News

First and threemost, the new Gross Domestic Product figures are out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis today.  So let’s start with the press release:

“Real gross domestic product — the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.

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If you live in Texas, and if you enjoy Joe Paggs and all over at WOAI AM (1200) at night, please go to the WOAI website and sign the petition to protect regional AM stations that have large nighttime coverage areas.

The petition is here: http://woai.iheart.com/features/save-am-radio-1919/ 

We live in East Texas and depriving us of over-the-air listening to WOAI at night would prevent us from receiving timely news, information and in particular regional weather information.

As you should be aware, there are some streaming services that might represent they provide coverage out here in “fly-over” country, but this is simply not true. 

What REALLY happens is that the local telco carrier (in our case CenturyLink) puts in half-ass HDSL service and the proceeds to over-sell their service so that we are frequently victims of bandwidth exhaustion.  (We have complained to the Commission and the telco with no improvement in service.)  Welcome to responsive government.

Additionally, while we have a satellite system as well, in the Commissions “infinite wisdom” these are presently tariffed at extortionist rates that preclude casual streaming of iHeart or other services.  What you should also be aware of is that just when we need it most (as in bad weather) we find either the NOAA weather is down or the satellite is down due to precipitation wrecking the satellite shot. Power’s not perfect out in these parts, either.

So please, for God’s sake, don’t compound one act of stupidity with another and screw up a health AM broadcast band by freeing up additional channel space for marginal broadcasters and give the successful long-term regional AM operators have a chance against an increasingly competitive environment comprises of wannabes who don’t know the first thing about serving a region, let alone a community.  Narrowcasting with lots of small bad stations does not make up for genuine quality broadcasting by a good station.

Or, is that the point?  Is it that  because WOAI doesn’t carry the kind of politically-acceptable (liberal approved) content that the Commission promotes which is just sure as hell not in the public need, interest, and concern?  Economic Stimulus plan, maybe?  We seem to have the odor of politics in the air.

Or, as an alternative, tell the freaking telcos to put fiber out here to the woods so we can enjoy the public safety benefits of good broadcasters like WOAI.   Otherwise?  Mits off!

Thank you for your attention,
George & Elaine Ure (retied in East Texas)

I don’t give AM radio much of a chance in the long-term.  It’s just too useful.

Instead we will likely see it disassembled and then cobbled into local stations, none of which will have anywhere near the quality of coverage.  I counted the other night and already, nighttime AM radio here is not reflective of the region’s demographics.

We do long driving trips now and then and sometimes at night.  There’s nothing like a Noory or the latest weather from your destination to keep you awake.

Leave it to government to “fix” something else that ain’t broken.

Or, is there something else afoot?  With Agenda 21 and all, how about under-serving the rural areas even more?  Isolate and conquer is it?  And while telcos argue they need money for infrastructure out in the sticks (where the food and energy come from, remember?) when it comes down to investing in rural of sending dividends to shareholders, care to guess who wins?

Debate Fatigue

Please tell me last night was the last of it?  Not that I don’t mind watching the theater of people trying to “out republican one-another.” 

To my cynical eye, the only guy who talked an issue well was Dr. Ben Carson who didn’t get enough time to explain his healthcare ideas – and being a doc and all, I value Carson’s take.  He was also the most “presidential” in demeanor.

John Kasich gave a good impression, too, as someone who could roll up his sleeves and get something done.  As to the Trump remark that Ohio’s success in budgets was due to oil, Kasich had numbers to back up his claim that it was not a fracking festival going on although whose numbers to believe is like a choice between a pistol or shot of hemlock.

Ted Cruz, I think, did the right thing in terms of laying back one getting a few jabs in at Trump –who fended them off well.  But here’s the thing:  I thought Marco Rubio could have used an Adderall, or two because he was just way outside the kind of reserved, intelligent kind of discourse that would play well. 

And though lots of people think Trump won it, which is may have, I want him to start getting more into specifics and I got the impression that other than broad promises, he didn’t have a real (point by point) healthcare plan.

So at this point, even though it’s perhaps a “wasted vote” I will likely vote for Ben Carson because he’s likely the “smartest guy in the room.”  Trump will carry most of the states, maybe Cruz wins Texas, and Trump carries the convention.

But maybe a vote for Carson  isn’t wasted.  He’s thoughtful, smart, and knows how to “hit the books and learn” which is something I greatly admire.   Of all the candidates, I keep coming back to Trump-Caron as the best selection of brains and practical experience to fix what’s been broken by too many same-old-crats and same-old-cans.

