The holiday-shortened week isn’t just about fireworks and family gatherings. Beneath the surface, markets are entering one of those rare periods where history, liquidity, and human psychology may all be lining up in uncomfortable ways. This week I take a hard look at an intriguing correspondence between today’s market structure and the weeks leading into the 1929 collapse—not as a prediction, but as a reminder that markets often rhyme long before they repeat.
The main feature introduces a concept borrowed from electronics: settling time. Oscillators don’t instantly stabilize after a disturbance—they ring, overshoot, and gradually find equilibrium. Markets may behave much the same way after holidays, geopolitical shocks, or major economic surprises. If you’ve ever wondered why price action can seem irrational after long market closures, this engineering perspective offers a fresh way to think about what may really be happening beneath the charts.
Also in this week’s report: new ChartPack analysis, updated market timing models, a look at why vacations may matter far more than tourism statistics suggest, and a philosophical exploration of what I call the Disney Ontology—an unexpected look at Walt Disney as one of history’s great systems engineers and what his “domains of life” can teach us about investing, decision-making, and the journey through our own lives. It may be one of the most unusual—and enjoyable—reports we’ve published in quite a while.
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George,
Just a reminder, the 13 Colonies Special Event starts today at 9am Eastern. You can go to their website and see the rules and download a log sheet if you want to join in. It will run from today until July 7th.
Yo Robinson,
Best be getting back on the trail..
The story trail about Vacations. Who goes on vacation – People, Where is one of the best places and times to be meeting NEW People. New NRG, new ideas, new views on things political or otherwise. Yerp – vacations are great a place to collect more data.
Even presidents club trips are like that – great all expense paid trip to Caribbean, frenchmans reef fav. Not only do you meet new Sales Pro’s, and garner juicy tidbits of information, but able to establish relationship (s) with some big C-level muckitymucks. Marketplace freeloaders riding on coattails of high performance Sales team members. C-level Guys and Girls just luv hanging out with the high performers, as that is usually where the action is.
So recharge and refresh – absolutely, if you dont feel like that after a Vacation you are prolly doing “IT” wrong. Speaking of which – dont be that guy. If unsure about an entrance, try using an indicator like baby powder to find the right one…and if that large, might wanna consider tying a board across Ure backside..safety 1st dont ya know. Doesn’t take much to drown a person.
* Vacation, not to be confused with R&R, which in tbs world stands for “Rape & Revenge”, which come to think of it, is prolly what comes next after the scheduled destruction.
Can you feel it ? Its right around the corner, helps if youse have a fistfull of dollas..that new york mood -https://youtu.be/D_hvAp23sOk?
Always thought those dudes were GAY, back in HS years – still think that.
off to the fireworks store – its Christmas in July in Lancaster County, where tbs can walk in a fireworks store at 11:30 AM – walk out 20 minutes later with cart full of EXPLOSIVE Arial Devices, look up across parking lot, and see a Amish Guy in horse drawn buggy at picking up his bag o burgers from the WENDY’s drive thru window, all the same time as a cold .40 is pressing against my waist.
Is this the greatest country in the world or WHAT?
re: “The Emerald City”, Dublin, Oh.
feat: Amish & stogie folklore
Dublin in Ohio is apparently named after the Irish birthplace of one its 19th century cofounders. As chance would have it, Wendy’s Restaurants is headquartered in Dublin. According to Wiki, its corporate history traces to 1884 with a pair of German brothers who achieved wealth importing and manufacturing cigars. The largest shareholder of Wendy’s current day parent company is a Republican-supporting multi-billionaire based in New York. One of his grand-daughters happens to be a daughter-in-law of recording superstar and fashion designer Posh Spice.
Happy Canada Day to all Canadians both north and south of the 49th!
Made a mental note to myself:
In case I run out of fun stuff to do this week, my TV cable provider is offering a 6 hour long UFC250 package for $69.99. That’s Canadian dollars too, Woot! Woot!
