Tariff Dream or Debt Scheme? Markets, Inflation & What’s Next

TL;DR: Something here just doesn’t add up. Tariff dividend?  BBC flounders rom the top. And with cold temps? Personal appearance changes. That’s Monday for you: tight, bright, and right.

Developer Economics

Twenty years ago, if you had asked me to explain the difference between being a sci-fi writer and covering finance/economics?  Would have been a simple answer:  “One is fiction, the other not.”

Today that’s flipping. Sci-Fi is becoming real. Finance? Not so much.  And apparently it’s contagious.  As Sunday, Donald Trump started pitching $2,000 per American as a tariff “dividend.”  That’s when we did a quick “planet check.” Has Phillip K. Dick been reincarnated at Treasury?

Suddenly, sounds like a New Release – Sci-Fi on Amazon is showing on Forbes:  Trump Promises $2,000 Tariff Dividend Payments For Americans.

Let’s do the math while I go looking for the ViseGrips.  This could be a lucid dream, you know…  (We’ve been driven to Channel Locks, now and then, too…)

The Budget Lab at Yale estimates that all tariffs currently in place (as of 2025) will raise about $2.5 trillion over 2026-2035 (net ~ $2.0 trillion) — which is an average of ~ $200 billion per year over ten years.

With help from my two “silicon intelligence’s”  we got to work.

  • Suppose the U.S. population eligible is ~ 250 million people (excluding “high-income”).

  • At $2,000 each, that’s $500 billion total.

  • If tariff revenue is ~ $195 billion (for the full year) and maybe only a portion of that is new revenue that could be used for the dividend, then there’s a large mismatch: $500 billion required vs ~$195 billion total collected.

  • Even if all of the $195 billion were directed to the payout (which is unlikely because some tariff revenue already funds other government functions), it still falls well short of $500 billion.

  • If only the incremental (new) revenue from higher tariffs is counted – say ~$160-200 billion – the shortfall is even greater.

What’s really going on?  Seriously?  (Remember the movie line “You can’t handle the Truth!”

“The human analyst sees a muddle-through way cooler than Ponzi.  If you need to “Weimar-away” a runaway National Debt, issue money to the Public – they will spend it into the system, devaluing their own currency.  10-years from now, the debt has been diluted to some manageable level…and there’s no popular uprising because everyone got paid-off.  Slick Developer Economics move, huh?”

[AI coaches are yelling from the sidelines: “Tone: right now you’re 80% sardonic. You could pull in 10% more gravitas to give readers a sense that you actually respect the stakes, even as you’re laughing in the aisles. But I’m in serious WTF mode, this being Monday and all.  So let’s rocket ahead…]

Welcome to the “Trumpmar Republic”

We don’t advocate irresponsible finance. BUT, the reality goes like this:  We have runaway debt. We can’t seem to grow it away and that leaves papering it over.

As we were modeling this morning with our silicon pals, hope for sanity remained.

“This isn’t hurtling us toward a “Trumpmar Republic” collapse—hyperinflation requires systemic failure, not just one policy gimmick. It’s more like experimental economics: tariffs as a revenue raiser, dividends as voter bait, with inflation as a side effect to nibble at debt.

Slick? Maybe, if it boosts growth without backlash. Risky? Absolutely—could add 1-2% to inflation annually, per economists, eroding purchasing power for the very folks getting the checks. In a best-case, it’s Reaganomics 2.0: protect industries, cut taxes, grow out of debt. Worst-case, it accelerates inequality and fiscal cliffs, but Weimar-level doom? Nah, we’d see Fed hikes and market revolts long before trillion-dollar bills.”

Still, start on the “measured hyper work-out” with $2,000 this year – maybe as a tax break next April – but then set up a much larger “giveaway” the following year as a promotion of a new US digital currency. Everyone would participate (to get “free money”) which means we’d all get our “palms crossed with silver” to fund our own purchasing power dilution!  Why, it’s genius!!!

“The deeper tell, of course, is that nobody in the room is actually confused about the arithmetic. These people can operate a spreadsheet; they know $195 billion doesn’t magically metamorphose into $500 billion without duct tape and divine intervention. Which means the mismatch isn’t a bug — it’s a signal.

When the numbers don’t line up, but the promise goes out anyway, the smart money assumes the objective isn’t accounting. It’s psychology. It’s narrative engineering. It’s the kind of “Developer Economics” where you don’t fix the underlying code, you just ship the patch and hope the players don’t read the version notes.

