We have been delighted this morning (since 4 AM!) to have found an upcoming “area of agreement” between two very interesting wave counts. As you may know, we have a spreadsheet on the Peoplenomics.com subscriber site that we call the “brainamp.xls”
What this little gem does is it lets you put in any two points from a chart that looks like either a Wave 1 or an A Wave. Then it calculates the projected Wave 2 (or B), the 3 (or C) the 4 (or D) and the 5 (or E).
This morning’s delight?
We are coming to a major area of agreement between a long-term wave count and a short-term count. So while we will remain long until our target levels are crossed, I don’t expect it will be too much longer.
This arriving point (which we’ve been anticipating) is one reason we have not been dancing and screaming at the top of our lungs that “The Top Is In.” Sure, there was a potential top in early August that we mentioned, several times in fact, but now we are coming to what we think will be the real deal.
This top will be driven not only by the lack of tax reform, the continuing Obamacare tax (If it ain’t optional, it’s a tax…just like auto insurance is another tax; a discussion for a Peoplenomics report…) but by the realization that the recovery from two-state’s worth of hurricanes ain’t gonna come cheap!
We have penciled in about 5 percent of GDP this next year. And in order to make ends meet, there are going to be several factors that could (in our humble view) run the current Trump Bump off a cliff.
The first is the changing of the guard at the Fed. It’s below the perception threshold of most people, but last Wednesday, Stanley Fisher announced his resignation as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve:
Stanley Fischer submitted his resignation Wednesday as Vice Chairman and as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective on or around October 13, 2017. He has been a member of the Board since May 28, 2014.
“Stan’s keen insights, grounded in a lifetime of exemplary scholarship and public service, contributed invaluably to our monetary policy deliberations. He represented the Board internationally with distinction and led our efforts to foster financial stability,” said Chair Janet L. Yellen. “I’m personally grateful for his friendship and his service. We will miss his wise counsel, good humor, and dry wit.”
Dr. Fischer, 73, was appointed to the Board by President Obama for an unexpired term ending January 31, 2020. His term as Vice Chairman expires on June 12, 2018. During his time on the Board, he served as chairman of the Board’s Committee on Financial Stability as well as the Committee on Economic and Financial Monitoring and Research. He represented the Board internationally including at the Financial Stability Board, the Bank for International Settlements, the Group of 20, the Group of Seven, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Before joining the Board, Dr. Fischer was governor of the Bank of Israel, from 2005 to 2013. He was vice chairman of Citigroup from February 2002 to April 2005. He served as first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund from September 1994 through August 2001. From January 1988 to August 1990, he was the chief economist of the World Bank. He was a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1977 to 1999 and associate professor from 1973 to 1977. Prior to joining the faculty at MIT, he was an assistant professor of economics and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Chicago.”
Now we are reading today that Janet Yellen had a breakfast meeting a while back with Ivanka Trump, leading to speculation she may be back for another term. But there had also be a lot of lobbying for Gary Cohn. But if you read the NY Times carefully (which can take a while, admittedly) you would know that Cohn’s on the ropes and no likely to get the Fed nod:
“The new chief of staff has tried to shield Gary D. Cohn, the chairman of the National Economic Council, from Mr. Trump’s continuing wrath since the former Goldman Sachs executive went public with his disgust at the president’s response to the deadly violence last month in Charlottesville, Va.“
Our Texas Outback in the Piney Woods analysis suggests that a misstep on the Fed appointment could have calamitous results. Maybe not by itself, but….
2. Problem #2 is Congress inability to get much of anything done. The republican party, which once stood for small central government, large personal freedom, and small taxes, has suffered a fatal collision with political correctness.
Professional problem stewards Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have managed to thwart Donald Trump’s reform plans by failing to pass tax reform, by failing to reform Obamacare, and by holding up his nominations, and by…well, you know the list.
The problem which will implode the economy? People out here in “fly-over country” are sick and tired of seeing the scum-sucker in office come home “to the district” from their junkets just long enough to say “I will fix it IF YOU REELECT ME!”
In today’s world, there’s enough political awakening and as one reader so aptly put in in one of the comment this morning “We Need a Crisis.” Granted, the author was talking about the idiots of Portland, Oregon, a fine example of how political correctness and too much dope results in urban collapse in slow motion….BUT it does scale nicely, since social diseases do seem to have a kind of “political load-balancing” scheme that any server farm would envy.
He won’t get a royalty but “We Need a Crisis” is now next to “Everything is a Business Model” in Ure’s Laws of How the World Really Operates, volume xiii.
3. The last puddle of poo has to do with how long the insurance industry can go before it has to start dumping assets. We know that insurance is complicated stuff, and we appreciate that our neighbor who’s an insurance adjuster now has several lifetimes of work stacked up, but eventually, someone will have to cut checks and dump assets to cover them.
On the Peoplenomics side, a week or so back, we ran the numbers of Katrina/Rita. That dark duo experienced a rising market for about 10-days after the impact.
However, what then followed was about a 5% market decline.
Now, you could argue there was no connection and that the decline was of a periodic, cyclical nature, and would have happened anyway. But notice what has happened to New Orleans? Still not fully recovered.
As the WaPo reports this morning: Irma leaves millions in the dark in Florida. Still, seems to us there are even more “in the dark” on Capitol Hill.
Meantime, on breaks from our comedic efforts, we will watch Disney stock on reports of Disney’s hurricane trouble. Did Donald duck? (Sorry, I was just being Goofy, I guess, garsh….)
Which financial tripwire will be the Trump wire?
Stay tuned. Hoover II may be about to materialize.
The National Federation of Independent Business has just published their Small Business Optimism Index: “The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.6 points to 105.2, preserving the surge in optimism that started the day after the election..”
We had to scamper back to the long side of the market Monday…but with futures forecasting the Dow up 60 at the open, we should be back in the green shortly…
More reason to be delirious? CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquencies Remain Low in June.
This is What?
Time’s RSS feed is pointing to the “story” they have about “Why a $1,000 iPhone Isn’t as Crazy as It Sounds.”
Oh? That a story or an ad?
While we admit that Apple is very much a religion (dressed up in tech clothes), that’s OK, it’s still true that an Android has most of the feature set for a fraction of the price. Just don’t get into a discussion with an Apple owner about it. Most seem to have been through Apple Inquisitor training that teaches how to respond to the Great Unwashed, Unconverted, and Unrepentant.
One feature that may be interesting? What will augmented reality do on the new iPhones? Don’t like the reality that’s not augmented, eh?
While we have mindless babble going on about “climate change” there is a HUGE and easily actionable story in Brazil. If we’re going to “sanction Russia” what about other despotic governments?
Here’s a tip of the iceberg: AMAZON MASSACRE Gold miners slaughter 10 from remote tribe.
But there is so much more. The wholesale clearing of land, destruction of the rainforests, failure to contain a soaring birth rate…runaway corruption.
Once again, those phony “leaders” in Washington remain asleep and with a blind-eye. It leads us back to the ugliest truth of all: Everything is a Business Model. Even killing off those unable to defend themselves.
As Scientific American reported a while back “…most experts agree that we are losing upwards of 80,000 acres of tropical rainforest daily, and significantly degrading another 80,000 acres every day on top of that.”
I’m going to go puke now. I won’t buy products from Brazil. One wallet won’t change much…but maybe if three of four of us…