Home Prices Chill

Hot off the press release:

NEW YORK, September 27, 2016 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in July, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.2% annual increase, down from 4.3% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.0%, down from 5.1% in June. 

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last six months. In July, Portland led the way with a 12.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 11.2%, and Denver with a 9.4% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2016 versus the year ending June 2016.  

The press release continues:

MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in July. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.6% increase in July. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-overmonth increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease, and the 20-City Composite remains unchanged. After seasonal adjustment, 12 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

Remember, this is with the Fed jamming M1 up at a 10% annualized rate…and this is all we get?

septhousing

My analysis is simple:  We will be in recession in Q1 2017, simple as that.  The election optimism will be gone and the reality will be settling in…

Market futures have dropped a few points, too, so I’m not the lone forecaster.  Remember, a week from now we will be entering out Crash Windows.

Thought we forgot about them? 

How the Debate Was “Rigged”

The first 30-seconds of the so-called “debate” last night told me all I needed to know:

1. The “moderator” and Trump referred to Hillary as “Secretary Clinton.” She is no longer “secretary” – John Kerry is. As I further explained in detail in Monday’s column, when there is only one of something (like Secretary of State) ONLY the current office-holder is referred to as “Secretary.” When they leave office, they revert to Mr. or Mrs. In conversation but they can be addressed as “honorable” in correspondence. But no, she ISN’T SECRETARY. JOHN KERRY IS.

2.The audio chain on Trump was different than Clinton. By my ear, at least 10 but more likely 20 db more compression. This is why Trump sounded at times like …well, let’s not go THERE. Instead see Why was Trump sniffling so much? Audio processing. Also, his equalization was set to boost a bit more highs than her Hillness. Bad form, but only people who’ve run (and in my case taught) audio engineering would have likely caught the difference. Excess compression in the audio chain is why Trump’s every small breathing sound was amplified and Clinton’s was not. Near as I could tell, no noise gating on Trump, either. Clinton audio was much better.

3.No email discussion.

4.No Benghazi discussion.

5.No lapses of memory discussion.

6.Horrible “moderator” who, as is pointed out in the article over here played the role of “Third Debater.” I’m not the only one saying it. See: DEBATE DEBACLE? Holt faces criticism over his moderation efforts.

7.And purely coincidental, we are sure: “Popular Radio Host Michael Savage Broadcast Shut Down Nationwide as He Discusses Clinton’s Health…”

Hey! You’re not seeing a pattern here, are you?

Amazingly, and despite the glaring errors apparent to us, Trump was judged to have held his own.

Sadly, I’d have to score it a Clinton win: She owned the name-game, she skated on email and the pay-to-see-her foundation, and she remained vertical and had better audio.

Toss in the feds working “election security” and it’s as good as a Hillary shoo-in already.

Oh, one other thing:

Remember all the charlatans who were telling us Hillary would be out before the debate, then by the end of September and so forth?

Don’t hold your breath on those hystrionics either. Look at the data and look at the media buys and budgets.

Hillary – as we called it 18-months ago – is still the apparent high bidder and the only thing that matters now is who counts the votes.

There, Clinton is likely to (paraphrasing Sgt. Pepper’s here) get by with a little help from her friends. I don’t want to break it to you, but stories like UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in Electoral College don’t matter.

MH-17 Replay

Russia: If MH17 was shot down, Ukraine did it.

Speaking of Planes

Did you see where the Iowa State president says he will stop using school plane?

Ours is for sale…see Trade-a-Plane under Beech A23-19. Make you a hell of a deal. Not an SR-22 GTS, but less than 10% of the price, too…

Ure’s Global Recession 2017 Forecast

Remember it? Said it would be here next year.

Now, looks like even the cheerleaders are figuring there something suspect in the punch bowl: WTO cuts 2016 world trade growth forecast on China slowdown, falling US imports.

You KNOW when the WTO warns of “trade slide” it will be bad.

Europe’s Civil War

Is another forecast that is slowly ramping up. Most recently 2 bomb attacks in Germany. Of course when a mosque is damaged, there will be payback…and so goes escalation.

