Russia Plays “the Nuclear Card”

In an interview on RT (Russia Today) Russia’s head of their Foreign Relations Committee, Mikhail Margelov made several interesting points about the current chaos playing out in Ukraine. There were a couple of points which deserve to be passed on as “thinking points” because they may be telling us something about how future events will play out. First, he expressed concern about the number of nuclear power plants that are operating in Ukraine (six) and the number of reactors (17). Recalling that this is the region of Chernobyl, he said Russia (which is obviously downwind) has legitimate security concerns. But in terms of the basis for the conflict, he said that Russia was not to fault.

Beyond Bitcoin: Transition to the Star Trek Economy?

Just posted for our www.peoplenomics.com subscribers: As Russia puts troops on alert this morning, we have our “Phasors locked on stun” this morning as we consider how the Star Trek economy worked. There are some very interesting possibilities, especially when we see the arrival (and momentary decline) of the new cryptocurrencies.

Home Prices: Losing Momentum

It looks like our often-stated “double dip” might get legs based on the latest housing index reported out this morning by S&P/Dow Jones in their Case-Shiller report:

New York, February 25, 2014 – Data through December 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that National home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%. This represents a slight improvement over last quarter’s annual rate of 11.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the National Index declined 0.3%.

In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates. Chicago showed its highest year-over-year return since December 1988. Dallas set a new peak and posted its largest annual gain since its inception in 2000. Denver declined 0.1% and is now 0.7% below its all-time index level high set in September 2013.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S.

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Bitcoins: Not Too Big To Fail

Reader Note:  We’ll post an update when the Case Shiller/S&P Housing data comes out this morning.  Likely before the market opens…so if you’re an early reader, drop by again…

You can see in this morning’s headlines one of the reasons that I’ve been skeptical of Bitcoins.  Oh, sure, the idea of a “pure” currency, unloaded by 100 years of debt sounds altruistic and all, but when comes down to cases, the Federal Reserve is not going to bail out a Bitcoin operation, but they will bail out banks at the drop of a hat.

Is there a lesson here?

The reason we begin here is that after multiple (successful) hacking attacks, Mt. Gox has gone by the wayside, or at least so it seems based on report like “Survival of Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox in doubt” as reported by CNN Money.

Still, there are other Bitcoin exchanges in operation and over at the www.bitcoincharts.com site you can find quotes from other coineries.  Hit the “charts” tab.

I’ve mentioned in the past that Bitcoins are doing something of a rhyme on the 1634-1637 experience in tulip bulb prices in Holland.

May I offer you a starting point for some excellent reading if you are trying to sort out what to expect from Bitcoins going forward? 

You may have never heard of Aswath Damodaran but he teaches corporate finance and valuation at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

One of his best books of general interest if you’re learning about investing is available from Amazon:  “The Little Book of Valuation: How to Value a Company, Pick a Stock and Profit (Little Books. Big Profits) “  Easy read, packed with good info.

Back to point:  If you go poking around Damodaran’s website, not only will you find a treasure-trove of fine articles summarizing years of study and research, but his analysis of the tulip bubble (and pricing) is very much on point when you’re trying to brain out where this whole bitcoin “thing” could be leading.

As I reread his paper this morning, it struck me that we may be about in Phase 3 of the Bitcoin bubble.  And that should be followed by Phase 4 which he called the “aftermath.”

And what does an aftermath look like?  To pull a quote from his paper – on tulip prices, remember…

“In the aftermath of the bursting of the bubble, you initially find investors in complete denial. In fact, one of the amazing features of post-bubble markets is the difficulty of finding investors who lost money in the bubble. Investors either claim that they were one of the prudent ones who never invested in the bubble in the first place or that they were one of the smart ones who saw the correction coming and got out in time.”

