Trump’s “Glass of Water Problem”

(Shorter than normal this morning due to a cranky server… publishing in sections, so update after 8 AM Central for the whole thing)

Ever consider the “glass of water” problem?

You know…the one where people are “optimistic” if they look at a glass of water and exclaim “It’s half full!”  Or, going the other way, if pessimistic, theey look at the same glass and say “OMG, the glass is half empty!!

Well, that’s the problem Donald Trump has right now with the markets.

As you can see in our “only chart that matters” we are right on the ragged edge of having the whole stock market go from “Glass Half Full” to “Glass Half Empty.”  If that shift digs in, the forecast of 2500 on the S&P 500 will not be the “worst case” – we could slip into a global trade war of the kind we had back in the previous Depression…

Fortunately, there’s not much movement likely today.  Sure, we could slide a hundred, or more, on the Dow, but the real action will come later in the week.  For one, we have producer prices tomorrow.

The kind of news events that could “flip things” includes the Fed.  On the one hand, the Fed was sounding dovish a couple of weeks back, but now, the chance of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting seems to be back on the table.  That meeting is next week – gavels in Tuesday and the “Santa Hike”  — if there is to be one – would pop next Wednesday.

Trump’s also got problems in-house.  Nick Ayers, who was the chief of staff for Mike Pence, says he’s leaving at the end of the year. What used to be a Trump problem is now over in the Mike and Don pile because Ayers would have made for a very smooth Trump to Pence transition, should the democrat controlled House roll with impeachment.  Which, we notice, is really getting traction in the MSM press.

Note this data is through 12/03, so with the hype in the MSM is should be interesting to see how many “sheep” are driven to searches…

Then there’s Huawei and the matter of China – to us, it looks like a classic international standoff between “the factions” again, however.  Huawei CFO bail hearing to resume in Canada as Beijing steps up pressure.

On the one side, we see the global socialists – which includes the European Union (we saw how well that was going as in France this weekend, more than 135 were injured as 10,000 turned out to riot in support of lower taxes.  As usual, though, the rioters don’t seem to understand the concept of “free lunch.”  If you want a Nanny State, someone has to pick up the tab…

On the other side, the John Bolton, super hard-ass America was showing its stuff, too.,  Notable over the weekend, RT (Russia Today, on Galaxy 19 FTA circuits) was showing clips of Mike Pompeo talking about how America would again assert its global “leadership role” but that sounds like a threat if you’re one of the Global Socialists.

Which means, no kidding, Global Tensions are on the build – and that puts a tighter grip on the “glass of water.”  Which can work out one of three ways:

First, the public could say ‘Half full” a while longer and the markets could bounce.  Not likely, but that’s a chance…

Second, the public could “loose the faith” and roll with half empty in which case down we go to the 2500 level on the S&P.

The third choice is that the factions, fighting over the glass so much will simple break it.  That would leave both sides with bloody hands (war) but that’s what flash points like Syria, Ukraine, North Korea (and so forth) are all about.  Keep the bloody hands overseas and away from the centers of empire.

To sum it all up?  Not much changed over the weekend.  But that glass of water is sure looking like it’s in trouble.

In Other News…

Finally – a Russian collusion story?  Moldova election campaign starts, some fear Russia influence.

Against this background, Futures slide further as global growth fears mount but the Dow futures battled back to flat with a half hour to the open.

Global Warming continues to fade – not only with the extended sunspot cycle lower than expected but with passing events like today’s Mid-Atlantic snowstorm brings one more day of precipitation.

Moron the ‘morrow… gonna go hit and git software issues…



30 thoughts on “Trump’s “Glass of Water Problem””

  1. Leaping Lizards George!
    You don’t actually believe, (wish that it were true) that the ‘Sheep’ are waking up to the truth of modern life… that they have No Freedom, No Choice, No Vote (that counts) and are living in Indentured Servitude? I find that hard to believe..
    What influence do Americans have on the Wars that our government wage? What influence do we have on what our kids are taught in public schools? What influence do we have on immigration policy? Absolutely none, and pretending you do so only makes it worse.

    The stench coming off the the global ‘whole ball of wax’ is getting stronger, and no amount of ‘lime’ is going to mitigate it.
    *dont look over here dept. – NobleGrp going bankrupt, the deutsch bank commodity derivative counter party..

