Welcome to the “Warm-up” War

War rarely begins with trumpets. More often, it starts with something small — a sanction, a strike, a “limited” operation with a tidy name. In the Cold War, superpowers perfected the art of brushfire and proxy conflicts: calibrated moves designed to test defenses, send signals, and preserve plausible deniability before anyone reached for the nuclear lever. What we may be witnessing now in the Middle East looks less like a full invasion — and more like what I call a “warm-up war.”

A warm-up war isn’t about immediate conquest. It’s about positioning. It’s about building “cut-outs” for policymakers, probing responses, conditioning markets, and managing escalation one rung at a time. The opening move rarely decides the game — but it tells you what kind of game is being played. And in a nuclear age, even limited conflicts carry shadows far longer than their headlines.

In this weekend’s Peoplenomics report, we break down the strategic architecture behind these opening moves, what history teaches about limited wars that didn’t stay limited, and what it could mean for markets, metals, energy — and your own contingency planning.

Warm-up extends into personal health, too. With some notes on using personal thermogenisis to help weight loss.  And 30+ pages of ChartPack, if you are still knee deep in markets…

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43 thoughts on “Welcome to the “Warm-up” War”

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  1. Ure-ites : it’s been my honor to know and associate with some of America’s finest. Our kids are now front line, again, and we the People should _always_ have one plan while warriors are in the fray … unconditional support. Let’s not natter let’s not waiver. Once in the field let’s hope for speedy end where ours come home.

    IceMan Egor
    _/)__________

    ps – it’s past sunset in Tehran. We own the night.
    https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/iran/tehran

    • Clicked the link. Thanks.
      .., but what I found fascinating – and to be honest., it has always bugged me. In the blue square that shows the time difference – it gave my little town, by name.
      Pinpointed my ass within milliseconds. .., damn.

      • TBS : settle Mister. Take your meds. I can assure you I will support “them” my own dam(n) self. E

        • Back there Trump did day he’d fix the VA so there’s that.

          Stay tuned:

          VA to invest all-time high of nearly $5B to improve health care infrastructure

          “Under President Trump, VA is putting Veterans first, and this historic investment underscores that fact,” said VA Secretary Doug Collins. “Improved facilities, equipment and infrastructure mean better care for Veterans, and these funds will enable VA to achieve that goal.”

          Although this sounds like more Wounded Warrior garble.

          “In 2025 and 2026, the Trump administration has focused on restructuring the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) by emphasizing privatization of care, reducing staff, and revising benefits”

          Send Barron, front line infantry!

  2. you should read the longer post, here is the opening,,,
    “Shanaka Anslem Perera ?
    @shanaka86
    They did not bomb Iran. They waited for Iran’s entire leadership to sit down in the same room and then they bombed Iran.

    Months of intelligence. Thousands of hours of surveillance and signal intercepts. One variable: the moment the Supreme Leader, the President, and senior military command gathered in a single location at the same time.,,, ”
    https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2027725563251847510?s=20

      • .., damn !

        I was secretly hoping he would escape this round.

        This going change/force a lot of decisions – based on the killing of the top ranking Muslim.

        • I agree….. It’s hard to see this as a win . Taking out a top figure doesn’t resolve the underlying tensions instead it usually just accelerates them…. This kind of event forces decisions that might have been avoidable before , and the fallout rarely stays contained . It’s the kind of moment that makes the world feel less stable, not more stable… .

        • The Iranian regime was NOT a TOP DOWN led political movement led by a “STRONG MAN” … it is a Broad and Wide RELIGIOUS MOVEMENT believed in by millions.

          Killing the leading RELIGIOUS leader of a widespread centuries old Religious Movement will be like the killing of the Pope would be. If that would happen the Catholic Church wouldn’t just “disappear”, like a strong man led polical movement can if it’s leader is killed. Often times in the face of adversity Religious Movements GROW STRONGER

          Going to have to wait this out and see what direction Iran, and Shiites AROUND THE WORLD go.

        • You are a warrior. You know the advantage of pushing an adversary into acting before he’s ready.

          We and the Israelis, dropped nearly 440 pieces of ordinance all over Iran, all of which impacted/exploded within 1sec. Our time of attack was determined by the opsec meeting Khamenei called, the day before.

          Don’t think for a minute, the stuff going on now hasn’t already been gamed-out and contingencies made. (Iran bombing the French port and Cyprus were probably not planned, Macron and Sturmer wetting themselves and ignoring the missiles probably was…)

          We just lost 3 sojers, and NORTHCOM has issued an order for all military to go plainclothes whenever they’re off-base or off-station.

