A Federal Reserve “Disaster Timer?”

Is it too early to use existing hints in Big Data to tell us when might be an ideal time to have a crash? Not that a Crash larger than 1929 is something we look forward to, mind you. But aside from making all that prepping worthwhile, it also will give us a lot of planning time for our few (and regrettably small) trades to try and stay ahead of the Financial Grim Reaper. So this morning we come up with one way to look at when the world falls apart in a serious way; not that it couldn’t go sooner, but with a planning horizon, things are just a whole lot more comfortable…just like when in early 2008 we developed multiple views of what would happen later that year and into 2009.

Do You Believe These CPI Figures?

Let’s hop right in to the data just out from the Labor Department:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

In contrast to the broad-based increase last month, the June seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was primarily driven by the gasoline index. It rose 3.3 percent and accounted for two-thirds of the all items increase.

Other energy indexes were mixed, with the electricity index rising, but the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil declining. The food index decelerated in June, rising only slightly, with the food at home index flat after recent increases.

The index for all items less food and energy also decelerated in June, increasing 0.1 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in May. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care, and tobacco all increased in June, and the index for household furnishings and operations rose for the first time in a year.

However, the index for new vehicles declined after recent increases, and the index for used cars and trucks also fell.

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Coping: They’re Coming for Kansas Next

This morning, with every intention of writing a short column, as I’ve been promising myself, I sat down to a bowl of leftovers for breakfast and finally started to read through the latest issue of AOPA Pilot that’s been sitting on the counter gathering dust.  Too much work, too little time.

This issue was particularly interesting to me because it features seaplanes and years ago (like back in the 1970’s) I did the voiceover work for Kenmore Air’s seaplane flight training series.  This was back in the days of cassettes, mind you.

Seaplanes and I have some very fond memories:  The first one I flew was a J-3 Cub on floats, but after that I moved up to a Lake LA-4-200 amphibian.  When landing on water, the retractable gear stays safely tucked away.  But when landing at Boeing Field in Seattle, the gear dropped down and the plane landed on very short, but solid “legs.”

The only oddity of the Lake was that it featured a pusher prop mounted on a pylon over the cabin and above the wing.  Which required a bit of getting used to:  Normally when you’re on final approach for landing, if you pull the power back a bit, the nose will come down and often very little adjustment to trim is needed.

On the Lake, though, when you pull power, the nose comes UP…and depending on how big the power change is, that can be (how to we say this?)  an exciting experience. 

Getting back to our story: so there I was replaying seaplane adventures in my head and looking through the ads in the magazine and I noticed the word RISE has been adopted by the folks down in Kerrville, TX who make the finest/fastest gas prop-driven airplane in production at the moment, Mooney, and their latest does a screaming 242 knots.  Roughly 278 miles an hour.

My, how cool!  Mooney is on track and meeting the needs and of the aviation market, along with great American companies like Cessna, Beech, Piper, Carbon Crafters…you know the list.

Then disaster struck on page 31.

The ad said Rise, also, but as I looked down the ad (with an airplane on the left side, and a large group of what looked like outdoorsmen sitting around a campfire), my eye was drawn to the company name that produces the plane:  Mahindra Aerospace Group.

Mahindra? The folks that make the tractors (dark fire engine red) that are taking over large segments of the agricultural farm equipment market?  Yep, same folks.

And with reason, I might add:  Back in 2004 when I was making a decision on which tractor to buy, a four-wheel drive 25-30 HP class diesel was then pretty well down to a Mahindra (new to the market then) and a Kubota (the bright orange brand).

In the end, I opted for the Kubota because one of our Peoplenomics subscribers at the time worked for Kubota in Georgia, where the US tractors are made.  (Used to be all out of Japan.)

The Mahindra was a solid tractor, though:  Very dependable and though perhaps not as “refined” as the Kubota, within the first 200-hours (at my East Texas Tractor Abuse Festival) the Kubota was in for $1,200 worth of repairs to the clutch/ transmission, which should never have failed as it did.

