Today’s Market Won’t Matter

Investing in the stock market is a lot like flying an airplane. You fly for hours and hours – like on one of our transcons – and the scenery rolls by. Beautiful up in the Rockies, but boring as hell in flyover country.  But then?  Moments of extreme stress.  Like landing in a 28-knot crosswind at Hannibal, Missouri, (KHAE) for example.

Now hold that thought.  Bored then scared.  Trading this market has been similar.  A long way from the 2022 lows (that followed the Nov. 8, 2021 all-time market high). Like the boring part of a cross country flight.  Wave II’s can be pretty outsized.

However, the smooth part of the rally from October 12, 2022 looks, in many ways like it’s at the end of its rope.

If you inspect our Aggregate Index chart, right half, you will see there is a macro Wave II (1) up (comprises of and a, b, c, d, e), followed by a II (2) down and now (even with a big rally into the close today) we will effectively have filled the A<E requirement of Elliott wave counting, with the rally Wednesday that laid in an Aggregate close of 39,290.

Aggregate Index Elliott and Trend channels
The Wave II top just barely made it to bettering the small i in this view A further rally today and maybe to Fed Day next week Your guess is as good as mine

Next, let’s consider this wave structure in context.  On the Peoplenomics side (Master Index page where there’s 20+years of older reports) I cobbled up a spreadsheet several years back.  The idea was simple: If you knew the first wave of an Elliott move (up or down) you could estimate where things would lead over time.  Lots of time – like several years’ worth of time.

Which looks like this, in terms of where we go from here.

Aggregate Index targets since late 2022
The unfilled middle arrow left side points to where we are this week The length of Wave 1 down was 336 days The Wave II rally is 262 days along Maybe Wave III down into Spring 2024 then a rally into late summer next year Then all hell breaks loose around Election Time or shortly thereafter

There is nothing in provable rule sets that requires any specific target like the 80 percent retracement level for Wave II.  It could go up TO (but not over) 100 percent.  However, should Wave II be over, then as soon as the low of Wave 1 down is broken, we will be into Wave III down and that gets ugly as hell – halving of markets.

Which MAY be telling us Gobs about the Future.  Like a) Joe Biden and democrats will lose both the Senate and the Oval in 2024 if this count doesn’t change.  What’s more, Wave IV (the rally after the nosebleed decline) could last anywhere from a couple of months to over a year.  As you can see, since the 2022 lows, we have been rallying for 282 days, as of this morning!

Then the Global Shit blows up in 2025-2026 when China, Russia and the U.S. start “trading city-pairs.”  Won’t be pretty. Nor will it be a time to visit NYC, Moscow, or Beijing.

About the rest of today?  We could rally up a couple of hundred points today – and extend up to the top of the 90 percent retracement.  But then problems loom all over the place.

But like I said in the headline, looks to us like “Today Doesn’t Matter.”  Neither would another wave extension to Labor Day. X-wave as a Biden/Powell Hail Mary?  I don’t put nothing past no one these days.

July Spotting

Beginning – when we look at the Waves, that odds of this July being The Big One may not happen.  More likely, because of the structure of decline, is that we get a “little Bad July” and then a Big Bad July next year.

Now, there are several reasons for this view.  First is work of G.A. Stewart on The Age of Desolation website (and do buy his book which is infinitely more useful for long-term study). The problem is that we have “future visuals” (Stu’s work, Jessica Adams, and M. Zimmel to name three) of an American Civil War somewhere in here, and that becomes a welcome mat for the Global War (visions).

Logically, the most likely time for an AmRev2 would be around the time of our horrific elections in 2024. You can imagine a scenario where we slide into uncivil war and then (with the urban parts of big cities going wholly dysfunctional as famine comes along due to the economy and turmoil. Which would it make sense as a last gasp for the U.S. to city-pair trading nukes shortly thereafter?  Well, um, yeah….BUT…

The Little Bad July

After a manic high, a manic low is almost predictable.  We have Av 9 next week, but will it be the Big Bad July, or just a warmup action.

