A Trump Turn at Hand?

While we piddle a bit in the market, the real art of making money belongs to those who master the art of timing.  A deeper discussion in this morning’s Coping section following this.

The question we can broadly ask this morning is a Trump Trend Change at hand?

There are several reasons to believe this may be the case:

First, there is the Fox News report that “Susan Rice requested to unmask names of Trump transition officials, sources say...” which is mainly not reported by the anti-Trump media.

And if you’re not clear on how bias works in media, the report here should help clarify who’s where.

And now, Rand Paul is calling for Rice to be called to testify under oath.

This revelation might bolster public belief in Trump because “wiretap Trump Tower” would be essentially correct, if proven.  So we are not surprised the MSM buries the story.  Not in the least.

A second major move is the Trump administration, via attorney general Jeff Sessions, is ordering a Justice review of all Obama instigated police department reform  agreements.

There’s a strong feeling in America than local policing is a local matter. 

The Justice Department separately is also making it clear that companies may not discriminate against U.S. workers.

Perhaps not a direct consequence, but U.S. manufacturing did expand again in March according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

Ye t another point put on the board Monday was the president earmarking his first quarter’s salary to the National Park Service.

When you hear critics of Trump, ask them how many democratic presidents served for $1 per year.  Some would have still be overpaid, as we see it.  These developments seem likely to play well with the base.

Last, but not least:  Republicans are suddenly back on the stick about healthcare reform again with new legislation being kicked around.

To be sure, our list of “usual suspects” in the media will be tripping all over themselves to paint healthcare reform as a disaster for the sick, rather than as massive payoff to the insurance industry,  but we prefer to wait and see what is actually passed by the House and Senate before getting too worked up.

So the point?

Well, back to the idea of “inflection points” – that moment in sports where the ball changes hands and one team goes on to win.

This is not to say an inflection point is at hand, but it is to remind ourselves that one may be at hand.

While there is a track for the S&P 500 to fall another 100 points, a couple of quick “turn-overs” to borrow the sports phrase, could change the dynamics of the game very quickly in here.

We ask every morning: Where’s the inflection point…and today is as good a day as any to be asking.

International Trade

Press release du jour, please?

“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.6 billion in February, down $4.6 billion from $48.2 billion in January, revised. February exports were $192.9 billion, $0.4 billion more than January exports. February imports were $236.4 billion, $4.3 billion less than January imports.

The February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $4.6 billion to $65.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of less than $0.1 billion to $21.4 billion.

You want optics?  We got optics…

An hour before the open, the Dow was looking to  open down 60 points.

Factory orders will be out at 10 Eastern. ADP March hiring data tomorrow morning and that’s where markets might begin to move.  Which way?  Standing by…

Something we haven’t mentioned for a good while is the Baltic Dry Ships index.  Stands at 1,282 – about twice what it was five years ago.  So yes, trade demand continues.

Thumbing Through Press Releases

This one caught my eye – deals with HELOC shopping:

CHERRY HILL, N.J., April 3, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Although the Fed’s recent interest rate hike signals renewed confidence in our economy and job market, many homeowners and home equity line of credit (HELOC) borrowers are questioning how this increase will impact their loans. According to recent research from TD Bank, America’s Most Convenient Bank®, both current and potential borrowers put interest rates at the top of their lists as a deciding factor when it comes to taking out a loan.

Among the roughly 1,350 homeowners surveyed nationally in early March for TD Bank’s second annual Home Equity Sentiment Index, nearly half (46 percent) of respondents said interest rates were the most influential factor in taking out a HELOC. This is in comparison to all other options, including fees, loan amount, draw period length and even trust in their lender.

And here’s an odd one:  Boom times ahead for licorice?

According to a new market report published by Transparency Market Research, “Global Licorice Extracts Market (By Form Powder, Semi-fluid/Paste and Block, By Type Pharmaceutical Grade, Food Grade and Feed Grade, By Application Pharmaceutical, Tobacco, Food and Beverage and Others) – Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2017 2025” was valued in terms of revenue at USD 1,700.0 million in 2016 and is expected to reach USD 2,393.9 million by the end of the forecast period 2025, growing at a CAGR of 4.0% from 2017 to 2025.