And that leads to the uncomfortable truth under the floorboards: monetary dilution isn’t catastrophic if it’s wrapped as a party favor. You shower the public with what feels like found money, they sprint to spend it, the velocity kicks up, and the debt—your debt, the nation’s debt—gets quietly shaved down by the oldest trick in the inflationist toolkit.

Nobody riots because the checks cleared. Nobody examines the ledger because dopamine trumps discipline every time. It’s monetary euthanasia disguised as prosperity. PKD would absolutely file this one under “near-future dystopias,” but in 2025? It’s starting to look like standard operating procedure.”

Wow~  Mind-boggling, ain’t it? But it’s gasoline on the fire being lit down at Wall Street and Broad…

“Future’s So Bright…”

The dips buying the dips is in our lasers now:  Dow Futures are up nearly 200, NASDAQ up 350 and gold? Bouncing $77 while Silver’s about to cross the $50 barrier again.

Even BTC has crawled over $106K which means we’re stuck on two “homework problems” – in addition to 4 links, three eggs, and two toasts that make up health-food when it’s cold in the woods.

First: Is there news leakage?  Or just others seeing the inflationary signaling implicit in “giving people their own money to spend again?”

Second problem (farmed out to silicon children) “Reader Hank notices Mercury Retrograde starts today and we’re wondering if there’s a retrograde relationship to stock averages?”

“To test, I pulled historical Mercury Retrograde dates from 2016-2024 (about 29 periods, each roughly 3 weeks long) and cross-checked them against daily S&P 500 performance (using SPY as a proxy for the index). Method: Grabbed closing prices, calculated logarithmic daily returns (standard for smoothing compounding effects: return = ln(today’s close / yesterday’s close)). Flagged trading days as “retrograde” if they fell within those periods. Then, compared means, standard deviations, and ran a Welch’s t-test (handles unequal variances and sample sizes) to see if returns differ significantly. Total trading days analyzed: ~2,263 over 9 years.

“How we got here: The t-test formula compares the two groups’ means, accounting for their spreads and sizes—essentially, (mean1 – mean2) / sqrt(var1/n1 + var2/n2). A negative t-stat shows retrograde periods underperform, and the p-value (0.03) suggests this isn’t pure chance (below the common 0.05 threshold for “statistical significance”). In plain English: Over this stretch, stocks dipped slightly during retrogrades (annualized, that’s like -14% vs. +19% non-retro, but daily swings dominate).”

In other words, don’t bet a house payment when you think the top from the rally (likely today, which could turn into a “turnaround Tuesday”) tempt you into going short.  The market and weather align with a simply directive for the aware: chill.

Woke Goes to Woe

Oh look! A new BBC drama: Tim Davie resigns as BBC director general after accusations of ‘serious and systemic’ bias in coverage.

What’s interesting here isn’t just the selective editing of political clips — it’s the broader demographic backdrop nobody seems willing to discuss factually. In 1951, the UK was roughly 98% white; by the most recent census that share is just over 80%. Meanwhile, Russia — often painted as monolithic — has shifted far less in the same period, from roughly 90% European-Slavic at the end of WWII to around 80-85% today even with internal migration from Central Asia.

These aren’t value judgments. They’re trend lines — the same way you’d look at market share in a sector chart or long-term shifts in consumer behavior. Correlations matter, particularly when societies are stressed, and pretending demographic change isn’t a driver of internal political mood swings is a disservice to analysis and history alike.

Well, at least until historical revisionism comes along and tells us none of this happened the way the numbers say it did.  Lots of that going around.

Monday News Puke

“Say, what platen are we on, anyway?”   (*In traditional printing presses, the platen is the flat metal plate that presses paper against the type or printing surface to transfer ink. Or, think of it as the ‘drum’ in your laser-printer without the disposable parts.)

Don’t hold your breath: There’s talk that dems may come to their senses (or learn how to read polls) and end GovDown this week. Government shutdown latest: Senate advances a new bill to end the shutdown. Here’s what’s in it. We’ll believe it when we see it.

Meanwhile, walking, bus, or train, thanks: U.S. Transportation Secretary May Use Uncertified Air Traffic Controllers, “If I Can”.  As a pilot, shooting an approach is not like shooting dice, right?

Adventures in Lah-Lah Land: Gov. Newsom subbing in for Trump at COP30 climate change conference in Brazil.  Doesn’t this comprise “When Hopeless meets Useless?”

Personal health alert! Sharing this because a lot of reader interest in anti-aging has been along the lines of melatonin at night to improve human growth hormone release during opening hours of sleep – to speed repairs and what-not.  So do check out Melatonin’s Dark Side: Heart Failure Risk. We took melatonin off long ago, but kept the precursor 5-HTP in our night stack.