If there’s one thing I learned from 40-years of news and business hard-ball:  Smart people count.  And while no one on the stage is a dummy, for me to comes down to doers and posers and Cruz’s lack of support from fellow republicans (*which Trump hammered on) does underscore the lack of team play.

Then again, that’s what this whole sordid mess has been:  No team play.  I heard the beginnings of a Carson plan with real meat on it.  Trump danced it, Rubio and Cruz had way too much testosterone going, although Kasich got across (true or not) that he is a roll ‘em up and let’s get ‘er done kind of guy.

Damn shame the democrats have been playing hide the sausage all this time.  I would love to see how Hillary would have fared in a real Shark Tank.

Payback for Holder, Et Alia

So now we see how to avoid freedom of information requests:  Hide the read name of the person do the official acts.

The story popped out in Vice on Thursday that former U.S.

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Before we get into the daily dose of data (DDoD) we should point to the story making the rounds this morning about how the Chinese are watching the evolving groundswell in the direction of Donald Trump’s presidential bid with some concern.

Specifically, according to the story over here, following the Nevada win by Trump, the Chinese have told the U.S. not to engage in currency shifts because that would be a bad thing in their view.

Yes, a change in currency valuations (like weakening the dollar) would cause the price of imported goods – not just from China, but from everywhere – to rise.

But here is how the current situation works – and this is really a “deal with the Devil” so pay attention as I run this down on the whiteboard:

As things are now, when we go to the store and buy something made in China, two things are going on:  First, we are buying goods that actually should cost a little more.  So the American consumer is getting a good deal at the checkout stand.  Chinese workers don’t charge as much for their labor.

BUT where the screw job comes in is that because the US has pursued a “strong dollar” policy, it means that actual goods producing jobs have fled American en masse.  So while the consumer gets a little “pay-off” in terms of cheaper goods, the penalty box is that industry flees from the USA, the Chinese benefit from this hollowing-out of America, and THEY get the factories and the increasing standards of living that go with production of real goods, not just the circularity of increased government spending on more and more…er…. government…  (Takes a lot of people to run the catch and release program and all.)

The problem the Chinese see with Trump is real:  I think he’s likely to actually DO something about the process which has been backed by the legions of lobbyists who ply Capitol Hill with threats and favors in order to set up favorable tax policies that allow big companies (like Apple) to make and park oodles of money in offshore accounts, safe from U.S.

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Naw…tell me it ain’t so…

This morning we venture into an area which I’m not terribly familiar with:  Art.

Maybe as Linkletter, Carney, and perhaps in a gallery, but that’s about it. I pride myself on being a cultural Heathen.

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Everyone likes a good story, especially if it is of the late Tom Clancy, high-tech genre.  But here’s an interesting problem:  What would a writer do if they came up with an idea which, for a specific part of our technological history, could do great harm to the country?

Would you publish?  Or, would you simply sit on the concept for a while…and wait until is passes?

This morning we roll out a very short story about how just such an attack on America might have been pulled off back in 2003.  But it’s no longer possible for reasons we won’t delve too deeply into.  Still, the key thing to be learned from the exercise is that if one simply looks around at the macro trends in society and government, one can do some pretty good scenario-building about the future.

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Just out is the press release on housing…

New York, February 23, 2016 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

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Probably this Sunday, or next, I will get around to filling out the paperwork and file my federal tax returns.

Part of me realizes this is a joke.  I couldn’t find a definition of “money” – but there is no problem defining gross income or net income or taxable income or AGI…but seems like there’s not much out there I the way of definitions of “money.”  If you find it in the IRS Code, please send it along.  I found money laundering but not simple money, but then I’m dumb as a stone at times.

Still, Joke or Not, bureaucracies take themselves entirely seriously…so we respond in kind with a totally accurate tax form.  It is, after all, only money.

Before you start, get all of your data (1040’s, 1099’s and so on) into a single file folder.  Load up the right version of TurboTax or whatever you’re using. 

We use TurboTax Home & Business 2015 Federal + State Taxes + Fed Efile Tax Preparation Software – PC/Mac Disc an d it sets us back $80 a year.  It’s a deductible expense if I recall right.

But on the other side, TurboTax has an article here on eight things you maybe thought were deductible and which aren’t.

I won’t go into specifics of what we expense when traveling, but I do work everywhere I go, even on cruise ships.  But things like cruise expenses don’t show up, and neither to hotels…even though I work at least four hours at each stop. 