    • The sum of the disparate public and political (and economy and weather and climate et al) parts wax and wane to build the peaks and valleys of historical cycles. In their way, certainly, the public can awaken as they seem to have in France, but the result is built into the cycle. You will never reverse a cyclical imperative but you can influence. Trump can mitigate but he can’t stop the process. I’m not sure that his delaying of the inevitable won’t make the ultimate cycle crash much harder.

      Warhammer, I agree with you, but it is also true that the Boston Tea Party was a riot of sorts that gave us the American Revolution. Sadly the public is far less educated than it was then!

    • “the ‘Sheep’ are waking up to the truth of modern life… that they have No Freedom, No Choice, No Vote (that counts) and are living in Indentured Servitude?”

      I think the puppeteers are so much in control that it doesn’t make any difference if the “sheep” wake up or not.
      Almost daily you’ll see on almost any MSM channel news show some legislator thumbing their nose to the wants and needs of the people.
      There have been studies done by almost every college on the lopsidedness of whose interests are going to be met.

      Yet..even With the right in your face attitudes poor work efforts ( heck they basically laughed rand Paul’s read the bill act off the floor) even with all that what is the average tenure of those in office?
      Millions and millions are invested and spent to assure that those that will play the game for them will retain those positions and we like the good sheep we are keep voting them back in. Really why should they change.

  2. With due respect Mr. Ure, I am surprised that you refer to the protestors as rioters, which is what the MSM has been portraying them as. You seem to forget that one of the key issues that they are protesting against is the Green Tax to be introduced, which is essentially the carbon tax you have been talking about forever. Of course, the MSM has buried that bit but if you dig, you will find that as one of the key points of protest.

    • With all due respect, Mr(s) Anon, the frenzied crowd in France is burning, defacing and destroying public property and violently disrupting vital everyday city operations. Where I come from in ‘Merica, that is called rioting. Such actions are the hallmark of anarchists and their misguided affiliates, who have no answer for any nation’s problems except for rioting, which usually involves one or more forms of violence. If the French masses are trying to recreate the storming of the Bastille, they’d better have a solid plan of what they expect might rise from the ashes. Recall that after the Bastille fell in 1789, one chap named Napoleon Bonaparte rapidly rose to power in France. An estimated 5,000,000 ultimately died during the conduct of his vainglorious Napoleonic Wars.

      • Knowing someone who has lived and worked in France for several years, his take on the situation being. Yes, they are RIOTERS, destroyers of property etc. However, they are making a point, “making sure government is afraid of people, NOT people being afraid of government.” When government oversteps its bounds, how do people point that out? Stock answer being, use democratic institutions to air grievances. What if those institutions are co-opted? What other recourse is there? Have you noticed no one is looting stores or running off with TV’s. More to this than hooliganism!

        I don’t condone rioting, but backed into a corner, what options are there?

      • Warhammer, I agree with you regarding the rioting in France, though the French have been known for this behavior for a long time. I’d be most interested in your perspective regarding Meng Wanzhou and her interception and arrest in Canada. The arrest seems extraordinary and the Chinese people are not happy. Perhaps there’s more afoot than we realize – or not. This event gives me even more pause regarding international travel. The risks at ports of entry seem far greater than those within most countries, and this was Canada! She’s a VIP with backing from her own powerful government. What chance does an average citizen have, regardless of how clean he is?

      • Merry Christmas everyone!
        I’m a follower and rarely comment, but felt this is worthy. At a Christmas party on the weekend I had opportunity to talk with a Silicon Valley executive who spends much time in Europe, mostly Germany and France. His table manners are very French! He has talked with his contacts in France about the recent protests. On the outskirts of Paris and in the poorer areas of the country they said, people cannot afford food; the prices are too high. The people and their families are hungry! Shades of the French Revolution, when, if you read climate history, there were disastrous harvests at the time due to the Maunder Minimum.

      • That’s what gets attention and moves the government, for the government could’nt give a rats as* about public property for after all it built with public money (taxpayers money),what they have is just what we have, “Taxation without representation” and don’t even think for a moment that just because you run and pull that lever that its representation,its not and its probably coming here for as Buffet said its a class war and we are winning and so it is,and the time for pitchforks is coming soon and trust me they know it to….

