Wall St. Casino Closed Friday – The Profit Ponder

OK, this may go off in the Peoplenomics direction, but even if you don’t play the stock market for the occasional cheeseburger, what happens over the next four days will be really interesting.

Predictable Pressers – Today’s Primer

On the surface, and we will run through these quickly, there are certain “news events” that are discounted by the market in advance.  Today we have:

GDP Just Reported

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”

Corporate Profits Announced

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $133.5 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $108.7 billion in the third quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $9.0 billion in the third quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $136.5 billion, compared with an increase of $90.8 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $8.9 billion, in contrast to an increase of $8.8 billion. In the fourth quarter, receipts decreased $20.1 billion, and payments decreased $11.2 billion.

Weekly Unemployment Data Rolls

Unfortunately, for those of us quietly “playing the tables” the current events are not what drive markets.  It’s all about “the Future” because that’s seen as the winds of change over in mahogany foxhole country among the Bone-Us without Basis players.

They will not only size up the “daily fin news” but also will have eyes on a busy Friday with their pet casinos take a (wholly unwarranted) Good Friday off.  It’s odd that people who mainly worship money take the day and yet us working stiffs, who once comprised “One Nation Under God” will be laboring on.  Handiwork of socialists in the Labor Movement?  I digress.

Friday is when the Big News (with the Casino Closed) offers:

  • International Trade data
  • Wholesale and Retail Inventory levels are reported.
  • Fed Chief Jerome Powell has a speaking gig at mid-day.
  • BUT the mega-deal du jour will be the inflation hints behind the release tomorrow of Personal Income and Expenditures (which used to be Expenses, but since everything is on credit…again, I digress).

Unlike Congress, the Fed reads things.

Weekend for War-Watching, Too

Worse, for the pondering profit prophets is the multiplicity of militaries, the conundrum of conflicts, and the depletions of depositories.  All under the heading “Killing people and breaking things.”

Leading stories to track:

As we line up the odds, hard to see the “stumble through” to the future that makes it to year-end unscathed, but that’s the nature of odds-making.

Field Position

If we were watching a sports betting operation – rather than the financial engineer’s spin on Casino design – we would be inspecting our personal mini versions of the Tote Boards. Here’s the “league view” of play:

While the Bears would love to see a downside reversal at the close today, our differential moving averages are not anywhere near the 12-day moving average which has – from time to time – seemed to offer a bit of support to sketchy markets:

But that’s also not the most important view today.  The real thing coming into focus is that in our “market heart monitor” view of things, we are in the financial analog to atrial fibrillation.

Yes, Markets Look “A-fib” to Us

If you haven’t, it’s really useful to read the entire entry on Wikipedia about the mechanics of Atrial Fibrillation.  Then, take a look at the chart posted by PeaBrainC who was kind enough to share it with the community:

From the Wikipedia discussion here, this is describing: Leads aVL and aVF of an electrocardiogram showing atrial fibrillation. There are irregular intervals between heart beats. No P waves are seen and there is an erratic baseline between QRS complexes. The heart rate is about 125 beats per minute.

“Which has what (the eff) to do with the markets?”

Ease on back on the BP, cow poke.  Just getting to that.  We seem – in markets – to be in some kind of analog to a-fib as shown in this view of one of our Peoplenomics aggregate oscillators:

As you can see, the market has gone into fast pulses, bounded ranges in terms of money “action.”  Our thinking is that this “Range Bound Stress Zone” might even persist for a while longer.

In a number of ways, this could also be describing a BFL (Big Fed Lie) and telling us what to expect.  We know, based on inflation behavior (so far) that the Fed’s rate hikes to date have not induced a slowdown in the economy.

To do that, what the Fed really needs to do is raise rates, not lower them.  But, as my consigliere blithely explained to me Wednesday “I happen to agree they should raise, but come on George!  This is an Election Year!  There’s no way on Earth they can raise.”

Which means – looking way down the tracks where the squiggles and wiggles converge this fall – that the Fed (and Buy’ed Em) are playing for time in here.  They need a “good crisis” to explain away the soaring public debt which is screaming higher and will top $35 trillion shortly.  We’re at $34,594,388,870,175.66 as of a couple of days back so about what, $600 billion to go?  Plus, or minus another round of Biden loan forgiveness and ships slamming into things?