There’s a prayer that the market could MAYBE have up upside Monday. Bu7t we already have a strong hint Tuesday’s going to suck when the Case-Shiller housing report comes in: Robert Shiller says rise in US house prices may be coming to an end (cnbc.com). That sure reads like an 18-point font clue.

Fed decision comes next Wednesday.

The problem the Fed has is that the rally in the stock market has been largely driven by the falling value of the American dollar.  It takes more paper, when the paper is worth less to multiply out the same.

But cowering on higher rates, the dollar’s getting jammed and it’s just making the inflation worse.  The Fed’s other side of the bread is the Public Debt to the Penny which we anticipate crossing the $33-trillion levels shortly. From today’s present $32,569,914,975,378.20, it’s not that far off.

Let’s pencil this out, shall we?  What’s 5 percent interest on the debt? $1,628,495,748,768.91. We see elsewhere that ” Individual income taxes amounted to 2.63 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, whereas corporate income taxes totaled 425 billion U.S. dollars.”  We are still a little way from runaway compounding, but you can sketch what a $45 trillion and 10 percent rate does?  (End of the Financial World)

We are not the only ones staring at near-term future and getting worried: Even this long-time bull is worried about cracks in the tech-stock rally. – MarketWatch.

Now Let’s Talk War

The BIG data points for the week are Biden’s calling up some Individual Ready Reserves for deployment.

And in the Ukraine mess, the cluster bombs are due to land in Russian held areas from today. Next week, we expect Russia will move up to the “next thing in their inventory.”  Cluster munitions in Ukrainian hands, being deployed in field, White House says | Reuters.

Meantime, the Greek website War 24/7 is covering Russian response: Waterloo in Bakhmut: Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers die en masse in suicide missions in Klisivka – Tombstone… And as the “thiurd day of hell in Odessa bombs on, Revealing video: Russian Stand-off gliding weapons – The camera “catches” for the first time two FAB-500-M62 bombs with flight control and correction kit!

Elsewhere, we’re reading war making promises such as promising in this article not to use cluster bombs on Russian home soil.  Can you believe it?

Absurdium.

But So is Everything Else

Yeah – world’s as crazy as ever.  (You really need examples?  Ho boy… )

Let’s have the foxes look regulate the henhouse, shall we? Amazon, Google, Meta Microsoft agree to AI safety rules | Fortune. This is right up there with the democrooks in the Senate lecturing the Supreme Court on ethics, lol. We have the best government money can buy.

Ask Hunter, did you say? ‘Ultimate white privilege guy’ Hunter Biden may be hit with 10 criminal referrals: Comer (nypost.com) Gads.

Yes, we absolutely agree with DeSantis on this point: DeSantis to Newsmax: ‘Nobody Is Entitled,’ Trump Should Debate.  Hell yeah.  So should Joe Biden. We like to inspect our pied pipers. (And grifty codgers…)

It’s not just the heat – or the propane fire near the Phoenix airportit’s something else slowing super fine pitch semiconductor production in America. TSMC delays Arizona plant because of US skilled worker shortage (qz.com). I’ll have more in ShopTalk Sunday this weekend, but yeah, China’s kicking our ass on infrastructure.

ATR: Tourism Hereabouts

Seems like everyone around town – Palestine Texas – is talking about the new Hot Date on the calendar here: August 5th.  Day of the annual Neches Wilderness Race. Bring your own canoe.

Also if you’re in the area, Home | Texas State Railroad has train rides. Or for the grownups only? Wines in the Pines- Texas State Railroad (visitpalestine.com).

On that note, off to the never-ending list of stuff to do here. Peoplenomics tomorrow, ShopTalk Sunday…Yesterday’s column was….wait for it: Yesterday!

Don’t forget we are (I think) the only website on the net doing voicemail to .MP3 on the web as a Comment option.  Number to leave comments on is (903) 740-0596.  We try to fully utilize tech while we can…

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

40 thoughts on “Today’s Market Won’t Matter”

    • I used the Yahoo Fed Now link, below.

      It appears as if Americans will have a separate financial system and it’ll all be interlinked.