          There could be as many as 70,000 sleepers in North America (I think the number is closer to 30,000, but I haven’t been privy to this intel for several years…)

        • least we forget the Arabian pennisula is full other thinking ‘Muslums’, Not getting along with the snake, the head of the radical snake was cut off, as Trump is out to kill the multi headed hydra, he got cartel leaders in mexico and maduro,, bombs the speed boats with large shipments, causing $$$ losses,, still has more hydra heads to remove, look to the royals and rothchild banking cartels
          Israel ,the modern nation, is a rothchild/royal creation
          ‘Q’ tolds US ,,, “saving israel for last”, so wait for the last before ya go all nutz calling it bull sheeze, the game is still in play,, check has occured, a few more moves and it will be checkmate, the allatola was a puppet
          remember the puppet master controls the opposing puppets on the stage

          FOLLOW THE MONEY to see who controls

    • The thing is nothing should be believed from either side til we get about a week down the road. Remember we annihilated their nuclear capabilities only to find out again that they are hours away from having the bomb for virtually 25 consecutive years.

  3. and so It begins…as predicted/viewed.

    Events start cascading with various scales, spreading world wide.

    all remote viewing groups have viewed likely scenarios for what will become GLOBAL conflict. Already “rods of god”/new weapon tech been unleashed. More new weapon tech pending.. But the Public Violence Issues in our malls and other public places – rut-row psych-terror “to go”, want Fries wit that ? Personally looking forward to seeing the Physical Phights breaking out in congress..Can Not Wait !
    As for neighbors to South – fuggetaboutit! Mexico will No GO area of contentions.

    On z top of all the above – count on Flooding events EU, and a major flare/CME causing seriuos damage to Satillites. Crypto ? BTC lookslike it amy drop into $55k range for awhile..but then back up : D

    Stock market ?
    “OH Shit !” moment coming – put I thinks everyone kinda suspected A Cull was coming SOONER than Later. We in it now.

    Cheers – as Ure life will never be the same after today..NEVER.
    bwaahahahah

      • Sore Loser ?

        All money currently in circulation is DIGITAL – that must run on ELECTRICITY. ALL MONEY

        Have a nice day Genius, and dont forget Gold and Silver, even Osmium, are not effected by solar killshotz, in fact they are impervious to the Waves of light particles..

  4. “A warm-up war isn’t about immediate conquest. It’s about positioning. It’s about building “cut-outs” for policymakers, probing responses, conditioning markets, and managing escalation one rung at a time.”

    food for thought
    well consider the war on the home front,, the epstein files are MISSING data entries from 1999 to 2001,,, takes this guy about 38 seconds to get to the chart
    https://rumble.com/v76b5m6-why-was-ghislaine-maxwell-invited-to-participate-in-shadow-commission-on-91.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_a

    why would they be missing??? maybe for prosecution in a court room.
    hummmmm 911 ? an attack on America,,, ?by foxes in the henhouse?

  5. Once Trump captured Maduro, and Venezuelan oil production, it felt like World War 3 check mate to make China want a stable Iran, and Russia feel more heat. Putin still pissed about Trump giving the Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine on top of Obama CIA operation to remove pro-Russian leader of Ukraine.

    • Maidan was not CIA or Obama. It was State and Victoria Nuland through USAID, and George Soros. Barry signed off once Soros’ Swedish NAZI’s arrived in Kiev, but it wasn’t his play…

  8. yep the response and reaction of pakistan is very important . you picked that up well G . the pakistanis condemned the attack swiftly and now sit silent . we wait and see

  10. PN_Special_War_With_Iran [ over on the pay-side ]

    Well done., well thought out. Good read – if there is anything ‘good’ about any of it.

    One point though – from what I have been reading – the Pakistani ‘people’ are watching Iran very closely. They too seem to be completely fed-up with the religious holy order and the military on how they are running their country. How the Iranian people react to this newest military strike could very well be the match that lights the fuse in several Middle Eastern countries. [ Will the current Ayatollah and his closest members actually escape to Russia? Why would Russia want them?]
    Two, or three – all at the same time could be a real blood-bath for the entire region. [ My opinion.]
    How Isreal responds to the retaliatory strikes will be closely watched.

    • propaganda i feel about the islam mob throwing in the cards .. they probably look at america , ice , epstein , ai and say what the . nah they wont bite the hand yet . we all know the blokes behind this .. and they are a weird mob .

    • Doubt it. Remember, Pakistan came into existence because the Muslim population couldn’t coexist with the Hindus and Sikhs. The Brits spun it off from Colonial India so the Mohammedans would have their own turf.

      IRGC grunts have escaped en masse into Pakistan over the past several hours. Dunno if that’s so they can regroup, or integrate with the Paks. Either way it’s likely to be an eventual problem for a free Iran…

      • One word for ciray, since thats all it appears he can handle/understand in his blood lust for more DEATHS, JIHAD .

