We have been delighted this morning (since 4 AM!) to have found an upcoming “area of agreement” between two very interesting wave counts. As you may know, we have a spreadsheet on the Peoplenomics.com subscriber site that we call the “brainamp.xls”
What this little gem does is it lets you put in any two points from a chart that looks like either a Wave 1 or an A Wave. Then it calculates the projected Wave 2 (or B), the 3 (or C) the 4 (or D) and the 5 (or E).
This morning’s delight?
(Continues below)
We are coming to a major area of agreement between a long-term wave count and a short-term count. So while we will remain long until our target levels are crossed, I don’t expect it will be too much longer.
This arriving point (which we’ve been anticipating) is one reason we have not been dancing and screaming at the top of our lungs that “The Top Is In.” Sure, there was a potential top in early August that we mentioned, several times in fact, but now we are coming to what we think will be the real deal.
This top will be driven not only by the lack of tax reform, the continuing Obamacare tax (If it ain’t optional, it’s a tax…just like auto insurance is another tax; a discussion for a Peoplenomics report…) but by the realization that the recovery from two-state’s worth of hurricanes ain’t gonna come cheap!
We have penciled in about 5 percent of GDP this next year. And in order to make ends meet, there are going to be several factors that could (in our humble view) run the current Trump Bump off a cliff.
The first is the changing of the guard at the Fed. It’s below the perception threshold of most people, but last Wednesday, Stanley Fisher announced his resignation as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve:
Stanley Fischer submitted his resignation Wednesday as Vice Chairman and as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective on or around October 13, 2017. He has been a member of the Board since May 28, 2014.
“Stan’s keen insights, grounded in a lifetime of exemplary scholarship and public service, contributed invaluably to our monetary policy deliberations. He represented the Board internationally with distinction and led our efforts to foster financial stability,” said Chair Janet L. Yellen. “I’m personally grateful for his friendship and his service. We will miss his wise counsel, good humor, and dry wit.”
Dr. Fischer, 73, was appointed to the Board by President Obama for an unexpired term ending January 31, 2020. His term as Vice Chairman expires on June 12, 2018. During his time on the Board, he served as chairman of the Board’s Committee on Financial Stability as well as the Committee on Economic and Financial Monitoring and Research. He represented the Board internationally including at the Financial Stability Board, the Bank for International Settlements, the Group of 20, the Group of Seven, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Before joining the Board, Dr. Fischer was governor of the Bank of Israel, from 2005 to 2013. He was vice chairman of Citigroup from February 2002 to April 2005. He served as first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund from September 1994 through August 2001. From January 1988 to August 1990, he was the chief economist of the World Bank. He was a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1977 to 1999 and associate professor from 1973 to 1977. Prior to joining the faculty at MIT, he was an assistant professor of economics and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Chicago.”
Now we are reading today that Janet Yellen had a breakfast meeting a while back with Ivanka Trump, leading to speculation she may be back for another term. But there had also be a lot of lobbying for Gary Cohn. But if you read the NY Times carefully (which can take a while, admittedly) you would know that Cohn’s on the ropes and no likely to get the Fed nod:
“The new chief of staff has tried to shield Gary D. Cohn, the chairman of the National Economic Council, from Mr. Trump’s continuing wrath since the former Goldman Sachs executive went public with his disgust at the president’s response to the deadly violence last month in Charlottesville, Va.“
Our Texas Outback in the Piney Woods analysis suggests that a misstep on the Fed appointment could have calamitous results. Maybe not by itself, but….
2. Problem #2 is Congress inability to get much of anything done. The republican party, which once stood for small central government, large personal freedom, and small taxes, has suffered a fatal collision with political correctness.
Professional problem stewards Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have managed to thwart Donald Trump’s reform plans by failing to pass tax reform, by failing to reform Obamacare, and by holding up his nominations, and by…well, you know the list.
The problem which will implode the economy? People out here in “fly-over country” are sick and tired of seeing the scum-sucker in office come home “to the district” from their junkets just long enough to say “I will fix it IF YOU REELECT ME!”
In today’s world, there’s enough political awakening and as one reader so aptly put in in one of the comment this morning “We Need a Crisis.” Granted, the author was talking about the idiots of Portland, Oregon, a fine example of how political correctness and too much dope results in urban collapse in slow motion….BUT it does scale nicely, since social diseases do seem to have a kind of “political load-balancing” scheme that any server farm would envy.
He won’t get a royalty but “We Need a Crisis” is now next to “Everything is a Business Model” in Ure’s Laws of How the World Really Operates, volume xiii.
3. The last puddle of poo has to do with how long the insurance industry can go before it has to start dumping assets. We know that insurance is complicated stuff, and we appreciate that our neighbor who’s an insurance adjuster now has several lifetimes of work stacked up, but eventually, someone will have to cut checks and dump assets to cover them.