To this day, I’ve been telling myself maybe I got a lemon, but it’s held up fairly well since.  Still…this Mahindra outfit tractors have earned (the hard way) a very good reputation hereabouts.

And this gets me to the point of this morning’s story if you work up in the square states and work for the airplane makers:  Read up on GippsAero in Wikipedia:

Gippsland Aeronautics was founded by Peter Furlong and George Morgan. The company started operations at the Latrobe Regional Airport in Morwell in the 1970s as an aircraft maintenance and modification business working for large organisations such as the National Safety Council of Australia and Esso Australia, as well as local commercial operators.

During the late 1960s and early 1970s, Peter Furlong and John Brown were pilots, builders, fabricators and maintenance personnel for, amongst others, the Latrobe Valley Aircraft Club and the Ultra Light Club of Australia. The company builds single-engined utility aircraft. These include the multi-role GA8 Airvan and the agricultural GA200 Fatman. The company is owned by Indian conglomerate Mahindra Group. In December,2009 Mahindra Aerospace Pvt. Ltd. (MAPL), belonging to Mahindra Group of India acquired a 75.1% majority stake and the company was renamed GippsAero.

And now…this month… the AirVan 8 is showing in America’s leading pilot/flying magazine.  We could argue that, since I’m also an Experimental Aircraft Association member and chapter VP, but my point is keep an eye on Mahindra.

The AirVan 8 is not particularly fast (just 8 MPH faster than our old Beechcraft wide open when the AirVan is in cruise).

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MH-17: Ferdinand’s Airplane?

Tensions between the US and Russia haven’t been this high since the Cold War and, with reports of crash scene tampering floating about from eastern Ukraine, the question of “Who shot it down” is echoing around the international community. 

Against this background, reader TJ wonders:

Hey George, do you think the plane could be a Ferdinand moment like the one that started WW1?

That’s a pretty interesting question. The Wikipedia entry on point offers this:

On Sunday, 28 June 1914, at approximately 10:45 am, Franz Ferdinand and his wife were killed in Sarajevo, the capital of the Austro-Hungarian province of Bosnia and Herzegovina, by Gavrilo Princip, 19 at the time, a member of Young Bosnia and one of a group of assassins organized by the Black Hand.[4] The event led to a chain of events that eventually triggered World War I.

Notice, however, that World War I did not start quite instantly.  We have a selection of candidate dates to calculate from:

On 28 July, the Austro-Hungarians fired the first shots in preparation for the invasion of Serbia

August 1, Germany declares war on Russia

August 3, German declares war on France

August 4, German declares war on  Belgium (a neutral country).

August 6, Austria-Hungary declares ward on Russia.

Austria invaded and fought the Serbian army at the Battle of Cer and Battle of Kolubara beginning on 12 August.

January 19, 1915 Zeppelins bombed Yarmouth and England enters Total War.

From these events, if this does, indeed, turn into something that’s an analog to the events that swirled in World War I from the outbreak of hostilities over summer, to the entry of England into the Total War in January 1915, we can do the following simple date math

It’s interesting to me to notice that the lag between the Austrian invasion date (Aug 12) and the entry of England due to Zeppelin bombings was 160-days, which approaches our Fine Structure Constant day.

With this in mind, we should have a very clear picture of historical import of the July 17th event this year by December 10.

The good news (I mean, such as it is) is that the economic long wave is not yet to its complete, utter bottom yet.  In fact, with the rise in employment figures and with global markets near peaks and not that far globally from the rollicking good times of 2007, collapse from here is unlikely.

It’s axiomatic that crashes happen from market bottoms, not tops. 

Thus, a much better candidate event would be events to unfold later this year in the Middle East in general, and specifically, in the area where ISIS/ISIL has set up shop.  The fall of additional territory that those forces seems likely, especially given reports this morning of more than 700 killed in Syria as ISIS continues to press from the east.

Of course, the death toll in the Gaza fighting is now around the 500 level, but there’s a much higher media profile to this part of the region.  The rioting in France, for example, tends to keep people in the West focused on the Gaza Strip and not what’s going on up north in Syria.

