Tiny Bouncer? Weighing Out Trade, Creeping Madness

After the not wholly unexpected market decline Monday, there’s not really much to say about what happens next.  Early futures revealed a slip and slide downward was possible, although, with Gold up $8 bucks early, and the dollar down proportionately, we wouldn’t be surprised if this wasn’t a small half-day (or better) rally.  Futures were back to breaking even and into the green with 90-minutes to the open.

Thing is, if you take Eliott wave and trend channel theory even half-seriously, you’ll suspect that the move down of about 73 points on the S&P 500 Monday was likely only a small wave 1 of a large 1 of (3) down.

The Gospel of Market sniping tells us to anticipate a wave 2 up at some point.  And from that a wave 3 down.

But it really goes much, much deeper than that.  The waves in play now MIGHT be our long-awaited beginning of a Larger Wave 1 of a Still Bigger Wave III down.

Let’s go with that for a second.

Wave Counts Reveal Future?

Oftentimes, yes, they do.

Waves can all be reduced to spreadsheets based on average percentages of declines.  Pick a starting wave, look precisely at the range of outcomes, and suddenly a statistical prospect is revealed.  Like those certain conditions at the craps table, if you play.

Let’s take such a (hypothetical) spreadsheet and plug in (as our first (a) part of Wave (1) of III down being the Monday decline.  How far down could this initial move go?  To finish the smaller 1 of III.

Somewhere in the coming week, or two, therefore, we MIGHT trad down into the Wave V Possibilities above.

The Problem Is???

This is only the (a) down wave.  Understanding waves “nest” (one within another, in recursive macro-like structures), we can then take the Wave V outlook from above and estimate that for a Wave III (1) target.  Like this:

With this approach, we can look ahead a way and offer that the Wave (1) down of III Down around 3,538 (green box, right).

THEN to get to the “How bad could Wave III down really be?” we plug our Wave V at this level and assume this is how the larger (1) down of III could end.

Again, we take the Wave V and move it over into the first leg down and what happens?

Taken as a whole, then, we MIGHT not be surprised if, before all is said and done, that the Large Wave III could turn into something really fierce.  S&P 2,600?

EXCEPT, this isn’t how you assemble the Wave view, but we’ll show you subscribers a more realistic outlook on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow.

This?  Well, an example of how even a single trading day – like the Monday blow-down – can offer a huge collection of insights into our financial future.  This is also a process which can be applied to human behaviors and lots of other aspects of life.  The obvious limiting factor is the reliability of what would be – in DSP theory – your analog to digital converter.

No A/D conversion needed with financial data.  Political waffle making, interpersonal behaviors?  Experience builds and A/D convert (analog) into each of us over time.  When something is off kilter?  You “get a sense of things” which can be really good, or really, really bad.

Topic tomorrow on PN is “Faith as an Asset” – and it’s a key “rippler-into-future” that is under attack right now.

Trade Modeling

Trade figures are always complicated to sort out.  Some of the Reasons why?

  • To begin, when the Dollar is strong, it takes fewer dollars to buy overseas goods.  Looks like prices dropped.
  • But when prices rise it takes more dollars.
  • When prices fall it takes less.
  • And the whole frigging chinchilla doesn’t have anything to do with how much shit America’s really buying because all we get are the “dollarized versions” of data.  Easier than counting widgets.

With these asterisks in place, you’re now ready to read this morning’s dollarized and distorted gobbledygook trade report:

“DECEMBER 6, 2022 — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised.”

Oh, it gets worse:

October exports were $256.6 billion, $1.9 billion less than September exports. October imports were $334.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than September imports.
The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.1 billion to $99.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $21.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $136.9 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2021. Exports increased $415.3 billion or 19.8 percent. Imports increased $552.2 billion or 19.8 percent

Too early to assess the market direction, but our money is on a rally developing today, making this a minor league “Turnaround Tuesday”.  Which Ure will sit out in the “day trading penalty box” because we would never plop down $25 grand and trust the House is good for it and trade our way into financial heaven.  Thanks, trailer in the woods is fine.  How much is enough, really?

