Reminder for Peoplenomics subscribers: Charts-only tomorrow due to the Holiday.
I bet you don’t even remember what day of the week the Fourth fell on last year. I’ll give you a hint: Tuesday.
For serious students of the market – also known as the art of making money with money while sitting on your ass – such questions are far from trivial. While they may not provide precise guidance, they at least give us some ideas about how equally crazy people acted a year ago.
Which gets us back to last year’s performance of the Dow – since we keep detailed daily notes on things like this in our personal trading journal.
Last year, the Friday before Fourth week was June 30th. The Dow, at least in my journal, closed the day at 21349.63. The day before the holiday, July 3, the Dow closed at 21479.27.
This little bit of market history would suggest that we would rally today around 140 points. Sure enough, looking at the futures, and hour and a half ahead of the open, we see them indicating the Dow will open up 114.
All of which is interesting, but far from useful since those days are behind us. What is ahead, however is the Fourth and the days after.
Last year, the day after the Fourth, the market was down, but only one point. It was the next day (Thursday of last year) that the market’s downside moment picked up a bit, dropping to 21320.01. We get the idea that between today’s close and Friday’s. we could drop 170 points, or so.
No, this not advice. Rather. it’s just one way to look at things. By the way, if a person (last year) had bought at the low-after the Fourth and held until the middle of August, they would have gained almost 3.3 percent. This is when occasional summer rallies come along.
We shall see…
Trade May Decide This Year
NY Times “Dealbook” newsletter this morning leads to a Financial Times piece “A $1 trillion trade war? Don’t bet against it.”
The key things to watch – because it is very revelatory about our “information future” – is to watch how China is deftly using its Great Firewall of China to manage it’s markets and public expectations.
To keep it simple, the Great Firewall allows China to have the information equivalent of a two-currency system. Internal and external.
So on the Internal side (Beijing side of their Fire Wall) Business Insider reports “China is trying to downplay a brewing trade war with the US by censoring comments from Trump and US authorities.”
In addition to the Fire Wall, China is now warning its citizens about the dangers of traveling to the USA…That Reuters story says the Chinese are warning of “…including expensive medical bills, the threats of public shootings and robberies, searches and seizures by customs agents, telecommunications fraud and natural disasters.” In other words, real-world life in America which is getting scary….
Outside their Fire Wall, on the Wild-Wild-Web, we see the Wall St. Journal offering ’em pointers in “Here’s How China Can Escalate a Trade War With the U.S..”
To keep your thinking straight in today’s world, change your wetware’s lookup from thinking www means worldwide web to www means world’s weaponized web. It will fix Ure thinking up.
Social Weaponized Further
Here we go again: The NY Post reports how EPA Director Scott Pruitt has become the latest Trump official to be harassed at a public eating establishment. All of which would be a nothing-burger EXCEPT for the next two things that happened: The teacher posted this to Facebook and then the Anti-Trump media got hold of it and off it goes,. snowballing.
Gore: Weaponizing Summer
What happens in the summer? Besides the fireworks tomorrow?
Don’t mid us…we view it as weaponizing summer, though it all underscores the danger of too much hot air…
By the way, In Norway, forest fires are causing train scheduling issues and Sweden has an outbreak – this all in addition to the Lancashire fire in the UK. Hot times in the summer. Of course, they’ve all had fires in the past, it’s just that fire spreads well as video…like wildfire one might say.
Lies on ICE
No, 19 DHS/ICE types did not call for ICE to be abolished, says the Weekly Standard.
What happened was the 19 called for an internal restructuring – but the leftists media lied that into “abolish. ” Mind-numbing bullshit, but that’s how the world’s weaponized web works.
It’s not just in the USA that social has weaponized: Five Killed in Latest Mob Attack After Rumors on Social Media. Here’s What to Know About India’s WhatsApp Murders.
Laser Guns Get Real
China has a new kind of small manpack laser that can set someone’s hair afire at 1 km. range. Presumably, it cooks what’s holding the hair up, too.
Better living through technology, huh?
Surveying the Wreckage…
Facebook bug unblocks people on 800K+ accounts and this comes on top of other tech issues. Like what? Oh, try The FBI, SEC and Justice Department Now Want to Know What Facebook Knew About Cambridge Analytica for example.
Hope they ask about Hillary getting access to the same and more per her campaign officials bragging back when, too. Guess that would be asking too much, huh?
Numbers Mean Something…
ISM numbers later this morning.
ADP employment when you get back from partying – Thursday morning.
Bond market closes early today…
That’s it – breakfast is on and I need to send an email to my friends Elliott and the Millennial Caller…getting behind on my correspondence. See you Thursday!