Let’s have a look before we jump to conclusions:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in May, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, including retail trade, health care, and construction.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent in May, and the number of unemployed persons declined to 6.1 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate was down by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 772,000.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), Blacks (5.9 percent), and Asians (2.1 percent) decreased in May. The jobless rates for adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent)
changed little over the month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.2 million in May and accounted for 19.4 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 476,000.”
All looks just peachy as hell.
While the labor participation rate was down -10th, the number of people who could ONLY find part time work was down 106,000.
On the CES Birth-Death Model, we’re a bit bewildered: 215,000 of the 293,000 new jobs were “estimated into existence.” Believable methodology? Mostly. 39,000 new construction jobs might be real. But going from 1,000 new jobs in trade, transportation and utilities last month to a claimed 22,000 new jobs this month? Scratching my head there.
15,000 more jobs in education? Going into summer? ViseGrips!
Don’t mind me – the markets don’t Futures holding +120 as we click publish.
Whistling in the graveyard? Deutsche Bank making progress on turnaround: ECB source.
Most Recent Fed Data: M1 annualized in the H.5 money stocks most recent 90 days through May 21: +3.5%
Markets to Rally – Briefly
I swear, sometimes the market (like a horse not reading the Daily Racing Form) must not be reading my column.
I had it figured that we would get a two-part rally following the Tuesday lows, but we only saw the peak of the first part come in Thursday. Then we got what an Elliott chartist would call a B wave down.
Where I got it wrong (but should turn right as rain today) was expecting one more rally.
Based on the early futures read, that should come in today.
In the greater scheme of things, the important numbers in our long wave economic view is that the Aggregate Index (that we track for Peoplenomics.com subscribers) ended May at 23.020.2.
The problem is that April had ended at 22,338.5 and that could be seen (depending on tea-reading skills) as a sign that the monthly has rolled over.
Making money on this is more difficult. Since I’m not going to give you any of my personal positions (a slimy lawyer might argue that’s “advice”) I will simply propose to you that at the lows in February we were down around 21,733.3 in our Aggregate view of things.
Take those numbers (and your MBA) and see if you can work it out. At the ultra-zoom level, it looks like we need to go lower than February’s lows…and that could be a painful decline.
A few people who watch markets seem fond of pointing out “Crashes don’t happen in the Summer.”
While this is true, it may not be because there’s some corner of the sky being held up by natural forces. Rather, it could be (with only 123 reliable summers of data, that one just hasn’t come up yet.
We’re not putting out the Chicken Little alert, but short positions MIGHT turn out to be the silver lining.
Note from .miller warhammer:
Interesting that this was published by the Stars and Stripes, a long-standing and reliable news vehicle for the U.S. military community.
NSS – and a big EQ just before or after, wasn’t there?
Errors of Emission: Germany threatens Daimler with 3.75 billion euro fine over emissions: Spiegel.
Spendy car wash: Classic 1963 Ferrari 250 GTO sold for record $70 million.
A Friday Ponder…
Do You Trust Anti-Trust?
Should the US Government be broken up on anti-trust grounds? They’re talking about doing just this to tech giants…
I won’t be gentle here: The U.S. Government is duplicitous.
A nice way of saying they are two-faced (“…containing more than one allegation….”) when comes to the whole notion of Anti-Trust. Government exempt’s itself from anti-trust laws. But should it?
Worth mentioning with the Wall St. Journal story out today on how “Amazon, Facebook and Google may be repeating the history of steel, utility, rail and telegraph empires past—while Apple appears ”
Government – especially the left-influenced Deep State – has a problem here. IF they believe it is so important to maintain competitive environments, such that the Amazon, Google, and Facebook people DON’T get monopolies, then why should GOVERNMENT have a monopoly?
They’re all in it for the money, right?
Ask yourself this – because the advent of modern computing makes this possible: Should the U.S. government be split up?
Imagine a world where we have two providers of Federal Government. Based on what they deliver, you could elect to pay your taxes to either USA-1 or USA-2.