Last week’s data from the Association of American Railroads, by the way, says a great deal about widget counts:

“For the first 47 weeks of 2022, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,892,805 carloads, up 0.2 percent from the same point last year; and 12,298,102 intermodal units, down 4.8 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2022 was 23,190,907 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to last year.”

Which blows a hole through common bullshit “growth” assertions…

Global Mental Collapse

Outside of Markets, Trade, and the missing $65 trillion dollars (‘Huge, Missing and Growing:’ $65 Trillion in Dollar Debt Sparks Concern (yahoo.) we find a few stories this morning suggesting mental illness is communicable via the Internet.

Stories catching our eye included Disney closes iconic 33-year-old theme park ride that it now calls racist – TheBlaze.  Splash Mountain?  Seriously?

But wait, there’s more!  The madness of the ‘15-minute city’  which deals with Oxford, England’s plan to punish people for moving around too much.  File under “Green turns Mean.”  Watch Jim Kunstler for reaction.

Crazies Need to Silence Musk

Pretty obvious to us that Elon Musk is a more ballsy American patriot than most locally born people, what with his outing of the FedGov censorship program ahead of the 2020 election that likely aced Trump out of a second term.  Consequently? Musk Admits ‘Quite Significant’ Risk of Assassination (theepochtimes.com)

But there are other means for The Powers to handle such inconvenient truths (as this Hunter debacle).  For example, Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, employee backlash over animal tests. Cue the PTB paid agitators?

Slop Jar Headlines

Joe goes West to promo a foreign-owned chip plant.  Nice.  TSMC Plans $40 Billion U.S. Investment As President Biden Visits Arizona Chip Factory | The Olympian.  Ties us more into Taiwan.

White House stonewalling is still the plan for what one could label the Biden “crime family problem.”  Jean-Pierre calls ‘Twitter files’ revelations about censorship of Hunter Biden laptop story a ‘distraction that is full of old news’ – TheBlaze

Democrat election jiggering is expected to continue.  Why the DNC Can’t Kill the New Hampshire Primary | Time.  Meanwhile, we figure dems will win the Georgia run-off today by hook or by crook…

Consumer victory – kind of:  Hertz agrees to pay $168 million to settle charges it falsely accused customers of car theft (consumeraffairs.com).  Question now is how to get their criminal records cleaned up in computer systems?

Another interesting “crypto night” passes: Former Barclays plc boss Bob Diamond and stablecoin issuer Circle ditch US$9bn reverse merger.  And, did you see where there’s an AI BTC price forecast? Machine learning algorithm sets Bitcoin price for December 31, 2022 (finbold.com).  Color us skeptical and familiar with the limitations of computing.  Still, dueling AIs could be fun, huh?

Passings: Emmy Winner Kirstie Alley Of ‘Cheers’ Fame Dies After Battle With Cancer.

ATR: Attacks on Free Speech

With all the revelations about Twitter being under the FBI’s thumb prior to the 2020 election (sham), we think it’s very instructive to notice how the liberal congress is working its way towards “news control” of social media.

A good read-in is found in Facebook threatens to ban news in the US over journalism bill – The Verge.

Back in the earliest times of the Internet, I took a look at information platforms, what’s now half a century of news chasing, my membership in professional organizations (like the National Society of Newspaper Columnists) and a solid grounding in press rights and copyright before launching UrbanSurvival.

The decision then – now a quarter of a century back – was that we could not engage in content rip-offs.  When we author comment on a news item, it is usually with a link from a source’s own RSS feed or from search engine work.

The problem, for those of us who do actual writing for a living, is that content rip-off is a common thing these days.  Doubtless some outfits just cut code to trace back RSS sources, then copy and paste content into their own feeds and pretend that’s “news.”  No, that’s theft.

Thing is when people cut and paste major (and entire) portions of stories – beyond a simple RSS level, or the levels used to generate search engine results, then social media platforms really do cross a line of monetizing the content of others.

Point here is to keep an eye on how this evolves.  Setting up your own (off social) news sources is a really good idea.  If you don’t know of a good one, remember we keep a news sources page over here UrbanSurvival Business News Links Center which we can add to, or expand. Recommendations are welcome.

