There is little economic news today, except to note that after a crappy Monday open, the early Futures were pointing to a partial recovery today. With early Dow futures up +328 and the S&P’s up +55, it will be some pain relief after losses of -971 and -124 Monday.
But we’re not out of the woods – yet.
In our Aggregate Index work, seems like the way is still open to a Second Depression.
Tomorrow is Bank Settlement Day which comes every other week. As always we will be alert to rumors. which so far have been floating about “someone big being in trouble” but never with enough specifics to crater markets.
Onm the other hand, a retest of the lower trend line in the chart above (right) could get…um…interesting. A lot will depend on whether the ADCC (attention-deficit commander in chief) can go in one direction long enough for the world to regain confidence. We recall the Pied Piper was successful at “leading the children away” with a single pass in one direction through town.
OK, so the town wasn’t the District of Confusion, but there are some historical legs:
The Pied Piper story originates from the German town of Hamelin (Hameln), Lower Saxony, and is tied to a historical event from around 1284. The earliest references appear in Hamelin’s town records and a stained-glass window in the town’s Market Church, dated around 1300, depicting a piper leading children away. The tale likely draws from a real incident, possibly involving a migration, plague, or recruitment for a military campaign, where many children or young people left or disappeared.
The story was later popularized in the 16th century through the Brothers Grimm’s fairy tale collection and earlier German folklore compilations. Chronicles like the Lüneburg Manuscript (c. 1440) also mention a piper leading 130 children out of Hamelin, never to return. Theories suggest the tale could reflect historical events like the Children’s Crusade (1212) or colonization efforts in Eastern Europe, but no definitive evidence pins it to one cause. The legend spread through oral tradition and literature, evolving into the familiar tale of a piper hired to rid Hamelin of rats, only to lead the town’s children away when unpaid.” (Pedo’s?)
The question Markets are asking is “Where are the children and will they have any money left to prop up this house of cards built on a totally debt-logged currency?”
Our favorite calculation is that in 1913, $10 would have bought a very nice dinner out for four people. Couple of drinks and so on. By 2024, this was up to costing $318.17 per the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator. But that doesn’t get us to current dinner pricing; there’s the matter of an addition 3.3 percent (all-items) inflation to be considered.
The real $10 dinner is up around $328 and change now.
And the U.S. Dollar has, therefore, retained only 3% of its purchasing power.
Which means what? Devil’s in the details:
To calculate the average annual inflation rate given a 97% decline in the purchasing power of the dollar from 1913 to 2025 (112 years), we can use the compound interest formula. A 97% decline means the dollar’s value is now 3% of its original value (0.03).
So, the average annual inflation rate is approximately 0.02475, or 2.475% per year.
Answer: The average annual inflation rate is approximately 2.48% (rounded to two decimal places).
Which means (gimme a hallelujah and put your credit card in the machine there…) that if you are NOT making about 2.5 percent on your money every year, you’re losing purchasing power.
And know who was the worst recent president when comes to taking care of Seniors? You work it out…
OK, put the wallet away. We have other fish to fry.
Barbarians at the Gate
Oh boy: all the gates, huh?
NY Times is selling the newest lefty-wing con: What Is ‘Dark Woke’: How Some Democrats Push Back Against Trump – The New York Times
Next gates where there’s a gathering being organized by media: Under Hegseth, Chaos Prevails at the Pentagon .
Then there’s the personnel issues with the Federal Reserve: Investors flee US assets as Trump attacks Fed’s Powell and calls for rate cuts.
Then there’s the little matter of giving public money to fat-cat schools with how much in their “trust funds?” Harvard sues Trump administration to stop freeze of more than $2 billion in grants : NPR Try to remember our view of NPR is that it’s “state media” and not controlled by Trump. Context of CPB Funding: The CPB was allocated $535 million in federal funding for fiscal year 2025, with about 25% ($133.75 million) directed to public radio.
Unable to connect the dots: Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Chicago leaders celebrate reductions in gun violence. Well, except they didn’t mention the crackdowns on illegals and more border focus….oh, but don’t mind us.
And the Barbarians go to nice restaurants: US Homeland Security Secretary’s purse stolen at Washington restaurant, say officials. “Same Secret Service detail as in Pennsylvania?” asked a reader.
Hype-o-Matic: Bitcoin ETFs Draw $381 Million in Inflows. Call that Piper dude.
