I have made (yet another) pledge to myself to write shorter columns. “Save the juicy stuff for Peoplenomics subscribers,” I tell myself.
And yet, Peoplenomics is only a couple of days per week, so occasionally – like today – we will offer remarks that are “out in the clear.” Like my mentioning last week that the possible top of the Wave 2 bounce was in….
Let’s back up to the beginning, and talk about “news” – and what passes for it – these days…
The POINT of News Is?
Most of your friends, if you look closely at them, will reveal themselves to be pretty dumb, living lives of denial, and never really engaging with Life. Because that’s hard. Yet, a life uninspected, and brutally so, is a life not well-lived. You’ll miss a lot. Easy lives are boring.
Thing is, this “uninspected Life” phenomena is widespread. A cultural anthropologist would call it “cultural hypnosis.” That is, the herd is the herd and when anyone gets out of line, they are marginalized. Ousted.
Getting out of the herd is one of the smartest things you can do. Along the way, visiously tearing-into your “news” concepts and consumption, is a useful way to prevent backsliding. Road less traveled.
The simple facts are these:
- News only really “matters” when the story affects you. Personally.
- Same with the weather: It only “matters” when you’re going out in it, OR if its effects will impact your behavior through flood, power failures, and the like.
COVID-19, for example, is real.
In our view, it’s something that China’s responsible for because it didn’t come from Bakersfield. Yet, the Chinese-influenced U.S. media continues to position the Trump administration negatively based on misstatements and misdirections from present and past liberal-leaning, globalist-sympathetic embeds in the intelligence community and media.
For example, take the story headlined “Pompeo Ties Coronavirus to China Lab, Despite Spy Agencies’ Uncertainty.” The story fits our template titled “Pure Pandering.”
Two simple reasons for this: Fact #1: The mainstream press is prone to “conveniently forgetting” what Mike Pompeo did before becoming Secretary of State. You, of course, remember, right?
“He is a former United States Army officer and was Director of the Central Intelligence Agency from January 2017 until April 2018.
Pompeo was a member of the United States House of Representatives from 2011 to 2017, representing Kansas’s 4th congressional district. He was a Kansas representative on the Republican National Committee and member of the Italian American Congressional Delegation. Pompeo is also a member of the Tea Party movement within the Republican Party.”
Which, in Ure’s brutally-honest world – not some mainstream cub reporterwannabe’s – means Pompeo is “Ure kinda guy.” Military officer, Tea Party supporter, and former CIA Chief.
Fact #2: A lot of the fake news – really the socialist & Chinese juxta positioning of Donald Trump – comes from former Obama intel people who are getting their asses kicked in the General Michael Flynn case. If you missed it, head over and read how “Jim Jordan on Michael Flynn investigation: ‘FBI Was Out to Get the President…Including Going After a Three-Star General’.” Sure, Sara Carter’s site is a partisan, but do you want to argue the New York Times with their hotlines to ex-Obamites isn’t?
Oh, and in that story I referenced – citing “Spy Agencies – the plural? Well, there’s only been one reference to the ODNI’s offices – but that’s singular. The rest has been called “former intelligence officials” and that’s been spoonfed to the lazy press by mainly by ex-Obamanista’s – most of whom would be unemployed were they not so-called “experts” hired by the Mainstream Media. Which all makes sense to us because?
Everything’s a Business Model
America has overbuilt capacity to distribute information. Just like overbuilding any OTHER product’s manufacturing capacity, the prices come down. And in present day media the equivalent is the quality of journalism is coming down. The old saying “Talk is Cheap” has never been more true.
My point is: I don’t think the media is TRYING to sell America down the river. It’s just that it’s the RESULT of being so damnedably tied to excess capacity – which is why we arguably need a Depression.
Because not only do we have massive malinvestment in finance to the tune of over a quadrillion dollars of derivatives, but we also have “news” networks that have gone “mostly tabloid” in their story section, headlines, shamless self promotion, in order to profitably pander to gullible news consumers.
If you “eat” more than a half hour of news per day – including traffic reports – you’re likely “Another Useful Idiot.” Realize that once you begin to get “strong opinions” about anything – and I don’t care if it’s Trump, CV-19. the Economy, or the high-level pandering of “gender studies” (which 99.5% of people ican resolve with a 3-second personal plumbing check) – you’ve got symptoms of stupidty. The stronger you feel, the dumber you are.
Your treatment should begin with a “news cleanse and fast.”
Oh, and our “example story?” Well, if you read the whole thing you find at the bottom of the story “The post Pompeo Ties Coronavirus to China Lab, Despite Spy Agencies’ Uncertainty appeared first on New York Times.” And so, as in the days of Top-40 radio, the hits just keep on coming in the Great National Echo Chamber.
