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Two at its Top? Nailing the Ontology

A couple of data points crossed this morning—import/export inflation still running hotter than polite company wants to admit, and regional manufacturing perking just enough to keep the “soft landing” crowd chirping. Meanwhile, geopolitics continues its slow-motion stumble toward something larger, with just enough “good news / bad news” headlines to keep futures levitating on fumes. If you’re trading off headlines alone right now, good luck—because the underlying structure is telling a very different story. We laid that out in today’s ChartPack, and let’s just say… it’s not the kind of setup you want to discover after the fact.

Then there’s the other piece—the one most people will miss entirely. What started as a simple model of human cognition (the Four Tracks) has now wrapped into something bigger: a working framework for how reality itself is experienced, filtered, and acted upon. Call it Ontology if you like—but we’ve finally nailed down how Track Zero sits over the stack and why that matters not just for thinking, but for timing, decision-making, and yes… markets. If you think charts move on news alone, you’re already late. The full breakdown—and where this likely goes next—is in today’s Focus: Sparks Off the Wheel.

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66 thoughts on “Two at its Top? Nailing the Ontology”

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    • well now lenny,, this ole other brother Darrell, says everything is in the state of change, even the mountains are being pushed up and eroding down

      static condition = endless boredom to eternity,, when/where is the enjoyment or excitment in that?
      gambling has no excitment, if there is no chance of losing or winning,,,
      horse race anyone,, Stewball was a race horse

      Oh Stewball was a racehorse, and I wish he were mine.
      He never drank water, he always drank wine.

      His bridle was silver, his mane it was gold.
      And the worth of his saddle has never been told.

      Oh the fairgrounds were crowded, and Stewball was there
      But the betting was heavy on the bay and the mare.

      And a-way up yonder, ahead of them all,
      Came a-prancin’ and a-dancin’ my noble Stewball.

      I bet on the grey mare, I bet on the bay
      If I’d have bet on ol’ Stewball, I’d be a free man today.

      Oh the hoot owl, she hollers, and the turtle dove moans.
      I’m a poor boy in trouble, I’m a long way from home.

      Oh Stewball was a racehorse, and I wish he were mine.
      He never drank water, he always drank wine.

  2. and the FED sanctions chinese banks . i never ever thought USA was so pure and righteous , especially its banking . so now the FED is judge and jury . unbelievable

    • McConnell and his monkeys got us Wanged.

      “U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday confirms Asian surnames were the fastest-growing last names in the United States from 2010 to 2020.

      Zhang, Liu, and Wang ranked as the top three fastest-growing surnames nationwide. “

  3. GU : “…Wave 2 rally—the part of the movie that convinces people “maybe it’s all okay after all.” That’s exactly what Wave 2 is supposed to do. …”

    Well put G. Elliot escapes me trying to assign waves to parabolic rise from mid 2025 on. Meanwhile we waits Precious. Are we building triple tops?

    Wicked storms (again) overnight. Easily a 1/2″ of rain, more inbound.
    Our lake went from very low to + a foot.
    Got water? Getcha some

    Egor ~ __|_ ~~

    • I was thinking about you in my rocking recline this morning, Commodore. I thought back to how the world felt when we sailed under the Golden Gate and went offshore in the Hunter 40, headed south down around Conception.
      Then it hit me. Yes. I am old, but not so old I can’t sheet in a main and jib on a 20-25 foot trailerable rig. Mind wandered to a West Wight Potter. “My, Egor really got to this one first. You’re never too old to sail – Stiks, too – we are all salts at some level. So I allocated an hour of time I don’t have to a deeper draft, bigger water night weight sailer – something of even wood because one can’t be “out” all the time.
      There – see what all your damn …/\… and /) has wrought?

      • Come on Landlubber, Something a matta wit Ure Ears?
        The Ochin be calling youse..

        Get Ureself a live a board Sailboat, and cruise America via the ICW/The Great Loop.
        -https://www.greatloop.org/
        Writing on the Water..

        We will keep a light on for youse Two.
        Actually dock is strung in yellow lights via small Solar Charging panels. Very long docks as need to cross atop the Salt Marsh, which is about 150 yards long from end of back yard to Boat/BoatLift. American Flag is flying 24/7 down on dock, and it too has a solar powered Light, required when flying da Flag 24/7.

