The Rally We Warned Of? Housing to Follow

by

This will sound paradoxical as hell.  When can a stock market rally be bad?  I mean really, really (potentially) bad?

The answer is when it becomes part of the “last train out” before a global spasm of collapse which we figure will get organized in Europe within a month, that’s when!

Let’s see what the longer view is, right?  As of the close Monday, here’s how things looked in our long wave economics view of life:

Which sort of answers the rally question, doesn’t it?  We think the report later today (H.6 Money Stocks) will reveal more of the larger trends.

If we are replaying the yellow circled area of economic history (yellow, left is 1929 track), the present (yellow, right) THEN the bad news might well be that a bit of sideways action – until as long as a week or three – could be coming.

In an Elliott wave view of things?  Perhaps like this:

We seem (based on early futures only) to be trying to turn at the open which leads to our “kiss the trend” but for how long before heading down again?

We will patiently let the market-action make the call.  Since we are pretty-much agnostic – not caring if the market goes up OR down – the decisions are simplified.  In with a bullish fund going up, in with a bearish fund going down.  Most of the time, until a strong move is evident, we drink ice water and watch as large flocks of sheep are sheared of their savings and winnings.

Econ Data

Didn’t I tell you to expect strong numbers to fuel a rally because at least in the short-haul, the market might look at “all news is good” – even if around the edges Europe is in a world of hurt with a cold, dark winter coming?

“New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, down two consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $272.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed a 0.1 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $92.0 billion.

Not exactly breathtaking.

Nukes:  Stakes are Rising

Military affairs contributor warhammer checks in with something to keep in the back of your head:

“RE:  Putin’s recent nuke threats:  the U.S. recently developed and fielded Sub launched low-yield, i.e. tactical nukes.

US Deploys New Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead – Federation Of American Scientists (fas.org)

Some see this as dangerous escalation, assuming the U.S. could or would use low-yield nukes first in battle.  The key point that these folks, mainly journalists, often miss is that the U.S. has publicly and officially adopted a policy to never be the first nation to launch a nuke, tactical or strategic.  Nukes are intended only for defense of the U.S., our territories and our allies when placed under direct strategic attack. True, Ukraine is not a NATO ally, but is considered a strategic partner and a victim of armed aggression.

The low-yield submarine nukes recently approved by congress were primarily fielded as a deterrent, primarily against Russia, but China and others are also in the mix.  Deterrence logic – not an oxymoron – establishes a ‘respond in kind’ capability, where if an adversary attacks full scale strategic, America and her allies respond with a full ‘big boom’ salvo.  Low-yield nukes allow similar response-in-kind to low yield battlefield nuke use.  While current strategic nukes can be ‘dialed-down’ to lower yields, their launch platforms, e.g., long range bombers, naval carrier battle groups, ICBMs & SLBMs, could all lead Russia to believe the U.S. retaliated to their low-yield nukes with high yield city busting strategic nukes.  Then the real fireworks would begin.

If Russia uses the argument that it is defending sovereign territory by using tactical nukes in Ukraine, its argument is invalid, in that the territory allegedly being defended was recently conquered by invading Russian forces and unlawfully annexed.  Having the ability to respond to the increasingly real threat of low-yield nukes restricts Putin’s ability to use his low-yield nukes without serious repercussions to Russian forces.  Or so deterrence theory logic goes.

If Putin does not have both oars in the water, he may pursue a flawed strategy of ‘one upmanship,’ escalating nuke yields with each subsequent salvo, much like a desperate poker player raising the game despite having a bad hand, hoping to get the other players to fold.  That strategy could well end up in a very dark place when it comes to the use of nukes.  Hopefully one or more oligarchs stop Putin before he gets to that point.  But as the late, great Green Bay Packers Superbowl winning coach and Hall of Famer Vince Lombardi once said: “Hope is not a strategy.  Fear is not an option.”

The thinking person’s issue is how soon EVERYTHING blows up globally.  Because there is a case that an Economic Depression could be viewed as a winnable event.  Whereas a nuclear war is not particularly winnable.

However, our local assessments are not the ones that matter.  Since backed into a corner, Vlad Putin may think a close-in, SLBM/cruise missile attack on U.S. retaliatory forces might be thought of as “winnable.”

Sober-minded people would all opt for the Economic Depression versus nuclear holocaust, but sadly, entrenched interests with agendas aren’t consulting out here in the peanut gallery.

Putin has dealt himself a strong hand in Europe and he may be waiting winter to break up NATO for him. Many questions surround Nord Stream pipelines supplying gas from Russia suffers ‘unprecedented’ damage and starts leaking | Daily Mail Online.  Will he firm up annexed Ukraine territory with plans expected out Friday?

Foreign policy buffs have not yet figured out his obvious play.  As evidenced by reports like Europe’s Unsolved Energy Puzzle | Foreign Affairs.  We don’t see a happy ending short of a negotiated defanged NATO and a Ukraine buffer as being acceptable to Russian leaders.  Nukes lite merely sharpens the small teeth.

But back to point, EU Commission says premature to speculate on cause of Russian gas pipeline leaks | Reuters.  So, we won’t.  (Or will we?)