That Billionaire cannot revive Wendy’s without REAL MEAT PUT BACK IN THEIR BURGERS, AND REAL POTATOES IN THEIR FRENCH FRIES.
THE RESTAURANT SUCKS.
Well hold the phone there: Their core burger patties are made from 100% beef, meaning:
No fillers (like soy or breadcrumbs)
No artificial binders
No “pink slime” (ammonia-treated lean beef trimmings), which they explicitly rejected years ago
Wendy’s has built part of its brand identity around this. You’ll often see their marketing line about “fresh, never frozen beef” for most U.S. locations (though there are some logistical exceptions in very remote stores).
What “real beef” means in practice
It’s still:
Ground beef formed into patties
Cooked on a grill or broiler
Standard fast-food processing (not farm-to-table, but not reconstituted meat either)
The honest nuance
“Real beef” doesn’t automatically mean “high-end beef.” It’s:
USDA-inspected beef
Typically a blend of cuts chosen for consistency, fat content, and cost efficiency
So yes—real cow, real beef, real burger patties. Just processed in the normal industrial fast-food way. Meaning from animal parts you may not care for…and they may have non-beef offerings and when it comes to fries, Wendy’s is less chemical than McDs which uses both dextrose (for color) and sodium acid pyrophosphate (to prevent greying).
Still, we’ve gone to burgers at home from credible 93/7 higher gradce burger fixings and potatoes done in the airfryer with some Kansas city fries salt on them…
Those Kraut brothers you speak of came from banking world. Ole Herman was sent to Cuba to manage business for a german firm. Dude bought the local cigar factory he lived nearby to. Fast forward to the War to end all wars, and we see those same krautons (salad fixings) involved in german intelligence…DVD? That intelligence scheisse was not good for business, for a long while.
Regardless – H. Upmann still makes some very tasty stiks, that I order whenever they are in stock. -http://www.havanacigarsbelize.com/
Ask for Carlos, he is the MAN.
FLC @ cannabis cup #15 -Smoke Em, Smoke em, Smoke em if got em..https://youtu.be/pFVf2paYpvo?
re: Tourism Ireland
feat: “Ireland Goes Beyond”
Leaving smoky skies of Kyiv behind, the Ukrainian presidential jet arrived in Dublin under overcast conditions. Ireland’s term for Presidency of the EU Council begins today at Dublin Castle which dates to 1228. Its construction had been precipitated with the arrival of Anglo-Norman invaders in 1169.
The invited Servant of the People leader posted video clips of his fiery speech to those gathered. However the “Irish Independent” featured a local leader of Irish opposition party People Before Profit who lamented Ireland’s anticipated “cave in to the EU” and “militarisation of Europe”. Separately the “Irish Examiner” welcomed the Ukrainian cause while taking note of the Aughinish Alumina refinery in Limerick. Apparently the Russian oligarch-owned entity allegedly exports most of its product towards Russian war machine purposes.
Speaking of Limerick – but not in limerick verse made famous by a 19th century Englishman – Transport for Ireland’s website offers various means of reaching today’s Kings of Leon concert production at Thomond Park. The stadium is named after the Kingdom of Limerick’s 12th century Irish name. Their clan the Delcassians allegedly were allied with Roman Britannic usurper Emperor Magnus Maximus who was defeated at the Battle of Poetovio in Slovenia in 388 a.d.
Grandpa Leon’s grandsons, Kings of Leon, are said to be 25% Irish. The band shares recording their label with Katy Perry, and one imagines they will be selecting catalogue gems including off their 2024 album “Can We Please Have Fun”.
Damned Well Done! While I’m on the downhill side of this ride, it’s been filled with adventures, some good, and some bad, but I have learned from them. Great post to make us think about where we’ve been, and where we’re going.
Yeah – fun ny thing here – thought about renaming bran ding uban the World Observers Center – b ecause there are so many of us here… LOOB, BIC, Ray, Andy…(cant list everyone – be an all day project) butd the whole point of life is obsersver, behold, learn and appreciate the ride…
George. You wrote something to me a few months ago when I was entering a particularly difficult time of my life. I have kept it close by and think it is worth sharing here.