        From back porch to waterway is clear and clean Shot. No worries as I always dbl tap..yes I shoot the carcass. Too many times have thought target was DEAD, when in fact it still had a lil something something left..enough to shred my hand.
        Iguana Dispatch Note – Dont grab em by the tail until you are 100% sure Iggy is dead and no autonomic CNS jerks are possible.
        Had a full grown Male, all Orange and ready to Mate by the tail after placing shot right behind his Eye. Poked it a few times to make sure he wasnt moving, should have popped his ass again, just as soon as I grabbed his tail to drag him to the water, and he rolled in my hand. Needless to say my hand was shredded by the nasty dirty reptile..Can you say Hibiclens ?
        Dont leave home without it, specially if you “hunt” Herps or ectothermic tetrapods, and dont want no Salmonella.

        • George… and Egor… perchance the dirt be easing the grip on your soles?/ ne souls?. Out there is the ever changing constant, the real road without lines. Sailing out the Gate is definitely special. Done that twice now with no thoughts of ever seeing it going in again. Sadly rocks (not the dirt) busted the bottom out of the first leaving and turned life into just dreaming of being out there again until a lifetime of toil and taxes and ex-es finally allowed another crack at the boundless joy world that is always there.
          Having a floating alternative available is not so far out of reach. Age has nothing to do with it. My favorite sailing example just did 4000nm at 93. He finally said that’s enough and has passed his boat to another. I’m sure he lives the hundreds of thousands of miles he put under his keel (began at two crossing the Atlantic on the WANDERBIRD) rounded Cape Horn at four, then never stopped. Salute to Commodore Tompkins as the fine example.
          No limits.
          Stiks

    • Yeah…

      Gettin’ tired of your wicked storms. I’ve been all over Northern Indiana the last two days — need to get home and get some plants in the ground. At least gas here dropped substantially (I filled up for $3.44 which [they tell me] is 80¢ down, for the week.) That means it’s probably about $3.80 around Casa del Ray, but once I park my tornadie glasses I’m not going back out for a couple weeks…

  4. Great epigenetic reading and analysis of our human condition.

    I practice a Qi Gong routine twice a day and it helps keep my back and body stretched out. I take the dogs for walks too, and do some muscle training, use it or lose it. I started taking a daily creatine monohydrate supplement at dinner for the past month, and I have noticed a change in my dreams during sleeping, seems to be a more constant stream of vivid dreams on a regular basis. I have been taking a big handful of vitamins daily as well. Self care is essential.

    I have the Mrs. taking it now too…

    **Creatine may improve cognitive function, including memory, attention, and processing speed, especially under stress or sleep deprivation.** It also supports brain energy metabolism and may have protective benefits, potentially aiding in conditions like depression and brain injury recovery.

    • Ure Creatine is beneficial to Kidney/Liver Channel…does a Body good. One of main supps I ingest daily, not for the Pump, for the Longevity. For the ‘Pump” I ingest “IGNITER” from Biotest Store, 30 minutes prior to workout. A reaction that you will FEEL.

      Uncle Clif says the “elixer of Life” is already in trials..Looking at a 2027 availability date for us Human Beans. Like $10 Grand for one drink..but that one drink will stop Ure Cells ageing process, and start reversing the damage done, get you like 20-30 plus years of super heathy, viable living. Big problem is what to do with all the extra Time ? Floaty RV’s, Space Adventures…gonna have to Muse over it and Cogitate for a while.

      • This is very interesting. We are still in port. Should be sailing today, once the 33 scientists get on board. We are getting 33 more scientists.

        I met this fella on the ship. He is 67 years old and can do 100 pull ups in a row. He runs 6 decks up and back, to make a one count. he does it 100 counts every night. that is a lot of flights of stairs in an hour at age 67.

        He makes this stuff called “the Golden Milk.” I was talking to him. Everyone on the ship says, have a glass. You will feel 20 years old again. They said that fella will outlive us all.

        He said I will give you the recipe before you leave. It is a common accepted fallacy that when you get old your body is supposed to break down. He said aging is an engineered fabrication. A sales pitch A marketing ploy if you will. He looks like a 20-year-old fit soldier who just got out of boot camp at 67. He said you don’t have to drink it all the time, just once a week. He only sleeps 3 hours a day. Has for the last 40 years. Been sailing for over 30 years.