Crypto collapse notes:  Do Kwon says he’s not hiding amid manhunt after UST, luna collapse (cnbc.com).  Then we see where Bankrupt crypto lender Voyager to sell assets to Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.  Toss in BTC at $20,284 which confirms an equities rally, and let the fun begin.  Remember, there’s nothing like the lure of free money: Solar-Powered Bitcoin Miner Aspen Creek Raises $8M Despite Bear Market.

Fall Home Improvement gold mine:  Seen in cratering lumber prices over here.  Should be in the home centers within weeks.  Cheap lumber!  Yippee!

Tampa Slammah

300,000 have been ordered evacuated from the path of hurricane Ian:

OK, maybe not the weekend for Disneyworld, then?

Majors and Minors

(With a few flats for good measure…)

Aging in place:  Being unhappy or lonely speeds up aging — even more than smoking, study warns (studyfinds.org)

Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving bunch: America’s Richest Tech Billionaires Have Lost $315 Billion In The Past Year (forbes.com)

Shop until you drop Replay time:  Amazon Is Hosting a Second ‘Prime Day.’ Here’s What You’ll Want to Know. (businessinsider.com)

Around the Ranch

Workable weather at last!  I have been waiting four months for the weather to cool down to reasonable so I can build (rebuild) some decks and get on with things.

Finally, the weather will be dropping into the low/mid 80’s – kind of like winter in Hilo, Hawaii for a while.

New Starlink box is supposed to show up today, I’ll have more on that tomorrow on the Peoplenomics side.

For now, off to watch how the tape plays ahead – and just after – the Case Shiller Housing numbers.  Then M1 and M2 this afternoon which promises to be insightful, as well.

Write when you get rich (or are just pissed),

George@Ure.net

73 thoughts on “The Rally We Warned Of? Housing to Follow”

  1. I would like Warhammer to now put himself in the position of being a retired Russian officer and tell us how his opinion is flawed – re: the reacqusition of the eastern Russian Ukraine territory after being terrorized since 2014 by their own Nazi directed country. Putin isn’t a dummy – who’s to say he’ll used low yield nukes – if he wanted this over quickly he wouldn’t nuke the Ukraine and risk escalation – I say he’d go for all the marbles and decimate every Nato and US defense positions he could – wait for the mistake and let China mop up taking Taiwan and Australia …… love to hear that point of view …..

  2. “C”:
    I have quietly sat here for months and did not respond to you and other liberal leftists throw your trolling jabs, but you have gone a bridge too far. You and Mark are quite the liberal tag team. Your hate for Trump shows through.

    ‘When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.’ That quote from Edmund Burke in ‘Thoughts on the Cause of Present Discontents’ has, in typical use, come to be delivered as, ‘The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.’ The way to lose our freedoms is for good men to fail to speak up.

    Based upon your posts, I always thought that “C” stood for C omrade or C ommunist or C ommie, or the missing ‘c’ in Demo_rat.

    You previously posted: “You can throw your monkey poop at Mark all day, Govt laws and regulations are saving lives (many need improved or enacted where non-existent). Period”. Whatever that disgusting statement was supposed to mean? I didn’t even include the most disgusting part! Mark made the following statement: “The only people that believe Trump are powerless, a bit deranged, and penniless.” What an asinine statement and other people on this site wrote about it. I didn’t until now. And since you chose to support it, it shows that you don’t know squat. I assure you, that people that believe Trump are not all Powerless, Deranged, or Penniless! Nor are they taking meds as you posted. Nor are MAGA people what Biden in his Hitler RED Speech in Philly said, “Republicans do not respect the Constitution, nor the Rule of Law.” What a complete liar!

    In the same post “C”, you stated: “Sorry, WTHS, olfart, et al, but CA’s red flag laws have already prevented 58 mass shootings.” You quoted that great school by Sacramento, that liberal bastion of teaching young commies and socialists: the University of California Davis. A horse race if UC Davis, UC Berkley, or UC Santa Cruz takes the cake for raising more Commies. I know a thing or two about mathematics, but you stated that Red Flag Laws stopped 58 threatened mass shootings. Who is differentiating between threat and an action except looney birds trying to sell their agendas? And how do we know the threat was real, or some family member or friend pissed off at someone and calling the cops? How in the hell can you quantify something that has not happened and say Red Flag laws stopped 58 mass shootings? It is totally subjective. It is like saying immigrants don’t raise crime statistics. Just like the climate change liars change baselines and numbers to try and justify that individual human actions are causing climate change. More California horseshit put out by idiots like Newsome! Red flag laws are just another way to chip away at the Bill of Rights. And there is no way in hell anyone can say they stopped a non-event that did not happen! The people that understand math and statistics would see numerous inconsistencies in the suppositions posited in the UC Davis article you posted:
    https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/californias-red-flag-law-utilized-58-threatened-mass-shootings.