On the Peoplenomics side, a week or so back, we ran the numbers of Katrina/Rita. That dark duo experienced a rising market for about 10-days after the impact.
However, what then followed was about a 5% market decline.
Now, you could argue there was no connection and that the decline was of a periodic, cyclical nature, and would have happened anyway. But notice what has happened to New Orleans? Still not fully recovered.
As the WaPo reports this morning: Irma leaves millions in the dark in Florida. Still, seems to us there are even more “in the dark” on Capitol Hill.
Meantime, on breaks from our comedic efforts, we will watch Disney stock on reports of Disney’s hurricane trouble. Did Donald duck? (Sorry, I was just being Goofy, I guess, garsh….)
Which financial tripwire will be the Trump wire?
Stay tuned. Hoover II may be about to materialize.
Be Happy!
The National Federation of Independent Business has just published their Small Business Optimism Index: “The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.6 points to 105.2, preserving the surge in optimism that started the day after the election..”
We had to scamper back to the long side of the market Monday…but with futures forecasting the Dow up 60 at the open, we should be back in the green shortly…
More reason to be delirious? CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquencies Remain Low in June.
This is What?
Time’s RSS feed is pointing to the “story” they have about “Why a $1,000 iPhone Isn’t as Crazy as It Sounds.”
Oh? That a story or an ad?
While we admit that Apple is very much a religion (dressed up in tech clothes), that’s OK, it’s still true that an Android has most of the feature set for a fraction of the price. Just don’t get into a discussion with an Apple owner about it. Most seem to have been through Apple Inquisitor training that teaches how to respond to the Great Unwashed, Unconverted, and Unrepentant.
One feature that may be interesting? What will augmented reality do on the new iPhones? Don’t like the reality that’s not augmented, eh?
Sanction Brazil!
While we have mindless babble going on about “climate change” there is a HUGE and easily actionable story in Brazil. If we’re going to “sanction Russia” what about other despotic governments?
Here’s a tip of the iceberg: AMAZON MASSACRE Gold miners slaughter 10 from remote tribe.
But there is so much more. The wholesale clearing of land, destruction of the rainforests, failure to contain a soaring birth rate…runaway corruption.
Once again, those phony “leaders” in Washington remain asleep and with a blind-eye. It leads us back to the ugliest truth of all: Everything is a Business Model. Even killing off those unable to defend themselves.
As Scientific American reported a while back “…most experts agree that we are losing upwards of 80,000 acres of tropical rainforest daily, and significantly degrading another 80,000 acres every day on top of that.”
I’m going to go puke now. I won’t buy products from Brazil. One wallet won’t change much…but maybe if three of four of us…
Also, Brazil hates us and has a cozy relation with Russia and China. BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Why according to some people everyone hates us on 60 Min. the other nite it was the Russians how do I know some over weight blowhard from the Pentagon came on and said so, now its Brazil as if they didn’t have good cause as the rest of South America does to hold our feet to the fire from the death squads and all the rest of the nasties we finance to disrupt their daily lives.But then again what do I know…..
http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/09/12/russian-smuggling-is-lifeline-to-north-korea/
On Mary Jane and it’s roll out in CO.
https://www.madinamerica.com/2017/09/unintended-consequences-colorado-social-experiment/
A friend of mine, who self-medicated his illness with the drug, once told me, “Marijuana just makes you stupid.” Assuming that’s true, how should we view avid users/advocates as decision makers and leaders in free society?
the majority of the people in this country are already so stupid that pot won’t affect it! And why do you have to stick your nose in other peoples business about what or how they eat, drink, or smoke anyway? What makes you think you know so much and are correct all the time. You make me laugh, W. Corey, good joke!
Wow. Article confirms a number of things I had suspicions about. We have been thinking about retiring to Colorado. May have to rethink that … hmmm …
And for some it works great:
http://www.salon.com/2017/04/30/veteran-says-medical-marijuana-controls-his-ptsd-symptoms-wants-cannabis-for-all-vets/
Marijuana…
I say legalize it.. regulate and tax it. People that wish to use it recreationally are anyway.
Study it make some of the life saving drugs that are just begging to be produced by this miracle plant. Then utilize it for the fifty thousand plus uses that it has.
List the pros and the cons and those that would be addicted to it are already addicted to other substances.
If you add the pros and cons the pros outweighs the cons many many times over.
FYI, I was pricing phones Friday. Samsumg Galaxy 8 pencils out to $960 over two years.
Obviously that will not be on my list of choices.