That’s what we see coming if we’re to see the End of Retrograde, Start of Real Calamity that seems to be in the air now.  Biden is running a socialist-backed (destined to fail) next experiment in Modern Monetary Theory (Make it Up!) which has already failed in a) the Weimar, b) Zimbabwe, and c) Venezuela and…well, everywhere we’ve seen money just “made up.”

What’s more, while you’ve been dozing, the price of EVERYTHING is going higher.  Oil is around $82.50 (basis the WTI) as supplies are high – which means good demand.  Stocks keep going up, and even the metals are firm.  Silver has yet to retrace above $25, but we’re perfectly happy with putting on the masks and yelling “Hi! Ho! Gold!” which touched $2,234 overnight.

Even BTC was holding $70,614.  Still, with a nod to Sam Bankman-Fried sentencing today: FTX boss faces up to 110 years in prison for fraud charges | The Independent, we believe if there was one crook in crypto there are bound to be more.  Like a flea or mouse infestation, problems seldom come solo.

Around the Ranch: Ants and Plants

For us, greenhouse work looms over the Easter weekend.  Ham and eggs on the menu for a couple of days.  Trying to talk Elaine into (or is that out of) the bunny suit.

Lucky slow Joe, he’s getting on to the age where he can hide his own eggs for the Easter Egg Hunt.  Reminds me that rolling the bunny is far and away more fun than rolling eggs. But, to each their own.

We’ve found it easier to leave them in a box that says Eggland’s Best.  All 18 of ’em in a Jumbo box.

And that somewhat circuitously leads us to one of the best lessons of Life for the week.  How we are subliminally acculturated into our understanding of the world from childhood.

Unless you are a truly rare person, you seldom have (or make) occasion to go back over how your programming was installed by the (parent) factory.

Yet even a simple word – like the word Jumbo  used in the egg reference – has an origin story.

It dates back to a London Zoo and the early 1880s eventually leading to the traveling Big Top of one Phineas T. Barnum.  Off topic?  Naw. Not hardly and there is much to be learned from reading  Meet the Beast: Jumbo the Elephant (museumoflondon.org.uk).

Eggzellant introspection!  “Elaine, heat the chocolate!”

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

36 thoughts on “Wall St. Casino Closed Friday – The Profit Ponder”

    • Cap off prime rib premium oven roast on sale local grocer for (Canadian) $ 7.88 / lb. Just picked up some while Maundy Thursday shopping.
      Hope y’all a happy Easter weekend.
      Vic

  1. A disturbing chain if events yesterday.
    Made a trip to the Dr in the big city to survey damage done to the sore left elbow when I tried to lift 50lbs of sunflower seeds and now both shoulders are a little achy. Hurts to grip and lift heavy things like gas cans or big tubs of peanut butter with arms extended. Diana accompanied me and provided plenty of input, aka ratting me out for not wearing the prescribed brace and sling sometimes. Admonitions from the Doc and more tests coming up. On the way home Diana wants to stop at the big grocery store for a few things, which means 2 carts full at least. Now comes the disturbing part…..
    We were in line with one very full cart of supplies. The lady in front of us knew Diana from the bank and they were chatting. Since I was not a part of the confab I began unloading the cart careful to only use my right arm so not to get into anymore trouble. Midway through the checkout the clerk flipped on his light and yelled that his register is not working while at the same time another person was going down the line of checkouts telling them that the card readers were off line and they would only be able to take cash or check until they were back up. Immediately people began yelling and running to a ATM at the front of the store that apparently was not working either. I had a really bad feeling. I had cash so we paid and made a run to the truck. Diana was a little spooked and wouldn’t let go of my hand. Going out the door I looked back and I saw the same seen you see in almost every Zombie movie ever unfolding.
    Once we got loaded and back on the highway everything seemed to be in order so I thought the issue may have been confined to the store itself. Diana remarked how weird the whole event was. We found out later it was just at that store.
    About halfway home Diana said, “Where is the sling our supposed to be wearing?”. Took it off so I could protect you from the Zombies.

    Stay safe. 73

    • I didn’t watch movies for nigh on 20 years. In the last year, purchased $1.00 DVD’s and all I can say is hollyweird has devolved into a dump of ideas/morals/values/perversions/violence/drug training (use)/wokeness/pornography/you name it.