    It is with note that you often quote other bastions of lies against freedom, and individual liberty such as The New York Times (owned by the same commie family since the late 1800s whose articles often mirrored Workers Daily), the leftist Washington Post, Al Jazeera, the Daily Beast, and the L.A. Times. Not to mention CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNBC….all containing your favorite letter “C” of which much of their reporting is Commie Propaganda.

    And last week you blasted me yet again when I was discussing how Europe is fed up with Muslim rapists and immigrants and are voting Conservative. I used the example that the senile idiot in the White House you support, has mandated that all our military get the EXPERIMENTAL unproven vaccines and boosters that have not gone through years of testing like other drugs, but let 2 million illegals into the country without taking them. You challenged the number when I said 10’s of thousands in the military have refused the vaccine are going to be discharged or will retire early from the military. I was even using one of your often questionable sources: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-military-troops-discharged/

    And you used Military Times to also challenge the number. They have to follow the propaganda line of the military command which is mandating vaccines while giving the drug companies $billions. Check out some real facts which are NOT an “Imagined number” as you stated: https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2021/12/03/over-23500-airmen-and-guardians-say-no-to-covid-vaccines-as-final-deadline-passes/

    FYI…reservists and National Guard are military, and can be called up to fight a war anytime, as was proven many times under past presidents. The Coast Guard Academy that is not under the DOD, but under Mayorkis DOHS, just kicked out 7 great students, including blacks, females, and elected cadet leaders because they dismissed their claims of religious freedoms guaranteed under the 1st Amendment to the Constitution to avoid having to take the shots.

    Arguing about a number under 10s of thousands is incorrect and ignored the point of my post…people are fed up with immigration of criminals and the rapes and crimes and the vote reflected it in Sweden, and now Italy. That is what liberals are trained to do, change the narrative, change the point of discussion, and bring in their liberal incorrect biased point of view to deflect from the real facts.

    As I wrote about Sweden, and was proven correct yesterday when Georgia Meloni was elected Italy’s first female Prime Minister, a conservative nationalist. The globalist agenda is losing steam. She ran on a Conservative ticket to get rid of immigration, and won big time.

    So “C” quit taking cheap incorrect shots at people. I wouldn’t use mathematics unless you are especially prepared to quantify and explain your position. Especially where statistics or advanced mathematics are involved! I don’t take shots at you and your Leftist, Socialist, Communist, Islamic sources of propaganda. As I instructed my son, never start a fight, but if someone swings at you come back swinging hard. No mas!

    You also wrote: “duh Homer, (in your state of denial), did you miss the Corporate Tax reform, action on wealthy tax cheats, lower Medicare drug prices, cheaper electricity, millions of clean energy jobs, environmental justice money, and all of this dramatically lowering the deficit (unlike the 2017 Republican tax bill)”. “Maybe change your meds, then your meltdowns won’t have such a hard landing??”

    You really don’t have a clue what is happening in the real world do you “C” because you are so busy Googling Propaganda spewed out from the leftists. ‘Lower Medicare Drug Prices’ huh?…premiums for Medicare Drug Programs just published are up 50% for next year. Biden and the demo_rats haven’t done anything to lower drug costs yet! More all talk, no walk! ‘Cheaper electricity’ you say? Obviously you are not paying the electric bills, which are up almost double. Natural gas prices are up 472.72% from March 2021 through August 2022-$1.65/MCF to $9.45/MCF. Natural Gas makes electricity to the tune of over 40% of our supply and you say we have cheaper electricity? ‘Clean energy jobs’ in the millions. And is that why California is running out of juice. LOL? Green energy is the biggest bunch of garbage in the world. You cannot make enough. Ask the Germans this winter unless they get the Russkies to turn the gas back on. Angela Merkel was a German plant by the Commies to make Germany totally dependent on Russia by shutting down nuclear. And to completely destroy their military. ‘Environmental justice money’? What a crock of manure. Who gets that, and who pays it, and what is it? Carbon Credits and Taxes? Naive is an understatement. ‘Lowering the deficit’? Biden and the Democrats are lowering the deficit? Do you really believe that? There has never been more deficit spending than those fools in Washington D.C. are doing. 87,000 IRS agents were used as an offset by the CBO when calculating deficits. Demo_rats constantly lie about numbers because most of the U.S. population is too dumb and believes them. Inflation rates are a prime example-about 50% of actual inflation using CPI-U which is a fraud compared to past ways of calculating inflation so they can keep SS increases down and starve out the Seniors.

    You leftists are hopeless, but most radical leftists are until they actually have to live under a socialist, communist, totalitarian government, and then they eventually wake up in their cold tiny apartments with nothing but soup to eat and then they realize that a Republic is the only form of government that offers opportunity and freedom. When they finally have enough of communism and dictatorship, they realize it is too late. Guns are gone, people are slaves, and opportunities no longer exist. They listened to lying radicals like Hillary, Obama, and the senile Slobberer in Chief!

    • Easy there, Big Fella. Don’t stroke out on us.
      You might check with the Jan 6’ers left twisting in the wind by DT how they feel about Orange Jesus.
      Watch out for the loco weed.

