’s talk of a national shut-in which would slow the spread.
And the Happy-Talk is back in stories like CNBC’s Hopes of a coronavirus vaccine mount as three key biotech players make progress. We won’t be trying to play it, yet, though. A little lunch money off the table Monday and that’s fine.
We will, I fear, get to the point as we may only be 50% of the way into a long-term market decline, perhaps visit ETF No-No land. We covered this a year (maybe four?) back on the Peoplenomics side.
The problem for Triple-levered ETFs is how far down can they go before the fund blows up? Remember, most ETF operators have offset funds (a bull fund against a bear), but in terms of underlying assets it’s an interesting area for speculation.
One reader had asked in the comments section about how “Ure’s 3X ETFs were doing?”
There are a number of answers: 1) I don’t disclose my specific trading positions because some litigious sonofabitch might wrong-headedly claim I was giving market advice. I don’t. 2) How much Ure makes, or loses is NOYFB. And 3) the most important thing in a major decline is not “How much do you make on Ure money – but how much you end up with when all’s said and done…”
30-acres and a double-wide, guns and a greenhouse is worth…uh…how much? Through most of 1997-2019 people thought I was an idiot. Think Grand Master….and the End Game.
To Our Critics in NYC
A couple of people jumped on my sk*t for the post Sunday morning about what idiots in New York were doing – still planning – to keep schools open.
That was walked-back by Bill de Blasio Sunday night. When I get time, I will figure out how to turn the time display of posts back on, but no, I’m not an idiot – and if someone wants to think so, piss off…the web’s a big place. Be gone.
If you don’t know Crazy Bill walked it back because aware people noticed the odor of his policy gaffe, this site is not 4 U!
If everyone wants me to turn on posting times (which will slow page load speed) let me know. Otherwise, the Midtown whiners can sit on it and Twirl.
De Blasio was off base – we called it. He walked it back. I mean WTF? Don’t just drop by an immediately start bitching…God…no wonder we’re in a heap-o-shit, huh?
Data people – not beliefs.
Yeah, we’re into the “Can the Fed out-print Gravity” part of the thrill ride now. As you may have noticed, the Fed is buying out government’s paper to keep the whole house of cards from blowing up. And, we’re just marking time until a German bank blows up and the banks come looking for handouts of tax money.
No doubte, governments globally will wrongly agree – because they will put on airs about “saving the economy” but it’s about bailing out the rich. Bondholders demand money ahead of depositors and that’s a crock. All though taste the pain of financial excess. The bank didn’t get all its money from bondholders…us regular checking and savings people make the whole party (appear to) work.
Anyway, gold’s going down because when market players get upside down they see ALL KINDS of assets – including Gold and Silver.
Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Utilization due out today. Click here about 9:15 Eastern for the latest. Last month’s data is up until then.
Why This Decline May be Only Half Done
It’s simple, really: We just laid off over half the U.S. Economy. The lost paychecks and bills from this will catch up down the road. And will you be the first person to go out for dinner when the all-clear is sounded?
Not I said the old geezer. “Nor I,” echoes Elaine the geezer-pleezer..
Manufacturing is Our Achilles
If you were a data jock, you’d know the US hasn’t increased manufacturing since about 2005, or so.
And now, we up – check this – about 4% above where we were in 2000!
Where did the real jobs go? Wuhan and environs and all the while the clown posse in Washington increased our taxes in another round of Federal “screw the pooch and sell the pups.” It’s really appalling.
Service industry? Making up stuff like apps and so on? That’s the US nowadays. Industrially incapable. No other country need ever fight us. They just wait for us to self-destruct which we are doing a splendid job of.
Your do realize that there are more than 131-million people doing “service” jobs in America and only 12.9-million making things?
Here’s some YUGE economic insights for the lefty’s and the free-luncher’s: For a country to be wealthy, it needs to make it’s own shit. Otherwise, we will sell off our innards in order to buy crap from somewhere else.
What thinking people around here know is that MAGA really means is?
MAUNUFACTURE AMERICAN GOODS AGAIN!
Unless, you’re part of the commies on the hill trying to sell-us out so they can be the new Soviet power-brokers to run the mess in the aftermath, during which they’ll claim “We were elected….”
Why I Hate Mitt Romney, II
As long as the spleen is venting…
I don’t like self-righteous people at ALL. So you can imagine how I felt to read how ol’ Mitt was pandering to the people again as CNN reported “Romney proposes giving $1,000 to every American adult as coronavirus response measure.”
Where TF was Mitt when we were selling off industrial assets from America to build up China? ,No, this is that same (GD)_ free-lunch crowd making up problems and then self-righteously offer carefully pandered options that will feather their political nests. Watch the Dems and Romney make another run at screwing the sitting and duly elected president. Traitors in all but legal details, near as I can figure it. Takers, not builders.
Has NOTHING to do with Mitt’s religious beliefs, either. I know a number of LDS families up in Utah who have had it “up to here” with Mitt’s Globalist panderings.
Besides…if America’s going to give a trillion to save “banks and critical industry” (oh, and the Fed), you do know that $1-trillion divided by 160-million real working people is how much?
$6,250 PER WORKER
Anyone who would let Peloser and Mitt come in with a low-freaking-ball number like that is a(yet another) insult to the American working class…. Frigging Elitists.
OK, enough for now. I have to call NASA now so they can turn the Hubble around and search for my blood pressure which left the atmosphere when the NYC whiners lit up. Maybe a primal scream at the cats would help?
Where my high cholesterol breakfast…stat!
Write when you get rich,