The British market was about flat when we looked earlier.  But the French and German markets were screaming ahead – up well over one percent.  

These print-crazed Globalists could tech Zimbabwe a thing or two, right?

It may be Memorial Day here, but in other parts of the financial universe, it’as business and usual. Pump and dump.   Here lately, that’s been mostly coordinated global inflation to stave-off Global Depression.

IN Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was about flat, but Japan was up 1-3/4 percent.  Those who have been betting on a “downer” after Memorial Day could have their behinds handed to ’em tomorrow if the weekend continues being well-mannered.

Quest for Manic Panic

There’s too much “News Capacity” in the world…and slow weekends like this are one of faltering media’s greatest problems.  Second only to falling online ad revenues because people who’ve been locked-down don’t spend as much, and given Amazon-access, when they do, it’s usually to buy something already well-defined.

How, pray tell then,  to anxious editors qand salacious writers, fill “The Reality Gap” on days like this?  Minutia, heart strings, hate, and outright fear-mongering fill the bill.  Here’s a sampling:

“BLOOD ON BOARDWALK Violence erupts as crowds swarm to reopened beaches for Memorial Day weekend with six shot at Daytona Beach.” Sounds like a very quiet weekend in Chicago, to us.  No, wait.  Let’s blame CV-19.

Then we find president Tweet busily dividing his party over the death of a 28-year old woman in TV host Joe Scarborough’s Florida congressional office in January…of 2001!  Because Trump tweeted about this two weeks back and now, what with a news-void weekend….  We’re digging up shit from 19-years ago? GMAFB!

Then there are stories like second-guessing decisions like releasing inmates from prison during the CV19 outbreak.  That we see headlines like “Some inmates released due to COVID-19 went on to allegedly commit crimes including murder – House Judiciary Committee Democrats are calling for the release of more prisoners due to COVID-19″ is hardly surprising…

Around here, it’s all shocking that any of it could be shocking.  Still…

We Could Always Do More Virus Stories

We already knew that local strains of the CV19 core were popping up worldwide.  Now, we’re seeing how there are likely up to a dozen in active circulation now.

Editor’s and assignment desk secret:  Hang a number on something to make it “breaking news.”

Which means to my non-medical mind that when a “vaccine” is finally forced on us,  the results are likely to be very much like the annual flu shot. Maybe it will work, maybe not.  Just in case:  We’re planning a statistics seminar in the near future…wait, how about right now?

A Colleague’s Email

OK, short class.  I am blessed knowing lots of smart people.  I look to them not for answers but to see how they are framing the questions.  So, when comes to this whole over-hyped vaccine crap, I look at their experiences in similar situations.  For example:

“Every damn place I go shopping that has a pharmacy, get hounded with, “Have you HAD your Flu Shot!”

My polite response being, “No Thank YOU!”  However, I do run across a few individuals that make it their life long mission to give everyone a flu shot that comes in the door.  For those people, my typical response is, “I don’t WANT IT, I don’t believe in it,  Why don’t you mind your own business!!!!!”

However, when a cute young thing at a pharmacy asked me why I didn’t believe in it, I mellowed and took time to explain why I did not believe in them. I started with, ” Proven Shots for Rubella, Mumps, Measles, have shown to be around 95% effective!”  Have no problem taking them.  But, when its reported year after year past shots were 10-35% effective, Whats the point?  A coin toss has a probability of 50% being heads or tail.

Roughly same probability as getting the flu.  You either got it or NOT!

I was quite surprised when the cute thing said, “I don’t believe in them either, but management told me to offer them to anyone that comes in the store!”  Now if I was 40 years younger I may have spent more time, however, those days are gone, so left the store with a smile on my face.

Truth being, when dealing with statistics, anything less than 51% is not that useful.  A good  (framing) idea behind all of this is the “Birthday problem Paradox.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

I ran across this problem in grade 12.  Did not understand it, looked impossible, so decided to check it out.  Whenever there was a group of more than 23 people, I brought up the birthday problem, everyone was interested, so participated with the experiment.  Much to everyone’s surprise it worked 6 out of 10 times.  If a match failed after 23 queries, an extra two or three found a match.

It was in the first year university stat course where I finally understood how all of this worked.  The graphs/curves in the wiki article are an excellent representation what it really means when someone says something is 20% effective.  If its 51% effective, than they have something to work with.  Anything less is just “noise” in the scheme of things.