      • I sure as hell don’t want to stroke out Another George. I couldn’t get into the ER because best I remember you would be at the front of the line in the ER since you believe that everyone that took the unapproved vaccines should get to cut in to the front of the line. Loco weed is something that Cattle eat and screws up their systems real bad. Unless you are referring to the other kind which I don’t use.

        January 6th is a total scam created by cops removing barricades and waving people in, embedded FBI instigators, busloads of ANTIFA infiltrators, and a bunch of liberal buffoons running a committee until the election is over and not allowing counter-questioning or witnesses that could dispute a lot of events. What happened to habeas corpus? What happened to a quick and speedy trial? And how many misdeameanors v felonies? Did the same things happen to BLM for burning police cars, police stations, cities and destroying businesses? Hell no and you know it.

      • I think the clot shot has left you with a brain clot,, when were the Jan 6th people arrested and what can an out of office president do? You got TDS, everything is blamed on ‘Orange man bad’.
        It is a RINO/demoncrat disease
        Mr West Texas Horse Sense has many friends here, but anti-george, you miss the mark and Aunt C.
        sober up and maybe some aspirin to dissolve the clot

        drowning victims often drown those who try to rescue them, desperation clouds reasoned thinking.

        Trump is out to save America, JFK tried but the fuckers shot him,,, fuckers is plural as in CIA, Criminals Inner Agency

    • Don’t hold back – tell us what you really think!
      Though you did miss a couple of items – all-in-all.., not too bad. Well done.

      • “You missed a couple items – all-in-all.., not too bad.”

        I agree D with that statement so much that I’m super astounded at all the wisdom within it. Wow, well said. I was speechless yesterday after I read those words D. All I could say was “Yes.” Those words framed as such, are the wisdom of the ages. I has to take a step back and think about a reply. Please note: there has only been a few times in my life even on here where I have read a thought framed in such a way that I was “just wow!” So much is in that statement if you really think about the words and how they are framed and sequenced. Even the syllables flow in a powerful way.

        After long consideration and Meditation, Here is my reply young lady.

        “I believe kids oughta stay kids
        As long as they can
        Turn off the screen, go climb a tree
        Get dirt on their hands

        I believe we gotta forgive and make amends
        ‘Cause nobody gets a second chance
        To make new old friends

        I believe in working hard for what you’ve got
        Even if it don’t add up to a hell of a lot

        I believe most people are good
        And most Mama’s oughta qualify for sainthood
        I believe most Friday nights
        Look better under neon or stadium lights

        I believe you love who you love
        Ain’t nothing you should ever be ashamed of
        I believe this world ain’t half as bad as it looks
        I believe most people are good

        I believe them streets of gold
        Are worth the work
        But I’d still wanna go
        Even if they were paved in dirt.”

        On to grab 18 gears on a dirt road. Cowboy up!

        Truly I am Blessed and Highly Fortunate! D’lynn, You are as well!

        4 D,

        Que: ~ Most people are good ~

        https://youtu.be/liqktLC7xR0

        Luke Bryan

      • You actually Made my eyes leak D’lynn. At the beauty of those words. Well done in deed.

        A long time ago. Clif High said something simple framed in such a way that was super powerful to me.

        “I and I, feed your head.”

        Which means so much if you really think about it. I and = One and the same. I andi or eye Andy or aye Andy.

        That is kinda wisdom that flows only from THE DUDE.

        Like your statement you wrote. There is truly so much within it.

        Thank you so much D. I am really honored.

      • Fuck after reading that statement yesterday, I realized ‘all my problems are luxury problems’. Hahaha so much gratitude.

        Have a wonderful week.

      • I mean my biggest problem I have today is trying to figure out which play boy centerfold to marry. There is two who want to marry me, like yesterday. Both of them absolutely sweet and treat me like a King. Both of them former playboy centerfolds. I have a date with one on Friday but that dumb girl was so tender with me and her cupcakes and her smell I don’t know if I will go out with the other one.

        A while back about 8 to 10 months ago I found a old, From 1984, Betty and Veronica comic book. Laying in the middle of airport way at 2am. I stopped and picked it up because i knew it was a “finger print of God”. So it seems, I should go read it again. It was about Betty and Veronica trying to win Archie’s heart. And it seems it is so in my own life now.

        I know I’m a fork in the road. I been Here at it a little while. And both those girls are working overtime to trying pin me down and I’ve been single for a long time. And I can’t have them both. If I can’t pick I will loose both of them. So I need to pick. And which ever one I go with will decide my destiny and path I take.

        I called a few buddies and they said, Oh my F God! Are you really bitching about which playboy centerfold you should choose? I don’t know anyone who has one former centerfold after them trying to marry then and pin them down and play house let alone two. Pick one and shut up about it. I’m going home to my fat wife, watching TV and hopefully she doesn’t fart on me tonight.

        So, I will choose this weekend. One knows I’m going out with the other and she isn’t happy about it. But she trusts that I will choose her. Because she smells like sunshine and cotton candy, and she is so tender and loving towards me.

        So I don’t know how this will all affect the rest of the world. Because my life is in most cases, a reflection of the greater schema on the world scale. Like George’s too. Atr is my favorite section on his sight. Because it tells me more about what’s ahead in the world than anything else he writes.