        I said, Okay, cool. I am totally interested.

        The Golden Milk. The Elixir of Life.

        Cool.

        I Win with God within.

        • Sorry Andy – at 88 years old I need the recipe pronto. AI says:

          GOLDEN MILK called THE “ELIXIR OF LIFE” is a nourishing Ayurvedic drink because it:
          *Reduces Inflammation & Pain: Turmeric combats inflammation and helps manage joint pain. The black pepper and healthy fats (oil/ghee) increase the absorption of turmeric’s health benefits by up to 2,000%.
          *Boosts Immunity: The combination of turmeric, ginger, and cinnamon provides antibacterial and antiviral properties.
          *Supports Brain Health:
          It may boost brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), potentially improving cognitive function and reducing Alzheimer’s risk.
          *Improves Digestion & Skin: It supports a healthy gut microbiome and can contribute to clearer skin.
          *Promotes Better Sleep: Drinking warm cozy drink at night aids in relaxation and better sleep quality.
          *Antioxidant Powerhouse: Helps combat oxidative stress, protecting cells and promoting longevity.
          *Balances Blood Sugar: Ingredients like cinnamon and ginger help manage blood sugar levels.

          RECIPE:
          1 cup Milk (Oat, Almond, Coconut, or Dairy)
          1 tsp Ground Turmeric
          1/2 tsp Cinnamon (ground or stick)
          1/4 tsp Ginger (ground or freshly grated)
          Pinch Black Pepper (essential for absorption)
          1 tsp Maple syrup or Honey (optional)
          1/2 tsp Coconut oil or Ghee (for maximum absorption)

          INSTRUCTIONS:
          Combine ingredients in saucepan.
          Heat: Whisk everything together and warm over low-medium heat for 5-10 minutes, allowing the flavors to meld. Do not let it boil.
          Sweeten: Remove from heat and stir in the sweetener.
          Serve: Strain through a sieve if you used fresh ginger/turmeric and pour into a mug. Option: dust with more cinnamon.

        • @George Ure

          “Wait buddy! The recipe?”

          You’re going to have to wait until Andy’s 40 days and 40 nights is over. Just hope his shipmate doesn’t fall overboard and croak, before they put in to port…

        • I don’t have the recipe yet. I hung out with him tonight. He is very into music and you know, I ran backstage security for a good while. So we been chatting. I am going to get it. Super cool dude.

          I think we are underway tomorrow. So I probably wont be back on here for a while.

          This job is fun but brutal. Its 94 degrees in that engine room all day and after 10 to 12 hours and going up and down decks a hundred times a day…. well that is different than shifting gears, sitting on my ass listening to music. haha

          Its kind of weird, I have a weird feeling. Like people are watching me. Its like people know who I am and are whispering. Could be nothing but when I am busy at work if I turn around someone is standing there watching then turns and walks away. Hard to describe, like its all one big secret but I am not in on it.

          Everyone seems really cool, Really like the Captain and everyone in the engineering room is very cool.

          Its just like we took on 33 scientists today and I went around the corner and heard one say to the other, Was that Him. The other one said, Yep, that is him. then they got super quiet. I have never met these people before in my life and nobody else was around but me. so I assume they meant me.

          It has happened more than a few times since I have been on board. If it was once or twice. I wouldn’t have noticed as much but its been more than a few times.

          I am certainly not interested in any of the women, and they all like me a lot. lol but that is normal. I am truly happy with the one I am with back home. I really adore her.

          I guess we shall see, what this all becomes.

          I Win with God within.

        • found out today, we are actually going to Nagasaki not Toyo Japan.

          probably the safest place on earth. nobody would ever drop a nuke there again.

        • Guessing here..That nobody told You that you were the new “Pivot Man”. All newbs on board will surely get a turn, after they kiss the fat babies belly..

          Assuming being a “Turtle” was a pre-qualification.

          Are you in fact a Turtle?

          asking for a friend..

