Wave II’s Goodbye?

A more detailed look at a possible wave count that – if it continues on track – may be the harbinger or horror, the bringer of bummer, and the foreshadow of famine as the year rolls along.  Yes, it’s likely to be even worse than our alliterations.

The foreshadowing is seen in charts, murmured by economics, dismissed by Bidenistas, and yet, right on cue, our secondary Wave bounce rally came in Friday at 50 percent.

ChartPack first this morning with headlines filling in the speculation of what’s ahead.

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author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

53 thoughts on “Wave II’s Goodbye?”

  1. “with yet-another Fed rate hike, the consumer is likely to draw the conclusion “Buy now before prices go up…”

    MAYBE… but.. groceries have doubled and in many places tripled with the promise more price hikes are on their way…
    Then the President signed that bill.. I have already been told that utilities are going to go up.. Natural gas.. they haven’t mentioned electricity.. but visiting with the man last year.. he said to expect a huge increase this year..
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickgleason/2021/01/31/how-joe-bidens-tax-plan-will-drive-up-utility-bills-nationwide/?sh=1c76114331b6
    Now those increases don’t reflect the increased operating expenses.. unless they are giving them fuel alone.. for the trucks.. their operation expenses has gone through the roof.. and their employees got raises.. and are planned to get another raise this next fiscal year.. no one else is giving raises they in turn are cutting hours with wage hour earners….
    the people I visit with are all cutting back on spending.. the counties are adjusting home taxes to provide for their rising costs.. as well..
    I think JB and the democratic party would have to give out one heck of a rebate to get people to spend again.. they want to.. but it just isn’t there..

    • Because of DEFICIT FINANCING
      by our majority’s choices ;-((
      Easy as pie — consume what you can’t afford.

    • If we weren’t staring a stock crash ‘n “everything else” crash in the face I’d have loaded up with SJT long ago. Too danged afraid to be in anything now.

  2. “roof”

    Too bad you went with a roof instead of a canopy. The canopy would make the property like a true-size diorama, not to mention reducing cooling bills. Paint the ceiling of the canopy. Special lighting effect laser cubes. G’s interpretation of Burning Man.

    Speaking of famine last night I went to $WMT. All canned Keystone meat was gone with exception to one dented can of chicken. Someone else started what I’m doing, filling a backroom.

    So I went to the other $WMT and bought all the shredded beef. There were still a couple chicken and several pork on the shelf. Ground beef hasn’t been replenished in a long time. May go to the other, other $WMT today and snatch-up all the beef. Online inventory says they have a case. LOL The first $WMT had a different brand of beef in 12oz cans but it’s pre-mixed with BBQ sauce. Probably made in China. Pass.

    I speculate that when the stores are replenished with the meat prices will be up at least 1%. Will update.

    ‘Get it while the git’in is good.’ Will go in a few minutes. Ha!

    Speculation is King Charles III is gonna do the digital passports and digital currency. The crash of the West is going to be beyond description. Those who rode the COVID needle really will have ‘failing hearts’.

      • I went to several grocery stores today, looking for specific items that I like to eat. When you are paying $1.76+ for a can of peas or a can of soup, I expect at least two years shelf life on the label, and no dents. I saw a lot of dented cans, but most expiration dates were 2024, and few 2025.
        While I wasn’t shopping for canned meats, I noted that they were in stock at the stores I went in. Store traffic was heavy, but I saw no evidence of panic buying. I did notice that the shoppers were biased toward oldsters, who may be running several weeks ahead of the pack on restocking. I was out stocking up a month before the COVID panic hit. Coworkers I warned that a lockdown was coming dismissed me as an “apocalyptic”. They got their hands-on training on COVID Panic Saturday.
        OK, maybe I should have been buying canned meats. I will contemplate this evening.

      • Canning is a great idea.

        I’m west of Detroit and really don’t know how long I’ll holdout. In preparation for fleeing cans are durable.

        G posted the U.S. city nuke map the other day. For some reason St. Louis wasn’t on the map but Detroit was right in the middle. Once the power plants go down they aren’t coming back up. Pirates and vikings for realz.

        We are in the good times and Mississippi can’t keep the sewage lines from back flowing into the water supply lines. It’s getting to be like Egypt around these United States.