        Same with my read of language of creation around me. Now I’m on a job #1973 and hauling to a Lake. Center plate at the musium of Flight.

        1973 reminds me of Nixon. And taking the US off the gold standard.

        Best be about it.

      • Hoss,
        My bad. When you started listing all the words that started with “C”, I had a Sesame Street flashback.
        Don’t worry. I won’t be in the ER – I’ll be dead from the vax-caused graphene oxide poisoning that you predicted for me. You do believe your posts, don’t you?

      • Another George, not everything is about you while your about everything.

        If you could have seen tbe smoke in Seattle from the forest fires and the night sky’s which looked like Mars Here for months recently? And the orange full moon?

        Then you might understand. But that is not an open invite to spend the night.

        I have said many many times. I only know a little. THE DUDE knows the stuff I don’t. And HIM and I are good friends.

        You make sure you come back to urbansurvival for another fun adventure in hahahahahahha and hmmm.

    • Another excellent post, WTHS! And I’m honored to have been listed in the same sentence with you by our resident C ommunist, although I surely don’t deserve that honor.

    • Thank you WTHS from a Louisiana neighbor.
      Couldn’t have said it better.

      Always enjoy your comments. Wondered where you’ve been. Take care!

    • Spot on WTHS. As Billy Jeff used to say “I feel your pain”. I have wondered openly at what motivates the lefty trolls who have begun to bless this site with their (lack) wit and (gormless) wisdom. While I understand that, like radical islam, baizuo liberalism is a, dogmatic, intolerant, proselytizing (and increasingly violent) religion, their posts often go beyond simply preaching the gospel of wokeness. Hard to understand what motivates them (Beyond TDS). Especially in light of the complete and total botch President Silver Alert and minions have made of just about everything they have touched these past two years (domestically and internationally). Not much to proselytize about on that record, for sure. So our poor paskudnyak trolls must be driven by something else. What one wonders? Possibly the common liberal presumption that they know better than we hoi polloi how to live our lives (without evidence as the wokesters are want to say)? Perhaps they imagine they are embarked on some great woke crusade? Or just maybe they lead such empty, meaningless lives, devoid of all accomplishment and feelings of self worth, that the only justification for their existence comes from getting a response…any response…to their on-line drivel, here. It strikes me that, at the root, our lefty jabbernowals are engaging in a cyber form of Onanism here at this site with each and every post One imagines them stroking their…*er*… keyboards while ritually repeating “I’m a Social Justice Warrior” in autistic fashion…or some such. Not a pretty picture, that. And one fraught with the perils or errant biological material, to be sure. Would that it was simply enough to tell them that their thoughts on any subject are a matter of complete indifference to the *Normals* who visit this site daily….to read what *George* has to say. And that they would then go back to Democrat Underground or the comments section of the Atlantic or Mother Jones and leave us all in peace. But that would be two much to expect from unhinged, and unselfaware woke zealots. Wouldn’t it?

    • Hats/hajibs(?) off to WTHS! C’s opinions are mere regurgitations of the MSM’s drivel and lies. That they even show up on the computer screens of the mostly independent thinkers here is a waste of pixels.

    • A true FIRST STIKE on the US and GB would effectively knock out our US and GB located STATEGIC ground based nuclear response ability BEFORE it could be used (submarine missiles fired near shore only give a 4 to 7 minute warning from launch before hitting). It would also destroy any nuclear capable Navy ships that were in a major base/port at the same time

      (fwiw our missile subs are all stationed at just 2 bases, Bangor Washington and King’s Bay Georgia)

      (fwiw our nuclear capable Strategic Bombers are located at just 3 basees, Nellis AFB Nevada, Whiteman AFB Missouri, and Barksdale AFB Louisiana)

      (fwiw we only have 3 ICBM field still operating, Malmstrom AFB Montana, Mino AFB North Dakota, Warren AFB Wyoming – each with about 150 missiles)
      https://www.nuclearban.us/us-nuclear-weapons-bases/

      In addition we reportedly keep about 100 gravity nuclear bombs in Europe and have others in storage in the US and other US bases outside the US. Those gravity bombs do NOT need the strategic bombers to be utilized, but the potential carriers of those weaons are NOT intercontinental range platforms. Where those bombs are kept however is an open secret so one would have to assume that those storage places, and the planes that would carry them, would also be targeted in any First Srrike.

      That leaves our old Ace In The Hole … missile submarines … RIGHT?

      Unfortunately … technological advances mean that most likely AT BEST, assuming the Chinese technology works, we will only be able to get off submarine missiles with about 300 warheads IF the other side decides to engage in a first strike, and it could be considerably LESS. (5-6 maximum missile subs at sea at any point in time, often just 4, 24 missiles per sub with up to 14 warheads per missile- call it an average of 8 , expected MISSILE failure rate is 30% … before the NEW anti submarine technology shit even kicks in).

      How good is that NEW anti submarine technology stuff that our missile subs are now going against?