      The Zombie movies ARE the WORST. It is like programming of the mind. What’s UP?

      Your instincts are right on.

  2. “Corporate Profits”

    I’m not saying the corporate profit numbers cited above are rigged but corporate profit numbers can be manifested.

    I shop $WMT and can say there are very few if any $1.25 items. A manual can opener over there is $4.00. I don’t shop Dollar Tree.

    Yesterday Dollar Tree stated they are removing the cap on the $1.25 limit and raising the upper boundary to $7.00.

    Dollar Tree can now build more corporate profit into their offerings by raising the buy/sell ratios. But this also removes the Dollar Tree $1.25 limit so a $1.25 toothbrush can now be offered at $2.50 meaning corporate profits will double at Dollar Tree but value for the customer not so much.

    And now that Dollar Tree is moving to a $7.00 base will this mean $WMT will stop offering items below $7.00? If yes there corporate profits should go up too.

    I guess in the end the $7.00 bill is the new $1.25 bill so GDP can sky. Everything is great in the spreadsheet.

    • Years ago somewhere outside was a big clock showing how close we were toward the SHTF (whatever ;-)).

      What’s missing now is a running clock showing the ‘quantity of money’ available to the public, IMHO.

  3. MARTIN ARMSTRONG: The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore collapsed on March 26, 2024, at 01:28 EDT after being struck by a cargo ship owned by Brawner Builders Inc. The ship named the Dali was operated by Synergy Marine Group. This black swan event was extremely strange, catastrophic for the US supply chain, and certainly a black swan event. For the purpose of this post, I will refrain from speculation and stick to the facts at hands to explain how crucial this bridge was to the US.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/world-trade/francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-black-swan-event/

    • extremely strange ?? hmmm

      take a closer look at the terror attack in Moscow. Who owns the venue ? Ever heard of that Family ? Azeri’s – Good friends, and I mean GOOD friends, with the Orange Jesus.

      That my good citizen is what you call a CoWinkyDink.

      Hell, the q balls wont even tell ya bout those connections..I wonder WHY?

      .Mil Pysops – Its what 4 Breakfast, Lunch, Dinner and MidRats.

    • PS truss bridges are connected across the entire span by the truss structure. All that was needed was some torsion from the impact location to send the opposite side of the bridge out of its expansion joints and into the water. It is a tragic accident. In another life a cruise missle broke in two when dropped from about 60 ft in the air onto the pier. The Gunner [a maverick officer] laughing nervously pinching his khakis says to us “pinch yourself boys make sure youre still alive”. When lol at a crisis I take my cues from that day, its a coping skill. Folks at work dont know how to react to my cool cucumber composure during crises. I tell them how I shouldnt be alive right now, and that story. They immediately understand. Heroes like John Wayne get killed [use your head]. Losing your composure gets you killed [in any evolution]. BUT you homegamers know that already ;-)

    • Nostradamus Quatrain VIII-17
      The affluent suddenly cast down,
      By three brothers the world miserable and troubled,
      Marine city seized by enemies,
      Famine, fire, blood, pestilence, and all evils doubled.

      The attack on a “marine city” seems to be an event that leads to war.

      As I described in Chapter VII, “the marine city” may be connected to the terrorist incident at a port city that brings Henri Selin to the public’s attention.

      Nostradamus and The Third Age of Mars
      The Complete Prophecies of World War III
      G. A. Stewart, 2019, Page 536

      • Tom McClellan: Inflation numbers of all sorts have calmed down since the wild days of Covid shutdowns messing up the supply chains. But inflation numbers for at least the food category are about to see another surge upward.

        This shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) subindex for food and beverage compared to gold prices, and with the same 12 month lag time employed. These CPI data are reported with their own lag, but reflect what was happening as of the month for which each datum is recorded. The overall correlation with gold is not as tight as it is for wheat, but the timing of the up and down movements still generally matches up.