As usual, my opinion only, not a sales job to forgo flu shots.  A decision everyone has to make on their own and live with the consequences.”

So it goes, here in data-based reality.  When it comes down to medical advice on pretty-much anything I begin with the “success rate” question.

For a low-risk med (like an antibiotic) working 60-70% of the time is “good enough” to try.  For something like my eye surgeries or naval hernia mesh implant, got to be in the high ninties.

When comes to a CV19 shot, I’ll apply the same decision-making process, except if there is a nano-tracking component, then odds of my participation rate are already welded to zero.  (Solid triple-pass gusset weld, I might add.)

Around the Ranch

When this unusually cool – and wet – “climate change” takes a break, Ure’s truly will be out working on Super Antenna-II which was written-up Sunday.

Speaking of which, inquiring minds ask:

“For a super antenna, have you considered phasing smaller antennas to achieve same gain as a single large one. (phased Array?)”

And the answer is yes, of course.  Where the smaller antennas fail, is in frequency agility.  I want something that will work extremely well from 3.5 to 30 MHz.  Phased arrays, colinears and such (Sterba or bobtail curtains and on an on), tend to work very well but only every-so-often when a wide frequency range is involved.

As to coax vs. open wire (or ladder) line?  A good article over here lays it out very nicely.

There is a simple way of “visioning” the antenna problem useful in all matters of electronic design.

Fundamentally, what you’re trying to do is “move power” (work) from your radio to your antenna.”  Two cases are made.  In one case “high voltage and low current” which is the higher impedance (open wire or ladder line) case.  The other is “high current, low voltage.”  Coaxial cable case.

In most instances, when we are moving power around, higher voltage (up to some point) is preferable.  This is why automotive electrical systems changed from 6-volt systems (nominal) to 12-volts decades ago.  And, it’s why our solar panels feed into a 24-Volt battery bank, not 12volts.  On bigger RE (renewable energy) systems, 48-volts (and up)_ is common.

Since the only time Super Antenna II would be operating resonant would be in the dipole mode on 2.66 Mhz and the 3rd (10.64 Mhz) and 5th harmonics (42.56 Mhz) aren’t useful to me “This was a case for Ladder Line!”

The design might have a few places across the spectrum where a decibel or so of advantage would go to LMR-400, but let’s not quibble.  And sure, we know about using deliberately mismatch 5-0 and 75 ohm coax and quarter wave matching sections and all that.  But remember, simplicity is a design aspect, as well.

The real secret to operation of SA-2 will be use of a great antenna tuner like one of my E.F. Johnson Matchboxes.  Reviews at eham.net still run 4.5 stars out of five and this is a design that came out in the early 1960’s.  Quick – other than the Collins R-390A what else has stood the test of time so well?

One of our readers was remarking on how his 1930’s vintage wind mill was still pumping water for several families because it was “built to last.”  The Johnson Matchbox series is along the same (Last Forever) design lines. Easy to work on, highly reliable, with just enough quirks to give you second-guessing opportunities galore!

Sanford And Son Visit?

Naw…just  Oilman2 and son exiting our joint Sunday morning…

They left with four excess shop lights, an extra fence gate, a Honda-powered waste water pump for the drill tower and the water drill rig (HydraJet, as I recall).

They will be putting in several wells and when the rig comes back – likely early fall sometime, OM2 will have put a custom bit or two on it because there’s no one better when it comes to any kind of drilling bit design.  You spend 40-years on rigs you get a sense of what works and don’t.

OM2’s son works as a park ranger and to have an ag-degreed park ranger endorsing my plans to limb-up everything in sight reduces the “Sierra Club-like” opposition to touching anything that looks like a tree.

Don’t remember if I mentioned it, might have been on PN, but the wife of the key machine operator of the logging company was out last week.  She told Elaine “Any time we have a man and woman with property, women just naturally don’t want trees cut.  Something about maternal instincts, I figure…”

In the Shop

Pottery stool is in glue-up:  If you have a jointer, pipe clamps, a gallon of TiteBond III waterproof and a planer, you can turn old “junk” wood into useful stuff.

But, before that unclamps, off to the studio to re-edit the podcast for Peoplenomics this week.

Not sure why things didn’t convert right, but now there’s a missing file somewhere so I’ll put on the deer-stalker hat and get after that, too.

“Game’s afoot.”  (Which Conan-Doyle musta figured made more sense than “Game’s an ankle…) Have a great “what’s left of it” and write when so moved…

george@ure.net