      Good enough that the Chinese believe they can put a deep cruising submarine into something like a 10×10 mile to 20×20 mile box via advanced satellite technology … and can then target that box with nuclear missiles which would create huge overpressures when exploded underwater, possibly enough to at least damage a missile submarine, maybe even sink it.

      MAD is being tossed into the dustbin of history “IF” the Chinese (and Russians) can do that., at least the US version of MAD which REQUIRES an actual blast to happen before we will respond (the Russians /old USSR always had a “Fire On Warning” policy)

      Could they actually pull that off?

      I guess we will only find out if we push the leadership of Russia OR China into a corner such that they believe they HAVE to go the nuclear route in order to survive and they then push THEIR launch buttons.

      At that point in time we would see just how good they are at spotting and killing our underwater missile subs before those submarines can fire anthing more than a token number of the missiles/warheads that they are carrying. The ending score “could” be the US takes 1000 to 2000 hits versus the Russians and Chinese take about 30 to 50 hits each.

      Is taking 30 hits still a “win” for the initiating side? Depends upon how the War Starter is keeping the score. They may believe losing 30 to 50 million and a few cities is worth removing the US from the scene.

      (back a rat into a corner and he will come out fighting even though he knows he will most likely DIE … just something to keep in the back of your mind since we humans are just another animal with animal instincts)

    • Good luck, West Texas.

      I never had any, doing anything WRT trolls, because they get off on trolling itself, and couldn’t care less whether anything they type is true, accurate, moral, or responsibly-sourced. It’s all about getting someone to respond to their post.

      I know one personally.

      I have seen his stuff on Facebook. I have seen him change his POV once people began to agree with him, just so he could continue to troll them. I have watched him make diametrically-opposed arguments, over time, in the same threads, and nobody catch on.

      I’ve never understood. I’m guessing it takes someone who is bored, insecure, very narcissistic, and pompous, arrogant, or self-important without justification.

      Trolls add nothing, and piss people off. Eventually, users go elsewhere, so on sites where I’ve been an Admin, I simply banned them and their IP range, out of hand.

      George’s sites are so unique that I don’t believe anyone would leave to escape a troll. Some folks may eventually stop posting, though.

      Not my problem. I simply refuse to respond to a troll, even when they direct [what appears to be] a reasonable post or question (or a response to one of my posts) toward me.

      Life is too short.

      When I was a young father, I never argued with my children because I refused to lower myself to their level, or cede my authority to elevate them to mine. Similarly, I refuse to waste my time, spanking some Internet brat whose parents failed to do so.

      • If they change their POV when people agree with them it’s probably a good example of the Dead Internet AIs working.

      • “George’s sites are so unique that I don’t believe anyone would leave to escape a troll. Some folks may eventually stop posting, though.”

        Yes, to that second sentence. I find most places that I frequent these days have alot of the same people posting, and many more of us who rarely post due to such behavior. Tbh, I don’t need some asshole trying to rile me up. In the 3D world, there is enough of that going around. I like going to the internet for fact based info and entertainment, and occasionally, those two things mesh beautifully.

      • “If they change their POV when people agree with them it’s probably a good example of the Dead Internet AIs working.”

        Could be… This dead AI dated my ex-wife for nine years.

      • Aunt C, how binary of a post
        anti-self protection, you are always anti-gun, binary thought train you have there missy
        cult? leader Donnie,, now that is some binary belief clinging that you exhibit in your link Quote
        Aunt C what have you done in life to make life better for others? what do you do? or have done?
        I worked in electric generation, suppling reliable, safe and economical electricity to nebraskans, we keep the light on!
        Nebraska’s public power laws are a model that all of America would benefit from, end corporate power ownership, by who’s ownership keep you under their submission. and you are a very submitting person,, your vax is proof
        Imagine an elec company that the voters of an area vote for the elected board of directors for the power company
        https://www.nebraskacityutilities.com/general/public-power-in-nebraska/
        We own it :-)

  3. Two short comments.

    One. I cant fathom the possibility of Putin using any form of nukes in the Ukraine. Is the fallout going to stop at the border ? Once they start flying , it will be “limited” right ? Just a couple here and there. Thats all.

    Two. Mark , and his ilk , are attention seeking internet trolls. Thats it. Im sure hes getting many laughs at how he jerks so many peoples chains on this site. Dont encourage him to stop. He after all is doing the sane people of the world an enormous favor. Please continue Mark , and by the way, who do you say we vote for ?

  4. Disclosure G dude , its whats for salvation..

    Skinwalker Ranch – you see they got a Rabbi in this new season, and not a /redneck- baptist preacher ? Wonder who that idea came from – right Jack? Everything about that and blind frog ranch comes from J.Hearts writing on the matter, everything.

    Its all about that Goo, that black sentient goo. https://youtu.be/FjYfj17WdXk

    rutrow..