Lost in Space files: Blue Origin launch of NASA Mars probes on New Glenn rocket delayed by weather, next try set for Nov. 12 | Space

And while you’re up there: Saturn’s icy moon Enceladus may hide a long-lived ocean that could support life. That’d be “life” like slurry or goo. Not someone to pass the tab to…we think…

Around the Ranch: Sailing Stiks’ – Winter Uniform

Overnight on the Iridium from sailing reader Stiks…

“Just entering a huge marked restricted area south of New Caledonia whee trawling and dredging are forbidden. It goes for hundreds of miles and leaves French territory and continues into Oz. We got buzzed by a propellor plane yesterday, low altitude, probably patrolling, thankfully no bombs! Our iridiium system is allowing this communication and the huge calm we have experienced is giving me lots of time to write and think and cook good stuff, and read and nap. Life is good out here. No worries about anything.

Our odd boat is performing beyond expectation and imagination. Today the wind is showing signs of getting into a regular trade wind pattern, even shifting NE. We may have to gybe to keep going West. With flat smooth water, we had some totally amazing lightning shows, one big ark erupted again and again, probably fifty miles way, then gave a huge final burst that seemed to encompass the entire 10 mile cloud, like the conclusion of a fireworks show, then went completely dark, nothing after that. For hours. No light at all. Pretty amazing. All the while, the relatively full moon continued to shine on it all.”

Their GRIB today nearby is “NC 100nm S (?23.2°S, 165.5°E) — next 48h
WIND: ESE–SE 12–18 kt (ocnl 20 kt in PM squalls). Nights easing 8–12 kt. Trend to E 10–15 kt late D2.”

Winter Uniforms

The expected high temp out in the woods today is 55F. So into our “winter uniforms”.  Elaine’s legs are about to disappear for the season as short-shorts give way to warmer with the merc is down to 32F.  We assume you know that mercury freezes at –37.89 °.  Elaine freezes about 65F.

My “summer uniform” is always a white fishing shirt and nearly white khaki pants.  Reason?  Minimum solar heat absorption – and I’m known for my “cooler take” on things.  Now? Winter uniform: Long sleeve work denim farmer shirt, Wranglers optional.

But the Big change?  The mixing valve in the shower is moving counter clockwise.  I’ve set up an observatory in the shower to track it’s movements while also showing related celestial objects…

ShopTalk Sunday is here if you missed it.

Write when you get rich, or Spring has sprung…

George@Ure.net

Newbie?  Hit the Visitor Center or the Article Atlas (not related to Charles)

51 thoughts on “Tariff Dream or Debt Scheme? Markets, Inflation & What’s Next”

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  1. Peeper ?!!!!!

    We got a PEEPER, why G you dirty dog, did install recording equipment as well ? Lettuce hope so, as I know several posters on here from midwestern states that just love “peeping” on Womens Showers, really who can blame em ?

    Hotlips in the shower -https://youtu.be/vd95IR5jJ90?si=WlWwH0y5KEO4cbEy -easy Loob, easy does it.

  4. So, most people/sheeple don’t know how to do math, they only want the promise of mooolah in their pockets with no regards to what/how/bottom line really is. There is not really any decent political party anymore for the country and it’s people they are all bad, just some worse in some ways than the other one. LOL My opinion we are doomed in so many ways just a matter of time when it all falls down and who knows how THAT will play out. I am not being pessimistic, just seeing reality in the raw.

  5. GU : the sensational Tariff “dividend” isn’t meant for me and you Sir. Put your slide rule in park on ciphering outcomes. If anything, The Donald is a master marketer. Should any distribution occur, ever, it’s akin to the Government taking your money then allowing recoup at tax time.

    Though no fan of Governmental give-a-ways (have we learned nothing from the Covid checks?), while doubtful I’m in the recipient group, should a credit be available I’d pledge it to a go-fund-them pool for ATC folks. If it’s all made up can’t we just make up with imaginary dosh?

    ATL: another 3-4″ wet snowfall while we slept. Mother Earth is clearing walks and roadways (sorta) until she sleeps in the freeze. I’m afraid Elaine would need to go into hibernation. 65F is what the thermostat is set to. Sunny 25F outside. Acclimating early times are a little painful.

    Truly, none of this matters all that much. Brighten a day. Call a Vet.

    On the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, 1918, fighting in WWI officially stopped after Germany signed an armistice agreement with Allies earlier in the day.