        Water crisis: Murky brown liquid spews from Jackson, Mississippi faucet

        Startling footage out of Jackson, Mississippi Friday of murky liquid flowing from the faucet of a residential home underscored the serious water crisis plaguing the poverty-stricken city.
        https://nypost.com/2022/09/10/mississippi-faucet-spews-murky-brown-liquid-during-jackson-water-crisis/

  3. Housing . Looks to me like the tip of the pin is about to touch the bubble.
    * * *
    The August 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report from real estate data company ATTOM indicates there were 34,501 houses with foreclosure filings last month. This is defined as “default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions.” This is up 118% from the same month a year ago.
    In August, 1 of every 4,072 homes in the United States had a foreclosure filing in the top 223 cities based on population. This rate is nearly double for the same month one year ago.
    [WSJ article]

    • Sometimes we can’t be sure which topics are offensive.

      BoA offers zero down mortgages to so-called ‘minorities’. Frankly, if whichever minority as defined by BoA start moving in to the area the houses are most likely being financed with zero down. Zero-down is like leasing a car, no ‘required’ maintenance and payments optional. Walk at anytime like in ’08…. or was it ’12.

      And another thing I noticed in my area is a lot of Indians. It dawned on me if the collapse gets really bad, really really bad, they may leave the U.S. and go back to the old country. If the CW2 idea gets going the police will scatter making new comers leery of safety. Balkanization is a given.

      When the hammer of vengeance starts swinging around we don’t who or what will be struck.

      • In smaller town areas, the police are often required to be resident in the area. That gives them an incentive to keep that area cleaned up since their families live there.

      • I get most of my CivWar material from Gone with the Wind.

        Scarlett and Rhett are fleeing.

        Scarlett: Oh, wait. I forgot to lock the front door. (Rhett busts out laughing) What are you laughing at?

        Rhett Butler: At you, locking the Yankees out.

        There were crazies in the woods during their time. When the power goes out for us we’ll face our crazies.

        Unless I’m wrong. Maybe nothing will change during CW2. Lights will stay on, road repair will continue, direct deposits will continue to flow.

        How do you imagine a Civ War?

  4. I too., enter a short position late Friday. Though I really don’t like to hold a position over the weekend., “It just seemed like the right thing to do…..,” [ put options ]

  5. Met with the financial advisor Thursday to complete phase 3 of the derisking process we started in January. A really boring portfolio where cash is king for now. Afterwards it was lunch at a nice Italian place and I gave him a new Stetson. You’re still on the hook for our fees and you can’t write off the hat on your taxes he said. Crap. Should have got him the open crown style with the 2 3/4 inch rim and tassels that looks like an upside down salad bowl on a platter since he promised to wear it to the company Christmas party this year.

    • Every rancher needs a Stetson. Mine’s been in the box for decades, poor thing. It was replaced by “gimme caps” and a $5 safari hat I bought at Ace Hardware back in the 90s. Just can’t bring myself to put a several hundred dollar felt hat on a sweaty old head out in the dust and the mud and the flying manure. Same reason I gave up wrist watches when cell phones came out and everything began to have a clock on it. Just can’t stand to mess up something pretty.

      • Summer is a $100 straw Resistol, too hot for beaver fur. Those are for winter and Sunday go to meeting. There are a couple of $20 straw hardware store cowboy hats hanging by the door too. The trip last week included the Stetson store and a stop by the boot store. Holy crap are they proud of their stuff.
        Stay safe.

      • Broad brim straw ‘Lifeguard Hat’ for tropical sun protection when out in the daytime. And a kerchief tied around my head for sweat protection. Turns out grey hair does not block sun like my youthful dark hair did.

      • A cheap Timex with a large dial is good for perhaps 10+ years in the mud and the dirt and the grime. It costs $30 or so, plus inflation, of course. Mine only leaves my wrist when I take showers.

        I rarely carry a cell phone since it would be destroyed during my normal daily activities.

      • Yep. When the cowboy look hit the runways the price went through the roof. I hate going in to Cavender’s western wear.
        But when even the old-time restaurant here that always served the ranchers and farmers took out their hat racks on the booths and even by the door I just couldn’t see wearing a potato chip in to their establishment. I was raised to not have a hat on when you eat and there’s no place to put it otherwise unless there’s a unoccupied space at the table.

        I do love a good pair of lace-up work boots, though. I’ll pay a hefty price for Winter boots like Red Wing’s Irish Setters that last for years but Cabela’s low/medium cut boots I’m in now can be had at Bass Pro for a very reasonable price if you check in on their sales now and then. These old things are about 2+ years old and I walked through water the other day and they still don’t leak.

      • “Which explains out here in hibbilly country why an oil field hat, work boots (of cheap sneakers) are the working man’s wear.”