      Probably the internal/external ‘currency’, but we won’t use currency. Andc the banks will be consolidated into a One Bank.

      CBDC is here.

      “The system lets Americans pay for groceries instantly, businesses pay their suppliers, or people pay each other. It will be available 24 hours a day, every day of the year, with full access to funds immediately.

      FedNow isn’t offered directly to individuals and businesses, but it will serve as the basis of infrastructure for instant payments by linking banks. Transactions occur between bank accounts and enable funds to be transferred from a sender’s bank account to a receiver’s bank account immediately.”

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-launches-new-payments-system-that-lets-you-send-money-in-seconds-140305052.html

      • “Were sorry – Ure social credit score is below threshold for this particular application. Access Denied.” Please try again at a later date.” – Govmint

        -particular Model
        -articular Apartment Complex/Neighborhood
        -particular Show/Event..

        same ole prison – with new mgt system. All run by AI

        – just like those frequency “deathtraps”

        – those Irresistable Warm Glowing Lights, “you have more work to do” – bwahahahaa https://youtu.be/84Tq-eAJIk4

      • …receive funds instantly…

        Cant wait to see what lame-ass bullshit excuses the banks will use now to float on your money by not posting to your account right away.

        ( Im very excited that our credit card processing puts the money in our account next business day. I feel fortunate that we get OUR funds so soon ! )

        With the ever revolving amount of money , that float is an enormous perpetual daily amount…for FREE !

  1. Good column today George, reads like a Subscriber paid one actually … If/when markets correct I’d be surprised (but nothing new there) … as the US Fed and Treasury keep working together to keep the money flowing, regardless what they say, its what’s going on behind the curtain. Markets fool the most, most of the time. Keep up the good work.

  2. Fraud
    Shyster
    Carpetbagger
    Back Stabber
    Traitor ?
    https://youtu.be/Hbu7Rk97S6A
    Who is musk ? Obviously, nothing like he “appears” to be in public..just another dopeshow on long road to the new “ahrimanic” dimension.. a tweener if you will.

    Its no wonder anymore, the musky musk who smells musky has so many big fans around these parts.

    Definitely No BTC 4 musk fan club – the man crush is sickening..

      • Who da thunk it ?

        A genetically targeted Bioweapon ?

        Unleashed on World population – here is some proof from the fine folks who funded this nightmare –

        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32664879/

        Nobody really believes they only produced one such batch of engineered nasties. Speaking of engineered nasties – anyone seen sorass In Person in last couple of months..

        cue The Who – We Wont Get Fooled Again – https://youtu.be/RDVdomcsjBA

        • Kinda inconvenient for that to be on PubMed given the libs haven’t gotten RFK jr smeared enough to put himm down,. yet. They’re still playing the racist and antisemitic cards. But in front of enough stupid and wokees? Seems to work a bit.

    • Elon Musk is a human being(or perhaps a Martian), just like the rest of us. The link you showed is MSNBC, and whoever that announcer is has a very focused agenda – to demean and disparage the new Twitter and its owner. He may have valid points, but he’s certainly not telling the entire story.

      I find all of these “social” sites to be rather stupid, and I’ll not register for any of them, especially if they require a phone number. That ties your expressed thoughts directly to you as an individual – a data miner’s wet dream! Elon is an engineer/physicist/businessman, and he may be somewhat compromised. That’s certainly necessary to get stuff done within the framework of most governmental structures, and he’s absolutely dependent on many licenses and permits to run most of his companies. He also has major contracts with governments, so he’s probably doing the best he can. As individuals, it’s incumbent upon ourselves to think for ourselves – otherwise we’re wasting one of God’s greatest gifts – our brains!

      I trust that Elon is doing far better than most(including me) to advance the state of the art in his chosen disciplines, and is certainly part of the world’s best chance to create an off-earth colony. If people refuse to use their brains, they’ll get the government(such as it is) and corruption that they deserve.

    • BCN, you, of all people should know that Elon Musk is Elon Musk and everyone in media plays fast & loose with the truth, to push their agenda. Ari Melber especially, is known for his glib manipulations of reality to support his neocommunist personal narrative (in short, he’s a communist propagandist.) Every pundit is going to praise or pan Musk, via their platform, depending upon what he has done for their particular pet project on the previous day.