    ~ Egor ~~

    ps – thanks for the updates from Iridium Stiks!

    • At roughly 15 minutes past the Eleventh Hour and British infantry officer crawled out of his trench and started walking across no-man’s land towards the German trenches.
      A few minutes later a German office came out of his trench and started walking towards the British officer.
      They met roughly halfway and stopped., facing each other – seeing the enemy face to face for the first time.
      The British officer unslung his rifle and held it out for the German officer to take. He did. The German officer did the same.
      They then shook hands and together tossed the other’s rifle away into the mud. The trenches started to empty and British and German soldiers met, for the first time in the middle that horrific killing field.
      The two officers remained friends and pen pals for many years – until the outbreak of yet another war. WW2., is when they lost track of each other.

      Research has found that the German officer was removed from his home by the Gestapo at the beginning of WW2 and was never heard from again. The British officer died from complication from surgery., due to an ‘injury’., a few months after the Germans invaded Poland.

  6. the planned “crisis” continues (Govtmint shutdown) …. then a “deal” will be announced and UP UP UP the markets will go (just my guess) ……. as in life, this too shall end, maybe … but when? ……….. good luck all … stay warm

  7. Thanks for the coordinates – I did not know that New Caledonia was French. Thought they were totally independent.., now.

  8. He’s never done what he says he’ll do. But if he says he WON’T do something, it’s a dead cert he absolutely will.

  9. If the Supremes determine that the Tariffs are unlawful and that El Presidente over-stepped his Executive Boundary, then the whopping $2,000 dividend is null and void and Trump has actually successfully created his newest enemy – the Supreme Court – more decisiveness. Which was his goal anyway.

  10. I will share a small bit of my flawed logic. It has worked quite nicely for me over the years. It stems from the underlying personal-principle of : I don’t care !
    Lots of talk about the national debt.., just crossing the $38 trillion mark., but if you care to dig a little you will find that is closer to $126 trillion.., or was that $156 trillion., what’s a few trillion amongst friends., right ? .., and I don’t care.
    Inflation goes up 5% ? OK.., time to make a few adjustments., it’s not the end of my world. Just the end of filet mignon for a while., or until I can cut a better deal with my local rancher. Trust me – a flat iron steak, gently barbecued in teriyaki sauce is a great dinner !
    No.., it’s not “all about me”., but I know, deep down – at the roots of my soul – that there is absolutely nothing I can do about it – except adapt. Make changes.., and motor on down the road.
    You can jump up and down on your social pogo stick if you so choose., decrying the economic hardship you are forced to endure. “Or”., you adapt., make changes, rework your trade-n-barter – how about “plant a garden”? Even if it’s in five gallon buckets on the back deck. It’s doable – I just checked, I didn’t say it would be easy., but if you stop complaining long enough to look around you in a new light – you can manage it. Just add another notch to your belt, and don’t forget to check the power level on your solar batteries., and soldier on. Oh., and save up and buy an extra cord of fire wood., even if you don’t really need it. Think of it as “New Wave Insurance”.
    I don’t care.., what the Federal Reserve does., fascinating to watch and see peoples reaction.., [.., or my own reaction to other people’s reaction is fascinating at times.] or Trump [ et al ] promising cash / credit to the minions.., so? It will accomplish/affect very, very little in the way I live.
    Just the slightest bit of – “I don’t care” – applied judiciously -can help make your life a wee bit happier and easier.

    “Stay Frosty !”

  11. “Tariff ”

    Trump is a trickle-ist proving trickle down works!

    After sleeping on it I’d go for the Carnival Barker raising tariffs to 500%, giving 20,000 tap credits each, every 500th person gets a $20,000 kitchen suite voucher and Musky becomes a multi-trillionaire. You?

    1% of the recipients placed in new EV lotteries, new leather furniture…. hardwood floor installs. 2,000 tap credit bonuses for each 8k Flock cam installed on our properties.

  12. Yep apparently the Senate fencesitters saw the error of their ways and thought it much more important to cash in again err I mean help the general population as those that crossed over receive large contributions from said airline industry.

    • No the Senate held a vote last night and that vote was 60-40 but that was procedural has to formal go thru today I believe. Then to the House.

  14. re: Cue the lights
    feat: “a Dream & Scheme”

    Regrettably it appears a recent sit-down interview between the President of the Ukraine and “The Guardian” suffered interruption. An ordinarily continuous power supply to palatial offices in Kyiv experienced a blackout according to “Wartime Media”.