        • ANDY: Be always vigilant, and remember, the ship will have Starlink Internet access, at least in the Radio Room…

  5. My carnivore diet created high creatin levels that worried my Rheumatologist . It’s a sign that liver/kidneys aren’t working well. I’ve added more fruit and a little more carbs to balance it out. My brain definitely works better and I’m more mellow. Be careful how high a daily dose

  9. Fanatical FOMO is alive and well
    Allbirds is an Australian sneaker manufacturer.., [ I have never heard of them. Stock symbol ‘BIRD’. ] they announced yesterday that they are selling off their shoe manufacturing assets and are going into A.I.
    Their stock went from $2.49 a share., [ with a P.E. Ration of near zero ] to over $18.20 – a jump of 635% this morning.
    .
    The entire market and news makers are all so damn bright and cheery this morning.., I’m still sticking to my notion [ long expiration ‘Puts’ ] that this is nothing more than – “the deep breath before the plunge.” [ Thanks, Gandalf.]
    .
    NASDAQ is up solidly this morning solely on the news that the SEC has removed all limits on day trading crypto’s. Dozens of crypto stocks jumped on the announced.

    West Texas, Brent, Gasoline, Natural Gas and Heating oil are all up. They were flat earlier this morning – then Trump hinted that the war with Iran may be coming to an end.

    “Stay Frosty !”

  10. so . you are talking a little2 in the big 1 down you reckon G? no way its a big2. and remember in elliot wave2s and 4s the hardest 2 pick ..

  11. so where does that leave the price of 26256on 30 oct 2025 . yeah seeing is beleiving elliot wave stuff . just short the guts out of everything . long bonds and USD . if your a commie patriot just stay long and short the USD and toss bonds

  12. so the Sand P 500 has just torn the elliot wave mumbo jumbo up today . new high . all yankee rigged , joke , but one day ronnie milsap sings

      • past 4 yrs the “crash” that never happens (Wave, Fract, or whatever other guesses called “analysis”) …….. and IF, and HUGE IF a “crash” does happen …. just my guess, it will be reversed in a blink of an eye ……… as if it all matters …… it don’t …… good luck all

  13. thats why they all kiss and touch the photo and plaque of mark haines every day when they enter the main trading floor at the temple . ohh super bull !! yeah we lnow how you ended up mate . the father of imperialism , americanism and forever up . wheres jimmy crack corn . making bull AI and perma noise ? joke the lot of it . 6 up gold eh ? tonite ? as if i care

  14. yeah your right hank , but sergio mendes did the best cover of fool on the hill . the great herp albert , still alive had big input .

      • yeah she loved herp. the love in the great song rise . he started as a bugler in arlington . great guy

      • re: “Never Say Never Again”, 1983
        feat: “The Windmills of Your Mind”, Lani Hall

        Apparently the original version of “The Windmills of Your Mind” won an Oscar on April 14, 1969. Speaking of secret weapons, Saudi arms dealer Adnan Kashoggi’s vessel stood in as Blofeld’s yacht in the 1983 “Never Say Never Again” film featuring Lani Hall singing.

        The movie’s climax saw interdiction of two nuclear devices prior to their detonation at 0000gmt June 30th in Washington, D.C., and in the fictional ‘Tears of Allah’ on the Ethiopian coast. Searches point to the latter perhaps being represented by the Dallol (Afar:”Disintegration”) hydrothermal field in the Danakil (Arabic:”the Afar people”) Depression. This landform is situated on the Ethiopian side of the Red Sea near Yemen’s Straits of Bab-el-Mandeb (Arabic:”Gate of Tears/Grief”).

        As an aside, “The Adjustment Bureau” (2011) replayed locally on Monday night.

      • Herb is on tour with the Tijuana Brass. The dude is in his 90s and they’re about 9-10 months into a 270+ show schedule. Lani is a ride-along (dunno if she’s singing anything.)

        I had a bad case of “the hots” for Lani Hall, which didn’t go away when she and Herb got married. Additionally, she’s always been one of my favorite vocalists. Lani was a lounge singer in Chicago when Mendes discovered her. She sang lead with Sérgio Mendes & Brasil ’66 for almost five years, and despite the popularity of songs like Mas que Nada and Ye Me Le she never learned one word of conversational Portuguese.

        …And Len, I agree. The Brasil ’66 version blew the Beatles’ original out of the water.

    • I agree Sergio Mendes did it even better than the Beatles, and was the most popular version. I liked most all of Herb Alpert’s stuff also. Do you suppose she married him for his lips?