        A city slicker was driving through the back roads of Texas when he sees a cowboy working on a fence.. stopping to get directions.. he asks.. are you a cow boy.. the cowboy says YEUUP… I sure am.. so why do you wear a hat like that.. well it keeps the sun out of my eyes and helps to keep me from being sun burned.. .. and why do you wear that neckerchief around your neck.. well that there is so that I can wipe the sweat often my face and if you dip it in the ole creek.. and tie put it on it will help you stay cool in the hot summer sun.. what are those called that look like half pants.. those there are my chaps.. I wear those so that when I am chasing the doggies through the brush the brush wont tear my pants apart and chafe my legs.. what is that rope you have along side of you.. that there is my lariat.. I use that to help control the doggies that get stuck in the brush.. and can use it to tow the things that need to be towed.. why a gun.. well around these here parts there are threats of all kinds.. from those that slither along the ground to the coyotes and other wild varmint’s that threaten my doggies..
        wow that is interesting.. but why do you wear NIKE’s.. oh that is so that you can tell us apart from Truckers..

  6. Charts are looking more decisive (thanks for Ure interp for subscribers George). Momo players are still feeding moves / fanning flames in both directions but … Bigs are getting small with their positions. It’s always comforting to have more scooped into your pocket than riding on the tables.

    Write when you get small,
    Egor

    ps – a Steve Martin quip? I resemble that remark :0)

  7. Re: Roll the tape, crickets chirping

    Merely days ago in her leadership victory speech newly minted UK PM Truss declared that she would govern “like a conservative”. Apparently heating gas, etc. pricing is now to be frozen for 2 years costing as estimated £150 billion in subsidies. As well in deference to the nations in mourning The Bank of England has deferred anticipated interest rate hikes until after September 22nd. This is not investment advice.

    I didn’t watch the “King’s Speech” in its entirety. However I believe I saw mention that it was “prerecorded”. Someday Hollywood will be invited to the White House?

    No doubt all thank the corgis for their decades of dutiful service about the Palace. Please do welcome a new breed in town, the Queen Consort’s Jack Russell Terriers, Beth & Bluebell into the Court Grounds. Hunters beware, one imagines there will be warning signs about the garden tea parties to watch out for B&B’s holes dug in search of buried treasure.

    Let’s get back to DJ Ure removing another cured classic from the acetate vault. Yes folks, shovels at the ready for another Fab Four rabbit hole?
    “Dig It”.

  8. I have sometimes wondered if “Elliott Technology” — or, ET for short — could illuminate other things, like socio-political trends.

    Thing is…

    What’s the unit of measurement? With financial it is the dollar, of course. The “Base” is whatever stocks or instruments comprise what’s in the box; but the evaluation of it is easy Add up the prices of the pieces, and you have a result –a metric — for “How Things Are Doing.” Simple arithmetic. Trends are spotable.

    But what would the units be for socio-political E-Waving?

    It’s predictive value seems possibly great, but what are the raw non-dollar denominated data points? The Rep/Dem ratio of the house of representatives? The Neilsen ratings for late-night “couch program,” comedy-based TeeVee talk shows? The number of arrests for simple battery? The most popular paint colors for cars? Hemline heights? The general anxiety level over war? Enviro Doom Porn frequency of Greta Toonburg appearances?

    Raw data points you could make a basket out of — and spot trends, slopes, and channels. As with any portfolio, some are losers, and some are winners — but where is the inexorable tide running?

    Quality of life? Security? Confidence in a sane world?

    What else could E-Tech predict?

    73

    • Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave fame always made the point that EW Theory was a measure of the psychological response of crowds, and so is a measure of things like socio-political trends. All you have to do is define your units of measurement

    • William otRR,

      If 1929 featured stock tips from elevator operators, 2022 offers equity funds out of Compton? I was surprised to hear commentators say retiring tennis phenom Serena Williams cashed out $96 million during her entire career on the tennis tour. I was even more surprised to read now on CNBC that apparently in this past month of March her multi-billion dollars worth equity fund raised $111 million. Is that some sweetly tuned racket or what?

      And now here’s billionaire Kim Kardashian linking up with former Carlyle Group’s Jay Sammons to launch Skky Partners. The pair “hope to leverage (their) complementary expertise to build the next generation Consumer & Media private equity firm.”

      Folks, I think we have all reached realization that Malibu buns of steel forged from cheap plastic don’t hold up so well under East Texas scrutiny. Let’s segue into Tool Times and join DJ Ure in studio setting up the vcr forecasting the Botox Rebellions. Here we go –
      Richard Simmons
      “No Ifs, Ands, or Butts”.