    As chance would have it, the Ukrainian nationalist website of EMPR Media (Euro Maiden Public Responsibility) now offers detailed reports concerning a co-owner of the President of Ukraine’s production company. The businessman has allegedly decamped to Austria (“Eastern Realm”) following serious corruption allegations to do with the power and nuclear industry.

    EMPR Media news website looks to have materialized around the commencement of the 2022 Russan invasion. Its earlier now redirecting “Ukraine Front Lines” website perhaps arose at the beginning of the 2014 EuroMaiden protests. The group’s early pictured foundations appear to have promoted the extreme right Ukrainian nationalism of neo-nazi Stepan Bandera along with Banderite flag paraphernalia. Public digital access to EMPR Media seems only possible via a “Gmail” address. A public physical maildrop address is alleged to exist in Mount St. Albans, Wales, United Kingdom.

    St. Alban (Latin: “white”) is said to be the first British martyr having been beheaded in Verulamium (now St. Alban’s), Roman Britain in the 3rd century. Prior to Roman conquest, the area had been under control of the Catuvellauni (“War Chiefs”) tribe. According to “Wikipedia”, it is typical for St. Alban’s feast day celebrations to include a puppet show.

    • re: New Caledonia
      feat: Hal9000 tech circa 1772

      Arguably the most valuable piece of equipment boarded by Captain Cook on his second world voyage was the No. 4 constructed of a series of 5 Kendal Watches used for determining near-precise longitude. It was entrusted to the voyage’s Astronomer, Mr. William Wales. His 400+ page volume of neat, handwritten notes is digitized. Interestingly the explorers arrived at New Caledonia (“New Scotland”) on Sunday September 4, 1774 with a solar eclipse happening shortly thereafter. Mr. Wales recorded eclipse and lattitude degree measurements. A flukey coincidence is if one subtracts the former from the latter, it might suggest coordinates approaching the Big Island of Hawaii where Captain Cook met his end on February 14, 1779? Here is a link to William Wales’ notebook starting with the New Caledonia visit digitized by The University of Cambridge:

      https://cudl.lib.cam.ac.uk/view/MS-RGO-00014-00058/293

  15. Figures do Lie, and Liars do Figure.

    That being said – word in the desert is that Barbara-Anne is about 70 % completed, back to original level/stockpile of Hypersonic missiles and Drones. Latest twist on the original recipe said to include Bunker Busting tech in new Warheads.

    Ba ba ba BOMB IRAN ! ..now for something completely new and different..
    – The WHO ! https://youtu.be/gtv21VgUNy8?si=a1diXmEfFDEV2vFQ

    Says here israhell cannot wait any longer, they must clear out Hamas and Hizbollah fighters prior to massive assault on Iran like NOW.

    Next arial assault by israHELL on Iran will be the clarion call to wake up fuzzy headed sleeperz cells. US govmint knows this, and should start “Drills” up again in major Cities as way to condition the Ba-bas = You and Me very soonly.
    Dont let the current lull fool ya.

    • Ure has 2 reads There are three specific assertions to parse:

      Claim A: Israel has rebuilt hypersonic missile + drone stockpile to 70%

      Israel’s known hypersonic development is classified and limited.

      No open-source confirmation that Israel fields operational hypersonic missiles.
      (As of my latest reliable data, hypersonic programs exist, but stockpiles don’t.)

      If someone says “70% restocked,” it’s fabrication or rumor.

      Claim B: Israel upgrading to bunker-buster warheads

      This is plausible in general:
      Israel already fields bunker-buster-capable munitions (e.g., variants of GBU-28/GBU-39, indigenous penetrators).

      New development cycles? Always possible, but no evidence of a wholesale upgrade.

      Claim C: imminent large-scale air assault on Iran

      Historically, predictions of “imminent strike” occur in cycles—almost always without follow-through.

      Large-scale kinetic strike on Iran would require:

      diplomatic green lights

      U.S. posture shifts

      visible logistics

      coalition prep

      major ISR buildup

      Those indicators DO NOT match an “any moment” scenario.

      Sleeper cells “waking up” is a trope used in extremist chat rooms and fear-pushing narratives.

      As intel Signal (small):

      Concern about escalation exists.

      Israel and Iran tensions are real, and covert strikes happen.

      Noise (large):

      “70% restock” ? no credible source.

      “Hypersonic + drone combo” ? speculative.

      “Drills in major cities” ? routine but not predictive.

      “Sleeper cells waking” ? psychological warfare trope.