Thing is that most people don’t have much training in what’s “fair comment” and what’s “stealing of work.”  Which is why so many links appear in our reports.  We want you to go to sources and inspect what they’re reporting in depth.

For now, we don’t see any problem with posting RSS (or search style) links.  But keep an eye out for tech companies that are in the wholesale rip-off business.  Wholesale copying of copyrighted works should be a no-no.  But, search and RSS titles with links is another thing, entirely.

Keep an eye on the Meta whining.  And avoid websites that post whole sections of copy of key stories.  Those sites may be looking for a free ride, and enterprising news organizations should be protected.

Write when you get rich,


author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

37 thoughts on “Tiny Bouncer? Weighing Out Trade, Creeping Madness”

  1. I’m fascinated that we get headlines that read,
    “ Covid death rates are higher among Republicans than Democrats, mounting evidence show.”

    They go by covid deaths, by state colors (red and blue) … not by actual voter registration forms of the deceased in any given state.

    To me, this is absurd. But people fall for it and I’ve seen in comments, republicans yelling “Wtf??” and democrats cheering.
    It’s insanity at its finest.

    Funny how people who (STILL) hated Trump so much, they need a history lesson because they didn’t pay attention to what was really going on. – too busy finding fault to gossip about … but didn’t seem to mind that Bill did Monica or even notice that back in the day, JFK had a crush on Marilyn … or other things that didn’t work out for them. Guess it’s all in how the media spins it.

    There are those who judge on character and those who judge on achievement.

    If they don’t like your character, they don’t acknowledge your achievements. If they like your character, they don’t recognize your failures.

    Somebody on Instagram said,

    “The poke is so safe, you had to be threatened to take it. A virus so dangerous, you have to take a test to know if you HAD it. Elections so secure, you can’t inspect the machines that ran it. An economy so strong, they have to pay you to stay home and not go to work. A society so free that if you question anything, you’re censored or banned.”

    Anybody care to add to the list?

    • The same people that sell the panic, sell the cure.

      I bought my first life insurance policy when I was 22 and married for 3 months. The salesman looked me in the eye and with a face of fear said “son, what if the little lady is pregnant and you get killed by a car on the way home tonight? They may have to live in a homeless shelter the rest of their days. A whole life insurance policy for a mere half your monthly income will take care of them.”

      Two years ago, I was told that a rogue bat shit virus from China had dropped on a creepy scaly edible animal in a wet market and was coming to get me and all my old friends. Dr. Fauci assured me that Pfizer and Moderna just happened to have the protection I needed.

      Fifty eight years hasn’t changed much has it?

      • Bic: Nope.

        Let me tell you a story.

        Dad could not afford private life insurance.

        Did he ever have a company paid policy in the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s while he was married and raising 9 kids? I never asked him.

        At 63, in 1993, he had congestive heart failure.

        A heart transplant was recommended.

        His HEALTH insurance stalled and did not want to pay for a heart transplant.

        He was told he wouldn’t live very long without it.

        He was also told if he got a heart transplant and lived through the surgery, the drugs to keep his body from rejecting the heart would be $2k a month. (The price quoted for the surgery, at that time, was $250,000; no way did he have that kind of money.) And, he was told with a heart transplant, he might live 5 more years.

        It was a fear factor to the 10th degree for him and our whole family as we met with the doctors and team. I can still see that wonderful man shrink down in his chair as he was hearing the good the bad and the ugly.

        Somewhere, in his spirit, he thought about it and decided he did not want one.

        Then, he could not get life insurance.

        Most, not all, Term policies quit at 80 and 85, however, I do not know about all about Term policies, and, of course, if you can continue to pay the premiums you can have Whole Life coverage until 100 (maybe more, I do not know).

        There was no way he could afford it if he could get it due to his health status.

        Anyway, the best part of the story is he lived to be 85; 2015. He did not die of heart failure!!!! His trusty heart made it all that additional time and he did not get a pace maker either nor did he let them sever the nerve between the upper and lower heart forcing a pace maker.

        That man, NEVER gave up, and he did not let ANYONE tell him his life expectancy. His faith was so strong; his LOVE for his family was so strong that he LIVED on that love.