Licorice root is used in making the extract, while the hard woody plant is pulped and boiled to further refine the content. Licorice is the root of the licorice (glycyrrhiza glabra) plant from which a sweet flavor is extracted and used in various industries as a sweetening agent. In addition, it also offers various health benefits by acting as an antiviral, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial, and hepato-protective agent. Licorice extracts find huge application in food items, tobacco, beverages, herbal medicines, pharmaceutical industry, and a variety of skin care products. The market is segmented on the basis of product form, type, and application. The global market for licorice extracts is anticipated to expand at a considerable rate during the forecast period owing to an increased demand for them in various end user industries due to their natural origin.

Has us eyeing the south 16 acres – better crop than Southern Pines?

Internal Migration to Arizona?

Note from Census to tuck away:

“Maricopa County, Ariz., replaced Harris County, Texas, as the county with the nation’s highest annual population growth, according to population estimates released today.”

The Dirty War

The L.A. Times reports this morning upwards of 60 people being killed in an apparent nerve gas attack in Syria.

We have to wonder if there isn’t some “messaging” going on in background not far from the public’s view?

I ask because of the St. Petersburg metro attack in Russia that is being blamed on a “suicide bomber” with up to 15 being killed.

Coincidence – or a tit-for-tat?  When the players are big enough, the front of a dirty war may be up to 24,901 miles in length.

More coffee?  SSDD.

13 thoughts on “A Trump Turn at Hand?”

  1. “Last, but not least: Republicans are suddenly back on the stick about healthcare reform again with new legislation being kicked around.”


    This is why I voted for trump.. he is all about doing what he said he was going to do.. gives up his salary to the parks department.. and the negotiator in chief busy at work to make a bipartison deal.
    then you hear the news.. Ryan Giving the party seven million of his contributions.. Hmmm interesting that that comes at the heals of everyone questioning congresses ethics because of to many gifts from lobbyists.. hmm.. interesting.Hmm.. the other thing.. Is the puppet masters of congress don’t like to loose a true fix of the healthcare industry would in my opinion require putting some of the regulations that were deregulated during the Reagan Administration that started the greed roll and the drop off away from being insured.. then to make it illegal to discriminate. illegal to price gouge, open the borders , let people negotiate or purchase their pharmaceuticals from sources outside our usa.. ( hmm they are made outside the usa why should the citizens be the ones to pay the highest prices to pay for their research and give them grants for research.. seems to me it is like double dipping the old system to make more profit)
    then take off the mandate that you must have insurance.. interesting situation.. back in the early eighties.. my six month premiums for liability for one of my cars was 60.00 full coverage was 120.00 after the deregulation of the insurance industry.. my bill went up six times.. the day they deregulated fuel.. I was tired.. on my way home and knew I needed gas but thought heck prices are 67.9 that isn’t anything special.. I will wait till morning.. got home sat down for supper watching the evening news and Ronny was on the prompter saying he deregualted it on the open market this will let the oil industries negotiate prices without restrictions so they could charge us less.. I was thinking at the time.. Yeah I am for that.. Yeah.. next morning I pulled into the pump.. 109.9… I about fell over.. it dropped down to a dollar a couple days later but hasn’t been there since..
    about the same time they seized and added the social security money and medicare money to the general budget same thing they would stabilize and offer the people more security. interesting that today people on social security are viewed as leaches on the system.. where it is interesting is that wages have only gone up approximately two percent a year.. gas goes up to five dollars a gallon.. your employer doesn’t’ rush out to equalize that money.. granted Reagan did start the EIC tax credit with the full knowledge that it is the middle class and lower class of employees that need the money to spend to equalize the economy..but with a top wage of around twelve dollars an hour.. ( my old position still only has a thirteen dollar maximum wage and they still start people out at eight) there has to be a limit.. you build your pyramid with a strong base the top will flow up maybe smaller but it will.. by toppling all your blocks on the top tier will only cause the tower to fall..
    a simple strategy taught to five year olds seems to have eluded the upper echelon of wage earners.. some regulation is required.. the same deregulations is what brought our country down from one of the best with the healthiest populations to one of the worst.. we need reform but unless there is a limitation in what the puppet masters can give it won’t ever happen.Trust me there isn’t a blue sky there has to be a ceiling no matter what the puppet masters try to tell you.