While I still believe that a Federal Reserve-backed digital currency (which would be unladen with debt and automatically taxed through a clearing operation) is still a fine resolution to the two-tier currency problem as the US dollar continues its devaluation process (-3.4% per year on average purchasing power since 1913, including the Great Depression), we can see the evidence accumulating that there is enough computing horsepower being directed at “crypto” currencies, that it may not be possible to evolved an all-electronic system of money at this time.

Of course, the experience of Bitcoin might be incorporated as part of a move to begin licensing the Internet, and the ultimate criminalization of hacking, just as the FCC’s Communications Act of 1934 set up licensing of radio waves (and set up enforcement for what were that era’s “hacker equivalents.”

Sorry if you didn’t get out…but one of these days, the price may drop down to where it’s appealing again.  But then – as I see it – only as a kind of digital tulip; a point I haven’t wavered on since the question first come up.

Reading Damodaran on Bubbles is certainly not a waste of time if you’re trying to keep your non-virtual wallet intact.

Ukraine Delay, Russian Window?

We read this morning how the new “unity” government announcement out of Kiev has been put on hold for a day (longer?).

As the cited story relates, the EU is pressing for quick action.  Reason?  The sooner the EU can lay out a relationship with the new government, the sooner the EU can begin to flex its muscles in the direction of Russia which has, besides a huge agricultural interest in the region, control of the pipelines carrying petroleum products to Europe.

EU leaders were busy funding and promoting the “revolution” in order to seize control of this energy choke point from the Russians and the strategic problem they have is that the longer the Unity group doesn’t get Unified, the strangers the case of the ousted president, which in turn, would give Russia a pretext to march into the power vacuum.

Meantime – and is it related? – we find the timing of the latest exploit aimed as US military veterans to be a particularly odd event.

Go read :”Operation SnowMan: DeputyDog Actor compromises US Veterans of Foreign Wars Website…”

Could this be a sign (under cover of the snowstorm in Washington this month) that there is a cyber skirmish in play and that there’s more to come, all peripherally related to the Russians getting reader for…..for….what?  If anything….

Disposable Americans: NM Radiation Leak

The leak earlier this month of atomic leftovers, including plutonium, that spread a plume of radiation over New Mexico, up over the Texas Panhandle and into the square states, has us wondering again about the honesty and candor of the US nuclear regulators.

A story in the Monday NY Times details what’s going on near the underground storage facility near Carlsbad, New Mexico.

That said, readers reports are starting to come in from downwind areasL’

“My son has been monitoring the radiation here, 20 miles north of Santa Fe and in the past 24 hours our readings have increased just over  50% above the normal background readings that we’ve been getting  on a daily basis for the past year or so since I got the monitor.  My son said he would try to separate the alpha, beta, X and gamma radiation by using shielding techniques he uses for that purpose.”

We’ll pass along the details as they come along, but if you live in that downwind corridor, the rad levels from Carlsbad up through Kentucky will be instructive to watch.

How to Run an Agenda

All of once, over the past month, or so, a series of bills that would allow discrimination over sexual preference (as counter religious beliefs) have been tossed in the hopper in almost a dozen states.  But only in Arizona has the measure been railroaded through by the state GOP and it would legalize discrimination on religious grounds.

And, just to mix even more emotions into this, here we have a political type in Delaware demanding that Phoenix be stripped of its SuperBowl plans

Any minute now, we’re expecting the EU to weigh in on this…

Gaye rights is already been moved into the international sphere with Uganda signing an anti-gay law.  This on top of what Russia, and other countries have done…

IRS – Tea Party Rules

Speaking of running politics, the Obama administration which had been moving IRS to rules that would have kept 501-(C4) groups out of politics is quietly falling apart reports the Washington Times in today’s editions.

All of which is being cast by some as a good move for freedom…but only if you like the eBay-like processes that buy American political outcomes…including the tax exempt pools of money.  It wasn’t just about the Tea Party, although that’s how it has been cast.  It’s about ALL tax exempts…

This is one thing the Obama administration was on the verge of getting right….so it’s going, going….