      • I never knew until yesterday, that Herb Alpert was hired as, and spent his first ten (or so) years in show biz as a singer, not an instrumentalist. I always thought “This Guy’s In Love with You” was an anomaly in his performance catalog…

        Also, Lani’s first Grammy was for a Spanish language album. Not only does she not speak Portuguese, she can’t speak a lick of Spanish…

        • George, Ray, and Hank,

          My faceting teacher who I taught me gem cutting in 1987 had a colorful past. He was a big dude and had owned and operated a bar in Cicero, Illinois in the 1960’s and 1970’s. I believe that he had ties with the Mob in Chicago. Anyway, he used to travel to New Orleans every year for Mardi Gras to party down with Herb Alpert, Pete Fountain, and Sergio Mendes.

  15. I had figured the markets would be up today., but only marginally – I was wrong.., both the NASDAQ and S&P hit record highs – eliminating their entire losses from the start of the Iran war. Weak Sister Dow Jones is still far behind the herd.

    Tomorrow ‘should’ be a different day.

    “Stay Frosty !”

  16. I’m left-handed, so I have that bias. I grew up on ice skates, and later roller skates in the 80s. All four skate rinks were CCW left circling. I learned cross foot turns first to the left, easily. Then I forced myself to practice doing it to the right. Much harder. Practiced until perfected. For each turning ‘trick’ I learned, I made sure to learn and practice it both ways until it was comfortable. Now you talk about dervish spinning zen to some 80s rock music while dancing/balancing on skates….. wow!

  17. re: a turning point in “The Classic City”
    feat: Teapot “calls the kettle black”?

    Athens, Ga. band the B-52’s are understood to be preparing for their Las Vegas residency next week at The Venetian. The luxury complex replaced The Sands in the time of Mr. Adelson whose widow lately of Tel Aviv remains an alleged major financial supporter of #47. The operating license of The Venetian sold earlier this decade to a New York headquartered asset management company. Founded by a trio of investment bankers departing the Drexel Burnham Lambert junk bond event, it now oversees some $460 billion in assets. As an aside, one of the trio allegedly turned out to be a tax advice client of the late Mr. Epstein.

    While Socrates stood accused of corrupting his students in the Athens of ancient Greece, yesterday a youthful crowd gathered in Athens, Ga. for a visitation by Turning Point USA. Msm reported that the widow Mrs. Kirk excused herself from venue attendance due to alleged receipt of threats. Keynote speaker U.S. Vice President Vance continued with the program.

    “X” posters depicted a “Voir Dire” sloganned t-shirt clad youth making inquiry. A V.P. response allegedly expressed an interest in a reopening of the msm-discounted democrat party Pizzagate Scandal.

    The next live entertainment event recorded on the website of Comet Ping Pong in Washington, D.C. is set for this coming Friday. Forager is headlining with their new for 2026 album “Even a Child Can Cover the Sun with a Finger” which delivers ‘shape shifting grooves’ say reviewers. Supporting performer is Berra, a Black, queer, transgender musical artist who calls D.C. home.

  20. found out any new bull stuff G ??? any bobby prichter stuff . joke . ask a drunk on 42nd get better advice than ewave

    • Yo Lenora,

      How you like me now Bisnatch? Putting out FIREs with GASOLINE!

      Can you say Viva ?

      Que the spiders from mars -https://youtu.be/n-VfQLIrwX0?

  21. This looks a lot like my daily regimen, I just don’t mix it all up. And I use more bio-available forms.

    https://www.verywellhealth.com/golden-milk-benefits-11711306

    Found a good source of black ginger extract at modest cost. Polyphenols or sources of polyphenols which are anti-inflammatory and may have anti-cancer activity:
    Curcumin
    ECGC
    Black ginger rhizome
    Quercitin

    The anti-inflammatory and anti-cancer polyphenols tend to cluster.

    There are many others, but these are common, and readily available. I also use more common ginger. Some of the broad spectrum polyphenol blends may be of benefit.

    Latest anti-inflammatory regimen is to take 20 ml of deep sea anchovy fish oil, and 5 ml or so of very high polyphenol olive oil at onset of burning pain or bedtime, whichever comes first. Not a miracle cure, but the combination taken together seems to be helping.

    • Dr. Steven Gundry advocates taking a couple tablespoons of Moroccan Olive oil. The Moroccan stuff has the highest polyphenols content. Difficult growing conditions stimulate the trees to produce more polyphenols.

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