Early market futures were up over a hundred on the Dow and the look of the S&P was (*early) positive, as well. Looks like carryover hype.
The real story will be along after Europe closes and most of the remaining options start falling out, for it is that day of the month.
We are not especially keen on the balance of the month. Bitcoin is still hovering in the $16,700 area. And the long-term stock chart is still trying to get this wave two of a larger 3 down finished for sure-and-certain.
On the right, the a-b-c rally to the small white 2 has turned into an a-b-c-d-e but how e finishes can still be argued a couple of ways and a rally today will let early commercial buyers square up their books a bit.
Options Friday last month closed 31,698.52. This morning – on the early futures – we’re shooting for around 33,492.92. Which will lead to a lot of Bullish talk about how “the Worst is in” on the inflation front. Why else would the markets be up 5.66 percent (on an Aggregate basis) in one month?
Things don’t feel better to us, though.
Nothing to Buy!
America is entering the rehab portion of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars I’ve written about many times. Time to come to terms…
This is the period of contemporary economic history where the globalist wet dream of One World Order runs into the Reality Factors. Like happy bacteria, munching along, it’s only too late that the edge of the agar dish appears.
Stocks: Recent declines aside, I think there are lots of smart people who are in the process of either cashing out, making bigger bets, or just plain and simple “Looking for some new shit” that hasn’t been hyped to the moon yet. (With a nod to Musk’s cash cow SpaceX in passing.) Too late on NFTs.
As one reader-forwarded snip advised: Nearly 100 percent of BTC buyers in the past yet have lost 100 percent of their gains – if any. Which has a lot of very smart people asking “Why do they keep buying? Bitcoin has fallen from over $68,800 intraday to the nether-regions of the 16-thousands.
Why do people buy? Not much out there worth buying. I mean think about it.
Housing: Been a kick-ass ride on the way up, but everyone and their grandmother knows that net-cash to seller on close has fallen from record highs to God-awful lows. On a $1.3 million home (basis the old 2.3 percent interest rates) the net to seller has gone from over a mill to down in the $700-thousands now – depending on rate. Losing $400K is not our idea of a “smart move.”
Lot of people agree, so while there is SOME high-end product in hot locations moves, we see (and sense) the first couple of quarters of 2023 will be a mess.
Tech Growth Is Dead: OK, how much bigger than 85-inch TVs do we need? Over time, the move to 8K will be along, but with Taiwan/China relations an open question, how do you play that? We think older technology 4K UHD is fine. There’s a price point to benefit calculation that’s a personal thing. We just think money in the bank is potentially more useful than “blacker blacks and smoother motion frames…”
Video Game Makers? Ever wonder how many people have been killed in virtual realms? Will society have some grand “Aha!” awakening when more virtual people have been killed than (formerly) REAL living ones? Doubt it. But, buying into game makers doesn’t turn my crank.
Stocks: Maybe you’ll get lucky and find a big company like Boeing that has been seriously beaten-up by the MAX mess and quality issues and soar into financial independence on that. But good luck. A year ago, Boeing was trading around $214 while yesterday it was just over *(the very Cessna-sounding) $172.
Boeing, to us, is just one posterchild for the trainwreck of American Industry.
We look at Boeing and see a world leader, locally based (back in their Seattle days), and all flight quality focused. But then a funny thing happened back when I was a reporter up thataway. The company decided to become a financialization.
Corporate moved to Chicago (which speaks volumes in and of itself). The tight cross-fertilization between my friends like Roberto at BCAC (Renton) and the Bigwigs was fractured. In came more accountants and there went flight safety mindsets – beaten away by the flutter of green eyeshade and Ivy League suck-ups. The product quality (predictably) declined (some even crashed). So, it falls to the current generation of company stewards to find a way out of this escape room aero drama.
Boeing is still a Great company. But like almost every other company we think about (Twitter, Apple, Microsoft…even the foodies like ADM) – they all seem to have “issues” that give us the willies.
ADM – great company. But it’s basically around the same price as a year-ago. Mid $90’s. What concerns us about anything in the foods area is the damn Biden sanctions blowback mess. Input costs are going up and with our Strategic energy Reserves drawn well-down by the Idjit in Chief, hard for us to see how any of the foodies (or consumer staples) are going to hit much of anything out of the park.
Bonds, maybe? Are you kidding? With the Fed operating a roulette wheel with a six-month lag between Reality and Re-spins, who’s going to buy bonds now when we could “Go Venezuela” tomorrow?
Times like these, there is only one class of investment we like.
This is where you can set yourself up for big future wins, even in a sucky economy.
My eldest daughter is finishing her advanced degree. Good move. Banks future earning power.
Youngest daughter (and hubby) are on plan financially to get their own place – and I think they understand about how real estate prices will be coming down as housing prices reconnect with incomes. Two years out?