  5. phew.. talking about setting oneself up .. my grandsons fiancee and him were going to go looking for a coffee pot a couple weeks ago.. I said hell stick around a few minutes.. I gave them my french press coffee maker.. ( I have an extra one.. ) I collect coffee makers.. and most kitchen gadgets.. and it shocked everyone that I would give away my favorite one.. the one I used all the time when I was working all the time..
    well it didn’t just shock the boss but the rest of the grandkids to.. all my coffee drinkers are hitting me up for one of my coffee makers LOL LOL in my collection..
    well you gave.. one to..
    https://www.amazon.com/Bodum-Columbia-Thermal-French-Stainless/dp/B00005YY9X/ref=sr_1_11?crid=3LUD17H8NWA6V&keywords=starbucks%2Bfrench%2Bpress%2Bcoffee%2Bmaker&qid=1664287130&qu=eyJxc2MiOiIzLjk2IiwicXNhIjoiMy41NyIsInFzcCI6IjMuMzIifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=starbucks%2Bfrench%2Bpress%2Caps%2C112&sr=8-11&th=1

    • If Biden and his ilk would stop eating(and sniffing), it would make at least a small contribution to the available food supply for the rest of us.

    • I wonder if he will put Hunter in charge of the weight loss program and Kamala in charge of explaining it all. She is an expert at “word salads.”

      • OTFLMAO…..
        I have heard that meth, cocaine and a variety of other drugs was a weight loss drug lol lol lol..
        Although marijuana will increase potato chip, and cupcake sales lol

  7. “Some see this as dangerous escalation, assuming the U.S. could or would use low-yield nukes first in battle. The key point that these folks, mainly journalists, often miss is that the U.S. has publicly and officially adopted a policy to never be the first nation to launch a nuke, tactical or strategic.”

    https://youtu.be/MOkl2XgZlw0
    https://youtu.be/lSFBd7g-oq0

    I truly believe that this whole mess could have been avoided the same way we avoided the cuban missile crises… then we did everything we could to push them into a corner without any means of de escalation. not only bankrupting the USA and the dollar bill and euro pound etc.. even more… if your not scared your not paying attention even if it doesn’t escalate beyond this point of no return the financial mess will destroy us .. What I am surprised over.. is no one has gone down in the dumbs yet..

  8. Just a small thought for Warhammer and others: If the US does deploy submarine launched low yield tactical nukes, how would Putin and others know that any launch was a tactical nuke rather than a strategic SLBM? I’m sure that this has been considered, but I don’t see an easy way to convince an enemy that such a thing is low yield before detonation. That could be a real problem if the decision tree involved launch on warning!

    • “how would Putin and others know that any launch was a tactical nuke rather than a strategic SLBM?”

      they wouldn’t.. and I believe they put their whole nuclear defense system on automatic so if they did then it wouldn’t make any difference if they did or not.. ..
      IF he did and it senses a missile heading towards Russia then it will launch a counter strike on its own. If how I understand the system and there was more than one then it would launch an all out counter attack.

    • If it goes to that level.. most of the nuclear countries have auto defense setups.. and when and if it does escalate to that level.. we all will feel the affects of this.. and depending on if they had gotten the club k defense missile systems in the country and sitting idle at some storage facility.. it will be hell on earth.. and come at us in the twinkling of an eye..

    • No no – Warhammered was talking about those ANFLO tactical nukes like was used in port of Beruit or on top of the A/C units in basement twin tpowers-stovepipe! Scheeese!

      perhaps a worksheet/flashcard splaining how hot new nukes burn – they dont leave any “noticeable” radition behind..cell phone cameras pick up the energetic- pixelated sparklies – telltale sign of nuke detonation – seen in Yemen, Syria, Trashganastan.

      Did someone say SDV delivered Limpets ? N1&N2 – recall manishwomen- noodles noodleman saying “Russsia invades the kraine, N2 No Go !” cowinky,no?

    • Low yield nukes are being placed on turbine engined sub-launched cruise missiles and once deployed, remain in the low-to-mid atmospheric regions. SLBMs are rocket powered and can reach the fringes of outer space during their launch profiles. Orbiting early warning satellites and ground radar defenses can easily determine which is which by their heat signatures, but cruise missiles are much trickier to acquire over an active battle field, even with a kick-ass surface to air missile system radar like the one on an SA-10, as they employ terrain masking and low altitude flight profiles.

  9. The Italians have had enough!

    Here’s why the elites and globalists are freaking out about Giorgia Meloni’s victory in Italy’s elections last night, below is the transcript:

    Why is the family an enemy? Why is the family so frightening? There is a single answer to all these questions. Because it defines us. Because it is our identity. Because everything that defines us is now an enemy for those who would like us to no longer have an identity and to simply be perfect consumer slaves.

    And so they attack national identity, they attack religious identity, they attack gender identity, they attack family identity. I can’t define myself as: Italian, Christian, woman, mother. No. I must be citizen x, gender x, parent 1, parent 2. I must be a number. Because when I am only a number, when I no longer have an identity or roots, then I will be the perfect slave at the mercy of financial speculators. The perfect consumer…[But] we will defend it.

    We will defend God, country, and family. Those things that disgust people so much. We will do it to defend our freedom. Because we will never be slaves and simple consumers at the mercy of financial speculators.