Actually Worth Knowing
Win11 is going upscale – for the monies few: Microsoft is working on some seriously exciting Windows 11 improvements – but not everyone will get them.
Lost in Space Dept: NASA spacecraft zooms by strange asteroid, beams back images.
And check out: Alzheimer’s Might Start Shaping Your Brain in Your 20s, Study Shows. If it doesn’t, there’s always democrats and liberal media…
Around the Ranch: Elaine’s 82nd
Care to guess whose birthday?
Yep…didn’t even “doll up” for the photo – she looks like this every day (including the earrings). That’s the natural hair color, too.
Yes, unretouched, too. See, we are actually living that anti-aging longevity stuff in my book on topic. Somewhere on Amazon.
There are lots of things people can do to extend their lives, yet a surprising number of people don’t take advantage of all the improvements in medicine. There are three research “hot zones” that we are very keen on.
- GlyNAC – the combination of glycine and N-acetyl cysteine was something worked out by Baylor College of Medicine several years back. There is a paper on PubMed you ought to read: Supplementing Glycine and N-Acetylcysteine (GlyNAC) in Older Adults Improves Glutathione Deficiency, Oxidative Stress, Mitochondrial Dysfunction, Inflammation, Physical Function, and Aging Hallmarks: A Randomized Clinical Trial.
- Next is the TRIIM-X study. Fahy, et al did this one in 2019 and found telomeres could be extended (they are a marker of aging, right?). That study used a blend of the diabetic drug metformin, DHEA, and human growth hormone. Our OTC riff uses berberines, 5-HTP+melatonin, and liposomal low dose DHEA at night to achieve (we hope!) similar results. GlyNAC and TRIIM-X are both related to improving health and longevity, but in different ways. GlyNAC is a supplement that boosts the body’s production of the antioxidant glutathione, which can improve muscle strength, cognitive function, and overall health. TRIIM-X is a clinical trial focused on thymus regeneration, which is important for immune function and longevity And yes, NIR red light on the chest 17-minutes a day.
- Then NMN. Which you can read about here, but it may be hard to get hold of, since the “fooled and drugged” administration has gotten involved: NMN’s status is currently undergoing scrutiny by the FDA in the United States. While initially marketed as a dietary supplement, it is now classified as an investigational drug, meaning it cannot be legally sold as a supplement due to the drug preclusion clause. This is because NMN has been previously studied as a potential drug, and the FDA’s drug preclusion clause prevents ingredients studied as drugs from being marketed as supplements. (Red Yeast Rice fiasco with statins being replayed, eh?) Despite these restrictions in the US, NMN remains available in various other countries.” We advices Peoplenomics readers at the time and we stocked up on years worth. But it may be worth doing: Advancements in NMN biotherapy and research updates in the field of digestive system diseases gets into additional work ongoing.
On that, off to make us a (rare, high-sugar) breakfast. We seldom eat sugar, anymore. But today, I’m making us Bavarian creme pancakes and ham for breakfast.
Health food? Well, no, not exactly. But she’s going turning 82 once. And like a good hubby, I’m already getting preps out for the BIG ONE (which is just three years away). In fact, I’ve been putting hints on gas pumps all over the country. That’s what those E-85 stickers mean…..OK, or not…
Write when the sugar rush hits,
George@ure.net
Looks like a good family!
Few would guess 82.
Elaine is as beautiful as ever. George, you look younger than the last picture you posted of yourself. You both are definitely doing something right. Breakfast sounds devine!. Have a great Birthday. Elaine.
George,
Nonlinear Events. Coronary occlusions, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions are nonlinear events. The incipient valuation crash of 1929 was a 1807 36/87 of 90 year 90 year 2nd fractal nonlinear event. The incipient crash of 2025 will be a 1982 13/32 of 33 year 33year 2nd fractal nonlinear event. The crash will jar unemployment numbers as the US service based economy has a reverse wealth effect and tariffs only make matters worse. The final SPX/QQQ 13 day 4th fractal of the 3 Feb 2025 8/19/20/11 of 13 day fractal series is coming to an incipient nonlinear conclusion.
Awesome, and a wonderful day, Cheers Lady E !
yes sir, there’s E-85 stickers everywhere,, Ure been busy
Thanks for the picture of the beauty and the beast.
Happy birthday Elaine.
You are living proof – it’s only a number.
Amen
Turn around Tuesday indeed..Sell sell sell the Rip!