And son G2 want to build a house this coming year. His thinking has rolled from small minimalist cabin to 900 SF. The other day he was asking about the shop building size here (40×40, so 1,600 SF) so he’s still piecing together how to roll.
Point is: Not one of these (as a parent I have to add) above average IQ kids is off trying to get rich in financial instruments.
Sweat equity where you personally know the Bosss. Please make a note of it.
If you ever have dreams of starting a business, forget it. Instead, find a need and then find some better than other ideas way to address it. Business (success) is a workflow and happy customers, not a paper chasing scam.
Which is what America to our eyes has lost track of. Or, as over in the formerly stable ag sector, it’s what the fools on The Hill have screwed up.
Hell of a partnership between finance and government. Forget the mission (the public interest and protection of assets). Marriage of incompetents. Ask the FTX people how it has worked out.
Just remember: When lumber is cheap? Build a house. When food’s expensive, plant a garden. And if you can’t afford to make ends meet, throw out some of your “necessities.” If you want more money? Do more valuable work. More of the time.
OMA – old man advice – that has withstood the test of time beautifully.
Driving Our Dour View
Was the Election Honest? People are still asking. Caroline Wren on Arizona: “48% Of The Tabulation Centers Went Down Election Day”.
Don’t let the door slap you on the ass on the way out Dept: Pelosi to Leave US House Leadership but Remain in Congress. People in California aren’t very bright…
I won and the votes don’t matter rears its ugly head again: Boebert Claims Election Victory Despite No Call, Likely Recount.
(I said) PEOPLE IN CALIFORNIA AREN’T VERY BRIGHT: Gavin Newsom’s $98 Billion Surplus Went Bye-Bye. Our back-up consigliere (Century City) is pissed: “Gavin Newsom managed to blow through the much-vaunted California 98 billion dollar budget surplus, with nothing but deficits for the foreseeable fiscal years. Nice work. If you want to bankrupt your government, vote Demorat.” We’ll go one further: Vote Newsome in 2024 to finish off the American Dream.
Consigliere #2 is also frosted by? Oh, stories like ‘Momentous:’ US advances largest dam demolition in history | AP News. Adding (with some judicious lingo cleanup for tender ears): “This in a time of rocketing electricity costs and rising energy costs, not to mention the Demorats always blathering on about “clean energy.” Not only that, but it is going to cost the taxpayers a fortune just to demolish the dams. This is f*cking nuts! This is what happens when you have an election fraud coup d’etat put a senile bribe taker into our White House.” But this won’t become clear until the House gets to work but we’re not even hopeful about that.
Wrong-Way-Joe strikes again! Biden administration tells court Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman is immune from Khashoggi lawsuit.
Need a Free Lesson in Idiot-Speak? US Vice-President Harris tells Asia the US is ‘here to stay’. So, China has been around how long and we’ve been around since when? (See why I pray for Slow Joe’s health?)
War check! Russia hits Ukrainian energy, defence targets; heavy fighting in east | Reuters Well, it IS a war, you know.
Oh Boy! Another beta test is coming: Microsoft releases new Windows 11 build, WSA November 2022 update. No idea how long this one will take to work through installer troubleshootizing.
Let’s talk REAL Climate Change: The Red Planet was once BLUE: Mars was covered by 984ft-deep oceans 4.5 billion years ago.
ATR: Turkey Week Planner
Busy today with planning for our consigliere’s visit next week. Figure he’ll get here Tuesday afternoon. Which leaves the “what do you serve” to someone in Texas who has been sitting in a car since Ohio?
We’re torn between bolillo roll roast beef sandwiches (either with au juice or sliced tom’s and onions) plus a side salad. Or Monte Cristo (turkey, ham, and cheese in a sandwich that’s then dipped in egg batter like French toast and fried up golden that way). Steak fries and a beer, regardless.
Wednesday afternoon/evening will be the (catered) turkey and fixings (for six, but remember there’s a freezer and two cats to feed…).
Thursday will be a prime rib roast. I’ve gotten good at these.
Friday will be slow-cooked lasagna, garlic bread and a glass of paisano.
Torn between the last meal being grill cooked fajitas or something more traditional (chicken picata with a splash of Cointreau in it). Or, we could axe up another prime rib roast and slice up mushrooms and get out the sour cream for beef stroganoff. Old standby maybe? Our legendary meatball-vegetable stew-soup.
Breakfast Sunday prior to driving back north will involve eggs, au gratin potatoes, and link sausage, with a fresh pot of coffee and thermos for the road trip home. We wish the visit could be longer, but he’s got trials the week after next and “must be present to win” is in play.
Should be fun, though. As a result, columns next week will likely be shorter and charts only on the subscriber side (Peoplenomics.com).
Write when you get rich,