      Assessment:

      This looks like a mixture of rumor + ideological rhetoric, not vetted intel.
      High probability the source is pulling from MilTel chat channels, Telegram, or low-grade OSINT speculation.

      ? 4. How to interpret it operationally

      If you were an analyst:

      Ignore numeric claims without sourcing.

      Flag ideological bias: anti-Israel language, conspiratorial tone.

      Treat urgency cues (“NOW,” “must,” “wake up”) as emotional persuasion, not intel.
      LKowq Prob: Likely humint 2-5 steps removed, op bias

      • Iranian missile stocks at 70%

        Sourece/Aether is “source” of Humit, various “humits” all saw the same scheisse. Track record is impeccable, but you go with Ure digital-silicone prison, analog Radio guy.

  16. Guy #1: “I am fascinated by our governments similarity to the Roman Republic near it’s decline.”

    Guy #2: “Well.., good for you., Mr Smart Guy. But the only reason you know so is that you are from a privileged group.”

    Guy #1: “What group is that?”

    Guy #2:”Guys who read.”

    Guy #1: “I invite you to join our select group.”

    Guy #2: “Sorry. Too busy watching Netflix.”

  17. Hooray!

    “Donald Trump has pardoned Rudy Giuliani and several others implicated in attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. This group includes former chief of staff Mark Meadows, attorneys Sidney Powell and John Eastman. The pardon, described as “full, complete, and unconditional,” does not include Trump himself. Presidential pardons can be pre-emptive, applying to future legal issues.”

  19. ” Elaine freezes about 65F.”
    Local ham always gave his temperature reports relative to “Hawaiian Freezing” at 70F. It was 5 below this morning on that scale.

    Then there are these arctic eskimos that insist on living at 4k elevation at the volcano, where it was 46F this morning, and sometimes frosts the ground in the wintertime. Thanks, but I moved away from Wisconsin long ago.

  20. Seattle just entered “The Dark Days”. The self-proclaimed socialist, Wilson , just went ahead in the votes for Mayor. She has no leadership experience. She has never led a group larger than 20. She firmly believes that all public transport in the Seattle area should be free. She firmly believes that all homeless should have an apartment of the own.
    Seattle is tens of million in the red. The school district is tens of millions in the red and they have no idea how they will open the doors next year. The police department is way under funded and hundreds of officers short.
    She has given no plans, or even ideas on how the pay for all of this.

    Seattle will fall., starting just days after she is sworn-in. You can’t miss her. She does everything she can to look like a homeless waif who really doesn’t know how to dress herself.

    Good lord.., the socialists in Seattle have no idea what they have just done. I am so damn glad that I don’t live there !

  21. (It’s economic theater at its most surreal—the “big beautiful bill” handing ten grand to the wealthiest while quietly siphoning a grand a year from the working base. Inflation runs wild, Congress ships a trillion to a vacant warehouse, and the deficit balloons by a trillion every few weeks like it’s printing Monopoly money. The promised $2,000 isn’t relief—it’s a bribe to keep the gears turning, a rerun of Reaganomics, Bush bailouts, and Trump’s last-ditch stimulus. Weimar’s collapse might start to look like a Disneyland ride compared to this slow-motion unraveling. And yet, the solution seems to be more printing, more spectacle, more “stimulus”—as if the economy were a campfire that just needs another log, even as the forest burns., sounds like a New Release – Sci-Fi on Amazon is showing on Forbes: Trump Promises $2,000 Tariff Dividend Payments For Americans.
    Let’s do the math while I go looking for the ViseGrips. This could be a lucid dream, you know… (We’ve been driven to Channel Locks, now and then, too…)
    The Budget Lab at Yale estimates that all tariffs currently in place (as of 2025) will raise about $2.5 trillion over 2026-2035 (net ~ $2.0 trillion) — which is an average of ~ $200 billion per year over ten years.”)