..always a good idea when afield Hunting the ever elusive Spring Gobblers.. to turn around and check Ure Six.
Happy Birthday to Lady E, cutie patootie doesn’t look a day over 60.
Time for turkey call tune ups – that is correct -practice makes better. Hang a sheet down Ure gun range and check Ure Shotgun Pattern as well – muy importante, unless of course Ure a truly skilled Hunter and Archery hunt with Gobbler Guillotines..nerk nerk gobble gobble-https://youtu.be/e1gSjcL8ZIE?
Opening Day- May 3rd- 1 bronze burd per license.
Last year Pennsyltucky hunters harvested 39k burds. This year will be harder as the state wide flock has grown and matured. Many more 3 year old and older burds, much harder to fool the wizened burds, no?
PAGC estimates the state wide flock population to be around 200K.
? Do you know the Gobble Wobble ? Its easy, even old white Guys can do it..
https://youtu.be/EhxVexWtE-4?
Happy birthday, E!
I’ve been taking DHEA since 1984-along with many other concoctions.
Nearing 75,my latest landlord thought that I was around 50.In the summertime,my hair resembles that of Troy Donahue.
These preventions work.
Which brand supplements do you use?
For basics I use Nature Made.
– Made in USA
– High-quality ingredients
– 3rd party tested
– BOGO at the local, regional big box making them cheaper than $AMZN
I’m migrating to Life Extension over Revenue by Science for some.
Specific brands for specific specialized stuff, as example:
HumanN SuperBeets Beet Root
NeoCell Collagen Tablets With Vitamin C and Biotin
Happy Birthday Elaine. George, you are a lucky man! Doing life right…
George,
Elaine has a beautiful face. Was she blonde before turning white? That is what happened to me. You do appear younger in your most recent photo.
Happy birthday to Lady E!
May the day be wonderful for you both.
What are you preparing in the kitchen for this special day?
Happy birthday E…
(“Grimm’s fairy tale collection and earlier German folklore compilations. Chronicles like the Lüneburg Manuscript (c. 1440) also mention a piper leading 130 children out of Hamelin,”)
there are some theories similar to the downfall of the Egyptian empire and the Mayan empire..Throughout history, there are stories and legends of several civilizations that have faced similar events and collapse due to climatic and economic instability, often compounded by social and political factors. “The Curse of Akkad” is an ancient poem that tells the story of the Akkadian Empire’s fall, attributing its demise to the goddess Inanna’s anger. Once a prosperous and powerful city, Akkad loses divine favor, leading to devastating consequences. The poem describes barren lands, widespread famine, and the complete desolation of the empire. It serves as a cautionary tale about the hubris of rulers and the catastrophic impact of losing harmony with the gods. A similar story for all else. take the story of the Levites tribe associated with moses. The Levites were set apart for religious duties, assisting the priests (descendants of Aaron, Moses’ brother) in the Tabernacle and later the Temple they were known as the temple keepers the banking and prominence . They were responsible for tasks like carrying the Ark of the Covenant, singing Psalms, and maintaining the sanctity of worship the financial balance between spiritual missions and material wealth. what basically brought the demise of the levites tribe of Israel was this very position they held as being the temple keepers. when economic and climatic situations split the tribe apart.
I see this happening to the present LDS community. they teach the right things.. but haven’t followed the original view of the reformation.
Joseph Smith’s restoration of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) was influenced by the religious landscape of his time, which included groups like the Puritans and Quakers.Early Mormon communities and Amish colonies share some similarities, particularly in their emphasis on faith, community, and self-reliance.
as time rolled by the church separated from the original concept. turning back to what the original levites tribes were. they are the temple keepers. last summer I got the slap of reality in getting some cucumbers. the colony..all the families were non stressed..kids playing each had purpose..no threats of loss no stress over economic situations. I went to a meeting and everyone in the meeting was stressed.. the messages of faith and morals are good..but.. the division is wider. in a similar situation of past histories in collapse of civilizations the temples built would be lost to be rediscovered again one day like the thousands of lost civilizations of the world.
the legends of old the fairytales created..one of my favorite revolves around a story I read years ago when I was eleven or twelve. there was a talk by one of the archeologists that discovered tuts tomb. dead men do tell tales.. there was another news story at the time the discovery of The process the woman behind the legends of sleeping beauty fame and snow white and the seven dwarfs..the seven knights buried with her to protect her and her carriage and horses..at that age it was an exciting tale and descovery