Read ’em and weep – we keep telling you what’s ahead. Things like…:
- Falling Markets
- Election Woes
- Climate Change Nonsense
Time for a little “Personal Accounting” and Reality Checking this morning. (Can you tell I’m sick of the same-old stories, refried?)
Let’s start with Falling Markets and Election Woes and see how that outlook from November 2 is working out, shall we? The key paragraphs are:
On Falling Markets – Here’s what was said:
“Again, NOT ADVICE – just some noodling and modeling.
Which can, in turn, be read a couple of ways. One is that we will get some surprising good news and the logical stopping point at 2,520 on the S&P will hold. OR, the Prechter count is correct (end of world is in sight), in which case S&P 1,540 might not hold and we’re into a full-on collapse. Think in terms of an 80 percent or greater decline in pricing.”
The reason for pointing this one out is that between Friday of last week and mid-session yesterday, we managed about a 4-1/2 percent gain in our “play account.” This is the one where I am willing to test damn near any market theory. Sometimes it works out very badly (like losing $10-grand earlier this year when a particular highly levered trading model turned out to be flawed…). But, there are other times like quite recently, when “new and improved” models have been remarkably profitable. It’s only money…and that’s how we keep score.
Whether you invest (gamble) in stocks, or not, at some point people have to commit to a future and make some personal investment in it. Figure out where the future is going and you can make winning bets. Get it wrong? Well, you lose. Simple as that.
Sure, happens in slow-motion. But the BIG decisions in life (where to live, how to deploy your personal assets) are not “overnight” and no, they don’t come with “do-overs” either.
Our views tend to be driven by history and by that metric, we’re still worried about the last week of this month. Downside wash-out ahead? We shall see.
Election Woes – Here’s what we said:
On November 2…still true today…
“We expect there will be wreckage – a possible democrat house and a republican senate. Gridlock as never before. Finger-pointing while America collapses; attacked from division within that has been nurtured for years and invaded from without supported by a domestic Fifth Column:.”
Yep,. this one is huge, also. We are reading an ongoing flurry of headlines about how this election is far from decided and it was a week ago. Dandy. Thing is, we got the outlook right. We made good bets.
Here’s the One That Matters
Over the past several years I have been warning you that a) Global Warming was likely a scam and b) the Son of Global Warming – Climate Change was its bastard-child offspring. All to much derision from the programmable peeps of the Thoughtless Generation.
“Today, you may wish to read, as we have suggested often, about urban heat islanding, as well. Although we take it as Gospel that a lot of Wiki edits come from climate “true believers” the fact of urban heat islanding is clear in this entry:
“An urban heat island (UHI) is an urban area or metropolitan area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities. The temperature difference usually is larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. UHI is most noticeable during the summer and winter. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is from the modification of land surfaces. Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor. As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. The less-used term heat island refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.“
On this basis, I am not a “climate denier.”
I am something far more dangerous: I’m a statistically-based independent thinker. The worst nightmare of the elites, their bought & paid government and enviro-minions. We ask a lot of “inconvenient questions.”
While the panic-stricken mainstream was yammering about “worst hurricane season ever” we looked for the data to support such claims.
The correct answer is? 2005.
That article was usefully titled “Ugly “Climate Change” Crap.
Today, our view is being vindicated. “Lack of sunspots to bring record cold, warns NASA scientist“ shows up on Robert Felix’ “Ice Age Now” site. See the related “The Chill of Solar Minimum.” As Robert noted in his remarks, “It Could Happen in a Few Months…”
We will have additional remarks on point in coming weeks. Not just because it’s winter, but there’s a chance that some real money can be made by understanding – and synthesizing the news about cold – for profit.
Let me show you what I mean as a “get-started” gift to get you thinking.
Let’s imagine that several “assertions” are true.
- Global warming was crap and (as it’s peeking at us now) so is “climate change” – hurricanes, floods, and fires been around forever.
- There is a Long Wave in Economics. We are about to find out if my friend Robin Landry is right and we’re going through a major Elliott Wave IV – with a year or three long Wave V to the upside yet to come. OR, Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International holds the right view saying (essentially) It’s over NOW.
- Oil, in case you haven’t noticed is “in the tank.” Longest Losing Streak on Record figures MarketWatch.
- The US Federal Budget deficit is about to do a moonshot.