If you pay into USA-1, you would ONLY partake of USA-! benefits in return for your taxes. Drive on a road owned by USA-2 and you get a bill (toll) – which in case you missed it, they’re doing ANYWAY.
Hmmm… getting Social Security? Who is offering a more honest sounding retirement system? USA-1 is making up prom notes to itself. USA-2 uses Social Security payments to underwrite their student loans.. Pick-a-poison time..
USA-1 allows abortions, pot use, and doesn’t fly B-52’s 24/7. Their part of the border has no wall. They don’t check to see if anyone is a citizen.
But USA-2 flies nukes, bans pot, has borders, checks voter ID’s, bans abortions…and you would be able to pick which “country” within the country you want to be in.
Caught with a doobie? One citizen goes to jail, the other gets a pass. Exactly what happens now, but it cuts “being rich” and “affording the best lawyer” out of the question.
Government should be held to the same standard as has been attempted for cable TV providers: Everything ought to be ala cart. Want healthcare? Pay. No healthcare? Don’t pay, but risk death. Don’t like foreign policy? Opt out of the defense portion of income tax.
As we have said previously: One reason this anti trust stuff is coming up now is we have a Real Estate president. Amazon doesn’t lease anchor space in shopping malls. Trump real estate cronies make billions leasing to insurance companies who need to park long term dough. The Buy a Mall for Lunch Bunch is learning people hate traffic.
Developers COULD have gone where Bezos IS, but they got complacent.
The problem is anti-trust, unlike steel and rails in the old days, is NOT correctly used in a multiple supply channel world. You don’t HAVE to use Amazon. You COULD drive to Best Buy.
See how this pops the day after the Sears store closing plans? Coincidence? NO – old guard protecting itself from a future they didn’t see coming. Far from visionaries with balls, they are fat cats with Mallagra.
Amazon is a self-solving problem though – Wall-Mart is coming after their ass with a vengeance as we’ve been explaining to PN readers for a couple of years.
Facebook? If it becomes too political, simply turn it off or nationalize it. Bore people to death with it – like the NPR model.
Again: Is search indexing a public utility or is it an open source deal? What could happen is Google and the other outfits could all simply be forced to report EVERY BIT OF DATA COLLECTION they are engaged in.
People’s hair would spontaneously combust. Investors would jump out (of windows -or iOS, lol – or stock positions) and harmony and balance in the world resumes.
Bottom Line: Government considers itself “special.”
We agree – it is – in certain kinds of tech. Google sells data (and to government) we presume. So why not just nationalize Google? Might be marketed as Government’s Onerous, Obnoxious Grab, Legally Exempt) and we become China II.
See our Digital Mob Rule discussion on the subscriber side tomorrow.
As a citizen, who do you trust more: Capitalistic slime to run all search, or corrupt politicians? Not much of a choice, is it?
Shopping online? Amazon’s got to deal with Wal-Mart. Watch the deals roll.
Facebook? Outlaw social media – as we’ve been arguing for years. It’s dangerous, drives people to distraction (and may play a hand in shaming, bullying, school shootings, and social isolation). Cite public mental health issues and close ’em down.
Or, require socialist credits to yammer – like China does. Bar people who post hate on FB from riding Amtrak, or whatever. See where this gets us? More government power is bad government power.
This isn’t one steel giant (like US Steel) or whoever in the last Depression. We still have other channels, other vendors. This is government trying to keep up its monopoly powers over corporations because they are challenging both We the People and American Values.
What no one seems to realize (and this gets to my new book and the Digital Mob Rule concept) Government is obsolete already. It just isn’t apparent yet. A new Global Mind is rising and governments will fall if they fail to embrace the change.
There…how’s that for a radical view?
Wait till corporations here about my re-gov.org idea! “There’s got to be some way out of here, said the Joker to the Thief…:”
We’re not going to find it, if we don’t start looking. Sitting on one’s national ass don’t fix or change jack…know what I’m saying?
<More Monday – stay out of jail, avoid radicals, and brush after every meal.>