      In truth, Musk is “just Elon,” which is likely nothing like anyone in media portrays him – certainly not Melber…

  3. TGIF.

    I’ve never officially piloted an aircraft in a documentable way because I don’t have a license and that would be illegal and if I did I definitely would not have done it at night. BUT, if I had I would say piloting an aircraft is akin to being in combat. Long periods of boredom broken up by short intervals of mortal terror.

    I’ve been only mildly interested in the latest palace intrigue with the current puppet in the Oval and his progeny. Them being corrupt falls somewhere in the middle of the category of ‘No Sh$t Sherlock.’ Prosecuting corruption in the District of Corruption is like writing speeding tickets at the Daytona 500. As even the mildly astute is aware, there really is a two-tiered justice system and certain groups DO have privilege, but when you drill down to the core of the issue it’s not the groups that the monetizers would have you believe.

    Here’s the real truth: The only two colors that ever have any real privilege are the same ones that have always had and always shall be privileged: Pink and Green.

    Have a good weekend.

  4. I seldom remember my dreams, but this morning I’m shaking off a nightmare. Virology labs worldwide had been shut down and sterilized. Tony Fauci had been executed for crimes against humanity. I was inspecting labs for proper shutdown and to ensure no viral material was stored, when I encountered a living clone of Fauci at a lab, and we had to kill him. When word went out that this happened, we went to other labs and also encountered other clones of Fauci and had to kill them. It was like playing ‘Whack-A-Mole’ where he kept popping up. Some nefarious alien force was cloning Fauci and placing him back into virology labs to restart them in an alien attempt to take over the world. Gruesome and disturbing. I woke up early and had to write this out while I still remembered it.
    You wanted to know about any ‘foreshock’ dreams appearing before a big event. This was as bad as I have experienced in recent history. Maybe now I can go back to bed.

  5. How is the AmRev going to team?

    Transfer payment Vs non transfer payment.
    Debtor Vs non-debtor.
    Kennedy Republicans Vs Trump Democrats.

    We see the Teamsters wanting more after they were bailed out 12/2023. Are they the good girls or the bad girls?

    A couple of years ago General Motors got a bunch of Fed-Bux to build a Ultium Cell battery factory out by Lansing, MI. Toyota has solid state batteries. Construction is still on going at the GM battery factories because of the ‘good jobs’. Are their any enemies in that?

  6. Back-In-The-Day., I saw a lot of explosions – participated in quite few also. Causing mayhem and breaking other people’s shit was part of my job. I got pretty good at it. Good to the point where I was asked to help out with ‘other’ people’s problems and go in and cause a little mayhem and break their stuff.
    – Hang in there.., I’m getting to it…,
    In my doldrums last week I pulled maps and populations of four major cities. Beijing, London, Moscow and New York City. And with the help of the internet., what would be the cost of each city receiving a 20 mega ton nuclear explosion? Beijing is huge, geographically – so two 10’s would work much better. Same with L.A. ., but California was not on the menu., this time.
    After a couple of days of crunching – the numbers were horrific. I believe that more people would die in the 60 days after the event – then from the event itself. And the numbers of dead and wounded is incredible. And a world wide “tit-for-tat., trade ya for that”., city exchange would devastate every country on the planet. There would be no more international trade., there would be no more shipping.., there would be no more supply chains.., there would be no more international finance. What you currently have [ as a country ] is what you’ve got., for a long time to come.
    As Ian Fleming said: “I believe in revenge.” ., and I have acted in that manner, several times, with devastating effect.,[Karma is a pissed-off Army Ranger with experience and an attitude.] but I can not conceive of being the person who presses “that” button. It is beyond the scope of my acceptance and understanding.
    So, as we sit here and causally banter back and forth over “city exchanges”, take a moment and try to realize what that actually will entail., what it really means. And though you probably won’t be in the radius., you will, absolutely, be severely impacted.
    Though we have no control, or say, let us hope they can find another path.