X-Flares?  Who Cares?

Every so often, the Sun comes out with an X-class flare, but just because they happen from time to time doesn’t mean the end of the world.  Take his one for example:

An X4.9 flare peaked Feb 25 00:49. The event occurred in NOAA AR 1990 (ie returning AR 1967) on the solar East limb.

Solar proton level started to increase with some delay and gradually.

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Coping: Outliers and Oddities in Life (WoWW)

Our trip through the World of Woo-Woo (WoWW) continues this morning with the first note being about the oddity I personally noticed on Monday when I published the “news” section of the UrbanSurvival site.  Specifically this part of yesterday’s report:

“However, if Russia was ever thinking about the HEMP option, that would plunge the West into the dark ages and would give Russia a free hand to rebuild its buffer, you likely could find a similarly risky period since the Cuban Missile Crisis.”

All of which wouldn’t have been noteworthy in the least, except for I happened to notice – just after publishing – this read-out on Windows LiveWriter:

However, if Russia was ever thinking about the HEMP option, that would plunge the West into the dark ages and would give Russia a free hand to rebuild its buffer, you likely could find a similarly risky period since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Which I figured was one hell of a synchronistic wink from Universe about such things,  since (if you had forgotten) was when the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred.  Pretty good for a piece of software to offer that kind of feedback, is it not?

And, as posited in the Monday column, the WoWW is not gone, says reader Patti…

George … Woo-Woo has NOT disappeared. 

Just last week I had two incidents in one day!

1)It was evening and I was doing my usual “after-work” tasks.. picking up kids, going to the market(s) and preparing dinner.  This evening, I entered my car after a third stop and noticed that my inside car lights would not turn off; obviously, it was because I hadn’t closed the door properly.  But no, it wasn’t that or even that my electronic system was malfunctioning – somehow, the light switch on the inside roof of the car got switched on. Hmmm?  I smiled and turned the switch back to the “off” position.  My  problem was resolved.

2)When I got home, I carried the groceries into the house and placed them along with my purse and keys on the kitchen counter.  After I put away all the groceries, I went to place my purse in the bedroom and noticed that my keys were nowhere to be found.  I cleaned out my purse three times!  Not there, removed everything from the counter to make certain they weren’t “hiding” (inadvertently getting shoved under something).  Still, no place to be found.  Must have looked for an hour – my house got really clean!  Well, as soon as I gave up, I was standing in the kitchen talking with my son, turned around and there they were…. Sitting right out in the middle of the counter all by themselves.  I asked my son if he put them there – he looked at me like I was nuts (he’s 18) and when my daughter was asked, her only response was “Did you pray to your angels?”   Of course… I did.

The universe had a really good time with me that day!

A CLASSIC example of things disappearing and reappearing.  So I’ve advised our Canadian reader who had the disappearing wine rack parts to look in on them again later on today.  They may be back from “vacation.”

While that’s a damn fine report, here’s one from reader Ken that’ll be a hard one to beat:

Boy do I have a good one.. My wife baked cookies the other day.. she filled up the cookie jar.

So today she leaves for work and the two boys are here and we sit down for cookies..

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All Eyes on Russia

With the apparent victory of the US/EU/West-backed uprising in Ukraine the most tantalizing question is whether Russia will respond.  The main descriptive words being played on the BBC this morning seem to be “Nervous uncertainty” which certainly captures the moment.  But the mood goes well past the Ukrainian borders…

As I have reported for a number of weeks, with the closing of the Sochi Games, a kind of “handcuffs” come off the Russians from today forward and so with the ousted president calling “Coup!” it will be the next 96-hours – or never – for the Russians to make their move.  Say Friday or Saturday at the latest.

Our war gaming expert “warhammer” has some thoughts…

Czarist minded Vlad Putin is not a happy man today.