Meantime, the Middle East is still where global war should come from since so many people are invested psychologically in the religions of the region.  Headlines like this one (real or fake, makes no difference) prove the psychological warfare levels involved…and there are times it’s easy to confuse Iron Dome with divine intervention, perhaps.

Meandering back to point, for now, odds seem (to me) to remain high that the MH17 disaster will (in time, but maybe not in our lifetimes) be found to be high-level “signaling” between Washington and Moscow.  As our Winnipeg news analyst admits…

Dear Mr.

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Coping: Can Dreams Tell the Future (Sky Flashes/Chicago)

Back in about March, I “spun off” my work on the www.nationaldreamcenter.com site to a fine fellow (Chris McCleary) who (packing a couple of Master’s degrees) picked up the project and has moved it ahead and into exciting new territory – all in efforts to give us humans a bit more visibility on “the future” so we can be better prepared for it when it arrives.

I’m pleased to report this morning that Chris McCleary’s Project August is now out with a profile of what the coming month of August may look like.

Project August Report #5 is here. 

It’s long – at least one cup worth, and possibly two if you take it step-at-a-time and work out your own interpretations of what’s being said in the dreams themselves.  Those can be found in the site’s DreamBase over here…. a link to the 20 most recent dreams people contributing to the project have posted.

There are a couple of points that I would make on interpretation of my own (not official, by any means) but certainly something to think about.

Chris does a fine job of running down the “Otherlies” and there’s also a section about “Sly Flashes” which is taken as possibly indicating something like EMP taking place.

When I read that, something else went off in my head:  Is is possible (as last summer sky watching season comes along) that people on the ground may be able to see “sky flashes” of the Earthlings (our) space-defense system repelling (otherlies)?

And that gets me back to the problem common between investing and  future-forecasting:  The future continues to be a kind of (to borrow from Michael Crichton’s concept laid out in the novel Timeline) bubble-up event of dueling future-potentials which at the last minute coalesce into one alternative, or the other.

The future is ugly, that way:  Dreams tend to get it spectacularly right on occasion and when they do (as they have several times for me personally) they  are not to be ignored. An example of this was my “Serious, Personal, WoWW “ in March of this year.

The problem with really nailing the future is difficult because so many people who claim to work in the field get very proprietary about it.  What’s obvious is that “the future” belongs to all humans.

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Reader Note: Never-ending Site Improvements

You should now (after a hiatus) be able to send in hot news tips using the link on the menu above. I didn’t notice it wasn’t working for a while (sorry about that!) but it should be working again now and it now has its own email routing folder so anything that comes it will go to the right place. I appreciate people sharing their “finds” with us because there’s no way one person can keep up with all of it…but as a group effort, we hope to continue to cover a lot more ground than most. I’ve also been working on server-side enhancements and our typical home page load times are now typically less than 2 second with as fast as 0.

The Biggest Discovery of Our Lifetime?

What would qualify for the term “brain quake?”  That’s a term that could describe what could happen if science (quite by accident) tripped over a discovery that could justify a whole new brand of Life.   Up until now, we’ve been a world full of “converters.”  Not very efficient ones at that; we eat food, convert it to the proteins and sugars we need and blithely assume that’s how all Life works.

Except, it ain’t.

A huge discovery this week has started a real brain quake.  And, as I’ll explain, this one could ripple beyond anyone’s imagination.

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TEOTWAWKI? Next Week We’ll Know

From the top this morning, we all get to be in a holding pattern to see if War breaks out on Sunday.

Why is this important, after all, it’s only a date that has shown up on a couple of posts on various conspiracy and prophecy boards?

Because things seem to be falling into place.  Think about it:

A plug for our www.nostracoeeus.com project is in order here:  The data rolling out on the 16th prompted future-reader Grady to post that things would heat up in Ukraine shortly under the headline “Banks Rockets and London.  And then, it was “Another Prediction is proven to be true.” and to top things off, people just don’t seem to be interested (really) in thinking about the future that much.  But, this morning the data suggests that we will have 10-more days of serious Ukraine headlines – see “More to Come.”