        Falling food prices (through Feb. 2024, the most recent available) reflect the drop in gold prices just over a year earlier. We are not yet seeing an upsurge in this measure of food inflation quite yet, in part because wheat and corn prices have fallen in the past 8 months. But another rise should be coming, assuming that this relationship continues to work as it has been working for the almost 50 years that gold has been freely traded in the U.S.

        http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan032924.html

  4. December 23, 2023 by George Ure
    Something odd has been swirling around Ure’s environment for 21 hours now involving Poland. No idea why, but here are the three oddities that have come along.

    https://urbansurvival.com/saturday-woo-woo

    “Poland has invoked a law passed in 2022, for Compulsory Military Service. The program begins tomorrow, (Good Friday) 29 March 2024.”

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/poland-invokes-compulsory-military-service-starting-tomorrow-good-friday

  5. HAL TURNER: Despite Russian President Putin’s televised declaration yesterday that Russia has no plans to engage NATO, HAL Belarus Troops are deploying by the thousands to their border area near Poland and Lithuania. German NATO Troops are also now deploying in Lithuania near that border area.

    Many people in Europe are now cautiously and quietly mentioning “an Easter Surprise”.

    Easter is this coming weekend . . .

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/unusual-german-nato-forces-deploying-in-lithuania-belarus-forces-massing-border-area-at-lithuania-and-poland

    • Orthodox Easter is still out a ways …. May 5th as I recall.

      Both Russia and Ukraine are Orthodox countries so that is THEIR Easter Date. Poland is Catholic, even had a Pope come from Poland, so for Poland Easter should be this weekend.

      Have no idea about the Baltic States but imagine that they are Orthodox too … since they have been part of Russia off and on for 200+ years.

    • Oh forgot to mention port of BLT is home to three MSC (military sealift command) ship and assets. Another Friday ponder…. I’ll take military logistics for $1000 Alex.

  6. In the news..,
    South Carolina just discovered a state bank account holding $1.8 billion dollars. This bank account, now under scrutiny by state and private accountants, has been accumulating funds over the past decade. But it who did it and why remains shrouded in mystery. To date the account has made over $200 million in interest. There are no signatures, nor departments linked to the account. [ But where did the money come from in the first place??]
    – Don’t you just love modern bookkeeping ???

    • “There are no signatures, nor departments linked to the account.”

      If that is so — why write about it? ;-(
      Too soon for an April 1. joke.

  7. Yo Playa,

    whats up with youse still dicking the dog that is Ure aggregate index ? Ure eyes that bad that you cant see the f-ing trend is Up and to the right – HIGHER ? Hello Houston! we got a big f-ing problem, we cant see Shit! Someone turn off the lights?

    Tree wurds 4 U – Crack Up Boom, its what FIAT does at the END. kerPOWell will keep things “flush” till the orange jesus takes back the WH..then start Raising again. Only raise during Donnies term, lower for the demons obongo and pedo-slo..you know The LOSERS .

    Have you seen GOLD ? OIL? BTC? All 3 recco’d here, but Not Recomended ever, as I dont give advice, just cold hard truth, and I dont care who it offends -tuff titties!

    I say grow a pair or step the F off . If you chose not to grow Vajayjay or a “pair” , then count on Ure getting knocked Off anyway.. or group up (self organizing collective) with some hardened lovers of Life. ? Who’s in Ure group?or group are you in on ? If not picking any of this up – suggest you go meet Ure neighbors, soonly.

    • Causual reference for anyone who’s read the book bankruptcy 1995. The author mentions a bunch of differenrt ways in which untapped gov money pools and land can be sold or monetized to pay off the debt and aviod the econ debt crisis. Billy with Robert Riech implemented every single suggestion[ what a boom leading to Y2K ’00 eh? ]. However the spending never got in line with receipts, zo , you have what we have here today. We have arrived at the authors second point. If his timing is off, the key warning to look out for in the future is that budgets used to be passed with new presidents and were good for 4 years. When continuing spending resolutions get passed every two years, then every year, then every 6 months, then every month, we are arrving at the event horizon. Things become unworkable when the budgets need to be passed on a weekly basis. We are pretty much going to get there this year.

      Got Blockchain? Not advice. Working on pivots as all world reserve currencies must do when sunset. lol

  8. “Everyone I know is having a real hard time.”
    – Not according the to latest Consumer Sentiment Report just release. It has hit 32 month high and the public is feeling much better about the economy.
    – The question here is: Do we believe this government report?

    • A radio report yesterday said Nebraska was currently so short of workers that a state agency was training people who had temporary residency (think illegal immigrants) in their native languages and as soon as their training was complete they expected all of them to be hired by manufacturing companies immediately even though they could not speak English.

