(Back at the Ranch) It’s the overworked analogy of the three-legged-milk-stool facing investors for the next couple of weeks..
While the Dow futures earlier were down about 50-75, this is a fine time to be working on market-direction judgment skills because we have three macro-trends and a seasonal factor going.
1. There is a major concern around investment outfits about how “the numbers” will work out for the year. In high-rolling firms, the bonus can be many times the salary of top decision-makers.
Here’s the problem: The S&P 500 Index closed 2014 at 2,058.90. Yesterday, the S&P closed at 2,041.89. Down for the year.
So in order for the bonus pool to come in good (depending on how the compensation package is worked) a fund manager or sales type would need to turn in a barely positive performance for the year.
From the investor standpoint, the year as mostly sucked. The return on a portfolio of S&P stocks (not accounting for dividends, bankruptcies, splits, and yada yah) is about nothing.
I won’t rub salt in the wound by mentioning something we kick around on thes.com side quite often: The problem of where to invest when there is no ‘safe haven’ available.
So yes, there can be some hidden incentive to drive the market down in order for some managers to look relatively better than the overall slog.
2. Tax selling happens every year. The idea is that if you have a loser in your portfolio, you want to unload it real soon in order for the sale to settle ahead of the annual close.
Most wise investors who aren’t psychologically married to loser instruments have been unloading since much earlier this year. But there are enough “I know it’s going to change if I just hang in another few weeks…” types, that there is always something of a rush for the exit door about now.
Casinos are another place you find crowds of people who don’t understand runs in the statistical sense.
3. Last but least, we have Dynamics. (Not to be confused with Boston or Microsoft).
A long time back, I mentioned either here (or to Peoplenomics readers) that an idealized close on Dec. 31 this year would be an S&P of 1,983.76 based on my modeling work.
Just so’s you understand how good (or bad) our guesses are, here’s a summary of deviations from predicted S&P” levels on a daily basis from October 2 of this year:
That last line may not make sense, but what it means is that ideally, in my modeling of the world, the S&P would close today around 2,044.63.
The odds of that happening are very low, but the model gives us some ideas where things could/seem likely to go based on the notion that there is something of an historical replay underway that most people completely miss. Except Peoplenomics.com readers, of course.
There’s more to it than “just history” – there is also the fact that major waves in market sentiment are somewhat self-similar. In other words, the market closed yesterday 18 points from where it “should” have on a self-similarity basis. Considering the position of the markets prior to the open, self-similarity between market moves is not a bad way to approach things.
But I digress.
The final point to consider: If the market closes the year around 1,983.76 l on the S&P, this may be a different kind of approach to market analysis worth further attention..
No, I don’t expect it will “hit” exactly. But to have some confidence (with 50-100 S&P points) on where the market would end the year isn’t a bad thing. Especially if that’s been on the drawing board since May when I began tinkering with the concept.
Even if the futures are saying Dow down 100 today, the model says the fat red guy rally ought to show up sometime…but beyond that, a soft downward trend through year-end seems to be the bigger scheme of things as they appear here in the Outback of East Texas.
Ukraine Goes Broke, Neocon’s Lose Their Syria Scam
Yeah – the Western corpgov media don’t seem to be mentioning much of two stories making it big in the Russian press today.
First off, for all their footsie-dancing with the EU, Ukraine is now broke and they will likely become the next Greece of the EU.:
“Noteworthy, the International Monetary Fund earlier acknowledged that Ukraine’s credit obligations were sovereign, rather than commercial. If Ukraine does not repay its debt to Russia before December 21, international creditors will cease to support the Ukrainian economy.
However, the IMF changed its rules to be able to continue crediting Ukraine, driving the country further into debt. Kiev has not adopted a budget for 2016 that would meet the requirements of the IMF, making a new loan impossible for the time being….”
The OTHER big score for Russia is that John Kerry met with Vlad Putin and has now accepted that Russia will not tolerate regime change in Syria. You can read the details over here at Fox News…and …
But the critical part is that NO ONE HAS BEEN FIRED FROM THE IDJIT-PACK AT STATE for what are arguably two of the worst-thought-out foreign policy blunders in recent memory.
