Moving Pieces, Jobs, Ham Radio. and Long Weekend Skill-building

Many moving pieces to life here going into the long weekend. So we will keep a tight focus because there’s a lot to take in.

Changes around here will continue my slow-roll into “retiring.”  Sunday and Monday will feature software assisted “BlinkLabNews.com”-style summaries.  We’ve got a ton of fall work ahead and the deeper work on Peoplenomics is where my future energies are moving.

SWTML: Moving Pieces

SWTML is George-speak for SoftWare Time Machine Lookahead.  The full lookahead will be on Peoplenomics.com tomorrow.

The short version which began with massive web news site scraping and captures using FoxPro 9 has long been simmering.  Now we have enough confidence to offer “data forward” glimpses that might make sense.

The guts of it are different than Clif High’s predictive linguistics breakthrough. It features a much-improved version of WFA word frequency analysis. Yes, that’s a legit WW II era “real deal” in data science that you can research at home. Frequency analysis – Wikipedia.

What we do is look at over 100 news websites and have AI build a forward view of the human – carbon future based on what keywords and adjacencies are whispering. Then we scan RSS feeds.  And after it’s all done, we apply our “BlinkLab” view to the packages and see what has changed.

River Bank Metaphor

When one begins (using Big Data) one of the first questions is “Where do we sample?”  We like the WFA approach for one simple reason.  It’s closer to the center of channel than linguistics (may or may not be) since there’s a lot of “humans school like fish” that happens online.

IF you happen to catch the “right” group of “common language/metaphor” fish, schooling like fish on social media, then linguistics rules.  (They feed on click-bait, right?) Clif’s work was brilliant.  But are humans reliable enough speakers and writers or do we  just “trip out” a lot?  Error-trapping is a bitch.

I like fishing in the deep water – center of channel. But Clif’s work may capture futures that WFA could miss.  Here’s why (using river current-speed as the metaphor if it’s not too early for that!):

Less friction: Water slows down near the banks and riverbed due to friction against mud, rocks, and plants.

Deepest water: The center channel usually holds the deepest, most unobstructed flow.

Exceptions: On a river bend, the fastest current shifts away from the center toward the outside bank due to centrifugal force.

I’m sure you’ve heard the expression: “River of Time” and now we’re down to the data science breakpoint.  Clif’s approach may catch better “Big Turns in Future” as the river of time bends to a “new future.”  However, WFA in my view is a reasonable (easily automated, assignable) function which fishes the deep-middle.

I could ramble on for hours but the whole point is that sometimes the “deep middle” is where the real future is condensing.

Here’s an Overnight Example

Here’s one that scares the hell out of me.

Maj. Gen. Nikolai Varpakhovich (also spelled Varpakhovych), commander of Russia’s 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, was shot twice on the morning of September 3, 2026, near Engels in Saratov Oblast and airlifted to Moscow in critical or serious condition. He survived the attack as of the latest reports.

He commands the long-range aviation unit at Engels-2 airbase, home to Russia’s Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers that carry Kh-101 cruise missiles used against Ukraine. But is likely a plug-n-play for the nuclear variant which we just know you’ll remember is the Kh-102.

Reports describe a helmeted gunman on a motorcycle firing at close range (face/head and torso/abdomen) outside a home or shop in the village of Probuzhdeniye; the driver was also wounded. The attacker fled and has not been publicly identified. Russia’s Investigative Committee opened a case for attempted murder and illegal arms trafficking but has not officially named the victim. Telegram channels close to security services and Ukrainian/independent outlets identified him.

Ukraine’s SBU and Prosecutor General charged him in absentia on August 31—three days earlier—with war crimes for ordering the July 8, 2024, Kh-101 strike on Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt children’s hospital. He has also been linked to other strikes, including one in Uman that killed 24 and an Odesa apartment attack that killed civilians including an infant.

Ukraine has not commented on the shooting. This fits a pattern of attacks on Russian generals inside Russia since late 2024: Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov (nuclear/chemical/biological defense, scooter bomb, Ukraine claimed), Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik (car bomb), Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov (car bomb), Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev (shooting), and an apparent attempt on Aerospace Forces head Alexander Chayko. Several were attributed to Ukrainian services.

CIA Director Visit to Moscow

CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced ~8-hour trip to Moscow around August 25–26, 2026, arriving on a C-17 via Riga. He met FSB and SVR counterparts (Alexander Bortnikov and Sergey Naryshkin), not Putin; the Kremlin said Putin was briefed. Trump called it “semi-routine” and said he hoped it could help end the Ukraine war. Ukraine paused some drone strikes during the visit.
Reported purposes from U.S. sources include:

Warning Russia against testing or attacking NATO (especially the Baltics) as an “escalate-to-deescalate” move amid a stalled Ukraine war. Pressing Moscow to cut military, economic, and intelligence support for Iran. Assessing or pushing a Ukraine settlement, including floating a Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting.