Read “Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin’s worst nightmare…”

The ugly (to an oligarch) emergence of democracy in neighboring Ukraine puts a hitch in Vlad’s get along. Deposed Ukrainian President Yanukovych, a Putin puppet, insured that the Ukraine kept in step with Russia, particularly with regard to rejecting entry into the EU. Yanukovych instead planned to move lock-step with Putin in joining Czar Vlad’s emerging Euro-Asian economic union, despite Yanukovych’s former vassals and serfs strongly desiring membership in the western-focused EU.

Vassals/Serfs 1, Yanukovych/Putin 0.

It would prove an arrogant display of power for Putin to provide armed military assistance to remaining Yanukovych loyalists. Instead, most political pundits believe Putin will put tremendous and immediate economic pressure on the newly liberated Ukrainian government. The “outside looking in” EU then risks direct confrontation with Czar Vlad should it wish to assist, something Putin is betting the pacifist EU deeply wishes to avoid. As the economic hardships mount in the Ukraine, Putin’s Eurasian economic union plans will look more and more digestible.

Will the EU jettison the unsavory situation in the Ukraine just as the U.S.

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Coping: With a New Theory of Woo-Woo

The good news, such as it is on a Monday, is that the WoWW (World of Woo-Woo) is back.  This morning we not only have some fine reports, but in addition we’ve got a new theory to put forth to explain the phenomena…

First the reports:  We’ll start with this one from Canada:

A few days ago, we bought a small wine rack. It was a DIY kit. We laid all the parts out on the table and made sure the kit was complete. It was, and assembly began. When we got to the end and were adding cross base support we discovered one of the pieces was missing. We spent some time looking everywhere for it, even checking under couch cushions and in the linings of pieces in the area. Nothing turned up. Both cross braces were in the kit as I had held both of them and test fit them in dry run. I am expected the part to re-appear sometime soon. I’ll let you know.

Then from reader Andrew:

My beautiful mom (83) passed back on 2/5.

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Peoplenomics: Ukraine’s Economic Future

We take a closer look at what’s ahead for Ukraine this morning, given that there has been an agreement, followed by protesters taking Kiev overnight. It’s a timely matter following on the heels of our Wednesday report on commonalities of civil wars, the potential for it in former Soviet buffer states, as well as here in the USA. We’ll also point out how the EU is stealing the foundations of democracy. But first coffee and a few headlines, plus a check of port traffic (in order to pierce the veil of mumbo-jumbo surrounding the state of the economy) and a very telling chart that argues this economic cycle peaked in early 2000 and continues tracking to expectations… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!

Backwards Friday

Note that the Coping Section didn’t post correctly this morning so the Friday news/market section is under the Coping section instead of the other way around. Even coffee doesn’t fix servers…

Coping: Skill-Passing

I want to share a couple of very interesting conversations I had yesterday with two friends of mine on the topic of parenting.

One of the fellows is mid-40’s, lives here in East Texas, and is in the process (who to say this?) of “waking up” to the new reality that is beginning to appear on the internet.  He’s backing away from the old-style politics and is moving ahead as one of us “NuThinkers.”  While he’s got a ways to go, he’s very bright and making good progress.

Somehow, we got onto the subject of parenting (he’s got a teenaged son) and he spends a good deal of time with him, going to school sporting events and so forth.

And then we got onto the topic of gardening and doing things around the ranch.

“Say, did your dad ever teach you survival skills?” I asked him.

Oh, sure,  He taught me how to hunt, how to field dress a deer, put in a garden, and do construction around our ranch,” he told me.  There was a warm look to him as he recounted some of his learnings at his father’s side.

I dug into my pocket and dug out my pocket knife, which I handed to my friend who looked at it with some appreciation.  “Hey, this is an old Case knife, isn’t it?”

I then recounted the many adventures I had been on with my late father; times during which that old knife played a key role.  Mostly, when we were fishing in early Augusts for king salmon on Puget South in the Seattle area.  That was the knife that I learned to use to “plug cut” herring so they would flip over when slowly trolling, in a way that seems irresistible to salmon.

