Home Prices Chill

Hot off the press release:

NEW YORK, September 27, 2016 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in July, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.2% annual increase, down from 4.3% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.0%, down from 5.1% in June. 

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last six months. In July, Portland led the way with a 12.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 11.2%, and Denver with a 9.4% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2016 versus the year ending June 2016.  

The press release continues:

MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in July. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.6% increase in July. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-overmonth increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease, and the 20-City Composite remains unchanged. After seasonal adjustment, 12 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

Remember, this is with the Fed jamming M1 up at a 10% annualized rate…and this is all we get?

My analysis is simple:  We will be in recession in Q1 2017, simple as that.  The election optimism will be gone and the reality will be settling in…

Market futures have dropped a few points, too, so I’m not the lone forecaster.  Remember, a week from now we will be entering out Crash Windows.

Thought we forgot about them? 

How the Debate Was “Rigged”

The first 30-seconds of the so-called “debate” last night told me all I needed to know:

1. The “moderator” and Trump referred to Hillary as “Secretary Clinton.” She is no longer “secretary” – John Kerry is. As I further explained in detail in Monday’s column, when there is only one of something (like Secretary of State) ONLY the current office-holder is referred to as “Secretary.” When they leave office, they revert to Mr. or Mrs. In conversation but they can be addressed as “honorable” in correspondence. But no, she ISN’T SECRETARY. JOHN KERRY IS.

2.The audio chain on Trump was different than Clinton. By my ear, at least 10 but more likely 20 db more compression. This is why Trump sounded at times like …well, let’s not go THERE. Instead see Why was Trump sniffling so much? Audio processing. Also, his equalization was set to boost a bit more highs than her Hillness. Bad form, but only people who’ve run (and in my case taught) audio engineering would have likely caught the difference. Excess compression in the audio chain is why Trump’s every small breathing sound was amplified and Clinton’s was not. Near as I could tell, no noise gating on Trump, either. Clinton audio was much better.

3.No email discussion.

4.No Benghazi discussion.

5.No lapses of memory discussion.

6.Horrible “moderator” who, as is pointed out in the article over here played the role of “Third Debater.” I’m not the only one saying it. See: DEBATE DEBACLE? Holt faces criticism over his moderation efforts.

7.And purely coincidental, we are sure: “Popular Radio Host Michael Savage Broadcast Shut Down Nationwide as He Discusses Clinton’s Health…”

Hey! You’re not seeing a pattern here, are you?

Amazingly, and despite the glaring errors apparent to us, Trump was judged to have held his own.

Sadly, I’d have to score it a Clinton win: She owned the name-game, she skated on email and the pay-to-see-her foundation, and she remained vertical and had better audio.

Toss in the feds working “election security” and it’s as good as a Hillary shoo-in already.

Oh, one other thing:

Remember all the charlatans who were telling us Hillary would be out before the debate, then by the end of September and so forth?

Don’t hold your breath on those hystrionics either. Look at the data and look at the media buys and budgets.

Hillary – as we called it 18-months ago – is still the apparent high bidder and the only thing that matters now is who counts the votes.

There, Clinton is likely to (paraphrasing Sgt. Pepper’s here) get by with a little help from her friends. I don’t want to break it to you, but stories like UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in Electoral College don’t matter.

MH-17 Replay

Russia: If MH17 was shot down, Ukraine did it.

Speaking of Planes

Did you see where the Iowa State president says he will stop using school plane?

Ours is for sale…see Trade-a-Plane under Beech A23-19. Make you a hell of a deal. Not an SR-22 GTS, but less than 10% of the price, too…

Ure’s Global Recession 2017 Forecast

Remember it? Said it would be here next year.

Now, looks like even the cheerleaders are figuring there something suspect in the punch bowl: WTO cuts 2016 world trade growth forecast on China slowdown, falling US imports.

You KNOW when the WTO warns of “trade slide” it will be bad.

Europe’s Civil War

Is another forecast that is slowly ramping up. Most recently 2 bomb attacks in Germany. Of course when a mosque is damaged, there will be payback…and so goes escalation.