      • I am in total agreement Warhammer.. all a riot does is create fear and give those that want to control a reason to go at it aggressively..
        I have said before if a group wants to make a change and get it done quickly.. then group together and send a snail mail letter stating in a non threatening manner the changes they would love to see implemented.. don’t just send it to their representatives but to each of the members of congress.. and do it daily split the group up into four each group sends one letter per day per member of congress.

        I have heard they won’t read them of course they won’t.. they only work a few weeks a year.. but.. fifty thousand letters a day going to the capital per representative is news.. it would create jobs.. to unload and to toss.. to haul etc.. anyone that has seen the traffic in DC will tell you that seven trucks per representative would shut that city down in a new York minute.. if it takes two hours for a farm boy to unload it would take ten city boys a day to unload.
        It doesn’t matter how many billions the puppeteers are donating to their cause thats news big news and it would have them burning and turning to get that settled ASAP and not one threatening gesture.. in fact it would create jobs.. get the message accross..
        unfortunately we in the usa just don’t care.. they can give us a one two three speech and we buy it.. we keep voting in the same old people election after election and then moan and groan because they have a shoddy work history..
        my thoughts are if we are stupid enough to keep voting them in then we deserve everything they give us..

      • I totally love anon’s point…lol lol lol lol gotta make a point…
        I can hear the conversations already…
        Hey Ray… We are going to riot and loot you’re neighborhood this week to prove a point to the legislature… You don’t mind if we smash all the windows in your house and wreck and burn your car do you..Earls market said go for it really show our point he said we could molest his wife and daughter to prove we really mean business.
        I can tell you If you was to riot in my neighborhood to show them just how much you wanted to see them make changes I’d totally understand…got to make a point here..

        Anarchy has never been good for any community. I watched a show where a section of a city was complaining on how far they had to travel to shop.. Yet they totally forgot that just a couple decades prior there was a major riot where all the shops were destroyed and looted and shop owners were even physically attached.. Then question why they didn’t decide to rebuild..

  3. Hmmmm , there is a person on glp that started a thread and claims he is in the Know. Lol yes, yes, how many thousands of threads have been started in that cesspool by people claiming to be in the know. Ha ha.

    This guy is different, in relations with the Elite bloodlines.

    He said, much of the stuff I have said over the years. Like Bitcoin is a beta test. The crypto currency that will be widely accepted has yet to be devolved. Bitcoin = AOL 56k dial-up. Definitely not Google, as of yet.

    He also said exactly what i said, what we are witnessing is a controlled demolition of the markets. Exactly what i said verbatium.

    Hmmmmmmm… too many coincidences.

    But he does claim he is afiliated with the Luciferian Bloodline Elite. “The REAL powers that be”

    I am for the most part, observing. I did post 5 posts. A little poke and prod and he moved.

    I am going to do an extra long meditation, this morning. Since im back working nights. Sorry i haven’t been around, to comment. I have been busy analyzing this fella and a few other things.

    Took a break last night and went to the Emerald Queen casino. Took them for $1250, put $250 back in and left in a hurry. Ha ha.

    I guess that is one of hobbies. Grambling. Intuitively selecting the right slot machine and the right bet amount.

    I will check back later.

    • Andy, is your intuition a teachable skill on any level, or is it simply a gift that you’ve learned to connect with and tap into? If the former, some of us would gladly know more. If not, your comments are still of great value. I’ll be getting back to reading George’s latest book once I have my paper for the imaging course finished and submitted. I’m wondering if there’s a connection between your social success and gambling.

      • Honestly Mike, i was a normal Christian Dude, who worked construction and went to church every Sunday and never questioned reality. I got an IT degee and went to work at a Casino, slot machine networks. I had never meditated before that or had any semblance of intuition.

        Then one day late in October of 2008. Something happened and i was “awaken” or “activated”. I began to notice alot of stuff and i became very very intuitive. I knew things i didnt know how i knew them. Words in books i never read i would quote verbatim and have no idea i was doing so. Etc. Etc.

        Thats about the time i began to meditate. I used to only pray. Prayet is the act of me talking to God and meditation is the act of me listening to God. And at first it seemed silly… but eventually i began to receive information about the future. I didnt know how to translate it all.. but i leared overtime. Because its kinda like learning a foreign language. One that had no book guide. Lol shortly afterwards i had this HUGE hunger to devour every spititual book i could find, every science, math and anything about the naturr of reality. Quite frankly it scared the sh!t out of me. Because i honeslty thought i was going insain. I had a few people help me through it and assure me I wasnt nuts.