“Let me ask you,” I continued, “Have you taught your son how to field dress a deer, put in a garden, or bang 16-penny nails?”

After a moment’s thought he replied to the effect “No, now that you mention it…guess I’d never thought about it that way before…

I then offered some encouragement for him to do that, noting that it’s not just the time we spend with our kids that helps them later in life.  It’s also the things we do with them. 

It’s in the working at a task together that builds the teamwork and let’s our kids see how we think, not just about something as shallow as sports, but how to nurture plans, put meat on the table, or solve a carpentry problem.  (Which is where I learned some very creative combinations of swear-words as my thumb told me that my 16-penny nail-pounding skills could use some work.)

I felt pretty good about that conversation…and I’m damn near certain there’s going to be one more young person coming up with a whole assortment of new skills that he didn’t have prior to this week.

Then I happened to chat with a friend up in the northeast.  Same kind of age-range, son is active in sports, except in stead of tennis team in high school, his son is seriously into hockey.

Oh, sure, he helped me finish out the lower level of our house,” my friend up there told me.  “He was my little slave.  I taught him how to measure, cut wood, nail…you know, the whole thing….”  His pride and pleasure at the recall came through the phone loud and clear.

Just wondering….”  I said as we moved onto other topics.

But those two conversations seemed particularly important to me.  Because it into perspective the idea that it’s not the amount of time you spend with a child that forms them.  It’s in the task-sharing so that they can get a sense of manhood, womanhood if female, and personhood in general that’s key.

It’s something to think about as another weekend shows up.  Watching television together (South Park, or Simpson’s reruns, anyone?) may count as “clock hours” to borrow a concept from education.  But is there any practicum being passed along?

Think of it as “skill-passing.”  It doesn’t have to take a lot of time.  But it does take some awareness and intent.  Thought I’d mention it.

WoWW: MIA?

Something very odd has happened around here.  We used to get a fair number of World of Woo-Woo (formerly WuJo)_ reports.  Encounters with the odd, out of place, and just unexplainable cases of how the Universe was not following its hard and fast rules completely.

The WoWW cases had involved things disappearing one place, show up another, and other phenomena – like missing time, as well.

But here’s the odd part:  All these things seem to have gone missing.  I haven’t had a decent WoWW report in the past three weeks, or so.

If you sent in a report, please resend it.  Otherwise, we will be forced (however reluctantly) to conclude that WoWW is something that comes and goes in cycles…

Send your reports to george@ure.net and put WoWW in the subject line, if you would, so my email router puts it in the right pile… thanks.

Yet Another Prepping Thought

As the situation in Ukraine heats up, this from reader Gregory is interesting:

George,

Your repeated admonitions regarding Putin’s likely action of taking-names-and-kicking-ass post Sochi has caused me to add an unusual item to my SHTF preps:  a Russian-language course!  Okay: maybe I’ve seen RED DAWN too many times [the original – since the remake has us squaring off with the N Koreans] or my paranoia is finally raging unchecked… but what the Hell?  I’ve always wanted to learn a 2nd language anyway… I just figured it would be Italian.  What it won’t be is Korean -that language is just as difficult as those who scream it in Pyongyang.  On the other hand, lead is still the greatest single translator around, isn’t it?  I just think it’s more civil to yell  “I’m gonna’ blow your ####ing head off in about 10 seconds…”  in my aggressor’s native tongue.    It would show I care…

You might want to consider Chinese, though…or Spanish

The Great Airplane Scandal

Reader Bill reports he’s scandalized by my admission that this may be the year that we sell our dependable (and fund) old Beechcraft.

