imageEconomic news got you down?  Cheer up Bunkie.

This is National Deviled Egg Day

And if that isn’t far-fetched enough, this is also National Broadcast Traffic Professional’s day.  That’s when we take a moment to honor the men and women in radio, television, and online services who arrange for messages to be jammed down our synapses for up to 18-minutes per hour while at the same time maintaining a five or ten minute separation between competing blood pressure medication ads.

The world is just as insane as it was Friday.  It’s just not as obvious because of the time-switcheroo this weekend to “standard time.”


Somewhere, amidst the aircraft debris field, the din of commercials, while munching a deviled egg sandwich, it occurs to us that the markets will likely open on schedule this morning and when they do, the directionals are pointing down.

There is some fresh Gallup Consumer Spending data to consider…

“Americans’ daily self-reports of spending averaged $92 in October, up $4 from September.

Here’s the problem:  It was $91 in January.  We will round that to a 1.1% increase in spending.

Now, what do you think the M2 money supply has done in that period?  Up 4.156%.  run the numbers yourself.

Now, to repeat our point:  This is how you make it look like prices are going up – but when in fact the underside of the economy is being hollowed out.  3% deflation is lipsticked-up to look like a tiny bit of growth.  If you take enough drugs (sorry, mood enhancers) it don’t matter, right?

Car sales tomorrow.  ADP job numbers Wednesday, Challenger job cuts Thursday and then “offishul” job spin on Friday.

Oil is down half a buck to three-quarters and that should bring the market down later.  Sure, you would think cheap oil would be a capitalist’s dream date.  But, no, they now over-think everything.  If there is not enough demand, the economy must be weak.  If the economy is weak, no one will buy their widgets.  The end of the world threatens..

Meantime, an email from my buddy Roger Reynolds came in.  Roger’s view of the world sounds very much like ours.  How long have I been saying a good start to 2016 but by mid 2017 you will want to have the food supplies and Charmin topped-off because that’s when the economy could hit the fan?

From Roger’s latest:

TRADE WHAT YOU SEE—NOT WHAT YOU THINK!!!!!—–What do folks see???

Elliott wave—-From the May high there has been an a-b-c down for a BIG A.

Then an a-b-c up for a BIG B. Wave C is due to start at any time. In my opinion, it’s important. WHY??? Because market declines look like a big “M”.

The second peak is lower than the first. SO IS THE MARKET MAKING THE SECOND PEAK OF THE “M” NOW??? IF so, then the coming wave “BIG C” down should be very deep. Time—likely 12-18 months.

If you’d like his email newsletter, a note to should get the job done.

Key point:  Roger has has been a trader since paper was newly-invented and we’re both seeing the same sort of thing.  I’ve been calling for an End of Obama Rally for most of 2016.  The downside is when we see “Who follows” will be worse…that person in office should relive the life of Herbert Hoover on the way down. Hooverly Clinton is still in it.

You can see what’s ahead in our reports.  If you’re an Elliott Wave follower, we are in a huge III which just saw the completion of a wave 3 and we are either still in 4 and working sideways to the long-term trend, or we are in 5 now and the pending decline would be the (2) down of 5 of III.  But we shall see.

Meantime, president Obama has presided over a doubling of the national debt to $20-trillion.  Percentage-wise Reagan was worse, if I remember, but compound interest is what kills paper money in the end.  It’s just we don’t know that precise moment, sorry.

While We Wait for the Crack-up Boom…

It may be noted that there has been a swarm of earthquakes out in the Phoenix area.  That’s a sobering thought because we are supposed to be out there in a couple of weeks.

As if that is not enough to worry about, there’s a huge crack developing on a ranch up near Ten Sleep, Wyoming

Looks to be about 30-miles west of I-25 that runs from Casper up to Sheridan – and 55 miles, or so southwest of Sheridan. On  the back side of the Rockies northwest of Casper.

If you’re a reader up there with local knowledge, the most important question of all is what is the orientation of this thing.  If it is north-south, then it would seem like the West is breaking off from the mid-continent – although it’s far too early to impute that from available data – yet. 

We have flown over that country a couple of times and it’s the eastern slopes of the Rockies through there.  Most of the land runs about 4,000-5,000 feet of elevation and there are deep canyons that come down the eastern slopes of the mountains.  We found some pretty good down-canyon winds up around Ft. Smith. 

When land like this in the middle of the continent starts to move, we pay close attention.

We also start to look at railroad derailments.  Like last week’s in Pennsylvania…or one this weekend in Chicago.  Alone, they don’t mean much, but if we see a lot of derailings taking place, then the worry indicator would move up a notch.

Difficult things to think about, but I remember back to the other day when Elaine said (out of the blue) “…we’ll probably have an earthquake…”  Meantime, a lot of people have reported increases in woo-woo type events – odd dreams and the like.   And the number of comments on our discussion has almost doubled in the past several weeks.

Something is afoot…we just can’t say what, yet.

Conspiracy Theory of the Day

Everyone on the planet by now has heard about how a Russian plane crashed this weekend killing all aboard in Egypt.

Here’s an interesting conspiracy for you to ponder:  Could this have been a payback for MH-17?  Or was it just the bomb of Middle East crazies (no shortage of ‘em, notice?) who are ticked-off at Russia for kicking it in Syria?

The truth of the matter is above either of our pay grades.

Putin on Climate

Thinks there is not enough data yet and it has a smell to it.

Meantime, NASA says the Antarctic is gaining ice…so much for the mania for a while.  First good heat wave, it’ll come back.

We trust the the climate-mongers will live to their motto:  Never let a few facts get in the way of a good fund raiser.

Meantime, Bill Gates says capitalism can’t save us from climate change. 

What we want to know is whether it can save us from Blue Screens of Death (BSOD’s).  Can we start there?