All because Angela Merkel and as pack of German liberals missed the part about the Battle of Tours in history class.

War: Always in Style

Think this will hold? Colombia, Marxist rebels sign accord ending 52-year war.  Seems to me Marxists don’t give up so easily.  Take for example how long it has taken them to occupy America.

Comments

Home Prices Chill — 21 Comments

  1. I was listening to Limbaugh today, he said Trumps audio sounded like it was compressed. He’s been in radio for a couple of years or so….he might know what he’s talking about on this subject.

  2. George, I know another guy that does Eliot Wave charting. He thinks 2161 + a few points is a short term high, then down to no lower than 2142, then up well above 2180. How is it that EW theories can be interpreted so differently? Is it that subjective to the person doing the calculation’s bias’s?

    • Prechter, in the Elliot Wave Financial Forecast (Sept 2 ’16) says the DJIA is one of three choices:

      Intermediate wave (5) started at the 15,503 low on Feb 11,’16. That’s within Primary wave 5.

      Intermediate wave (5) could be an ending diagonal, or a regular impulse.

      Expect another upward push, unless Intermediate wave (5) at 15450 started on Jan 20 ’16.

      • Except fifth waves fail all the time…but not EVERY time don’t you hate when people read books?

  3. Perhaps the Donald is just a ‘decoy duck?’ They’re both elitists and in the end both will get a laugh about the concern of their sheeple. Too many subversive elements to placate to take this election seriously.

  4. The other thing – why mention – if you are a candidate . . . the problem with the sound immediately after the debate while you are ‘pressing the flesh’ – it doesn’t take a genius to figure that one should ‘hold your opinion on the matter until your press person can issue a statement with the proper ‘spin’ on it. To speak ‘off the cuff’ shows a lack of maturity as a politician, even if you don’t want to be seen as such.

  5. I noticed the audio, as Hillary was speaking, to be ever so slightly out of synch with the video. I did not notice the Trump audio problems mentioned, but enough other people have that I may rewatch the debate.

    I wonder if some processing was done on both candidates’ speech, resulting in delayed audio for one, and mangled audio for the other?

    • Noticed the same, very strange. Also, that the moderator had an ear bud, WHO/WHAT was pumping him with additional questions/comments to interject and interrupt Trump.

      • Of course he had an audio! If you happened to watch the ‘prep’ before the debate Holt was on occasion talking to the ‘people in the back’ letting him know when the two ‘guests’ were ready to come out, etc – to coordinate so that he would know when to announce to the crowd when they would come out for the debate.

        This type of presentation has to be directed with a control room and staff.

    • BS MDS, you don’t need an ear bud to know when a candidate is going to come out! Gosh liberals think everyone is DUMB!

  6. If Trump comes out of this and moves to a 5 point or better lead I would cancel the other 2 debates. The front runner only has something to lose should he further engage. He’s better on the stump in front of crowds and he would be better served to do that and claim she can’t win……

  7. Come on George…you are smarter than that. Blaming it on the moderator, or sound checks is so lame. Trump had the opportunity to wax on emails, Benghazi…etc…but did not. He is not smart enough. No the Clown Prince would rather ramble on about his taxes, Rosie O’Donell and how his 10 year old kid likes computers…didn’t quite know where he going with that…This debate shows how really pathetic Trumps knowledge and lack of preparation makes him the most unqualified Presidential candidate in the history of our country. The world is embarrassed for us. Trump has tuned America into a world wide late night comedy routine.

  8. And btw, were Don-0 the Clowns facial expressions and nonsensical answers also rigged? We are in the BEEG pile of sheet either way in this election, but let’s not pretend that he has a functional brain.