All because Angela Merkel and as pack of German liberals missed the part about the Battle of Tours in history class.

War: Always in Style

Think this will hold? Colombia, Marxist rebels sign accord ending 52-year war.  Seems to me Marxists don’t give up so easily.  Take for example how long it has taken them to occupy America.

Comments

Home Prices Chill — 14 Comments

  1. “7.And purely coincidental, we are sure: “Popular Radio Host Michael Savage Broadcast Shut Down Nationwide as He Discusses Clinton’s Health…”

    Isn’t that Amazing.. the same thing happened with your friend Cliff High while he was giving an interview.. (www.halfpasthuman.com ) everytime he would get into a subject that was controversal.. the net would shut down..and glitches so you would loose track.. LOL

  2. Both candidates are repulsive in their own multiple ways. However, if I had been unfamiliar with them and seen them for the first time at last night’s “debate”, I would have thought Trump was a rude, spastic, yelling lout with impulse control problems and a tendency toward incoherence, and while Clinton was reciting campaign speeches in an uninspiring way, she could at least control herself and speak in complete sentences. Trump seemed quickly physically winded. Clinton, for whatever reasons, remained composed – and had the oomph left to give a speech immediately afterwards. If that awkward phrase “optics” counts for anything, Clinton certainly had the edge last night. And Trump & entourage caught by a remote camera in the “spin zone” bickering among themselves in a very heated manner did not help him.

  3. George,

    You recommended some time back that I buy Boafeng 2 way radios. I did, I needed them yesterday. I open the box for the first time. Awesome radios and range for farming.

    Thank you sir Also an avid Peoplenomics subscriber

  4. What does this mean? “Market futures have dropped a few points, too, so I’m not the lone forecaster. Remember, a week from now we will be entering out Crash Windows.”

    Entering what?

  5. Hi
    I watched the debate and before reading the polls or listening to the commentary I thought Hillary Clinton won “on points” . It was a lot like a featherweight boxing match where there was no clear knock out.

    Next stop round two. Remember how McCain beat Obama in the first debate? IMHO Hillary brought her A game and won it. If Trump practices a bit maybe he will get the edge next time.

    But I fear you are right. Hillary Clinton has the Wall Street PAC cash floating her campaign: which means victory is assured.

    • Oh Hillary being the next administrator was figured out a long time ago there really isn’t any need for debates etc…
      Did you ever notice that shows and posts on television that post positive towards her campaign and presidency are all being funded by companies and corporations and foundations etc.. that belong to the one percent.. needless to say I am assuming that seeing that the news will be slanted that way as well.. in the end its all about the Benjamin’s.Like George always says it is a business model.
      If swaying the public opinion doesn’t work.. they have the ability to just change it..
      Not to mention stories like this one on hedge..

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-07/these-are-not-normal-times-if-trump-wins-will-obama-declare-martial-law-remain-office

  6. I don’t know why the Republicans continue to agree to the stacked deck of the debates. The moderators, the venue, the audience, the sound etc. You can’t beat the team and the ref.

    • WE noticed! She had to know the questions in advance. The moderator was wearing an ear bud, he was getting help through that device. He doubled down on Trump and let her slide did not even bring up the most important items related to her history that the American people were concerned about. The moderator’s questions of Trump were all hit items.

      Can you imagine the following questions asked of Clinton: Question 1: I understand that you referred to Blacks as SUPER predators, what do you think of your husband’s policy to incarcerate Blacks so as to fill the privatized prisons which allows corporations to profit off of the backs of this new slave labor paying them $00.13 on the dollar. If you become President, will you reverse this 3 strikes you are out policy? Question 2: It has been revealed this week that your Clinton Foundation only gives 5.3% of its money to charities. Why is this? Do you anticipate a way to increase this amount or are you satisfied that 5.3% is enough for charity? How much of that 5.3% is donated in THIS country? Question 3: The movie, “Clinton Cash”, outlines decades of Pay for Play with you and your husband. Basically, a company/person/lobbyist wants a favor from you, and they pay your husband to give a speech. It is then documented that you will REVERSE a previous position, or change your mind, or help forward a bill/idea/committee decision in order for that company/person/lobbyist to enrich themselves with your support to the tune of millions, what do you have to say about this nefarious relationship between you selling favors in order for the money to end up in the Clinton Foundation? Question 4: Following up on the previous question, did you not say that you left the Whitehouse broke, and now you all have at least 220 million in the Clinton Foundation. We ‘hear’ reports that a Billion dollars has passed through your foundation, is this not disconcerting to you and your husband? Question 5: We understand you made over $650,000 in speaking fees to Goldman Sach’s; people have asked for you to RELEASE the transcripts of your speeches, when will you release the transcripts of your speeches?