I clearly remember that at one point not too long ago your Beechcrate was the primary method for saving your butt if things really go bad bad.  You were going to jump into the Crate and FLY AWAY to a better place.
Now I did not endorse that strategy because there were too many problems, like for example if you were trying to escape radiation, there might be radiation everywhere.  And of course, what makes you think there will be a safe place to land within your possible flight zone?
Still, I am scandalized that you are glibly putting aside a fun and useful part of your life over perceived money savings.  Hmmmmmmm.  Will Ham Radio go next ?   Methinks your life will be pretty boring down the road if you divest yourself of all your toys…

To begin with, the old Beech is sitting, as we speak, in the hangar, fueled up, pre-flighted, oil checked, everything set to take off and fly anywhere in the country at the drop of a hat.  My medical’s current, health is good…it’s just time that matters.

On  this, the reality is that I looked at the logbook since we finished up our big trip last summer and I haven’t put 20-hours on the plane.  In fact, so far this year, I’ve managed to fly 7/10th’s of one hour…just time to go up, do three full-stop landings, taxi over to top off the fuel, and get back to work.

Unless I come up with a block of time to do some serious flying – like going up to Alaska, which we’ve kicked around, or going out and flying the Bahamas and down to the Dominican Republic, I might only put 20-30 hours on the plane this year. 

The only corner of the country we’ve missed so far is Key West, and we have talked about that, too.

I’m not the only one in my age group who is thinking about when’s the right time to leave the hangar.  A long-time friend has a great airplane (JetProp, which is a Piper Malibu conversion to a Pratt turbo prop power plant) who is thinking about the same thing.  It’s not the flying…it’s the other stuff that goes with it.  In his case that includes the addition of instrument currency requirements and, because he’s a turboprop driver, a lot more recurrent training to keep insurance reasonable.

Our insurance is fairly cheap for the airplane ($650 a year) and it’s gets us anywhere in less than half the time that driving does.  BUT, since I don’t have time to finish (or keep) an instrument rating current, weather plays more of a factor.  If the weather is crappy, we simply don’t go.  

There are plenty of stories around, like this one, about people who don’t keep the “rust off” their flying skills.  You have to fly in order to be good…and that takes practice.

A number of years ago, a cousin of mine lost part of his leg (below the knee) when it was off motorcycle riding.  He had to lay the bike down and he paid the price.  That’s why such events are called “accidents.”

That was one of the factors when I decided to give up my Yamaha Virago shaft-drive and call it good after about 75,000 miles of incident-free riding.

Similarly, I lived on a sailboat and sailed pretty much everything from southern Alaska down to the Mexican border with one minor grounding that didn’t require assistance, or do any damage, being the only issue in 11-years and 15,000 miles of sailing.

Another lesson from my old Porsche 930:  I know it is not possible to drive at 2-3-times the posted speed limit very often and not get thrown in jail for speeding, or to slam into a deer that doesn’t have its ears tuned-in to an approaching air cooler grabbing gears… 

I’d actually hit a deer back in about 1987 when I was driving my old ‘73 911-E about 25-miles north of Portland, one night.  Damn deer had jumped a fence and came out of nowhere.  The car was repairable ($6k) but I was driving the speed limit at the time.  I remember that one clearly.

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Market: Crash Date Calls

In spite of various market predictors putting up charts espousing a replay of 1929 is imminent, a more measured view of long wave economics argues that we won’t have an economic collapse/crash until April 17, or thereabouts.   We’ll get into the “blood and guts” of why this weekend for subscribers.

But the main thing to be aware of this morning is that on our Peoplenomics side of things,  I developed a trading model.  And for a number of weeks it has been saying “new highs ahead in the short term.”  Advice I promptly discounted thinking the methodology that I’d put into the model was somehow flawed, has been amazingly right.

Even if the present rally in global markets peters out right here, the earliest likely market crash window would not come until around April 17th.

This timing suggests a lot of things…and one biggy is that we should see an agreement among the EU/US/Russia to begin talks on the future of Ukraine.  That would likely be struck in the next week or two.

And if that gooses the markets to new (nominal, but not purchasing power parity) highs, then the crash window could be delayed into May.