        Its now for Breakfast, Lunch and Dinner, geniuses.

        “sniff, sniff, hmm is that Cheeseburgers I smell, sniff sniff, smells like VICTORY!” – General Bonespurs

  11. i bet you a chicken burger the picker in florida is still bullish . heard he was seen at mar a lago on the weekend dancing the YMCA in a maga hat

  12. re: “The Manchurian Candidate”, 2004

    Ray,
    Thank you for the missing piece of the puzzle. It seems back in 1965 as future Mayor Giuliani contemplated entry to the seminary, PMOI/MEK formed under a Marxist-Leninist flag in Tehran. The anti-Shah group subsequently opposed post-Revolutionary clerics in Iran. If Wikipedia is to be believed, the PMOI/MEK’s headquarters eventually found sanctuary in Albania thanks to efforts of the Bush2 administration from where they currently minister to their flock.

    It seems years after Mayor Giuliani backed Senator McCain’s 2008 presidential run, people of influence had PMOI/MEK removed from terror group lists. Here are a couple of Wikipedia-posted images from the #45 era featuring the Mayor and perhaps friends of PMOI/MEK:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:American_politicians_at_the_PMOI_event_2018.jpg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:John_Bolton_speaking_at_the_PMOI_event.jpg

    • re: Persxian Ghost
      feat: March 627 ad

      The “X” account of the late Iranian leader received an update three hours ago quoting Holy Quran 33:23. According to ChatGPT that piece signifies death through martyrdom without having compromised.

      The exerpt is associated with the Battle of the Trench which took place at Medina in 627. A defensive trench fortification was dug to separate “believers” from “hypocrites”. The battle also goes by the name of Khandaq (ar: that which has been dug). Another name of the battle is Confederates (non-believers and Jews against Islam).

      The second last “X” post made by the Iranian leader at the start of Ramadan reads as follows: “This island of corruption (meaning USA) is only one example. There is much more of this. Just as this was not apparent and became exposed, there are many other things that will soon come to light.”

      His final “X” post kicking off Ramadan quoted Holy Quran 2:194 – “So should anyone aggress against you, assail him in the manner he assailed you.” Again leaning on ChatGPT the history behind this quotation suggests warfare is to be avoided during holy months. However if attacked during such a time, “defensive reciprocity is permitted but not escalation”.

      Ramadan ends on Thursday March 19 this year.

  13. Hmm… the pump less hydroponic grow system.. check out Larry’s page..
    when I first visited with Larry he was working at Wal-Mart in minnesota.. he was using pop bottles, then a kiddy pool and Wal-Mart bags..

    I made one of the pop bottle grow systems..it really worked pretty good..
    I didn’t have much luck with the kiddy pool but had a great deal of success with the dog watering bowl..
    we visited he had really poor soil..same as me..its all gravel and clay..when I hired a contractor he took the money and ran..( where I got my ten thousand dollar hammer lol its a good one..the wife won’t let me get it gold plated lol)
    he had a corn stalk that he had to have a ladder to pick the ears..using air pruning .. the root system filled the five gallon bucket..
    what he did was take the idea of the ancient Chinampas which were human?made agricultural islands that were developed over a thousand years ago to float in shallow lake beds. They were constructed by staking out a rectangle then weaving reeds or branches to form a frame, and filling it with mud, sediment, and organic matter. By doing this it created a raised, fertile platform surrounded by canals that provided constant moisture and nutrient flow where the rain gutter grow bed has not rafts but buckets or pop bottles suspended into the gutter or stream using a wicking method what I call the straw method..the waters sucked up as the top dries.

    Archaeologists using LiDAR and aerial surveys have revealed that large areas of the Amazon Basin especially in Bolivia and Brazil contain extensive canal systems that were used as garden cities…
    These canals were part of a wetland?agriculture system that functioned just like the chinampas…..One of the factors for the fall of the Maya was prolonged drought along with stress of the people which was one of the most powerful forces pushing an already?strained civilization past its breaking point…. Much like the fall of Egyptian empire a story that closely mirrors the Maya in one crucial way… climate stress that struck a system that was already stretched by political, economic, and social pressures. A severe drought was one of the major catalysts, but it became decisive only because Egypt’s stability depended so heavily on predictable Nile floods….the Egyptians used canal systems and raised bed that was fed by the flooding of the nile..all these systems are similar to the rain utter grow system and the Funny thing is..The chinampas, Maya raised fields, Amazonian canal?fields, and Egyptian basin irrigation all share the same underlying principles as larry halls rain?gutter grow system and the Kratky hydroponic pools. Each of them are variations on a single idea…..