  9. Wave 2’s goodbye..as in two times as they lay lizzie into her hole in the ground. Latest US life expectancy stats are out, and we be losing moar LIFE by the year! A 100% complete FAILURE = US Govmint Down 2% ?

    Hell G dog – life expectancy is higher in Cuba now, imagine that free health care, cheap stoogies, rum and plenty o fish in the sea.
    https://substack.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.JJZIlhFVrxEUQ3d9gqvoYs2NVNRpVTmKuslLHAezYOM?

    Hell all a man needs after that is an ugly women to make his wife..to be happy for the rest o his life.* or so the song says ..https://youtu.be/eBO_10GVf74 ..and loonger life it will be if Youse get the hell out of DeathlandAmerica.

    Silver scissors been mighty busy snipping lifelines of the infected,vaxxed and vexed (OD’s,Suicide..) past 2 years – will they ever wake up ? Seeing the kneelers & all the other mesmerized “slaves” disgusting displays of fealty towards the vile family that is windsor kinda inclined to say NOPE – no wakey.

    In celebration of the new monarch of the world, its hotdogs and pizza for EVERYONE! hip hip moar darkness!

    Cue the antidote – Z return , “to the left- to the left..walk it by yo self” https://youtu.be/UVKooAlER20
    * Should own this simple, popular dance – practice is simple and fun, specially with a partner and or kids.

    • Good to see Chuck finally got a job.
      BTW, back when he married Diane, there was a song titled “Drink Up Chuck and Di”.

    • hmm. Reminds me of drinking ice cold Budweisers with conchs on the BBQ. I imagine the aesthetic in GITMO just isn’t quite as nice today as it was during the Blind Man’s Bluff years.. Mind the Barracudas….

    • Really nice chart. Thanks for sharing. Just looking at the ‘yearly’ increase of items I eat (eggs, potatoes, etc) was very enlightening. And we know how it will continue.

      Cheers

      • One real problem is that even if we don’t need to buy energy from these providers, we still have to pay the base charges to keep the service on. In many cases, lack of service for some time can trigger the need for “inspections” by licensed professionals before that service becomes active again, so it’s often cheaper to just keep the gas and juice on. In some jurisdictions, lack of juice or water service can have your house declared “uninhabitable” and be condemned. This is idiotic, but it’s reality in many places. We can be assured that the base charges will continue to go up as everything else does.

    • Thanks for the link. Quite clear that rationing in food, energy, and fertilizer is occuring. Ration coupons are called dollars and Euros. Looks to me as if inflation is not the appropriate paradigm; wartime rationing is more like it. One of the consequences of rationing is black markets. Should be interesting.

  10. “MAYBE… but.. groceries have doubled and in many places tripled with the promise more price hikes are on their way…”

    Because of DEFICIT FINANCING by our majority’s choices

    • However, too few will listen, therefore it will continue.
      Why is “deficit financing” NEVER a subject in public??

      • It’s more weasel words. Best to call it “paying with IOU’s”, since even the least educated will understand that.

      • I believe at this point of the pushing the noodle.. they have No choices left.. except to dump more water on the table.. if they dry it up.. the noodle crumbles.. people can’t spend.. money is a velocity object.. it is worthless unless it is moving.. put it in a drawer and it collects dust.. and stops moving.. add interest and it drys up.. so the federal reserve.. increasing interest to try and pay back what is costing a quarter million a second to those making ten bucks an hour.. will never work.. sure they get more interest but the velocity stalls.. and we all knows what happens if the train reaches the end of the track.. or a plane hits a mountain.. they made the mountain.. and the hourly wage earners are the plane..
        https://youtu.be/i4HEJuYqMpo
        before the print athon we had severe turbulence..
        https://youtu.be/zvEafYHoeFc
        those in power similar to those living on top of the hill didn’t have a clue.. mostly because they don’t live in the real world.. they live in the world of easy money.. now spending all these billions with no hope of ever recovering it.. can only send prices skyward.. the energy bill.. will increase a minimum of eight percent of our utility costs.. that doesn’t even consider the increased operating expenses of the energy suppliers.. so buckle up and enjoy the ride.. with the market does its freefall.. everyone .. even those that don’t see it coming will experience the tumble..

      • “Why is “deficit financing” NEVER a subject in public??”

        it draws up images of extreme fear.. because we all know what happens if you try to live on a credit card..