    • While I pray for the same thing (peaceful outcome) when Russia has – a couple of times – indicated a willingness to talk and about a division of Ukraine, if memory serves, the West/NATO had no interest in peaceful or negotiated endings.
      The financial system is like to Blow and the ruling class need a scapegoat and some pretext to seize guns, savings, and accrete more power. They need a scapegoat. And when the conventional inventory is depleted, then will come the unacceptable tools.
      Plus, as my map showed, Wagner may square off with Poland while Russia moves west and north through Muldova in coming weeks: “On the border with Poland, Wagner according to the Surovikin Plan: Face to face Russian and Polish soldiers – Moving east Armed Formations” https://warnews247.gr/sta-synora-me-polonia-i-vagkner-symfona-me-to-schedio-sourovikin-prosopo-me-prosopo-rosoi-kai-polonoi-stratiotes-i-varsovia-metakinei-enoplous-schimatismous/

    • Puts a whole meaning to the concept of being prepared doesn’t it d’Lynn? Who the hell would want to live in this world in a bunker with a few cases of sardines? Prayer seems like the best preparation to me.

    • Agreed, it is doubtful any of the top-tier regimes will be the ones to flush the world down the shitter but more likely some of the minor leaguers. I see after maybe 60 days, or possibly sooner after an exchange this country descending into something I hoped to never see again. Don’t want to do that again but I know what will need to happen to keep my family safe.
      Guess that may be why I’m the only one left. Everything happens for a reason huh. No sleeping tonight probably.

      Stay safe,

  7. Many people are drawing parallels between the Ukrainian war and WW1, I know I have. The over 1000 mile long line of contact, the use of new aeronautical technology, planes in WW1 and drones now, the impact of rail transportation and the last mile problem all are issues in this war. But recently I thought of another perhaps better analogy, the American Civil War.

    Here are some parallels: the high number of deaths of general officers, the firing of general officers, the frustration of the soldiers at the slow movement of the battle lines, the reliance on rail to move everything, and the use of new technology, and the reliance on very old technology, artillery, to do the bulk of the fighting.

    Despite the frustration of soldiers when you look at it this war is actually going faster than the Civil War. Russia has spent the last year building up its Army and training people. Putin’s Empire of Lies speech is his Gettysburg Address. The Battle of the Mariupol Steel Mill was Gettysburg and the Battle of Bakmuht was Vicksburg. This war is also turning into a war of attrition. Unfortunately Ukraine is a smaller country and has a much smaller population than Russia.

    All analogies have weaknesses and can be picked apart. Despite media claims that a Ukrainian victory is eminent I don’t see a lot of hope for an easy Ukrainian victory any time soon.

  8. Hello all,

    Best not to watch Ms. Mkt. too closely today with $2.4 Trillion rolling off / rolling over for OpEx (though my guess is some made their move yesterday creating the high vol. tech storm. Stay tuned, shall we?

    The Nasdaq is also doing a rebalance before the open Monday ostensibly to soften status (7) big techs being >50% of the Nasdaq 100. Formula remains a national security secret. Pls stand by.

    So, Monday to Wednesday 2pm EDT (when the FedHead JayPow dishes out rates) should be entertaining. Ya got the over or under? I’ll make a call at 1:59p sharp but until then am sworn to secrecy.

    There’s more (there always is) but today I started a Sunfish epoxy repair project for the neighbor lad and must add coats 2 through (?) after each layer kicks off but while still green. Mr. Wizard time here ATL.

    Sidebar, the 12 YO has 4-5 guest kids visiting. It’s mind-numbing how many questions the lot of them can pose. We wonders Precious … do they listen to the answers? Cocktail time arrives early today.

    Best Regards,
    Egor

  9. Re: “Today Doesn’t Matter”

    Folks,

    Thanks to DJ George’s intro for today of Barbie’s ‘mystery of the missing Chinese foreign minister’ with that lovely Godfather rendition of “Sicilian Pastorale”.

    After a black-clad Ms. Yellen met the Chinese Premier, followed by the American Climate Czar meeting his Chinese equal in Beijing, diplomatic royalty arrived in town. President Xi was available yesterday.