And here we are, on option expiration day for the month, and the Consumer Price Index hasn’t gone roaring to the moon.  And The Conference’ Board’s Leading Economic Indicators  is just about as rosy as could be:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.9 percent increase in November.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to fluctuate on a monthly basis, but the six-month average growth rate has been relatively stable in recent months,  which suggests that the economy will remain resilient in the first half of 2014 and underlying economic conditions should continue to improve,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Correspondingly, the U.S. Coincident Economic Index, which measures current conditions, has continued rising steadily.”

Markets, globally, seem to agree.

Overnight, the Japanese market “went helium” rising nearly 2.9% and the Chinese chipped in for better than a 3/4 of one percent boost. 

And, it’s carrying over into Europe, as well.  In the early going there, small gains were being reported in all three major exchanges – England, France, and Germany.

Despite this, our proprietary Global Aggregate Index was holding in the vicinity of  29,116.  In order for us to get comfortable with getting seriously long, the Aggregate Index would need to beat the recent high  29,234.27 that was set the week ending January 24th.

Otherwise, there’s a fair-to-middling chance that the markets are doing a classic double-top formation and from that, a major decline would be possible. 

Most of that is likely to be determined not in today’s options settlement, but in how market participants reposition and hedge their bets next week and beyond.  And that, in turn, should hinge on developments in Ukraine.

With the Sochi Games wrapping up Sunday, we’ll be keeping a very close eye on how Russia plays events as the window for headline-grabbing (and western-inspired?) “terrorism at the Olympics” comes to a close.  that “judging” story in Sochi  is down in the noise floor around here.  BS and distractions to all but the ardent true believers in sports.

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Ukraine’s Revolution

I assume you know that the death toll in Ukraine’s latest revolution is now heading up toward 50?  This as the peace talks and truce worked out last night blew up on the streets, but there’s good reason for that.

As I’ve been saying, it’s a three-way international power struggle.  The US is backing one (violent) right-winger.  The EU faction of the Enterprise is backing another, and as soon as the Sochi Games wrap up, there will likely be some “friendly” Russians showing up in Ukraine (like advisors showed up in Syria) all countries are failing economically and need the jump-start that only a war can provide.

This isn’t the first time Ukraine has “blown up.”  Here’s the list:

Khmelnytsky Uprising (1648–1657)
Ukrainian War of Independence (1917–1921)
Declaration of Independence of Ukraine (1941)
Orange Revolution (2004–2005)

Meantime, our news analyst fellow up in Winnipeg as be following the tweet storm which accompanies headlines like that other Russia/West showdown hotspot Syria…

The enemy is at the gates. While perhaps a discouraged activity at a dining hour, Twitter browsers can digest the musings of a Western jihadist in Syria, @Fulan2Weet, Sadly there are many more of them. Questions may be answered at the Latvian-based website Ask dot fm/Fulan2Weet. Commentary from @VancouverExpat (“revolution until victory”) is maybe no less disquieting. Should the traitors in the field defeat actuarial odds and return home, one could well imagine their Sunni disposition being clouded by others not conforming to the “faith”. Time to consider thoughtful reaction, but perhaps not time to waste?

Regards,

Of course, who the enemy is depends on which side of the gates you happen to be on  – in which West/Russia showdown country – and whether your promise of power is coming from the EU megalomaniacs or the think-they’re-smarter-than-Putin folks in Washington.

When we get past this weekend, and Sochi wraps up, look for things to really heat up.  And one of our designated smart guys says the market collapse date is March 10, which is a Monday.

Meantime,  Robin Handler, who publishes the Options Signal Service,  penned a pretty good observation in his overnight report  (“Another Red Flag” here) that looks at the scary language shifting about and spilling into financial stories now.

We’ve been using language (and cycles off the Fine Structure Constant to make predictions like the pending terrorist attack that came true in Nigeria with an attack this week that killed 47. Overshadowed by events in Ukraine, but only for now.