    hmm.. let me put on my swanky turbine..It’s economic theater at its most surreal. The “big beautiful bill” hands ten grand to the wealthiest while quietly siphoning a grand a year from the working base. Inflation runs wild. Congress ships a trillion to a vacant warehouse. The deficit balloons by a trillion every few weeks like someone’s printing Monopoly money in the basement of the Capitol.And now, a $2,000 “tariff dividend”—not relief, but a bribe to keep the gears turning. A rerun of Reaganomics, Bush bailouts, Trump’s last-ditch stimulus. The economy is stalling, the noodle is falling apart, and the solution seems to be more printing, more spectacle, more “stimulus”—as if the economy were a campfire that just needs another log, even as the forest burns.
    Meanwhile, Yale—yes, Yale—emerges from its ivory tower with a Budget Lab estimate worth contemplating: $2.5 trillion in tariffs over a decade, netting $2 trillion. That’s $200 billion a year. Do the math while I go looking for the ViseGrips. This could be a lucid dream. We’ve been driven to Channel Locks before.
    And since I don’t have a swanky turbine and the wife won’t let me use her crystal ball, I’ve wrapped a pair of lady’s underwear around my noggin and balanced the kid’s basketball on top. The oracle is ready. The sports AR is about to speak. What I see is this: the noodle is unraveling, the sauce is burning, and the chefs are still arguing over who gets to stir.
    The biggest shock? Yale actually said something useful. The world must be ending. They lock their library so tight it squeaks. And now, even the oracle of idle sees it: the political class that ignored everything for decades is finally realizing this is worse than they thought.

    • I hope you mean you have a ‘turban’ on your head. UPS left your ‘turbine’ delivery on the runway in Louisville.

      • Lol lol lol..I thought women’s panties was a better choice for a turbine than a mans jock strap lol lol lol lol.. in the end its pretty obvious at least to me..Forget the crystal ball—I’ve got a pair of panties on my head and a basketball for a third eye, and even that setup sees it clearly: DJT and DOGE didn’t just stumble into a stimulus—they tripped over the truth. The economy’s in worse shape than the government admits, and the think tanks know it. They whisper that it could be turned around—if Congress acted like stewards instead of salesmen. But that’s the rub: if it doesn’t dent their driveway or delay their dinner, it doesn’t exist. The $2,000 per person isn’t policy—it’s a puddle on the table to keep the economic noodle from drying out until the job can be dumped. It’s Reaganomics with a crypto twist, a showroom smile masking a transmission that’s already slipped…. the situation has got to be more dire than what I even see..soon got the he’ll out of there.. DOGE hasn’t made any new announcements since they discovered almost as much as our deficit was mismanagement at its finest.. we put more into war rather than pull back..The situation feels more dire than even the headlines admit. DOGE went quiet after glimpsing the scale of mismanagement—almost rivaling the deficit itself. And while the public gets stimulus crumbs, the real spending flows into war, not repair. It’s a geopolitical gamble: if the wars succeed, maybe the dollar stays king, maybe the promised resources reignite fiat’s fading flame. But from here, it looks like a poor man buying a lottery ticket with rent money—hoping the jackpot saves the system. Congress rolls the dice, but it’s the working class that pays the ante. Stewardship has been replaced by spectacle, and the silence from those who know better is louder than any press release….The “big beautiful bill” was never about economic salvation in my opinion —it was just pure optics, a spectacle designed to shield the public that isn’t affected by the economic situations affecting the lower seventy percent of the citizens from the depth of the true crisis. It targeted the part of society least equipped to see the real-life scenario unfolding beneath the surface… runaway inflation, deficit spirals, and geopolitical gambles disguised as policy. The bill wasn’t crafted to fix the foundation—it was built to distract the elite and policy makers from the real cracks. Like a showroom car with a fresh coat of paint and a blown transmission filled with axe grease or sawdust, it gleamed just enough Makes the car run just a little smoother to keep the masses from asking why the engine won’t turn over after it fully seizes.. He really only has to keep the illusion intact for another year—just long enough to pass the baton before the spiral becomes undeniable. It’s not about fixing the foundation; it’s about staging the facade. The K-waves warned us decades ago: a long-wave winter was coming, a collapse not just of markets but of trust, value, and institutional memory. And here we are—propped up not by productivity or innovation, but by credit. Credit is the last scaffolding holding up the edifice, the only thing keeping the gears turning in a machine that’s already out of fuel. When that scaffolding gives, it won’t be a recession—it’ll be a reckoning. And those who saw it coming will be left holding not just the receipts, but the responsibility to remember how it happened… and wondering how did this happen..why did a loaf of bread jump to a billion dollars?

  22. NOAA has increased the x-flare probability to 35%, which is very high. The 4274 sunspot complex looks really large. It has the potential to deliver a really large CME.

  23. I take issue with the article stating that “long term” use of melatonin may lead to heart issues.
    “those who used melatonin long-term, defined as a year or more”
    They are studying what I call intermittent users…. Insomniacs who want to sleep and take a pill for it. Suddenly taking melatonin to ‘fix’ a problem like that in middle or late age is something the body may not readily adapt to.