        He had a great life from 63 to 85. He went back to work for a while, he traveled all over, he welcomed 10 Grandchildren into the world, and he never missed a chance to have some fun.

        Even after he got Parkinson’s, he was out the door, cane, walker, or wheel chair, out and about and living life.

        He didn’t look a day over 55 when he passed over.

        I noticed that his life kept him young: LOVE, RESPONSIBILITY, AND FAITH KEEPS ONE YOUNG.

        P.S. One thing I absolutely do know about my Dad was he would never ever have taken that experimental non-vaccine. He never got the flu shot either.

    • …”but didn’t seem to mind that Bill did Monica or even notice that back in the day, JFK had a crush on Marilyn…”

      Yep, or that Lyndon Baines Johnson did every woman he could. (Heard first hand 30 years ago. My source is dead but will also remain anonymous.)

      • Try some facts you say? Here’s one: The date on the link you posted is from November of *2021*. It is always somewhat less than impressive when a tendentious lefty (such as yourself) uses “facts” that are more than a year out of date. This is particularly the case when the year old link simply regurgitates a New York Times (that bastion of objectivity) article.

        Let’s looks at some more recent, actual facts (rather than the unprovable, NYT wish-casting that getting the the jab prevents “serious/fatal” cases of Covid.


        Money quote: “Austria, one of the most repressive European countries during the coronavirus pandemic, has recently overtaken Sweden in terms of total covid mortality, showing that almost all government interventions have been ineffective and unjustified.”

        Re-read that last sentence several times and let the meaning sink in.

        Then use that NYT article from a year ago for its highest useful purpose.

        And in the event that you do not have a bird to line its cage with, go out and buy one.

        In addition to providing a use for NYT content, buying a bird will also produce someone who might believe the propaganda Fauci-fetishists (like you?) are still circulating about the non-vaccine, vaccine. Because, in light of more and more data that is coming out, only a bird brain (or a loonie lefty…I repeat myself) would continue at this point to believe in and pimp the jab.


  2. Most everyone is out here scamming.

    The other day I was @ $WMT and I think a consumer rolled a cart of goods up to the U-Scan, paused, didn’t scan or bag anything then pushed the cart right out the front door like he owned the place. His car was parked near mine and I watched him put one item at a time from the cart into the backseat.

    These CEOs dumping pension plans on us through PBGC is the same. It’s not quite taxation w/o representation because PBGC is ‘lawful’ but bailout money wasn’t earned.

    Law only works on people who care. If you have nothing to lose why not grab a cart?

      • WM is closing stores in the ABQ area at 9:00pm during the Xmas season! This is pretty weird, and it’s due to crime out of control, not just outright theft, but violence too. The alleged mayor Keller is soft on crime and police cannot be recruited in anywhere near the numbers needed. Private security is now obvious at all of the box stores, though I’ve still seen people “shopping” and pushing their fully loaded carts out of the doors without paying at all. Employees are prohibited from interfering.

        The only thing that stops crime is swift and sure punishment. Neither is even on the table, and judges are cutting felons loose ROR, never to be seen again. I’m all for individual freedom and liberty, but never at the cost of allowing true crime(where there is a real victim). I don’t like the possibility of a draconian reversal, but it’s preferable to the current idiocy. No business can survive constant theft and violence. I suspect I may have to reread Tainter and/or Ayn Rand.

    • LMAO, Not condoning theft. But who the heck could have seen this on the hidden costs and risks to automating another minimum wage human out of a cashier job?

      Wait, I see how that could happen, that scenario always goes under “Supporting Slides” listed beyond the closing presentation slide. Cant have a program that has any caveats that could derail the sales pitch. And that’s the problem corp amer is suffering from at all levels. Its like driving with blinders on and wondering how your ship of corp got t-boned at the intersection.

    • At our local WMT stores, there is an ‘associate’ at the exit door checking receipts against cart contents. Your stores are failing badly at loss control!