    The BBC pictures Mr. Xi who “who smiled and spoke with affection as he addressed Mr. Kissinger on Thursday”. The centenarian was received at the “intimate” Diaoyutai State Guesthouse whose red-carpeted meeting space backdrop was graced by a colorful winter scene. There was no sign of teleprompter or hand-held cue cards on display.

    As for today, one looks forward to reading a transcript of remarks from the Roosevelt Room by the American President concerning artificial intelligence.

    • ‘mystery of the missing Chinese foreign minister’

      I have my own mystery in that vein. We went to our favorite Chinese restaurant yesterday for the first time in a couple of months and found NO Chinese staff. They were all Latino, from the wait staff to the cashier. Never saw the cook, so he/she may have still been Chinese. The food was good as always, but I miss the nice Chinese ladies who used to wait on us.

  10. Shawn Ryan has now published all three of his interviews with people who have given sworn testimony before Congressional members about UFO and other-worldly tech that governmental and quasi-governmental entities are in possession of and have fine tuned to their uses many years ago.

    You can pick out the interviews of Eric Hecker, D. C. Long and Michael Herrera here: https://www.youtube.com/@ShawnRyanShowOfficial/videos

    As such the thing that keeps going through my mind is that these entities constitute the break-away civilization that is simply allowing our World to devolve into a convoluted heap that is the detritus of a failed complex society. Everything we talk about here is the various stages of this devolution that is being both allowed to happen, encouraged to happen and hastened to happen on a very short time span.

  11. today is 4 weeks since hand surgery. today the third cast was removed and I got a crane like splint. I can see the palm of my hand!! lovely. it will take some work to get my fingers working together. the ring finger’s second joint doesn’t want to open independently but all 4 replaced joints are able to move a little. I am quite hopeful for good hand function.

    I didn’t do well on Perkaset so I alternatived 3 ibuprofen every 4 to 5 hours with 2 extra strength tylenol. I’m now only taking 2 ibuprofen a day but I might up the dose now that I started pt. My rheumatoid arthritis drug still seems to be working but multiple joints hurt because I am over using my left hand.

    this surgery has been less painful but more difficult than I expected. I don’t like needing so much help for so many things. I am very grateful for family and friends for their help. I think in a couple of months I will be glad I had this done. oh, the surgeon lied when he said I could drive at 4 weeks. the physical therapist said maybe in 4 more weeks.

    • Thanks for the update Eleanor. That is certainly major surgery and we wish you well. George is right. Be religious about the PhysioTherapy. My hip surgery friends that did that are 100%. The ones that didn’t, regret it. It makes a huge difference. I also suggest you look into Collagen supplementation. It has worked wonders for my hands.

    • The Ibuprofen/Tylenol combo works very well. I was given that in the ER for my first diverticulitis episode. The combo is synergistic for sharp pain & dull ache together, they told me, and it has helped keep my arthritic hip joint under control and usable yet. Keep up the P/T!

    • I’m glad things are working out!

      Percocet is Oxycontin and Tylenol.

      Try taking an aspirin or Excedrin (or Excedrin clone: Anacin, Midol, Vanquish, etc. = 250mg aspirin, 250mg acetaminophen, 65mg caffeine) with (or even without) an ibuprofen, then take one half of the oxy pill 40-45 minutes later.

      The NSAIDs provide an “onramp,” which makes the narcotic work much better and faster as an analgesic, with much less of a “high.” Synthetic codeine has no analgesic effect on me, but gets me stoned. This technique all but eliminates the buzz, but shuts down a good bit of the pain…

  12. I learned more about long term pain management in fifteen minutes from a man who had severely damaged his spine in an accident in his early twenties, and had spent most of his adult life living with progressive arthritis, than from a lifetime of doctors and talking heads.
    First, if you wake up hurting, then you are still alive.
    I’m not going to give you advice on medication and supplements. If you know someone who has experience with dealing with pain without narcotics, then seek their counsel. I will say that magnesium can be beneficial after surgery. Good luck with recovery and PT.

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