All on Hillary’s watch and all with string pulling by Neocons still embedded in the State Department. We are sooooo screwed.,….
Hillary scored another coup this week – when Vlad Putin expressed his admiration for Donald Trump – which is a slick-willy way to endorse Clinton: Make it seem like Vlad likes Trump, people will weigh that negatively on the Trumpster, and the real agenda is this will bring more voters to Hil…oh, it’s a mess…but who needs socialism when you have Hillary, right?
And the former Republican Party…let’s not leave them out…
WRITE THIS DOWN
Notice how soon after the globalist-in-chief gets his plan for 10,000 MORE on top of 100,000 Syrian refugees funded by the Ryan – Obama wing of the GOP – how peace talks pop up?
Repeat after me: “We are hopelessly screwed…”
The Paul Ryan Sell-Out
As predicted: Ryan’s Express is aiding and abetting the finishing off the remains of America I.
I’ve been telling you for months how the republican party no longer exists and how Obama and the lobbyistas have taken effective control of the formerly Grand Old Party. The GOP has joined the Bolsheviks.
Now, after this incredible sell-out of American values, it should be clear why I am running for County Commissioner here in Texas as a member of the Porcupine Party. It’s time to get the pricks out of government.
We are not alone.. We have been blowing up their country, after all, by sending in arms to whoever.
We elected some real geniuses, did we not?
What we are seeing, for sure, is the sun setting on America I and the installation of the Sovietcan (America II) government.
We will awaken only too late to find out Perestroika was a “soft finish” to the Cold War. Am I the only one who read Gorby’s book?
Not that anyone should be surprised. This is what happens when politicians run on persuasion blocks and cash reports. Instead of values and rights.
There’s some mighty strange shit coming out of the
Kremlin Washington lately – some one has the control files of the GOP and is twisting them around by the you-knows…
With a ton of immigrants lost in England, (see:Officials admit they LOST TRACK of thousands of migrants and 30k asylum seekers overstayed) the government is having to “get tough” on immigrant funding.
We will undoubtedly go through the same kind of”horse out of the barn after the fire” thinking here, too.
The BHS (bleeding heart socialists) will give them the shirt off your back, but not their own. That’s how this stuff works.
Now, tell me you’re not as stupid as the Kneelers who still need to stand on soap boxes, even after claiming to be nominally “free.”
Bernie and the Cookie Jar
Speaking of socialisty kinds of things: You saw where Bernie Sanders is in trouble because one of his campaign folks penetrated Hillary’s data files?
Data Mess II: Climate Fraud
You have to read this Daily Caller piece: “NOAA Relies On ‘Compromised’ Thermometers That Inflate US Warming Trend”
Check this chart from the underlying press release – this is how climate got “baked” – cite the heat islands and presto! Global Government comes along…
Let me see: If I can jigger thermometer readings, I can make up any temperature you need, right? And you see the scientific data on how NOAA adjustments made-up global warming?
Well, of course!~ It’s the OTHER Global Government Plan…
You maybe haven’t heard about this yeti: A report in Discovery (as in ‘channel’)?
Such a notion is intriguing because it would explain sightings of the Yeti/abominable snowman. It would explain the sightings of Sasquatch.
I’m big on “what if’s” and this one is a peach.
What if there actually was a parallel civilization – one we have not be able to find, yet – and it decided to think, long ago, about what these other critters (*us humans) were really up to?
For all we know, Tesla or Maxwell might actually have completed a technology like teleportation, UFO propulsion, or whatever. Only to have it “removed” from humans as “not ready for it yet…”
Imagine a high culture that didn’t go down the mass-reproduction and industrialization path. Imagine people who enjoyed what nature has to offer and then sat back and wondered (*without religiosity or testosterone in the driver’s seat) “Gee, is this a useful thing to know? And does it fit with our be the smartest Yeti?
Fine concept to bounce around along with and a book like…