        So, i dont know to be honest. It all just happened to me one day. I have had several NDE’s. And i did have a HUGE vision in my 9th one. But i had no ability like intuition until some 8 years later.

        Sorry i cant be any help. Sometimes i wish i didnt know things that are going to happen. I dont know what j did, think, say, or How any of this happend to me. And Nobody has ever been able to answer that question.

        If i could teach it? I would freely. Because it can be quite lonely.. at times. Besides here, and a few other places, i dont talk about it, or display it. Because it freaks people out. Although many times, i have helped alot of people, being at the right place at the exact time they needed help, in the real world. I always get. Joly crap, where did you come from? Thank God you did this, or that or that you were here. Etc. Etc. I always just shrug it off, oh yeah, thats cool, glad i was able to help. And i leave after that. Ya know?

        Anyways, hope that answers your question. I guess, i just woke up weird one day. And i dont know how it happened.

      • Andy,

        Thanks for your reply! Trust me – it was very helpful, and I can relate in some ways. I’ve had experiences where something/someone kept me alive when I had no right to be. I can think of two instances on a motorcycle and several in the air, at least. I have a spiritual connection that happened in my 30’s and I get what you’re talking about, though I couldn’t describe it any better than you did. I agree on meditation completely. It’s gotten to the point that I sometimes get answers just by thinking of a question, though not much in the areas I most care about. I’ve never understood the casino thing or enjoyed betting in them. I might try it some time just to grok more of what you and George are talking about.

        • Mike, all comes down to relationships are like trips to the casino. Sometimes you win…
          But when you do, be sure to ride the winner!

  4. Is this something you have studied?
    Peter Borish was second-in-command to Jones at Tudor Investment Corporation.[9] Jones said Borish anticipated the crash in 1987 because Borish had mapped the 1987 market against the market preceding the 1929 crash, and noted the similarity between the two markets.

    • You mean is this somethings this site has talked about since a) the decline of 2001-2003, or the 2008-2010 decline, or the present one? You must be new about here, lol…

  5. There is something bigger going on here in Washington than we know about, otherwise the good old USA is taking the path of South Africa. Some may say it’s Lucifer in charge because he is smarter than anyone in DC & is leading the money grubing leftists down the path of riun. It may be. Nothing is free & eventually you have to pay piper like in 1929.

    When the last of our freedoms our taken, then the USA will decend upon nations into a great war. History will back this position. Best estimate is a timeline of 100 to 150 years.

  6. An upbeat thought in a depressing time: Many great businesses have been started in depression times. Costs are lower IF you have a few dollars and are able to keep them. What can individuals do now to thrive when the economic world is falling apart? That’s the kind of question that can lead to actionable answers. Definitely sharpen sales and negotiating skills, planning skills, and learn many trades. Plan on working 16 hour days with a gracious smile. Buy tools and supplies when they’re really cheap. There’s a gotcha there though: At the beginning of an economic slide, there’s a discount, later the prices go way down, but if you wait too long there’s no product left to buy.

  7. “in France this weekend, more than 135 were injured as 10,000 turned out to riot”

    However, NOT one of significance!! ;-(

  8. Sorry, but this kind of thinking drives me nuts – is everything all or nothing? Black or white? Up or down? Why can’t you say that there is SOME water in the glass, and respond accordingly.

  9. The chart showing the frequency of instances of “impeachment” in google shows only a spike around the last media blitz/ ad push before the election. Wall to wall full court media political overload.

    Think about it, if they didn’t drive people crazy with the overload during this time, they would have had more success for the blue team. They burned everyone out months in advance, and it was 24-7 ads right through the election. My opinion is that the blue wave was ill served by the media bombardment. You can see the spike that shows they overplayed their hand, blew their wad in a couple weeks. It’s hard to stay that, uh, engorged, for so long.

  10. Impeachment :) ha .. those whom scream the loudest have more to hide .. while its noteworthy to here the screams of the death of the democrat party .. that’s all they have to offer .. while president Trump still gets things done ..

  11. Interesting artical George and a number of interesting comments,but I think a few should go back and listen or read JFK’s speech on what makes violence inevitable,and this is whats driving the affairs in France, and I’m sure those same affairs will drive the violence in this country for you can almost smell it coming on the breeze…

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