“The Durable wealth is what you carry in your spirit.
It’s the knowledge, humor, and joy that travel light — even into a hospital bed or nursing home.
If you can still laugh and love on the way out, you’ve already beaten the house.
Property? Gold? Federal Reserve notes?
Mere piffles.
If you don’t have your joy packed for the trip, you’ve played the game and lost.”
Tnat actually appears in our Visitor’s Center as an orientation – it’s here https://urbansurvival.com/visitor-center/ in original form but very glad it is remembered and hopefully is still useful.
Amen
Truth is George, even if our relationship ended tomorow? id always know what it felt like to be The Luckyest Man in The World.
https://x.com/i/status/2072409803872403801
my buddies were giving me shit about driving around in a 2016 volkswagon passat with dents all over it, a head light out and idaho plates. they said why dont you go get a new lifted 4×4 truck. you can afford it!
i said why would i do that? i might end up with a fat wife, that thinks farting on me is foreplay and only fucks me once a week.
she dont care what i drive. besides id rather keep that $100,000 all in cash in my safe.
some young stud got out of his lifted jeep, started flirting with her as she was walking out the tribal smoke place looking like that. she smiles and says awe man, you are doing it all wrong. you cant get a girl like me in that??? you need a car like this man. then jumped in the passenger side and grabbed my face and shoved her tounge down my mouth. i laughed so hard. we backed up. he just stood there stairing. and we waved and drove off. hahahahaha
like i said, there aint none of that shit on the news that concerns me. i live in a totally different world without all them catch click bait headlines.
until we meet again,
I Win with God within.
re: Passat (ger: “Trade Wind”)
Sorry George, it seems the VW factory is currently not offering Passat 4 door station wagon models in yellow colours.
The cheese used in times of poor crops and famines…..POTATO..CHEESE..
Potato cheese showed up in Europe during times when food was scarce and milk was limited.
German and Swiss farmers learned to mix warm mashed potatoes into clabber based curds to stretch a tiny amount of milk into a larger, formable cheese. They kept their clabber alive by back slopping — saving a spoonful from yesterday’s batch to restart today’s milk — a simple survival trick that kept families fed through long winters and lean seasons. It’s the same mindset I live by: rebuild what’s missing, use what you have, and turn scarcity into strength. Improvise, Adapt, Overcome…
A modern survival style cheese that rebuilds weak milk using egg yolk (emulsifier), starch (binder), and mashed potatoes (yield + body)… that is a variation of the cheese called Quark..
making potato cheese using the egg yolk and starch method, you still need to add a splash of buttermilk and a pinch of calcium chloride. The buttermilk brings the live cultures that help the curd set, and the calcium chloride restores the mineral balance that store milk loses during processing. When you heat the milk with yolk and starch, it thickens into a soft curd, and the clabber culture spreads evenly through it. Once it sets, you blend in warm mashed potatoes and reheat until the whole mixture pulls together into a glossy, formable cheese you can cut and press. It’s simple survival food — rebuild what’s missing, stretch what you have, and turn scarcity into strength. Improvise, Adapt, Overcome.( you can add the food coloring if you have it..)
2 cups milk (fresh or reconstituted)
2 egg yolks
1 tbsp cornstarch or potato starch
1–2 cups warm mashed potatoes
1 tsp salt ( or more its your tastebuds)
1–2 tbsp butter (optional, adds richness by adding the butter fat back into the milk)
1–2 tbsp clabber or cultured buttermilk (for the live cultures from the last piece of grated cheese in the clabber)
Build the base
Whisk egg yolks, starch, and a splash of cold milk until smooth and lump free….
Heat the milk
Warm the remaining milk to 160–170°F — hot but not boiling… then let the temp drop to 80 degrees…
Add yolk mixture
Slowly pour the yolk starch mixture into the hot milk while stirring. It will thicken into a custard?like base….