    I take melatonin as a ‘hormone replacement (or restorative)” treatment, based on an old.. 30 years or more.. study from the Life Extension foundation. Wish I could find it now. But it notes that the body’s natural melatonin output begins to decline around age 40 and is practically nil by age 65 or 70. The recommendation was to begin taking 1mg melatonin nightly at age 40 and slowly ramp up the dosage over decades until you reach 65 or 70 and you should then be at 10mg nightly. The idea is to maintain youthful levels of melatonin on a constant basis to support the repair and maintenance of the body. That is what I have done. Since age 40 when I began at 1mg, slowly ramping up as I age and feel the need. I am at 10mg nightly now, and I feel fine, with no heart problems. Another person my age who suddenly starts taking 10mg will feel like they were hit with a hammer and have trouble waking in the morning. Me? I feel a bit ‘off’ if I miss my bedtime dose and don’t feel well rested the next day. Like the restorative overnight maintenance & repair was not done in the body.

    So I will stick to my regimen of 33 years now, and I don’t have heart failure yet.

    • greenscape… build solar towers hand out grid tie solar systems, build air wells in arid regions .

    • Built IT … and THEY will come!

      Brazil WANTS people to move to that area without saying so. It is clear from their infrastructure development throughout the Amazon.

      Same reasoning behind Panama wanting to finally build a road through the Darien Gap, a dangerous 66 mile obstacle for migrants traveling between South and North America. The Darien Gap is the LAST and only BIG gap between South and North America (t is on the border of Columbia and Panama).

      The Darien Gap is the ONLY break in the “Pan American Highway” left, which otherwise runs from Alaska to the southern reaches of Argentina but which if “filled in” would allow one in theory to drive in their personal car all the way from Alaska to Southern Argentina.

      While there are “formally” no plans to finish the Pan American Highway through the 66 mile gap the reality is that using other claimed reasons, so as to avoid attacks from environmentalists, Panama is steadily building roads and bridges further and further into the gap with two major bridges and many miles of road already under construction.

  27. Tucker Carlson horrified as geoengineering expert Dane Wigington identifies what’s really being sprayed in the skies.

    Hint: it’s not just condensation.

    Dane Wigington named seven troubling substances:

    1.) Aluminum
    2.) Barium
    3.) Strontium
    4.) Manganese
    5.) Surfactants
    6.) Polymer fibers
    7.) Graphene

    Tucker asked who the heck is doing this, and Wigington replied: “All roads lead to those who print the money,” naming DoD and DARPA as “coordinating entities.”

    https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1988006010552832071

    • According to You, others and editor – this Chemtrail nonesense is just that, NONESENSE.

      All you all been breaking my conspiratal ballz bout atmospheric spraying for lo these many years. What changed ? You finally notice the Nose on Ure face ? Finally figure out we havent used Water cooled Jet engines for decades ? Someone hit you on the head with a beer bottle..what gives?

      Cant be real/true unless a govmint authority says so, and of course
      unless electric G says so, it cant be true either..bwahahaahahahahahaahahah

  28. BRET WEINSTEIN ON JOE ROGAN: “This is clear fraud.”

    In one of the most explosive exchanges yet on the Joe Rogan Experience, evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein laid bare what he calls “the greatest medical scandal in modern history.”

    “Taking the mRNA COVID shots off the market should have been an easy decision. They should be embarrassed — horrified — by the harm they caused.”

    Then came the bombshell:

    “The product that was actually injected into billions of people involved DNA plasmids — and there is massive contamination in the shots, including the SV40 promoter — a known carcinogenic element.”

    https://x.com/JimFergusonUK/status/1987796011280957861

  30. BREAKING: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson just asked the UNITED NATIONS to intervene and stop ICE.

    https://x.com/BarronTNews_/status/1987963776826511419

    Obviously a sick Ray hiding from the snow should avoid Twitter. However, I dropped in to waste 15 minutes and got a big dose of “dookie.” I can’t believe it — I shut down the tube, turn off the radio, and avoid my news links for two weeks, and the entire world goes batshit crazy? This was only a very small sample.

    I’m afraid to surf a serious news site.

    WT(actual)F…?

  31. reminds me of a Q drop,,, ya, I seem to be the lone Qtard around this blog
    but,,,
    “4360
    May 30, 2020 6:11:47 PM EDT
    Q !!Hs1Jq13jV6 ID: 63d310 No. 9383164
    Insurrection Act of 1807.
    [Determination that the various state and local authorities are not up to the task of responding to the growing unrest]
    Call the ball.”
    https://qalerts.app/?q=%23%234360

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