      • That associate the door(and often security too) exists in NM too, but they have no legal power to stop thieves, and Walmart will fire them if they try to prevent the theft. It’s probably an insurance thing, so many stores have licensed private security, but they’re not LEO’s and can only engage to a limited degree. Local police have been stationed at some of these stores, being paid by the stores for extra duty, I presume. The real problem is that the criminals have been told bu politicians that they can get away scot free as long as they don’t go over $1000 value per trip. Many of these shoplifters are part of local gangs and other organized theft rings.

        One advantage of Hawaii is that criminals can’t easily leave the state, or perhaps even the island.

      • The door checker has no legal standing, and the customer, no legal obligation to allow his cart to be checked. It is a “courtesy check” and shoppers may choose, or choose not to be courteous.

        Thieves are allowed to walk, because the stuff they filch is replaced by insurance (except during a war, riot, or insurrection) and the cost of an injury lawsuit, juried by peers who’re sympathetic to the thief, is much higher than letting ’em go.

        How to fix the issue? I’m sure folks have better ideas than I, but here’s a couple to get the ball rolling…

        Eliminate the right of criminals to sue for damages while they are in commission of a felony.

        Raise the price of every item in the store by $1000, thus ensuring the theft of anything, even a gumball, is a felony (provide an instant rebate of $1000 per item for every item wrung-up in a check-out.)

        Enable security to use whatever force [is] necessary to detain thieves until police arrive… Then ALWAYS press charges. (This is the “system” which governs the farm store near me. They always detain and always press charges. For those who get away, their picture is posted, taken from a security cam time-stamped cap of them stealing whatever they stole.)

        Or simply wait until the underwriters lose their ass, and raise insurance premiums into the 8-figures per store range…

      • I don’t know of anyone that has complained about the door checker.. doesn’t bother me in one bit.. and in a few cases.. they discovered that I had not taken all the bags on the bag stand.. so In my opinion it is a good thing..

  3. George, it might be interesting to keep an eye on which news organizations have been angry at Facebook’s current theft-of-services — and which ones become angry at the threat to STOP the theft.

  4. $65 Trillion in hidden derivative debt.., and due to a loop-hole., it doesn’t have to be reported, or placed “on the books”., what could possibly go wrong with that ?

    • Dudes and Dudettes – wait till ya see all the Un Hedged/U nCollaterillez weapons of financial destruction (derivatives) linked/connected to busted/bankrupted Crypto’s…oh my!

      never mind Lions, Tigers and Bears….crypto “debt” going to destroy a few moar players/banks/brokerage houses..tickticktick..

      No BTC , no Trust .

      ken “layed” indeed..

    • Just $65Trillion? Globull derivatives “over the counter” debt used to suppress price discovery on commoditized products is running north of $4 Quadrillion.

    • Ahh haa, the Club of Rome, The Committee of 300, The Bilderburgers; where have we seen this discussion before?

      Comments on WF? video:

      The Limits to Growth, the AGENDA.

      You can see that all roads lead to planned collapse of all the systems they tout to fail. We are watching their take down of them right now.

      Called “The Future of Intentional Planned Consequences.” Has anyone written that book yet?

      • Now think about that.. the bilderbergs.. the club of rome.. etc.. the grove.. the three hundred people pulling the strings.. all in one place…
        at the same time.. and they are not afraid.. that their actions would prompt some world leader that they are trying to destroy would take advantage of the situation.. Now that is control.. and fear of their power..

  5. Re: “Green turns mean.”


    Does it seem on the surface that the Oxford, UK council is slightly barmy with talk of a “15 minute city” with a plan that handcuffs private car use? The link supplied by George offers interesting mention of the C40 organization as a mover of the nonsense.

    While I had never heard of the UK-based C40, it’s been around for a while already with Mr. Clinton having been a co-founder. The mayor of London is presently the chair, and billionaire Mr. Bloomberg is president. The latter’s charitable foundation helps finance C40 along with the charity of billionaire UK hedge fund owner Sir Hohn KCMG. A third financier is a Realdania, a Danish architectural group of sorts aiming for climate neutrality by 2050.

    Thank goodness some people are trying to ease vehicle traffic flows for the motorcades. Chopper flights from the City to Teterboro must be expensive!