    That is our mission.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/italy-new-leader-giorgia-melonis-speech-new-world-order-attack-national-identity-attack-religious-identity-attack-gender-identity-attack-family-identity/

  11. When the gas line breaks it’s time to leave the party.

    Look at your electric bill and notice how much you pay per kWh. I think mine is around .17 cents each not including recoveries.

    Europe will be paying $10.00 each. Turn on an LED, there goes a dollar. Every time the ‘fridge kicks-on there goes $19.00.

    G was right with the solar.

    Get a stack of food before the Middies.

  12. I just finished my starlink install. From my location (mid MT) it needs an unobstructed view to the north and just a bit east and about 60 degrees from horizontal. 128 Mbps down, 21 Mbps up, 33ms latency. I think the quality of the equipment is very good and a snap to set up. Gen 2 equipment has no native ethernet port for our network. So you have to buy their ethernet adapter. I also bought the pivot mount. Easypeasy.

  13. The markets had a brief rally this morning., but have since turned around and the Dow is down over 200 points. All indexes are now down.., except one.., at it is ‘fantastical’. The Wilshire 5,000 index is up.., over 2,500 points ! [over 7%] What in the actual f__k !

  14. All eight indexes that I follow have turned south and are down this morning – except for the Wilshire total market index. It has spiked upward by over 7%.., 2,500 points. I can find no comment, or news as to why.

  15. Holy Crap! It seems that the Nordstream pipelines were obviously and deliberately sabotaged. One can be an accident, but two breaks at once at different places is certainly not. I felt there was a problem with navigation when I first heard of an airplane hitting a tower, but the second one clued me into the real nature of what was happening on 9/11/01! Somebody did it, and unless it’s a true false flag against America, then we’re the prime suspect. We have the means, motive and opportunity to eliminate the pipeline and freeze Europe. I don’t like saying that, but the Bidenistas and Obamanables are in no way true Americans. I’d say the odds are 70% that we did it(just a guess). This guy is ugly and has a disgusting cigarette in his mouth, but he speaks well:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6IIwltTM4Q

    If anyone can read or translate Greek:

    https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-se-trochia-pagkosmias-sygkrousis-eidikes-dynameis-erixan-vomves-ston-rosiko-agogo-nord-stream-1-proklithike-seismos-apo-tis-ekrixeis-deite-vinteo/

    IMHO, this is a deliberate escalation(by whomever) designed to foment world war as soon as possible!

      • Nordstream maybe isn’t the only thing leaking? DW says Germany is keeping 2 nuclear plants going past their original December31st planned shutdown. Reuters says one of them is leaking and hasn’t supplied the regulators with a planned October power output yet.

        By the way, interesting time for the Starlink to go live in the domestic USA…

        What kind of rap is going on? Let’s go with Pusha T –
        “Infrared”

    • An unintended pressure surge could cause problems at multiple locations. If they are on a restart after being down for an extended period and they have corrosion issues…
      They won’t know for sure until the repair crew goes down, unless someone caught the sub and torpedo with listening instruments.

    • In a global conflict: Special forces dropped 100 TNT bombs on Russian Nord Stream pipelines – an earthquake erupted!

      The Biden oracle – Russian retaliation is expected

      Energy developments worldwide trigger the blast of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 and 2. According to information, a group of submarine missions from an unknown country planted bombs in the thick steel pipes covered!

      Swedish seismologist Bjorn Lund even said at least 100 kilograms of TNT should have been used for these explosions!

      Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR) stressed that the earthquake caused by the Nord Stream explosions was about as big as the one caused by!

      German gas network operators said Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have “It has been a big rift, they have opened at a great distance.”.

      There is a gas leak at a diameter of 1 km in the Baltic Sea.

      The pipelines are over. They are not going to work until the end of the year and probably never again. The damage is huge, as WarNews247 reported this morning

      https://vivaldi.com/features/translate/

  17. Clearly nobody posting here will eat the bugs.

    Papa duck gets the contract. The ducklings learn a new way. Interesting take.

    September 16, 2022

    1,000 Australian Schools Introduce ‘Eco-Friendly’ Chips Made From Edible Insects

    Australian school children have been offered chips dusted with a cricket protein made by the edible bug company Circle Harvest.

    The company says the products are helping the planet address man-made climate change.

    The Western Sydney company began selling its insect chips to 1,000 schools this year and expects to increase this number sixfold before mid-2023.

    https://www.nationaltimesaustralia.com/lifestyle/1000-australian-schools-introduce-eco-friendly-chips-made-from-edible-insects/

  19. No sooner did Mr. Biden personally present the National Humanities Medal to Sir Elton at the White House than Mr. Putin signed a decree Monday making Edward Snowden a dual Russian-American citizen. Apparently the busy Mr. Putin does not plan to personally meet the fugitive who will not be drafted for the “special military operation”. It seems 74 other “foreigners” got the nod in the same decree for Russian citizenship.

    By the way, telegrams coming in via Russia’s state media RG housed at #24 (rus. to be awesome) “Truth Street”, Moscow, usurping George’s “M1” report. The battle theater has left paved roads behind and donated American 14,000kg personel carriers are supposedly mired in rasputitsa/mud. Fine opportunity to learn Ukrainian swear words.

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