  2. And Obama’s courting of Iran’s Mullah’s and the Muslim Brotherhood is different how?

    BTW Jon – Not an unemployed trump supporter here. In fact, never had had one day of unemployment since age 15 (now 57). I think you progressives project your own economic situation on to others.

    My guess is that most of the Donald’s supporters are employed and probably tired of carrying those who don’t work………

  3. I’m a tail end baby boomer. I often wondered how my parents could ignore the systemic institutional racism – separate but equal and all. They were complacent. What’s that saying about evil persevering when good men sit idly by? I’m embarrassed to say that my parents were on the wrong side of history.

    I think republicans that are being misdirected by Trump down the rabbit hole of ‘wiretapps’ and ignoring Russian cyber warfare will also be found to be on the wrong side of history.

    • My bet is your parents put their trust in the Dems for the solution to racism. Or they were screaming racists cuz as we all know, those are the only 2 alternatives. Maybe they believed that the programs and war on poverty would solve all of that. That the “professionals” both political and academic, had this all figured out and were doing what was necessary. People complain that Repubs are all about money but Dems want to throw money at everything so if I givem money, it’ll get fixed. They may have paid their taxes for the programs and believed it was being handled, corrected, however slowly. As far as Trump and Russia; I would have to believe that the Russians understood the electoral college better than the Dems; had a better polling than 98% of US polls and Dem/media polls, here, in the US; understood that there was an untapped racist multi million voter block that they knew how to court over social media; the same ignorant racist white rural person who isn’t tech savy or social media addicted. Add to that, I would have to believe that Trump commiserated with Russians for our end somewhere down the road while supporting the population’s right to bear arms, significant arms cuz erry despot knows that the way to take over a country is arm the people you mean to suppress and secure the boarders from invaders, right? Now, do I believe Russia was doing that @crap? Yep. In collusion with Trump? Nope. Having business contacts with a foreign country as a businessman is expected. Having business with a foreign country as a elected official, I get is not expected – see Clintons. JMHO

    • I am sorry wave.. I am on Trumps side.. there is pro’s and con’s for social programs.. Most people by human nature hate to have to ask for the programs.. through the years I made it a point to seek out someone that falls through the cracks and help them out during the lowest part of theirs by giving them a hand up not a hand out.. ( someone did that for me once upon a time and I am paying it forward) I can tell you that the direction that we were headed had nothing but a cliff to go over. the whole policy is similar to someone elses..
      “History itself is the presentation of the course of a Folk’s struggle for existence.
      I deliberately use the phrase struggle for existence here because, in truth, that struggle for daily bread, equally in
      peace and war, is an eternal battle against thousands upon thousands of resistances, just as life itself is an eternal
      struggle against death. For men know as little why they live as does any other creature of the world. this is just a small excerpt from a book by Adolph Hitler” https://archive.org/stream/ZweitesBuch-AdolfHitlersSecretBook/ZweitesBuch-adolfHitler-1928-hitlersSecretBook_djvu.txt