    Well, time flies. Expressed in the manner as known since Roman times before being requisitioned by the digital age, the hour of sext approaches.

    Talk later.

    • Re: did the goalposts move again?


      Yep. Hershel. He ain’t no Tom Brady.

      Can we talk something out? Days after the the EU bites on the Biden bait of a $60 oil cap, what happens? Saudi is hosting Mr. Xi in Riyadh along with an OPEC+ meeting. Is the OPEC+ Russian representative in attendance?

      Meanwhile, vehicles are flowing smoothly through a fuel station in a North Philly no-go zone thanks to AR15 support. Third world practices are dawning in America.


  6. ” Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, employee backlash over animal tests.”

    REALLY? Where’s the backlash over Fauci, obtaining 2000 beagle puppies from a clearinghouse in Indianapolis earlier this year, so NIH could kill them in horrible fashion?

  7. Goldman Sachs plans to spend millions on crypto-related investments after FTX’s downfall.
    “We have seen more client interest since the demise of FTX.”
    – Guess I am not all that smart.., after reading about all the abuse and waste from the FTX fiasco, i’d be running in the opposite direction.

    • d’Lynn: client interest is code for insider trading. Can’t you see all the goodies and bennies the insiders STOLE without a trace, and no recourse for the victims?

      New con same as the old con.

  8. A little surprised at the depth of the sell-off in the markets this morning. I figured a slight dead-cat bounce from yesterday and then a slow choppy downward pressure. Hhhmmm., are they starting to add-in., adjust for the Fed rate announcement?

      • If this is the top of a minor 2 [ of 3 down ] then it does look as though it “is” over., and we should continue down to 3.., and the math says it’s a long way down.
        .., and I have to say – I don’t trust any of this right now.., something is off.

  9. The nation states are being told which side they picked.

    ‘Stop sending wrong signals’: China’s stark warning to Australia

    China has officially responded to the arrival of six Australian federal MPs in Taiwan, warning Australia to “stop sending wrong signals”.

    “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The one-China principle is a universally recognised norm in international relations and the prerequisite and political foundation for the development of friendly relations between China and other countries,” she said.


  10. Several weeks or, probably, a month or two ago there was a discussion here about energy. I suggested the solution has been here since the beginning and a ZH article describes it here – “US Nuclear Submarine ‘Buzzed By Underwater Object’ Traveling ‘Faster Than Speed Of Sound’: Scientist” – https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-nuclear-submarine-buzzed-underwater-object-traveling-faster-speed-sound-scientist. Some kind of craft traveling in a gravity bubble that works at unimaginable depths as well as out into space.

    Anyway, down in the comments there was this link to a 3 year old video from Dr. August Dunning who’s YT channel is Sunday Morning on Mars. He’s pretty much detailing everything Ben over at Suspicious 0bservers has been telling us about for years now, too. However, along about the middle it talks about the energy propulsion systems that power the UAPs and their sea-going counterparts – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=er5rWyoL9M0&t=1122s – and goes on to describe the DUMBs and their reasons for building them. Bottom line is, given what they know is coming and given what surviving populations have done in the past to get through the recurring solar novas, they’re basically out of ideas as to what else to do – so they’re going to do all they can to save their elitist asses. Given the probability that the nova event is true and imminent, geologically speaking, it’s also the reason the crazies in government are being unleashed and given free reign to wreak havoc on our Earth. Perhaps getting rid of as many of us as possible is seen as a mercy by lowering the number of people on the surface when it all comes about. I probably won’t be around when it happens but he kids and grandkids’ life will be a steaming pile right up to the end. Let’s all pray Yahweh has a better idea!

  11. i dare not say my thoughts anywhere .. so cryptically !!!!!!!!!!! really Jerome !! you farken washed up turd . insert it all .. you would probably enjoy that

  12. jac, here’s some more current data saying the same thing, you are pimping death by promoting opposition to the vaccine (Republicans do this at a higher rate than Democrats), your linked article says nothing about the vaxxed death rate vs unvaxxed death rate in Austria, Sweden:



    Notice only Peru and Greece have a higher per capita Covid death rate than the U.S.:

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