And in Other News…

But this  last development this morning has us sitting back, taking a long pull on the third cuppa and wondering what all the media frenzy is about.  And I’ve come up with an interesting theory.

Ure’s Crackpot Theory 2014-28:

As the world runs out of real jobs to do, there will be a huge increase in the number of media and thus, number of column-inches of press, in order to continue growing the media sector since it can be flexibly grown.

And that sort of rolls us around to the next item.  But if you’re expecting the end of the world as we know it, keep your money in your pocket, it’s still a fool’s bet.  For now, anyway…

We do see how the Europeans are seriously pissed about the jet shootdown and escalation talk is in the wind among the Germans

Going into the weekend?  Flash goggles, a jacket, and an umbrella, oughta be fashionable.

More after this…

What is Microsoft Thinking?

Young people, particularly in ‘Mercia, are not complete idiots.  Close, sometimes, sure, but not total ef-tards.

Hence, when a company acts in strangely anti-job ways, people in ‘Mercia take notice.when Microsoft announces 18-thousand jobs are about to get whacked.  It comes a week after the company pressed for more imported as reported by Information Week a while back under the headline “Microsoft says 6,000 jobs open, wants more Visas…”

(Think about time lags here:  Request in 2012, hiring 2013 and training and now, today…)

Confused?  I’ve got a nickel side bet that says it’s cheaper to bring in H1-b’s than  to retrain American workers. Besides, that way, even more people can get roped into hopeless student loan debt.

Didn’t you learn anything from reading how the world works?

The Real Economic Schiznit

It’s easy to laugh at the economic numbers (and decisions, policies, and so forth) coming out of Washington.  So around here, we tend to look at what real U.S.

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Coping: With Food Patterns

One of our readers (RD) mentioned in a recent email that Tuesday was “hamburger day” for him.

This reminded me of something I’ve been meaning to mention for a couple of years, but it just keeps slipping my mind:  Is it an indication of something [fill in this blank if you can come up with a word for it —>_____] when people get into ritual and routine about their food?

When we were living in Burbank back in the 2005 era I knew people who would always to a certain restaurant on a certain day.  Like Acapulco’s on Thursday for lunch…that sort of thing.

More recently, a consulting client and his wife (east coast folks) made a major change in their life, moving Tuesday Chinese to Wednesday.

I’ve never really understood it, because part of the joy of “listening to your body, thus reducing stress” includes sitting back for a moment and asking “What do I FEEL would be good for me today?”

Going to the Northwest (as we’re about to for a month) I can see how people slip into foody-patterns.  In fact, if for the rest of my life, I had only one meal to it, I’d have to go with the dinner-sized crab cocktail, a small salad with bleu cheese, and the dinner-sized fish and chips from Harbor Lights in Tacoma.

There (and Ivar’s) are about the only places the fish and chips are perfect to my taste.  Most places do a heavier (and therefore greasier) batter.  I don’t care for that…more of a Panko-style fish eater, thanks.  If I want that much breading, I’ll mix up a few baguettes of French…know what I mean? 

Anyway, the only other reasons for eating a certain thing – on a certain day – that I can come up with is maybe the “Wednesday special.” 

Over the years, some great restaurants have day of the week specials.  My other favorite haunt in the PNW is 13-Coins where (if you scroll down their 24-hour menu here) you’ll see why I love going there on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.  (Stroganoff, pot roast, and prime rib specials if you’re a bit slow on the click this morning.)

Around out place, we eat (more of less) when hungry and what depends on activities around the house.  During construction projects (a seemingly perpetual state) there are a lot of microwaved Reuben sandwiches and pizzas,

It’s really amazing how a regular frozen “base” pizza can be fixed up with a jug of good organic red sauce, some fresh sliced mushrooms and a pound of additional ‘mutz. 

Other days, like today, we still turn on the crock pot and do something like an all-day pot roast…but mostly, the “right answer” seems to be skipping routine and if a couple of tall glasses or orange juice, or a whole celery are what your body wants, then by all means, I figure going for it is one way to keep healthy:  Just like animals graze differently, depending on their health, what’s in season, and what their mood and feelings are, seems like that makes sense for us, too.