Add clabber
Stir in clabber or cultured buttermilk. This distributes live cultures through the mixture and helps the curd set…. ( use clobber instead of vinegar, rennet, or lemon juice.. it takes clobber a while to set the curd)
Once the curd has formed and cut scoop the curd into hour mixer or blender..
Add potatoes
Fold in 1–2 cups of warm mashed potatoes. Mix until fully blended…it has to be smooth otherwise it will taste gritty.
If you need to add some of the whey..
Reheat to bind the cheese curd potato mix..
Return the pot to low heat and stir until the mixture pulls together into a glossy, elastic mass — this is your cheese forming..
Form the cheese
Pack the hot mixture into a mold, bowl, or loaf pan. Press lightly to shape.
let it sit in the refrigerator for 12–24 hours. Slice, spread, or pan fry as desired…
This is the egg?yolk and starch version of potato cheese similar to the ones used by people during famine and times of extreme food shortage — a survival recipe that rebuilds weak milk using yolk for emulsifying power and starch for binding.
Adding clabber spreads live cultures through the mixture so it sets like a soft curd. Once you blend in warm mashed potatoes and reheat it, the whole thing pulls together into a glossy, formable cheese you can press into a loaf. It’s simple, practical, and born from the same old-world logic: rebuild what’s missing, stretch what you have, and turn scarcity into strength… adding the butter adds the butter fat that is stripped away from the cream ..
1 stick melted butter mixed together conversion reintroducing the fat back into the milk making it cream again..
Hard Tack
2 cups flour
1 cup water
1–2 tsp salt
mix it kneed it then let it set for 20 minutes.. roll it out to half inch thickness..cut into squares..
Use a fork to poke holes across the surface — this helps it dry evenly..
Bake low and slow
Bake at 300°F for 30–40 minutes, flip, then bake another 30–40 minutes.
You want it dry, not golden..
Turn off the oven and let the hardtack sit inside until completely cool and dry.
The drier it is, the longer it lasts
I will tell ya the Story of when she fell in love with me. it was our 3rd date. only for the hopeless romantics on Urban Survival.
we are on our date. A cop pulls me over. comes up to the window and says, You know why i pulled ya over? i said no sir. he said i saw you have a headlight out. i said oh yeah. you are right. that headlights been out for 2 years now. he said, 2 years! well are you going to get it fixed? i said i been thinking about it but nobody has complained but you.
he said You been drinking? i said no sir. should i start? he said start what? i said Drinking. That is your Idea.
Cop says, Drivers Licence and Insurance. i said what for? He said I pulled you over for having a head light out. i said, they dont have insurance for head lights. if they did? id probably got it fixed by now.
cop says you know what? you have a good night sir. i said you too. He walked back to his cruiser and left.
she turns to me and said, I never met anyone like you. i never seen anyone talk their way out of a ticket like that. and you were being totally honest the whole time. I think I am in love with you.
i said oh shit. that cop was right! she said about what? i said, It is time to start drinking. hahahaha.
dont worry. last time i started drinking we had a world wide pandemic. i wont be drinking anytime soon.
God listens and answers, here is anothe sample, wild Bald Eagle story/video
really short video, a few seconds
https://x.com/RealFletch17/status/2072471945761685567?s=20
(“I will tell ya the Story of when she fell in love with me. it was our 3rd date.”)
hmm..just an observation…But…I had to laugh a little at the idea of someone “falling in love” on the third date. Most people don’t fall in love that fast — what they feel early on is looks, attraction, or the excitement of heading in the same direction. Real love doesn’t show up in the first few dinners. Real love comes from the daily grind, working through problems, relying on each other, and choosing to stay even when life gets routine. Over time, both people learn what the other needs, emotionally and physically, and intimacy becomes part of the rhythm of life. The real secret is simple….when the routine becomes normal and both decide to stay anyway — that’s when love actually happens. There during the fall..there during the celebration..
A hand up ..
God bless Andy I hope you stick with this one..life is short..health takes a turn ..staying during the hard parts..