Sure, I could be more aggressive, but I don’t begrudge the government its due.  So I don’t write off my hotel or anything for myself, or the cost of local newspapers in places like Phoenix or Las Vegas or wherever we happen to go.  I’m more than reasonable in what’s claimed.  Even though I have to work product in every city I lay my head down in.  It’s the nature of being a writer for a national (and international) audience.

Wait..maybe I’m and idiot…my consigliore thinks I should claim much more than I do, but I always like to have an extra ace to play if it’s ever needed. No, I didn’t set the airplane up as a single-purpose LLc, either.  We don’t use it enough to matter and I’m sure that could become contentious.  I doubt my “need to travel but don’t want the government checking my junk…” as junk-checks are taxing in a way is an argument…but I digress.

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On a weekly closing basis, it would sure be nice to see the S&P climb over the 1,950 level and stay there for a week or three, then pull back, but not to new lows, so I could load up on some out of the money options and make a bunch of dough.

It would be nice, but we will see.

In the meantime, this week is a busy one.  We have the Case-Shiller/S&P Housing Price Index out tomorrow…so a two-parter tomorrow.

Which gets us circled back to this morning and the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index which is reported as…

“Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.28 in January from –0.34 in December. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from December, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the  index in January.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.15 in January from –0.30 in December. January’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend.

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Time for the 5th chapter of our “Second Depression Handbook” to roll out.

We bounce this morning into the 5th chapter of our planning book on the Second Depression.  I still hold to the notion that we are not yet in a position to have the kind of down-and-out grinder of an economic catastrophe that Depressions are.

Simple:  There is still too much government can do to avoid the issue.  But roll forward a couple of years, out in the 2017 to 2018 period, toss in a new and failing administration, a return of the California drought, and increase in trade warfare, and massive population displacements due to too many people and not enough jobs…well, now we’re getting somewhere.

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A point and to-the-short discussion this morning.

First is the Leading Economic Index, released by the Thursday which work the bears up for the last hour or two of trading:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in January to 123.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November.

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Very quietly this week I pass a wholly artificial boundary called a “birthday.”  Everyone has one, but few people use the occasion for the purpose of hard introspection or to sit back and reflect on their learnings in the past year.

I’m pleased to report in this morning’s State of the George report, that the state of George is good.  This process I go through is very much like the annual employee evaluation so cherished by human resource types.

So we begin with the basics:  Would I still hire me to do whatever it is I do?

The basics first:

George is still happily married.  His health is robust.  His mind still (somewhat) agile, and his sense of wonder and awe at the simplest things is unabated.

What do I have to show for the past year?  A good bit, really.  But therein lies a nested topic for this morning:  What are the metrics by which we measure our lives?

Religion once served that purpose, almost universally.  But there is a new “religion” on the block and we call that Science and bow down to it as surely as we’d have bowed to Jesus, Moses, or Lao Tzu or perhaps the Buddha.

Indeed, when we pass the collection plate anymore, it’s less likely to happen in a Church, but instead it will be passed by Government, which has ascended as a new religion in the sense that it holds what seems an unlimited growth of Issuing Decrees, a right once reserved to the Vatican or the Caesar.

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I feel like Prince BoCheesly, second in line to ascend to the throne as King of the Economic Universe and heir to the Fount of All Knowledge this morning as the S&P (which lately has been the S & P all over the place) arrives in the long-awaited showdown area.

To be sure, I have referred to this generally as the “1950” area of the S&P but to be more precise, it is 1,940.24 recorded on January 19th.

Here’s “the deal” – We can count a one down, two up, three down, four up, and five down to finish between January 29th and ending on February 11th.  From there, we have gone nearly straight up. 

It’s OK to take today off since we get inflation data tomorrow.  There is still deflation about, since a year ago gas was $2.27 and now it’s $1.72 nationally.  (We don’t do additional decimals points until noon if it can be avoided.)

Projecting the futures pricing onto the action today, we would expect a close (ideally) around 1,933.82… but that is asking a bit much since the real-deal here is 1,940 and change which could fall tomorrow – depending on how the Cost of Living data comes in.

For this morning, we will have to suffer through Philly Fed data and later on the most-favored economic anagram – the Leading Economic Indicators – which used to be the LEI and that’s all the help on the anagram I’ll give you.

Now, about this Philly Fed stuff:

“Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported continued weakness in business conditions this month. The indicator for general activity remained slightly negative this month, edging up only marginally from its reading in January. Other indicators offered mixed signals: The shipments index remained positive, but new orders and employment indexes remained negative and declined modestly.

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