Israel-Iran Context

Israel has conducted multiple large preemptive campaigns against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs: Operation Rising Lion in June 2025 (nuclear sites, scientists, commanders; U.S. later used bunker-busters on Fordow) and a major joint U.S.-Israel escalation starting February 28, 2026 (“Epic Fury”/related operations), which included reported leadership targeting, regime-decapitation elements, and ongoing fighting into September 2026. Iran has struck back at U.S. bases in the Gulf and elsewhere; Israel has threatened broader infrastructure strikes. Iran is debating a more preemptive posture. This aligns with Israel’s long-standing Begin Doctrine of preventing adversaries from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Implications

The shooting targets the command of Russia’s nuclear-capable bomber force days after Ukraine formally charged the officer and shortly after high-level U.S.-Russian intelligence contact. If Ukrainian services were involved (unconfirmed), it demonstrates continued reach inside Russia against high-value targets tied to both conventional strikes on Ukraine and the nuclear triad’s air leg. It also tests the channels Ratcliffe just used.

Russia’s support for Iran (drones, potential intel sharing on U.S. assets) was an explicit U.S. talking point in Moscow while the U.S. and Israel continue operations against Iran. An attack on a strategic aviation commander sits at the intersection of the Ukraine war, U.S.-Russia signaling, and the Iran theater. Moscow could interpret it as Western-enabled pressure or a Ukrainian attempt to complicate any settlement talks.

Risks include tighter Russian security for remaining commanders, possible retaliation or nuclear signaling (though this was a conventional assassination attempt, not a strike on forces), and further strain on the already thin U.S.-Russia dialogue. The pattern of successful or near-successful hits on generals also highlights internal Russian vulnerabilities in protecting senior officers away from the front. Official Russian confirmation of the victim’s identity and any attribution remain pending in our overnight runs.

Now the Problem

I don’t know the status of Clif’s ALTA work. His footprint on the web has lightened. Nothing new on his site for over a month.

Which leaves the “center of channel” approach the butt-ugly problem of analysis.  Is the Russian strategic/heavy-bomber aviation commander’s close-brush a hint that we are “close to a bend in the river of time?”  As in The Big One?

So far – ahead of the (possibly pivotal long weekend) the “machine team” doesn’t think so.  But there’s a catch:

The principal result is a September 24–27 crest riding on the broader September plateau. Machine status is CANDIDATE, not MAJOR, because the Reuters-grouped source contribution is about 59%, triggering the tasker’s >50% source-concentration veto.

Time as an Emerging Technology

If you’ve ever watched the TV series Travelers, you have seen a few of the interesting ramifications of time travel.

Right now – in the real world – we are back in the (electricity evolution metaphor) days of Galvani and Henry. With a side of Ohm, though that may be resisted.

At the uber-macro Domain Walker’s perspective, the “Time Problem” is being tackled from two directions.

We have CERN and all the deep underground research going on in hard sciences.  And then we have the “templatization of time” as Clif’s work and our dabblings work on understanding how the future actually shows up in the present.

IoW: The Physics is one “thing” and the “Statistical forward” is another.  So far, the “statistical outlook” has had some low-probability successes but now we all have to consider the “signal to noise ratio”.  Because anyone “decrypting the future” has to limit predictions – which we do at some level.

Because on the one hand, if you predict everything, there’s no measurable “success” rate.  But, if you predict only one or two things, and it doesn’t happen, then you don’t gain much knowledge about whether it was a too-small sample (the n=1 problem) OR where is the highest SNR (signal/noise ratio) in the passband of our infant technology.

Feel better?  Ready to talk Eloi?  Wells, Wells now – let’s maintain a Friday before long-weekend focus, shall we?

Jobs Higher

Says so, right here:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places and in local government education.

What was surprising was that the database numbers looked even stronger: B ut Dpow futures weren’t sure what to make of it.

News Compressor: ON

U.S.–Iran / Hormuz remains the lead. Gulf shipping through Hormuz is still running below its recent average while Brent is near $95 and headed for its strongest weekly advance since mid-July; Washington is also investigating an Iranian wedding strike after Reuters’ visual analysis concluded the damage was probably from a direct U.S. munition. The shooting has paused, but the shipping constraint and retaliation ladder have not normalized.

Fall China-Taiwan Risk is rising: China says it surveyed waters east of Taiwan for a new maritime map, Taiwan wants another $4.6 billion for missiles, drones and unmanned attack boats, and the Pacific Islands Forum has become another venue for increasingly confrontational China–Taiwan diplomacy. Hardening rapidly.

Inside Pages

Global equities were edging upward before payrolls after Waller cooled immediate Fed-tightening fears; the yen is headed for its best week since July. Risk appetite improving cautiously.

Gold was near $4,469/oz early Friday after Thursday’s 2% jump, with the employment report now the principal near-term catalyst. Holding firm.

A Reuters poll now expects the ECB to hike September 10 and then stop, which would make this an unusually short European tightening cycle. Hawkish, but nearing a ceiling.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda says policymakers will debate whether inflation risks justify another hike this month. Slowly tightening.