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Coping: Tax Time And Ure’s Money’s Worth

This year I promised myself that I’d do a better job of getting my taxes done early.  And with only three items left to run (about 3-hours more work) I’m looking forward to finalizing them as early as tomorrow.

About this time of the year, though, since I’m writing the check, I get concerned about what my income tax is paying for.  I happen to have a list:

1.  Press Intimidation:  Here’s one of those Orwellian kinds of stories that ought to send shivers up your spine:  “Why is the Obama Administration putting government monitors in newsrooms?”

The reality is that when government is local (like schools, for example) when there is an unforeseen time-out, there are days added to the school year.  I know it’s expecting too much for the federal government to try working Saturdays and Sundays, but that’s the hard reality of those of us in the private sector.

It’s another example of “government leading from behind” that doesn’t work.

2.  Federal Time Off:  A story carried in the NY Daily News yesterday headlines that “Federal employees have worked less than 75% of days they were supposed to since October 1: report.”

3.  Obamacare Discrimination:  So far, it looks like only big corporations are the only ones winning.  Since small business owners are being singled out (along with middle class families) I was hoping (delusional, I know) that there would be some compensatory lines in the tax forms.  I haven’t found it yet.

What we are seeing is an increase in stories like “”Man’s back surgery on hold as doctors deny coverage California coverage.”

While it’s truth the democorps would generally hold such criticism to be deity-bashing, Ann Coulter’s quip New Obama Promise: If you like you life, you can keep it…” is starting to look less like a jab and at the lies about “keep your doctor” as a sad pointing out of truth.

4. Guantanamo is Still Open:  The US government has developed a nasty habit of talking one thing and doing another.  Leakage from political campaigns (Change?) as I see it. 

Nevertheless, when a country claims to be a democracy and then sanctions rendition, waterboarding, drone attacks on a US citizen, and keeps Gitmo going rather than bring cases to open trial, it bothers me deeply in a “false advertising” sort of way.

5.  NSA Is Planning More Spying:  The contortion is in this is simple:  NSA has been doing illegal surveillance (except legal to people who don’t answer to the public, only to the secret government that’s beyond voter control) – that much we knew.

But now it turns out that gobs of spy data which would have “expired” is now going to be retained why?  So it can be referred to in future lawsuits which we can only imagine will be brought by people who are the subjects of?  Why illegal surveillance, of course!

Yessir, circular thinking at its finest.

I could go on with my list, but you’ve no doubt got a few of your own.  Leaking borders, US folks protecting poppy fields in the ‘stans.  Why, the listing alone would take weeks.

For the longest time, I believed that my annual tax filing was an accounting project that justified my contribution to the fight for “Truth, Justice, and the American Way.”

No more.  Guido, Luigi, Eric, and Barack, is more like it.

But it brings me to a common-sense way to improve the quality of government in America.

We need to starting holding elections the day after  your taxes get filed. People loose about half their IQ from April 15th to the general elections in November.

Life in the New Dust Bowl

Reader Jim M reports on what we’ve been telling you about grabbing your ankles in the check-out line:

You were right: 

Key quote from this article:

“At the local grocery store, fruit prices are up — but sales are down. The market was forced to lay off three employees — and many more throughout the town are packing their bags and leaving town.

McDonald said farming communities like Firebaugh run the risk of becoming desolate ghost towns as local governments and businesses collapse.”

Yep…the stories in the headlines in the previous section are beginning to really make the case for serious gardening efforts at all levels.  Remember: Control food (or water) and you own the population…

Gambling Advice

I’m not setting up shop as a statistical consultant, but…

George,

I have something that is i guess, kinda peculiar. My daughter was born on April 14. Her bday this year is 4-14-14. When you add the numbers, they total 14. Anything I should bet on or invest the last $2.00 I have?

Thank you,

Eliot

Well, here’s my advice.  Buy 4 – One Dollar lotto tickets.

Here’s my Consulting advice: Buy $41,414 dollars worth.

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