    https://youtu.be/Jc1mUbfAxpM?si=NO1xXFr_z2OLiwU2

    https://youtu.be/pNCfwOGGB1c?si=648PLSfZkvgGf-Qh

    https://youtu.be/LQIjF7TcNcg?si=XJ_SG5jZ6xkf1NCf

    https://youtu.be/wvwg5MdS-T0?si=wU5AgwT2YCWZIjJC

    • Recent Genetic research on the Maya, Olmecs has revealed the true reason for the their ultimate societal demise…The Aztecs.

      quick side note – all ancient entities ,non european,whose name starts with an A, are typically DARK , related to the Annuna/Annunaki Warriors= the Fallen. They who enslaved and brutally slaughtered Humanity for 1000’s of years..THOUSANDS OF YEARS. That much Trauma over thousands of years leave genetic echo’s in our DNA of ancient fear.

      All the ancient cultures in Central America were finally Consumed by the Aztecs. All MALES were wiped off the planet, ALL MALES. Only the Female bloodlines survived, to this day. The only outlier in this whole takeover operation is question of Timing. The Aztecs apparantly knew PREZACTLY when the Maya and Olmecs were at their weakest. Both civilazations were on the Decline as Aztecs swept over everyone. How did they know the Timing ?
      *Yes consumed – more Genetic testing at Hovenweep confirm canabilism, and that threat is what drove ancient AmeriIndians to build cliffside dwellings…
      Inquiring minds…………..

  14. May years ago., in my youth., I went through just over a year of some brutal military training. Ranger School in the sixties was hell on earth., the JFK Jungle Warfare School in Panama had a 90% washout rate. My class started with 22 – by the end – two weeks to go, there were only three of us left, and two graduated. The other guy was a civilian., rarely said anything., nothing if you did speak to him directly.., which I assumed he was a CIA recruit.
    With that training, and my attitude & arrogance I became very good at sneaking into the bad guys own back yard., blowing up his shit., breaking all his toys and slipping quietly back into the jungle. I took great pride in our accomplishments and that we were never caught – though it was close a couple of times. [ Thank the Gods for Apache gunships.]
    I said all of that to say this: When I look at a war map of the Middle East – I have one permanently mounted on the back of one of my math white-boards., that I have been annotating for years [ 3×5 ft ]- and all the chess moves and asymmetrical possibilities it brings up the very a scary realization that one single move could blow the entire region into a massive, multi-year hell-hole of war.
    It never occurred to me when I started this study, that so many people could have such hate for each other.., and that is something that is futile to fight. You might win a battle, or two., sure, but you will never stop the hate. Never. Generation after generation with the same dogma., the same teachings., the same rhetoric and always the same hate for each other., constantly amplified and reinforced by skirmished and killings.
    You can not hope to defeat that.
    .
    “Stay Frosty !”

    • dLynn : seems to me there’s a possible better outcome available. But, these sects and factions have been “at it” forever, since dirt was new. Watch the boiling every-generational hatred between Sunnis and Shiites.

      There’s a message for us there.
      Tribal is bad.
      Egor

      ps – thanks for your service Ranger

  15. February 2026 is gone in both Jerusalem and DC. 30 days left until everything collapse per Nostradamus. Or…. Stay tuned.

    The Jerusalem folks say Turkey on deck next.

  16. The U.S. military says it’s “looking into” reports of a strike on a girls’ elementary school in Minab after Iran’s ambassador to the U.N. claimed more than 100 children were killed.

    https://x.com/i/status/2027956036410257832

    ‘Looks like we found the first of those IRGC missiles [which were] set up to target Iranian civvies…

  17. KyivPost
    @KyivPost
    Putin has agreed to accept US security guarantees for Ukraine, Zelensky’s office chief Budanov said.

    Budanov added that the Russian army is not preparing to advance on Kyiv at this time. He also expressed confidence in the prospects of peace talks, noting that the issue of demilitarized zones has already been resolved.

    https://x.com/KyivPost/status/2027802736486502427?s=20

    ‘Looks like Putin and Belousov don’t like what they’ve seen in Iran.

    Irrespective any manufacturing or military advantage China may have versus the United States, within a week we will control 40% of their petroleum…

  19. France became the first country to make planned obsolescence a criminal offense. Any manufacturer that deliberately shortens a product’s lifespan faces up to two years in prison, a €300,000 fine, or up to 5% of annual revenue. The nonprofit HOP, founded by activist Laetitia Vasseur, pushed for years to make it happen.
    In 2020, Apple was fined $27 million for intentionally slowing older iPhones and forced to post a public admission on its website for a month. France also introduced a mandatory Repairability Index: every smartphone, laptop, and appliance now carries a score from 1 to 10 showing how easy it is to fix. A national Repair Fund subsidizes repairs to make fixing cheaper than replacing.
    No other country has gone this far, and the EU is now working on similar legislation.

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