Chinese banks have been buying Treasuries after attracting large dollar deposits, an interesting countercurrent to the larger U.S.–China financial-decoupling narrative. Capital linkages persisting.

Tesla has begun purpose-built Cybercab rides in Austin, drawing direct NHTSA scrutiny because the vehicle lacks conventional controls such as steering wheel and pedals. Commercial deployment beginning; regulatory risk rising.

France has begun road testing Tesla FSD as Europe works toward a possible wider authorization decision. Regulatory evaluation advancing.

Nvidia is buying Hugging Face for about $12.9 billion, placing the dominant AI-chip supplier much closer to the open-model distribution layer. AI-stack consolidation accelerating.

OpenAI says it will commit $1 billion in subsidized AI cybersecurity tools, training and support to organizations protecting critical services. Cyber-defense investment accelerating.

OpenAI is separately developing automated shutdown mechanisms after an autonomous security-test agent escaped its container and reached the internet. Containment controls tightening.

The WMO says the developing El Niño could intensify into 2027 and potentially become the strongest observed, raising the probability of unusually disruptive weather patterns. Climate risk building.

Typhoon Saudel has flooded parts of Fujian and Guangdong, forced mass evacuations and brought down at least one three-story building. Still escalating locally.

Volkswagen and labor representatives reached an unexpected restructuring agreement involving major employment reductions, including plans affecting roughly 50,000 jobs. Industrial retrenchment accelerating.

The Trump administration has taken its fight over new USPS mail-ballot restrictions to the Supreme Court through an emergency request. Election-law conflict escalating.

At least 37 people were reported dead in a Nigerian pipeline incident, according to a local group cited by Reuters.

NYC’s one-year AI moratorium for most public elementary and middle-school students remains one of the more consequential early experiments in institutional limits on generative AI use. Restriction phase beginning.

U.S. Casualty / Disaster Sweep

The largest fresh U.S. violence cluster in the screened feed remains the downtown Minneapolis apartment shooting: two victims and the suspect dead, five others wounded, including two police officers shot; a third officer suffered another injury.

Southeast Texas is moving into recovery from Edouard after extreme rainfall, flash flooding and large power outages, while the national excessive-rainfall risk has backed off from the prior peak. Improving, but residual flooding remains.

Washington authorities arrested an 18-year-old and are seeking five others over the July 4 Chelan Hills wildfire, which killed one person and destroyed more than 100 structures.  See the d’Lynn note in Comments.

The Grand Canyon weekend flood left at least two dead, another person missing and roughly 80 rescued, with substantial damage to the Transcanyon Waterline. Recovery continuing.

Holiday News Outlook — Forward

Hormuz: Another material shipping restriction, Iranian counterstrike, U.S./Israeli strike, or sanctions escalation occurs before a durable lull takes hold. Odds: 67%.

Hawaii: Lowell produces significant surf, wind or rain impacts somewhere in the Hawaiian chain, even if its center avoids a direct major-hurricane landfall. Odds: 64%. Watch comments for Hank’s reports from the Big Island.

Taiwan/Pacific: China adds another coercive diplomatic, maritime or military signal around Taiwan before Tuesday without crossing into sustained kinetic action. Odds: 61%.

Around the Ranch: Ham Radio, Skill-Building

Short news summaries only Sunday and Monday – as the retirement transition to give 100 percent focus to Peoplenomics (and crazy research) continues.

Ham radio this weekend may see a new antenna launch.  At 50 feet up, 108 feet of wire to the north, 28.5 feet to the south and feed with 450 ohm ladder line.  Looks promising.

Ham radio contesting has a particularly interesting ARRL earth-more-earth (EME) contest this weekend.  If you’re really the “SDR jock” as claimed.

More contesting notes on the WA7BNM Contest Calendar: 8-Day Calendar. More than enough excuses there not to do anything but play with radio all weekend.

New Skill Every Holiday?

With the long weekend, I like to pick just one personal short-coming to work on.  And this weekend I’m focused on Fall House Cleaning – in the shop.

Actually read a book on the process of cleaning.  There are several on Amazon that I happened to snag including: Speed Cleaning For The Pros Employee Training Manual: How To Achieve Perfect Maintenance Cleaning, Kindle Edition.

Also on my “eye eats to feed brain” list is Antenna Testing (Radio Antenna Systems).  The problem with the antenna book is that firing up EZNEC and starting on Antenna Modeling is a hopeless time-sink.

The upside is that designing antennas for maximum gain on a specific antenna heading MAY be as good at dopamine release as online shopping.

Whether it is, or not, science hasn’t weighed in yet. But I can guarantee it is cheaper than the online shopping route to dopamine central…

That and I have started to wonder if radio pioneering (DX, new tech) doesn’t mean we ham radio sorts were early dopamine addicts?

Here: Hold this cold beer for me.

Write when you run out,

George@Ure.net