You know when Monday is going to be a “building tensions” day when your first round of chess to limber-up the brain goes like this:
By the 19th move, the computer was laughing “Mate in 3.” So I haplessly concluded another entry in my journal: Don’t play chess near the full moon; scores are lower.
Markets, too, get a little nutso around this period. With yesterday being the full moon, we anticipate things will rally madly for a while, but then calm down, or even decline, as the moon phase shifts toward the last quarter and tomorrow’s dispensation of Producer Prices and then Wednesday’s Consumer Prices.
Toss in a possible second Trump Executive order on immigration – which as we discuss in the Coping section will lead to predictably more demonstrations and what-not – we expect weakness to evolve in coming weeks.
As long as we’re on the mental/mindset part of the market, it should be noted that this coming summer we will have a full eclipse take a path directly through the U.S.
Those who are familiar with the work of Steve Puetz will recall his work suggesting that market crashes tend to occur when we see a solar eclipse in close proximity to a lunar eclipse.
Since we have one of those (lunar) coming up August 7 – and the solar is on August 21 – then we would have to put this in our sights as a high probability time to be short the market, though we’ll let our trading indicators guide on that.
Still, what could a pile of put options cost?
There is a fascinating Elliott Wave problem to be faced here: Market advances and declines happen in three or five (an d occasionally) seven wave “steps.”
The most terrible damage is almost always done in the third wave, but in exceptional conditions, the 5th waves are worst – particularly true in commodities. We note in passing that stocks have been slowly becoming more “commodity-like.”
I laid all this out (and some “through future darkly”) for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend. For today, the Dow futures are pointing up 50, but ,with CPI coming that could be a major “buy the rumor – sell the news” event…which would then possibly set up the final manic run into the record books.
A good deal will depend on how foreign markets perform, though….and we’ll update that outlook Wednesday.
Record Tax Collections
U.S. Treasury data over here says tax collections are up – way up. That’s the news. Now some simple analysis:
January a year ago the reduction in the deficit was $55.163 billion. This January, though the deficit reduction was only $51,257 billion.
To be sure, $344 billion income as opposed to $315.6 billion the previous year is a nice number, but expenses were up more so the deficit came down.
Down in Table 3 you can see $197.23 billion of January income was from individuals while corporations paid only $9.145 billion.
For the whole Federal fiscal year, humans will pay 1.544 TRILLION while corps will pay $298-billion.
Still, we are on track for a much large federal defict – and I’m telling you all these data so when you see stories in the MSM about how “Feds collect record taxes” you won’t jump to the conclusion that a tax cut would be a good thing.
A number of subscribers didn’t like our cold view that says a Trump tax cut would be a bad thing…but the conditions of today (bottom of the long wave interest rate cycle) is about as close to a doppelganger opposite of the Reagan era conditions as you’ll find.
Moreover, economists of the era, I think foolishly – claimed it was trickle down working.
Complete horse crap: Of course you’re going to have growth when the damn personal computers were going mainstream for heaven’s sake. HP, Compaq and all those giants were just in the ramp-up.
Nope…nothing like the seeds of the information revolution in sight so saving tax cuts for when the economy hits a major decline would be much sounder policy.
Yeah, yeah…I know…who gives a rip about “sound policy?” Touché.
Pawns to Slaughterhouse Three.
Fear and Trumpedation
Do the math: Population of Mexico City is 8.851 million. So the size of the demonstration was what?
A little over 2-10ths of one percent. (0.22596%).
Next demonstration? Sure…
Do the Math: Population of The Bronx is 1.419 million (2013 data). So the participation level works out to a whopping what?
0.014% Which we would call about one-one-hundredth of one percent since under a last digit op 5 you round down.
Although we expect the anti-Trump media will change the rules of math in which case it would be 2-one-hundredths of one percent…
You see how “big movements” turn into wildly marketed tiny little farts when you get the calculator after things?
Even in Berkeley – those paid “demonstrators.” What? 1,500 maybe?
Population of Berkeley is 115,768 (2013 data) so 1,500 (some paid) isn’t that big. But wait – wasn’t it just 150 – likely the paid ones? Again, we do the math:
1.28%. of 0.128%.
Berkeley has a large problem: They have a lame/unprepared police department which took a “hands off” attitude – netted only a tiny handful of rioters – and was totally unprepared for Black Block Tactics.
My liberal friends hate it when I diss Berkeley as “no so smart.” But then I look at the balance of the community and run the numbers. Sheesh.
Oroville Dam Jitters
Well, here we go:” This was the scene Sun day as the emergency spillway orr to the side of the Oroville Dam was spilling water from recent heavy rains.
There we can see the water flow which could eat back toward Lake Oroville’s 1.1 trillion gallons of water.
Consequently, ,more than 185,000 people have been evacuated downstream in order to avoid the potential for a Jonestown-type flood outcome if the dam should fail.
What Happens When…
Eugenics meets racism? Well you might get stories like “Black Lives Matter co-founder appears to label white people ‘defects’.”
This has been a very hard year for Ure’s truly and lots of middle Americans. First we get labeled a deplorable. Now we’re getting a “recessive genetics” label.
I can hardly wait for the next insults to arrive. If you bump into George
La Raza Soros, would you mind asking him?
In Case You Missed It:
Humans are not really in charge anymore…not as algorithms are taking over control of the world.
Interesting question of public policy does arise…since government claims power to regulate “dangerous pesticides” and such, why isn’t it setting up a plan to do what we think is obvious:
License the application and deployment of certain kinds of algos…