      There truly is a LABOR SHORTAGE in much of the US at the moment. Those in backwater locations may not realize it because they don’t want to move to where the jobs are … but here locally (midwest city location) it certainly is true.

      Don’t want to leave a backwater area that has no jobs? If so don’t complain about the country having NO jobs. It has plenty of jobs, just not in areas where the people have low skill sets and low educational level. Those old line rote manufacturing jobs which used to be in those areas are NOT coming back … EVER. Manufacturing ROBOTS have taken over those jobs, I see it every time I am in a newer manufacturing plant.

    • “Do we believe this government report?”

      No.

      I trust no government report, and haven’t for many years.

      As long as I can get data, the legitimacy of which I have a reasonable amount of faith in, I’ll roll my own, and trust my own numbers. Once I can’t, I’ll stop playing.

  9. https://www.walmart.com/ip/Goldspatz-MAX-Spaetzle-Maker/5470000157?

    ok my grand daughter was asking about pancake soup..it’s just spaetzle in chicken soup broth..above is the spaetzel maker I have. when she was little she loved making pancake soup..
    wife found a new channel we have never watched..tastemade
    he made a pasta sauce out of bacon grease one can of tomato paste one onion and a cup of water 1 tsp red pepper.. ( I would add 1 tbsp of spaghetti seasoning )
    I took care of an A luster actor once that loved cooking.. one of his recipes is Alfredo sauce..
    garlic ( you choose I use more than most)minced fried in a stick of butter..
    add cream then start adding fresh grated parmesan cheese..
    ( I fry up onions to because I can and i love onions)
    you can find spaetzel recipes online.. easy to make the kids loved making it.. the kids loved making pasta over all..it always amazed me how much pasta you get from one cup if flour..

  10. re: “The Profit Ponder”
    feat: Chicago reapers

    Folks,
    One of the undercurrents to the Baltimore Bridge tragedy surrounds the six swept-away illegal immigrant road workers. Apparently their American employer would like the government to include a plaque to the lost workers when the bridge is rebuilt.

    Msm was interviewing the Latino workers’ advocacy group CASA (Central American Solidarity Association) of Maryland. It’s perplexing how an organization like that is permitted to traffick illegal immigrants for unskilled and day labour jobs. Their website “About” page reads like a guerilla vendetta against past US perceived misadventures in Central America.

    https://wearecasa.org/about/

    By coinkydoink, their Baltimore headquarters offices are sited in the refurbished (with public money?) Langley Park mansion originally built by the family of the International Harvester company. According to Wikipedia, a certain Mr. George Soros as well as the state-owned Venezuelan oil company were early donors to the CASA cause.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CASA_de_Maryland

  11. In total he could have received 110 years.., instead he got 25 in prison.
    .
    There is an awful lot of screaming and crying that justice has not been served.
    .
    I agree. The sentence should have been long enough to keep him in prison for the rest of his life.
    .
    Sam Bankman-Fried could be out in 8 to 10 years.

    • he will be going OUT the “backdoor” on weekend “leave” whenever he likes..just like assange. agencies look after their own..

      Like “Israel last” for the pys-oped q tards. wikileaks NEVER posted one iota regards israel, ever. The “illumed” are laughing their asses off at q tards- who still believe. They never saw the other side of 17..in KJV, koran or scrolls – all mathematical manipulation/working of numbers to get 17 – lead to passages about Child Sacrifice and burnt offerings(3books).

      Who was puffy’s daddy ? Where did he fly, and for whom. After military career, where did he set up shop ? Golden triangle code for burma? Wonder who controls burma..Same peeps who controled flow of Heroine into USA?

  12. re: non-secular bakers
    feat: not hot cross buns

    Folks,

    For those you know about to embark upon the Christian Easter weekend with Easter Bunny treats on the side, let them eat carrot cake!

    The Guardian of the Two Holy Mosques and stamp collectors will be delighted that today is a Canada Post first day of issue stamp for Eid al-Fitr, the Festival of Breaking the Fast. The stamp pictures the seasonal Eid sweet treat maamoul cookies along with their wooden molds. Canada Post advises the that recipes date back to ancient Egyptian and Mesopotamian times.

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