Except on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, or while in Tacoma along the waterfront, of course.

Music in Retirement

A few days back we were talking about the other kind of “listening to yourself” that seems pretty good:  Making your own music, particularly, if like me, you didn’t practice as a kid.

At least when retirement shows up, you should be able to set aside plenty of practice time (since the kids only call on state occasions like birthdays, and when their bank accounts are low).

Reader Dave (one of the 642 Daves that read this site) is in the process of rediscovering music, too, so lots of us on this path…

I haven’t done much music, but I have done alot of art and I listen to music alot.

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A Rare Midday Update: Putin Message in a Missile Miss?

As we have been reporting for months, the EU has its eyes on subjugating Russia and forming a super union which (as one EU official put it) would stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

At the time, I told you this was dangerous talk and that the Russian people still had borders and no intentions of joining the EU particularly in the wake of the German siege in World War II.

But now fast forward to today’s tragedy over Ukraine where a(north) Malaysian airline has been involved in disaster – thing time a purported missile shootdown that claimed all 295 souls aboard the jet.

But here’s the rub:  The rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine/disputed territories, don’t have that kind of hardware.

And what’s more, Russia Today/RT reports that “President Putin’s plane might have been the target for Ukrainian missile – sources…”

If you’re a non-partisan analyst, with an eye to detail and a keen sense of inquiry, the Russian denial of Kiev’s move on Black Sea ports would be reason enough to attempt to kill Putin, but then toss on the flames of that fire, no more “freebies” on natural gas.

Now toss in Russia’s backing for a reopening of a Cold War era spy facility (regardless of how insignificant compared to the American mass recording/Studio Provo operations).

Then for a capper, toss in Putin’s efforts to end US Dollar hegemony via the BRICs summit and you have all the makings for an….er….accident.

It reads like a poor novel of political intrigue played out by fools.  Unable to aim, alright, and now it’s not an unreasonable stretch to call it a “Message in a missile.”

We shouldn’t have to wait more than a month, or two, for Putin to retaliate with a “message back” if indeed it was a missing message, so to speak.

Still, it may be an “accident” (or it may be sold after the fact as such.  It wouldn’t be the first time that Ukraine has knocked down an airliner, if it plays out that way.  Check the Wikipedia entry for Sibera Airliones Flight 1812:

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 crashed over the Black Sea on 4 October 2001, en route from Tel Aviv, Israel to Novosibirsk, Russia. The plane, a Soviet-made Tupolev Tu-154, carried an estimated 66 passengers and 12 crew members. Most of the passengers were Israelis visiting relatives in Russia.

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“If You Always Do…

….what you’ve always done, you’ll always get, what you always got.” 

The sage advice from an old friend applies (many times over) in politics.  While a Gallup poll out this morning shows that immigration has eclipsed the economy in most people’s minds, the results of recent elections continue to sting:

Overwhelmingly, the same idiots who got us into this mess have been winning their primaries…so the public expects those “who broke it” to now “fix it.”

If that isn’t the clearest example of national stupidity ever, I’ll eat my hat.  (I had a special chocolate one made, so it won’t be too bad if it comes down to it…)

It also begins to show the Northeast Liberals for what they really are, too:  Do as we say, not as we….

Maryland governor says don’t dump illegals here.

So too, Connecticut wants no part of housing illegal kids en masse.

What?  Two standards?  One for the border states and one for the land of liberals?

I know my N.E. liberal friends will be calling any minute – it will go to voicemail today.  But the point is that tearing down America’s border (let’s call it what it is….) is treasonous.  Both money-corrupted parties are elbow-deep in the scam including George Bush who pushed for Amnesty, something the right doesn’t like to bring us.  It’s a business model to have a “zone” and not border

Anyone who’s in favor of that is a scammer, in my book.  Border or merger with Mexico…there’s no “soft in-between.”  I’m prepared to leave Texas if the border continues to fall.  I’m willing to vote with my wallet.

