You get a short report this morning because I am working on the ChartPack for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics.com subscriber report.
What’s become apparent to me is that there are a number of metrics that definitely impact business, which are not encompassed in traditional stock market technical analysis.
I would propose the information homogeneity, speed of information, and settlement speed are more drivers of the markets that some of “the Greeks” calculated from internal stock ratios.
There’s also not a number that adequately captures competitive returns very well.
Right now, Ure’s of the view *(as proposed many years back) that a blow-off in markets would become more pronounced as interest rates rose in the bond market.
Helps to know that the price of bonds goes down as their yield goes up.
Therefore, when the bond rates are rising – and there’s some rumble that two more interest rate hikes will come in 2018 – there will be some disintermediation. Simply: money will flow out of bonds to the higher yields offered by stocks.
Stocks, don’t forget, are up 30 percent (roughly, on average) since Trump went to Washington. Bonds? They seem to have been stuck down in the 2.3-2.4 percent range (basis the 10-Year Treasury).
This morning, though, we see how bonds were peeking over 2.6 percent. That means the price of bonds is headed down and “hot money” – which always flows to the highest returns – is likely to be flowing into stocks because of…well, greed!
Meantime, Ure’s crackpot theory on informational discontinuities, suggests that 24-hour markets have served well to decrease market volatility. This is why – in Peoplenomics tomrorow – we will be talking about the comparative rate of increase between 1929 blow-off and the present.
Back then, information discontinuities were much higher. Many market players were only able to get stock quotes from the late afternoon or morning newspaper. And it was like point and click: Orders were given to a broker, consolidated, sent to New York when physical runners (not tablets) were prompting the floor action.
Our present thinking is that the present rally m at still have a long way up, but more on that tomorrow.
The Nest Nature of Elliott’s Coins
So far, knock on wood,, our analysis of Bitcoins using trend channels and Elliott wave theory has been relatively good guidance compared with the BTFD (buy the frigging dips) crowd which is usually unable to see clearly because they are mainly emotionally invested in their financial decisions.
Our longer-term outlook was that Bitcoin may be heading for $868, now that the critical support region has been reached.
This morning we offer some other things to think about, but as always this is not financial advice – only market observations.
The key thing is that when we look at Bitcoin since the December 17 All Time High, we have an obvious wave 1 down. Wave II up took us to the 17,250 level. And then we collapsed down to three days ago and a few minutes in the 9,600 range.
Remember: Elliott waves are usually nested. And so while the big picture suggests $868, now that we have begun Wave III down, this is a nested wave which is also subject to analysis.
This means we can grok where the III could take us since wave (1) down of the larger III down bottomed earlier this week. This results in a “bounce from here” target of perhaps 14,327. As of this morning, the BTCs are on their way to that ‘hood trading around $11,930.
We then look to the third wave down, and a nice Fibo 0.618 decline overall would set up the wave (4) bounce. And after that, we’d go down and finish the collapse to the $465 to $868 kind of range.
But we shall see. This only works because humans still trade the same regardless of what it is they are trading. Which is a weird notion when you think about it. It’s why social media can turn into a lynch mob and such and lots of other things that we won’t speak of on the free side of things for now.
Of all the cities on the list for Amazon’s HQ2, we favor Dallas as the “right spot.” It has a bigh-ass airport, it has direct flights to Europe, it’s in the middle of the country. Real estate is cheaper than almost anywhere. Taxes are low. Texas is growing. It’s further north than Austin – which seems a more spendy choice on the basis of fuel and shipping prices.
The northern Virginia area we’d judge to be OK, too, but it’s a clear loser on a tax basis. Remember, Uretopia Ranch is less than 90 minutes from Dallas, is rural, and the whole 30 acres of tree farm can be yours today for $300K including tools and equipment. In other words, Texas is stupidly cheap. Property tax on all that (*since we’re ag exempt)? $681 this year. Nutty.
The property taxes (and trajectory) of Northeast States is being discovered by outfits like The Hill which is quoting the website http://www.richstatespoorstates.org/.
Suddenly, the idea of taxigration (tax policy immigration) comes into focus. We figured that out a dozen years back and have so far been able to avoid the rush to rural.
If you flip over there (http://www.richstatespoorstates.org/) , you’ll see Texas may seem “poor” but with no public pension strangeholds (think California and Illinois) the odds of Amazon moving and finding itself at the center of a public pension “tax shakedown” are considerably smaller.
There’s an international version of “luring big business” going on as seen in France’s Davos? Macron hosting 140 CEOs in investment push.
Dow futures are pointing to a hundred point up near the open…suits us fine
Oh, and listen to the whine of poverty in the Street in Wall Street traders brace for meager paychecks as bonus season approaches. Yeah…welcome to the planet the rest of us are on.
Shutdown? Shut Up
Your Social Security won’t stop because of a government shutdown, and federal workers of the Deep State will still be paid – even if they don’t go to work, so all this crap about a “government shutdown” is horse puckey.
Not to the whining mainstream media though: Futures climb as investors shrug off government shutdown fears.
Anything for eyeballs – and to give the Deep Staters free time off – which they won’t work, but do get paid for at least in past budget deals.
Worthy of Note
Allergy Sufferers: Delta Air to tighten onboard emotional support animal requirements.
Swimmingly Putin: Bare-chested Putin takes dip in icy lake for Epiphany. And how many nominal Christians do you know willing to do this? Putin is acting seriously Christian.
The Obama Economy follow-up from Reuters: Exclusive: Most U.S. states lost coal mining jobs in 2017 – data
CNN’s Trump Bash du jour: Artists mark one year of Trump as president. (File under bleeding hearts, empty brains.)
One way to cut “climate change” – China’s Birthrate Dropped Last Year Despite Beijing’s Relaxation of the One-Child Policy.
The nuclear clubhouse report: India’s Ballistic Missile Test Is a ‘Direct Threat,’ a Chinese State-Owned Newspaper Says. WTF, like turnabout isn’t fair play, you PLA Lop Nur types?