      The scariest part of the book is that You see it in the daily news all the time. before the trump administration was voted in we were heading there at breakneck speeds. Instead he has brought a little stability. He was voted in by the people that see the path we were headed on and that we have a servery broken political system that seems to be run by special interest groups. Heck congress doesnt’ write the bills. they refuse to read them.. they read the intro sales paragraph then use that as their sales pitch.. all the time.. first get people dependent on social programs for their daily bread.. then take it away and give it to the wealthiest twenty nine percent.. and openly let the people know this is what you are going to do.. this gives you the sentiment of the people to imprison that twenty nine percent with the full support of the masses and propel the one percent into the stratosphere.. Does any of that sound eerily familiar to what was going on before Trump.. Trump on the other hand is seeking to knock down the one percent and put the people back to work earning their daily bread the proper way. He is a negotiator and is really trying to do exactly what he set out to do. Instead we have done everything we can to disrupt and force out point of interest down other countries throats all in the name of getting some more cash for the who.. the one percent.. I totally believe he was wire tapped.. and of course they will say no we wouldn’t do that I didn’t take the last cookie mom as crumbs fall from the shirt….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NowpCswP40c&feature=share



      the solution is to let the people be constructive.. to feel pride in who they are and what they have accomplished through hard work without feeling like they are in a vise.. to treat everyone with respect. if you put a bunch of little kids in a room with toys.. they will play together.. it is the idiots that are their parents and their environment that destroy their self worth.. put them under the thumbs.. if we would just let trump do his job he could pull us away from the precipice that we face..
      again that is all only my opinion and my wife tells me often.. my opinion is my opinion and no one cares more about my opinion than me..

  4. Think about how disgusting it is: 85,000 H1 B Visa holders allowed in within one week. That is 85,000 Americans with no chance to get those jobs. SKILLED and EDUCATED and QUALIFIED Americans SHUT OUT OF WORKING IN AMERICA in the name of globalism. Otherwise known as selling out America to the lowest and highest bidders. Yet, where can Americans go to take HIGH and Middle Paying JOBS from other countries citizens by the thousands disclosed and MILLIONS undisclosed? WHERE? No where! This disgusting fraudulent globalist agenda to destroy America with multi-cultural diversity and a cultural destroying invasion. All those dual citizen mexicans/indians/everywhere elser’s will just go back to their home countries when America collapses, where will Americans go, the ones with no passports and no dual citizenship status?

    • BS and you know it. More sheet from the troll. Green sheet this time. I, and millions of Americans experienced it. The fact that you continue to post your blatant ignorance shows everyone your true lack of intelligence and ignorance of facts. Ole trolling Jon the con; just a little of your disrespect back at ya.

    • I can tell you when I was down and out and had to take whatever was available.. I cleaned blood tanks.. Yes disgusting isn’t the word.. I scrapped fat off of road kill so the furs could be sold.. another choice job that brings a smell back to mind that I can actually smell it now.I tried to get the blood tank job on the dirtiest jobs show.. I am sure he wouldn’t do that one LOL.. a true experience not quickly forgotten. not to mention I scooped hot dirt.. yes Hot dirt from a spill. and no one told us that it was hot dirt we scooped it they hauled it away.. after we were finished i went out for drinks with some of the supervisors and I asked them why the clean hazmat suits.. that is when they mentioned it.. I said to them then.. well you could have tossed me a suit.. LOL.. when my wifes job was cut due to medicare cuts.. ( and they were trying to get me off of the insurance policy also before that) she was willing to clean animal cages day labor that is when we found out that fifty and above to sixty five.. you are discriminated with and are not hire-able if you have an education they won’t hire you for a lower paying position a hard lesson learned and because of the age they know you won’t be there very long..
      To maintain a person’s dignity you will do what ever you can to make a living and keep your head over the brim people just want to keep their dignity.. I hear all the time the people that use the system but everyone I have known that has had to use the programs have told me just how bad they make them feel and the loss of dignity is almost unbearable for some.. most of my life I worked twelve to sixteen hour days seven days a week.. a day of vacation was an eight hour day.. in the eighties I had to work six jobs just to stay afloat while refugees got full time hours and a multitude of help I worked that hard because I didn’t want to be on the programs.. and the refugees didn’t have to pay taxes and got back everything they paid in the company paid in and even got the tax credit.. one guy got a check for more than I grossed working six jobs….
      American Citizens are willing to work so saying the only people that will take a job is someone from another country is just not so..

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