    • Yes they are..
      https://youtu.be/EU5tUY3W3WI
      the bad thing is.. they want to monetize it.. not willing to make the changes needed.. and loosing fifty acres a minute of prime forest and crop land.. gaining what is it a couple hundred a minute of births..
      If they were serious about making the changes.. my age old rant of solar towers and greenscaping co2 filters etc.. would be a priority instead of money.. a number.. we sold out survival of the human race for a number.. spend more numbers and resources to keep a war alive so that their questionable enterprises can maintain and flourish.. none of it makes any sense..

  11. Our electric bill for August was about 50% higher than our previous highest bill, which was for August 2019. Sure am proud we heat with wood. Using electric heat would kill the bank account.

  12. Good grief! I ordered a 1,000 gallon water tank back in early July. It arrived 30 days later without fittings. 30 days after that (this past Wednesday), the correct tank arrived, with fittings. The water tank is now installed at one of the high points of the property (622′ above sea level). The house is at 595′ so I expect to have the capability for running water as long as water is available. Now working on installing rainwater storage under the deck using multiple 275 gallon IBC totes. My better half totally jumped on board when I mentioned I had an old-fashined cast iron pitcher pump in storage that I was planning to incorporate into the project. She thinks it’d be cool using the pitcher pump when watering her plants. I’ll use a sump pump to top off the big tank from the IBC totes.

    What prompted this report is the fact I used some uni-strut to support the plumbing at the water tank. I purchased this uni-strut several years ago at $15 per 10′ stick. Unistrut is now selling for $35 a stick at Home Depot, and is also being sold at multiple retail outlets at $10 per foot. The pump was purchased for a similar planned project in 2009 (different house, different wife) for $24.99; it’s now available for $50+.

    FJB

  13. FWIW –

    In the early part of the Summer I fished a buzzard out of the North water tank I’ve been hauling water to. It had been marinating in there for no telling how long so this prompted me to start looking for some kind of safe chlorinating method to clean the water up. I can’t use copper sulfate because the tank is metal and on it’s last legs.

    I could have sworn that Clorox in the past was strictly sodium hypochlorite and nothing else but every bottle of laundry bleach I looked at also had sodium hydroxide which I figured eventually wouldn’t be good for the livestock’s digestive system. You have to read very carefully to find it. I think sodium hydroxide is a surfactant and the reason a solution of it bubbles even in a diluted state.

    I eventually found a product line at Wal-Mart called “Pool Essentials” that has a “Chlorinating Liquid” line but it never gave a complete breakdown of the ingredients. (Chlorox is also a product line of this company) I e-mailed the company in Canada and did get an answer in response to a request for the Safety Data Sheet, or whatever they call it in Canada. The text of the message said the ingredients are just sodium hypochlorite and water, nothing else, and this was backed up on the SDS so if you’re looking for some way of cleaning “free range” water some time in the future and you don’t have chlorinating pills this 10% bleach product is a good thing to have around. It’s much more potent than typical laundry products so mix accordingly. I would assume, also, that it is a seasonal product so it may disappear before too long. It does a good job of keeping the algae in the tanks down to a manageable level, too. If anyone wants the SDS I can send it to George and he can disseminate it or you can contact the company yourself.

    • “I could have sworn that Clorox in the past was strictly sodium hypochlorite and nothing else”

      Commercial bleach is made by bubbling chlorine gas through a 25% solution of sodium hydroxide. A chemical reaction takes place which produces sodium hypochlorite. The resulting solution is diluted with water to somewhere between 5 and 12.5% for sale as a commercial product. So the commercial products do contain sodium hydroxide.

      Although sodium hydroxide is not typically referred to as a surfactant, it does have good wetting properties and is the reason it can permeate the outer shell of the water borne pathogens we are trying to destroy.

      Remember to always treat these chemicals with respect and follow exact dilution and handling instructions. They can cause serious skin and eye damage in the concentrated form.

  14. Sorry george and all the good folk for my outbursts . Ain’t your fault. Don’t post much anymore had a gutfull . Making plans to go remote and be a recluse . Health’s good minds perfect it’s time. Respect to good Americans . Will never return but good luck

    • not being social has its plus’s.. it has its minuses to.. our household is sociable but not very social.. semi recluse..

    • It’s always seemed that part of Australia’s mystique has been reclusive life styles. Don’t know how “alone – alone” you can really be in the Outback there any more, especially since they, TPTB, tend to come looking for you now. I forget what they called it in Crocodile Dundee but when you go native send us a picture of your haunts.

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