Pay attention here – because if you want to get “rich” (sending a one percent tip would be nice, lol) here’s ONE WAY things could work out:
We know that in Elliott V’s that the price of precious metals goes up. Historically, anyway. So do other commodities like food and oil. What are the drivers in play right now that could result in a Fifth Wave Up – in the face of a massive solar minimum?
- We know that energy of all kinds will go up in price because we will be using a LOT MORE to keep warm and there will be more ag inputs to make enough food for 7+ billion peeps when the heat gets turned down by Ma Nature and her Sun.
- We can already see the collapse of the dollar on the horizon. The present purchasing power (in terms of calories and real estate) is less than 4% of what it was when the banksters seized the lawful money-creation role from Congress in 1913.
- Ultimately, the government will need to reassert its role over money, Called “conspiracy theories about Kennedy’s death” the late Jim Marr’s book “Crossfire: The Plot That Killed Kennedy” has enough verifiable facts to be very worrisome.
- This means pegging the value of money to something other than political jingoisms, Like Gold, Silver or the Next Gold: which could very well be oil if the Big Cold is really coming. (Jury is out, we’re just play Bull here, lol).
- Also, remember that the whole Digital Tulips movement can blow-up any time. What’s to prevent you, me, and a six-pack from making up our own crypto currency, right? I assume you have read all the gory details on the energy wasted in “mining” the digital tulip fields? Before you spend one red cent on a Crypto, go read the chapter “v.
- Cryptocurrencies: Looking Beyond the Hype:” by the Bank for International Settlements.
- “But the issue goes well beyond storage capacity, and extends to processing capacity: only supercomputers could keep up with verification of the incoming transactions. The associated communication volumes could bring the internet to a halt, as millions of users exchanged files on the order of magnitude of a terabyte…”
On top of being a total energy waste. Our short 69-years on the planet suggests NOT betting against the gnomes of Zurich.
An aside: There’s a reason most of them banking gnomes are referred to as Herr Doktor…they’re usually very damn smart.
Smart, understand, is often confused with conspiracies. Think of this “Ure axiom” as the economics version of Arthur C. Clake’s Third Law: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
When you get sufficiently smart, the crowds with the pitchforks get nervous (Look on Facebook for ’em) and they will call it a conspiracy and here comes a twit-storm.
In our own VERY ROUGH CLOUD of ideas, the overarching strategies – if we live long enough to see it through – go something like this:
- Play the short side of the market, stepping to cash like we did yesterday when the bulk of a short-term decline is toast.
- NOT playing the short-term bounces like the one which could power the market up for a Fibonacci retracement for a couple of days.
- Then, at the bottom, roll into an assortment of “hard assets” like buying oil stocks based on cost of proven reserves per share…
- Then enjoy the Wave V super blow-off in 2019.
- When that’s done – and the Cold New World begins to really bite in and global economics has its wheels coming off, again be over on the short side for the “profits of a lifetime.”
Of course, by then, I will be 71, or so, and it’s not like there’s much of anything that I haven’t already done in life. Still, writing up Big Picture columns like this one – with the goal of opening up your thinking to a different kind of future – well, what can be better than helping a few brothers and sisters out, huh?
So that’s present thinking. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Pass it on to your friends and remember, there’s a growing body of evidence, not the least of which is Sun spots that argues while Mr. Ure is nutty and ADHD, he’s not quite crazy. The bank might even agree.
Quips and Quotes
Some mornings it’s like Diogenes looking for an honest story around here. One that didn’t come out of a PR firm of government agency…
October Balance of Trade Data will improve when the data is released down the road. We know this because? “Boeing’s October 737 deliveries up on strong demand.” Remember who told you the future.
This was a given: “U.S. judge halts Keystone XL oil pipeline in blow to Trump, Trudeau.” A given why? Appointed by Barack Obama in 2013, perhaps?
Still more evidence that economic expansion is going on below the surface in “CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Find the Overall US Mortgage Delinquency Rate in August Fell to the Lowest Level in More Than 12 Years.”
And yes, they really are out there: “Irish Authorities Are Investigating UFOs Reported By 3 Commercial Pilots on a Single Night.” Just too much data…but what can the global controllers hide and for how long?
That’s the rub, ain’t it?
OK – Peoplenomics and Prepping tomorrow…tell your closest 10,000 friends about UrbanSurvival and come on back tomorrow.