I just bought a Galaxy 5 for $8.00 from a guy on the street. It’s going to need about $23.00 of screen parts, but the rest of it works. I’ll either use it wifi only or look into whatever it costs to get cell service on it.
Why pay more than necessary? Any way I look at it, I win. I’ll get experience fixing the thing and perhaps succeed. If not, I still have the battery and other parts. It’s a really low cost education!
And supporting people who ‘boost’ stolen goods . . . don’t think much of you, ‘sir’!
160,000 acers a day? Seriously? In 5yrs. there would not be a tree of any kind left standing on the planet!
292,000,000 acres in 5 years.
1 mile = 640 acres
292,000,000/640= 456,250 miles
sq. root of 456,250 = a square 675.46 miles on each side.
We could put that in a corner of Texas.
Actually, Texas is 268,000 square miles so the deforestation is roughly double the size of Texas. Should check your math and facts. I still doubt it’s 80000 acres a day though. Maybe 8000.
I think you are missing the point of ‘insurance’ – it is a pure example of ‘everything is a business’. Insurance exists because of what humans value, and how much they are willing to ‘risk’ that value. Underwriters have calculated said risk, and in addition to charging premiums to insure ‘an average customer’, have calculated that the company will not lose capital in the long run, which can often be a very long time. That a company, in a run of disasters, loses money, while unfortunate for investors, is just ‘doing business’. If an insurance company can’t make money, well they aren’t very good . . . insurance should be ‘a gold mine’. (Lloyds of London – the first big company – had a brilliant idea!)
Agree on Brazil. In the book Lost City of Z, the author touches on the insanely destructive latex rubber boom of the early 20th century. Not much has changed, even since the early 1980s, when we were first mass-sensitized to rainforests. The true human costs of mechanized natural resource extraction should be appended to each product that uses those resources. For each product we buy, really. Otherwise ‘consumers’ are culpable.
bank home inspector told me last week he hasn’t been this busy putting delinquent payment notices on homes since the 2008 crash
PC vegan Soy Cult drives rainforest destruction, slash and burn, farm and abandon.
Can’t fix stupid.
Many quality brand name shoes are made in Brazil. Could be a start for a boycott. Unfortunately, they would end being made in China not the USA.
SPXL (S&P 500 3X BULL) has gone over the top of the upper Bollinger band. TQQQ (NASDAQ 100 3X BULL) has not. We may be near a short term high. I thought trees never grew to the sky. This market keeps disproving that saying.
I think you’re misplacing blame by pointing the finger at McConnell and Ryan. I’m not a fan of either or Trump.
Where is Trump’s plan that he submitted to congress for consideration? That’s normally the way it works. Why give him a pass?
From Trump’s contract with the American voters:
Within 100 days of 1/20 –
Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the
middle class. A middle-class family with two children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from seven to three, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35% to 15%, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate
money overseas can now be brought back at a 10% rate.
Don’t forget, most of the U.S. was covered in ancient forest when the Europeans arrived, except for areas controlled by tribes of pyros in the plains.
Our forefathers logged the forests, burned for farming and wiped out the native pops to make way for their civilization. No real effort here to restore that.
What do the Brazilian exploiters think of American opinions of their activities? Hypocrits…pfff
The top reproaches we are still climbing the incline of the roof how far well between now and November we are only one third of the way up on the incline
and yes for trillions of years everything has been a business model
And yes just like in Hitler’s time and in Russia’s time and in China’s time where they’ve killed millions of people they’re killing off all those or have killed off all those that have objected or they work on a dick Tri to the present Empire as it were but this is old game other parts of other galaxies do not have what we have here this is the dropping off point for the old Empire for people they don’t want the undesirables even if they’re talented geniuses Musical they don’t want those people so they drop them off here but Here recently we’ve had the domain Force which doesn’t work in the same way that the old Empire does as you know the old Empire is the Catholic Church Roman Empire the English and the United States which is there defense in system did the domain Force has more than one group of entities that gills planets a choice instead of doing like the United States does which is ran by the Draco repair Italian they just go out and make war with anybody and everybody and try to dominate the world which they have done through the money system and through using us as their military
One way realize there’s thousands of different species out there and there on the yin or Yang side like you say it’s a business model and it goes on and on and on and will never end because that’s the way it was created
so we have one force out there that wants to use everybody for their best potential
and then we have another Force out there who only want to control you and keep you in a Prison Planet they do not want you to advance they have no use for you
But they know they can’t actually get rid of you because you reincarnate to another body but in this part of the Galaxy you’re shocked and can’t remember who you are so the domain force is here to help us releases from this prison that were in and the old Empire which is all the people now that are in control want to keep that control
Enrico’s the old Empire believes and breaking everything down your money and keeping everything where you don’t know what’s going to happen next well after November everything is going to become stable because it’s going to fall it’s going to just wipe those old Empires out and the new domain Force just coming in I don’t know whether you asked for it or not but it’s coming
No paper All Digital
Then you say how’s that possible I mean you know it digital can be hacked yes it can be hacked and it also can be exposed so let’s say someone hacks and gets a million or a billion dollars from someplace or someone and then it’s detected so what it goes back to is you can’t get away with it once that is exposed because right now it’s not exposed it’s used against you in anybody that the old Empire Force wants to take down they use that against you just like my three computers from that have Windows in their from Bill Gates Microsoft they wiped it out that’s how much power they have but all that’s getting ready to change
Try dropping in some “periods” now and then to make your writing readable!!!!!
