The Tripwires of 2018

We have again seen a spectacularly correct year in our outlooks for the market.  Importantly, we have also grown our ability to ‘get it right’ this year on several fronts.

But we won’t make a foolish forecast of optimism overall, although that was an easy call last year.  The reason?  We have a large (and growing) number of tripwires to be wary of in 2018.  Any one of them could provide the critical prick to blow-out the stock bubble.  And no question, but that Wall Street has its full complement of pricks….

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Comments

The Tripwires of 2018 — 4 Comments

  1. I personally am not to worried about a war starting this year.
    In the past I have known quite a few members of the military’s elite. It seemed like every police action that happened happened on the holidays close to the winter solstice. My thoughts are that that happened because the worst possible time for any country is in the worst possible temperature ranges.. Not in the spring or close to it. during the nastiest part of the year when a disruptions in the infrastructure would be totally devastating.
    Heck look at the last few we have been in where even with our military might a bunch of sheep herders have proven to be more resilient than we ever thought with pitch forks and hoes..another point is even though I don’t have a lot of faith in how they operate. I personally don’t think that those that are leading us are that stupid. with the global reaches of all the countries now it would hit our shores.

  2. Glad to see you take John Williams seriously, George. I’ve noticed he hasn’t granted any public interviews in quite a while. I’d think it would be because he’d be reiterating everything he’s said before and it would all boil down to a wild a** guess as to when it all falls apart which is what everyone really wants to know.

    I’ve seen in your YouTube channel that you are/were a subscriber to Suspicious 0bservers as well. Haven’t checked lately after seeing both of the videos earlier this year you’d posted on flying. Ben’s on my daily viewing schedule too.

  3. If the Corporate tax reduction results in Billions of dollars returning to the US, it would seem to be a bonanza for the stock market with that much money coming home. Banking & financial stocks would seem to be a beneficiary. Also, it would increase tax revenues since taxes would have to be paid but at a lower rate.

  4. (Round steak was $2.48 in 2002 while more recently it’s running $5.22 per pound, but damned if I can find that market. Still, that’s a 110.4% increase in price,)

    We got around that by purchasing a cow once a year. about thirty plus percent waste.
    ended up after trucking to a locker locker expense and the cow end cost was 2.34 per pound steaks roasts hamburger etc.. of course hot dogs is extra but I don’t have them make them out of the cow.