      It is so obvious who the 1% support and it is NOT America!

  7. One thing though – it is really ‘bad form’ for Donald Trump to whine immediately about how bad his microphone was. Couldn’t he be quiet about what he thought was unfair for at least until he waited to issue a ‘press statement’ from his campaign? Not very mature of him – even I know that! He should have considered his options. Blurting out whatever is on your mind is not good!

  8. The man’s own words:

    “You look at North Korea, we’re doing nothing there,” Trump said when asked about his policy on nuclear weapons during the debate. “China should solve that problem for us. China should go into North Korea. China is totally powerful as it relates to North Korea.”

    Trump did an amazing thing: He didn’t protest when Hillary Clinton theorized that he paid no federal income tax. In fact, he seemed to agree with her. “That makes me smart,” he interjected.

    Donald Trump owning up to a Hillary Clinton charge that he rooted for the housing crisis.
    “That’s called business,” Trump replied, bluntly.

    Trump also was unapologetic during the debate about the bankruptcy filings of several of his companies. “On occasion, four times, we used certain laws that are there.” “But I take advantage of the laws of the nation because I’m running a company. My obligation right now is to do well for myself, my family, my employees, for my companies. And that’s what I do.”

    Trump on cybersecurity: “As far as the cyber, I agree to parts of what Secretary Clinton said. We should be better than anybody else, and perhaps we’re not. I don’t think anybody knows it was Russia that broke into the DNC. She’s saying Russia, Russia, Russia, but I don’t — maybe it was. I mean, it could be Russia, but it could also be China. It could also be lots of other people. It also could be somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds, OK?”

    • Are you pointing how well he did with your comment or are you attacking him? You just pointed out several bluntly honest answers that Trump made. Do you try to pay more income taxes?
      This just proves that Hillary raising taxes on the rich is BS because loopholes are available and LEGAL. I am sure Trump pays someone very smart to do his taxes. Hillary offers nothing to keep the rich from off shoring their companies and money and nothing to bring them back to the US.
      Do you think US should attack a nuclear armed NK or use leverage with China to diffuse the situation?
      Trump has lots and lots of different companies and some have filed BK. So have lots of other companies when it was in there best interest; Six Flags, Marvel, Texaco, Sbarro, Chicago Cubs, American Airlines, GM, and too many to others mention…What is your point?
      Hackers are everywhere and no ones knows who hacked Clinton, this entire subject is only designed to deflect from the criminal acts that Clinton perpetrated through her communications.

      • And, don’t forget, RUSSIA, RUSSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA DID IT, Putin likes Trump, Trump likes Putin, did I mention RUSSIA, Russia, russia, rus-s-s-ia….on and on and on and on and on…There is NO proof Russia did anything! Putin has DENIED doing anything! But, she is planting her seeds….be ready…RUSSIA IS GOING TO BE BLAMED! But….she did not BLAME russia for killing that DNC guy, shot in the back 2 times at 4:00 a.m. in D.C., he was not assaulted, nor was he robbed, no one stole his watch, ring, wallet or cell phone, it was a hit. Assange said that that DNC staffer was the leaker of the DNC emails!!!! So NO Russia did not do that hack!!!

        Why didn’t the moderator ask her about the DNC staffer that was killed or the state of the investigation, or the fact that the DNC backed her and rigged the primaries? GOSH/DURN those media types just can’t seem to ask a decent question!