Thanks for responding
the reason one systems going out and another is coming in is :sublapsarianism….or generally,,,,,,,,,,,infralapsarianism.
But you ignore the supralapsarian view that some people are just “born damned.”
the key to spiritual growth once you have obtained a financial goal that gives you what you need to be free from continually thoughts of how to invest then you’re free to invest your time into your thoughts and not to be led like a pig with a nose ring that says you cannot stop the Everlasting urge to make more.
instead put your mind into peace not war because the more money+power and control you want the more war you will hire others to strike a trail and they will actually dance the dance of that trail that you have imagined like the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic .
The USSR anti-religious campaign of 1928 to 1941 where all clergy or nearly all and their Believers were shot and sent to labor camps..
May all beings be lovingly fulfilled .so be it
DOWN WITH THE OLD EMPIRE. Draco reptilian.
Do you ever wonder why the new Force which is called the Domain Force is called the Domain Force.???
To george,the 17:24 post covers the damned of both sides of the coin
Dear Mr. Ure,
The most fascinating disconnect of human behavior that I perceived from the recent havoc wrought by hurricane Irma reached me courtesy of a newspaper. A hereabouts local of northern climes was visiting acquaintances’ Miami abode in a 30+ storey tower according to the report. Apart from the power going out, all were safe. Where the thread of the story began unravelling for me is when it was noted that the lobby had been soiled with building manager permission by suite pets attending to calls of nature in said lobby. The visitor expressed surprise that residents had the fortitude to bring Fluffies and Rovers down even dozens of flights of stairs to complete their business. My surprise is at this glaring example of prisoner’s dilemma where the good of shared public space is discarded for individual convenience. It also, perish the thought, raises the question of what the pet owners were doing to answer their calls other than those of the phone. One wonders about long-term survivability in distressed urban settings.
John McAfee, yeah, THAT dirty old man, has been expounding for a while on the vulnerabilities of the iPhone, especially, and all phones in general. His favorite device in his talks has been “If you’ve ever been to a porn site on your phone…” which always gets a guy’s attention, don’t know about the women, then you’ve got a hidden downloader and back door on your phone that compromises it – and you. Probably it would be better said that “if you’ve ever downloaded a Free Ap…” you’re toast. A good interview he had recently in Romania is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVVjlYz-YeM. Apparently you need two phones. One for surfing and aps and another for serious business like banking. Even then… That’s why I do nothing on my phone other than calls, texting and photos to send through my computer. I’m told my next contract will require me to get Internet access, though. Oh bother…
I think McAfee’s idea behind the Sentinel product, find the hacker PLUS shut down their actions on your computer and network, is a great idea even if pretty late in coming to the market. It doesn’t seem to be far out of the production phase as the last I’d heard of it was from an April article that talks about its shortcomings and replacement of the head of the development team.
George, Dave here from Disney.we planned this vacation 6 months ago. We were going to cancel, but my son stationed at mcdill afb. Was not released until Friday. he had nowhere to go unless you consider being stuck on 75. North an exit strategy. So my wife and I flew down here as planned. They met us at Disney Port Orleans Riverside on Friday. The storm came thru on Friday night to early Saturday morning. The eye passed over the resort.tore up some trees which they cleaned up the media immediately the next day Disney also put up u.s. Coast Guard here at the resort and other d-mat teams so they could be used where needed to in the state people from South Florida also checked into Disney World Resorts if they can get reservations and stayed with their animals something to Disney never allows on Resort until Wednesday now the meal issue Disney was making up meals for everybody that was at the resort for $6 in that meal you got a full sub a water a cookie a protein bar and an apple that’s not price gouging , that’s at cost. I talked to one employee on Friday and they said they had 5000 guess that Disney animation and it made up already 15,000 meals for those people so let’s not jump the bandwagon on Slam and Disney too soon yes it is true they make a lot of money at the resorts on food but most people know that before the make reservations down here it’s not a shock this is Dave reporting from Magic Kingdom
Nice report,. Dave – thanks for keeping it real