  9. Yes,George-you are the ONLY one to notice the weird audio in the debates night. I heard the user difference on Trump’s mike immediately, but assumed that both participants had tested their individual sound devices(a rather critical aspect in public speaking) and that a glitch would have been noticed before the debates began? An alert Trump(mutually exclusive term?) tech could have handled this problem even AFTER the debate began-l am sure that a sound glitch that obvious could have been addressed within a minute or three….turn down the Mike; move it;replace it ??? why wasn’t audio tested prior to the debate?? (“Mike, Mike..?) Been there, done that…

    • Actually, I thought that it was the moderator who was the sell out as it was obvious he was on team clinton. Of course, Hillary sold out the country long ago, but there are still pickings to be had and she still wants to be on the front line.

  10. The UK Daily Mail did a summary this morning of some ‘snap’ polls – results below; notable ‘liberal’ media ‘surprisingly’ admitting a Trump polling ‘win’ include . . .
    – CNBC (51-49)
    – Time (58-42)
    – CBS/NY (57-43)
    – Slate (54-46)
    – Variety (51.5-48.5)
    – Fortune (51-49)

    For the Donald to be within even a few points, let alone ‘even’ with Hillary on these progressive polls would be a definite win. To show him ahead has to be totally maddening to ‘The Scarlet Harlot’ (RE: Her debate attire); Oh, and social media was decidedly in Trump’s favor, which is how ‘The Donald’ dispensed of the GOP crowd during the primaries. The man definitely knows how to spin and market!!!

    • Yes, and she sat up there and pandered to us like we are ignoramuses as she lied her way through the debate. She insults intelligent citizens as she dismisses her emails as a “mistake.” To think, that a grown, mature, woman who signed a TOP SECRET CLEARANCE training acknowledgment then single handedly in her right mind, went home and ordered a private email address for herself and her associates on her PRIVATE SERVER and then counted on OTHER (hundreds) of people to CENSOR themselves and not send HER classified material on her unclassified email system which she NEVER notified them that it was unclassified. I would like to know WHY that is NOT considered intent. Where her petty little IT guy IGNORED a Benghazi Committee Request of her emails and then the next day was on a private geek website asking how to take of a VIP’s header information, and was actually told it was FRAUD to do it. He still persisted, and then WIPED her emails off the face of the earth! And that sucker pleaded the 5th. Her lawyer ALSO took the 5th, WHO was one of the lawyers she had review her emails which had CLASSIFIED information in them. Her lawyer did NOT have Top Secret Clearance to review classified emails. Hillary is such a CRIMINAL, disgusting and unrepentant! SO NO, I CANNOT VOTE FOR THE INTENTIONAL, MULTI-DECADE PAY FOR PLAY CRIMINAL MILLIONAIRE, PROBABLE BILLIONAIRE, WHO HAS VOTED FOR AND PUT OUR COUNTRY IN 4 WARS ALREADY (AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, LIBYA, AND SYRIA; YES, WE ARE AT WAR IN SYRIA) AND NEVER WORKED AN HONEST DAY IN HER LIFE! What else I learned by watching this debate is, that our country is F’D UP BECAUSE OF OUR GOVERNMENT AND THE GLOBALIST HIRED LEADERS!!! WE THE PEOPLE ARE NOT THE PROBLEM, SHE IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS, BUT LET’S COUNT EM: CLINTON, BUSH, OBAMA, AND NOW SHE WANTS TO PUT THE KNIFE IN THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. DO NOT LET HER!

    • http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-donald-trump-debate-polls-2016-9

      Trump did, in fact, come out ahead in a slew of online polls on various websites. But those polls were all unscientific, meaning the sample of participants did not accurately reflect the sample of viewers who watched the debate. The Drudge Report, a popular conservative news source, also linked to each online poll, heavily skewing the results. Such polls are almost always discounted by professional pollsters and analysts.

      The only scientific survey conducted in the immediate aftermath was the CNN/ORC instant poll, which showed viewers thought Hillary Clinton handily defeated Trump.

      Yet not only were those polls contrary to the only scientific survey conducted, but focus groups also overwhelmingly selected Clinton as the debate winner.

      Republican pollster Frank Luntz reported that 16 people in his focus group thought Clinton came out as the winner; only six people thought the winner was Trump. A CNN focus group of undecided Florida voters arrived at the same conclusion; 18 of the 20 participants chose Clinton as the winner.