And if American’s aren’t bright enough to figure that out, then we would like to thank Common Core and its precedents that eroded once solid values-and-skills-based curriculum and stuffed the minds of America’s young with situational excusifications, all backed up by case law made up from the bench liberalista-stuffed Courts and promoted by the political correctness corps.

So enjoy your police state, your surveillance, and what the ACLU calls the Constitution-Free Zone –  and remembers those fine words of Pogo:  “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

I wish I could say “George is losing it.”  But no, you are:  The country.  You know, those things on maps indicated by borders?

Gaza Reloaded

So in the rest of what passes for news, we see how there’s what passes for a cease-fire in Gaza.  But based on historical data, the smartest bet in the house this morning is that this will just time time for resupply and reloading until the death festival comes back for an encore.

Hmmmm….another one of those hard questions to answer:  Where is that line between optimist and idiot, again?

Selling Terrorism

Say, this is choice:  The CBS affil in NYC headlines “Police: Al Qaeda magazine suggesting attack on US Open.”

I know, how is it with anti-terrorism budgets what they are, that AQ can publish a magazine that the NY PD  gets?

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Coping: Here’s What Will Save America

As we were sitting here, splitting a bag of O’berto Teriyaki Beef Jerky for breakfast, Zeus the Cat was remarking on how what has saved America’s bacon in the past has been our sense of inventiveness.

Ure kind of a sourpuss and too cynical, most times,” he told me.  “You didn’t mention the article on HackaDay about the Midwest Maker Faire up in Kansas City.  If you want to see where the future is going, and be able to invest in “the right stuff” you need to get out to precisely this kind of event.  More jerky?”

I didn’t find too many right off the bat, but a list of some of the major international technology fairs over here looked interesting, particularly the Smart Materials and Surfaces conference in Thailand.

“Wrong search terms, Fatso.  Try “inventor conventions” to improve your search results.”

And insulting cat who hogs the beef jerky….what could be worse?  I mean other than him being right all the time…

“Say, the Cat, there’s only one good one left on this list (close enough we could make it) – and it’s up in Chicago in November.”

“Try this one.”

“I don’t see anything good there….”

I’d be a lot more up to speed if you’d give me back the big-screen you took away claiming I was watching kitty porn on it…”

“It wasn’t just the kitty porn, if the 976 numbers and not sharing your catnip,” I reminded him.

Trivialities, biped.  You and I have both missed Everyday Edisons and a whole lot more.”

Hmmm…

Truth of the matter is that the Cat may be onto something.  Inventing is one of the coolest pursuits out there…and just having my name on three or four patents is a high-mark in life.

I didn’t pursue the conversation.  Original thinking is our stock-in-trade around here.  Besides, I already have an IP attorney, and I don’t want Zeus the Cat’s animal rights attorney crossing him.

But I thought I’d mention it: Who will be the next Ron Popeil  (perhaps the second best American inventor/marketer after Edison) and where do I buy shares in it?   Ever read the list of his (or should we count them as Ronco) products?

  • Chop-O-Matic: a hand food processor. “Ladies and gentlemen, I’m going to show you the greatest kitchen appliance ever made … All your onions chopped to perfection without shedding a single tear.”
  • Dial-O-Matic: successor to the Veg-O-Matic (and very similar to a mandolin slicer). “Slice a tomato so thin it only has one side.” “When chopping onions with this machine, the only tears you will shed will be tears of joy.”
  • Popeil Pocket Fisherman: a small fishing pole. “The biggest fishing invention since the hook … and still only $19.95!” (According to the program Biography, the original product was the invention of Popeil’s father and only marketed by Ronco, but as of 2006, Popeil had introduced a redesigned version of the product.)[6]
  • Mr. Microphone: a short-range hand-held radio transmitter that would broadcast over an FM radio. The nearby radio(s) would therefore amplify the sound coming from the Mr. Microphone.

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The Future for Millenials

A look into the next 10-years for Millenials this morning, along with a visit to my electronics bench were we will turn a sine wave pattern on an oscilloscope into a useful economic teaching too. But first, we need to go over a few things including the PPI numbers just out this morning and the other floating bits of madness. With coffee, of course… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW! ||| Subscriber Help Center