This particular story was news – and barely – for only a few seconds last Friday. And why it’s linked on Drudge Report this morning? Well, remember what I said: Too much capacity, not enough quality, right?
Even Fortune has been pressed into writing “Trump is pushing for a “conclusive” report linking COVID-19 to Wuhan lab.” Isn’t that his job? I mean seriously, WTF is everything a bash? Who are these partisans and dividers…who is pulling their strings? China? Soros? Globalist factions? You tell me…(OK, all the above…)
Amazingly little play being given to US intel thinks China stayed mum on virus early on to grab supplies.
Why had they expected it to be bad? With 13.78 times more officially reported cases than China, when do the numbers argue bioweapon?
Number matter. That’s what the China-lovers are trying to dodge because that is an act of war – or ultimate stupidity.
Like we said, this didn’t come from Bakersfield or Birmingham. If you’re not seeing bioweapon you need to GTFU and get some remedial math and sciences going.
What Matters? The Daily Numbers
In Ure’s world, we already have the week’s trading plan roughed out – though it’s always subject to change. But it’s numerically-based on numbers.
Dow futures were down 266, the S&P futures were down 24, and the S&P down 74.
But, since our Aggregate approach to markets argues that markets are all still loosely tied with intermarket arbitrage, we have to consider goings-on in Europe, as well: France and Germany are down 4% and the UK hasn’t come to the party – YET. Because in Asia, the Hang Seng was down overnight 4.15% and Japan was down 2.84%.
Taken as a whole, that means the US OUGHT to be down about 3%. Which means the Dow could fall during the day (or early tomorrow) as much as 700-points from Friday’s close. Which is when someone who writes too much may exit a short position.
A lot of this is based on my expectation that we will broadly continue to replay the start of the 1929 depression – another event marked by more capacity than demand. The green circle here tells me what to expect:
When I line up the parallels, it looks to me like we could have a down Monday, something of a “turnaround Tuesday” which from my standpoint looks like a possible re-entry to a short position...
Then we will likely get some of the worst jobs data in history. The ADP numbers will be out Wednesday, Challenger job cuts Thursday, and the federal confessional Friday.
I think the way the “Big Boys” will play this will be hard down today, then on tomorrow’s Trade data – possible not as bad as feared – we could rally. This would be the expected “buy the rumor” part. But then with ADP here comes three days of “sell the news.”
See how simple “the numbers” are? You can read up on the basics of Elliott wave theory on Wikipedia over here.
Were I to have another round of Life and were in my 30’s, I’d have spent much more time not only studying markets, but also Gann Angles and regression channels. But, I don’t, so we’ll just sit here in the woods, debt free, well prepped, and work on the garden and in the shop today.
Unlike city-slickers, out here in red-neck country, it really matters that it will be 87 today but only 78- with scattered storms tomorrow. Cool May with lots of rain. Believe me there’s nothing more relaxing than hearing the rain pattering on the green house roof while you’re planning another tray of seedlings….
Useless and Useful Dept.
Useful: Investing in recovery in hotels and rental cars? US airline stocks tumble after Buffett sells whole stakes is useful to consider. Pink slips coming for Boeing?
Useful (as it often is): the redeeming Biz section of the NY Times DealBook: Warren Buffett Isn’t Buying Anything. Well, if he’s not….
Useless: Elizabeth Warren tops Democrats’ wish list for VP. Poke-a-jokah…goes perfect with slow-Joe.
Useful: A meteor shower is lighting up the night sky on Cinco de Mayo. Flower (full) Moon comes May 7th and so perhaps while Elaine and I are out looking at the moot through E’s telescope, we can catch a few meteors.
Useless: Russia’s Biggest Coronavirus Hotspots. You weren’t going somewhere, were you?
Woo-Woo: The Tide Running Out
Had one of those wonderfully vivid dreams I get, every so often, last night.
In the dream I was near a marina, on a channel of water, and suddenly the water all began to run out. I mean like 20-feet deep water turned into wet sand as the waters rolled out. And I knew it was an Earthquake.
Location? Not real clear, kind of “northwesty” but west coast. Remember jumping into a car and trying to drive up a hill to high ground before the tusnami’s arrival. Not a planet-killer, or anything like that, but a good-sized tsunami.
The problem I was left pondering for this morning is whether this was an “actual” – because I had mild “earthquake tireds” Sunday which drove a 2-hour nap. Or, whether it was more metaphorical – as in the economy is running out.
Shouldn’t have long to wait to find out, though.
With Dow futures down 269 at click time, and Europe, except the UK down, we have to wonder how bad it will be for the Bulls as the week wears on… Down 3% this week is the hot office pool number.
Write when you get rich,