The “news budget” this week is pretty interesting: Consumer Prices tomorrow, Housing Starts Thursday, but just more FedSpeak on the rubber-chicken circuit Friday.
The BIG event Friday will be the Trump Inauguration ceremony in front of the U.S. Capitol.
High noon, Trump will be sworn in by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts .
Just prior, at 11:30 AM, Trump will give his Inaugural Speech.
OK, that’s what’s cooking this week. Other than fearing that “the message is in the media” with the television series Designated Survivor, the markets don’t have much to do except twiddle their thumbs. Or – more properly – churn some accounts.
What I would expect – and this holds even in my modest speech submission isn’t picked up – is that markets will back down a bit this week. Futures were down more than a hundred earlier and then clawed back to down 50.
We’ve talked about the psychology of markets many times. Just like we get “pre-holiday” run-ups, we get different flavors of market performance depending on the hype surrounding an event.
Take BREXIT last June (and still nothing really being done as old-guard British government is as deaf as ours (used to be) when comes to Will of the People. Markets tanked on news of the vote.
Was it justified? Well, hell no. British markets on the Financial Times index dropped to 5,923 just ahead of the vote and talk about how it would cause an implosion of Europe.
Even heading for a 1% drop possibly today, the FTSE Index was at 7,268 when I looked. This means British stocks climbed 22.6% even though the vote “went badly” for the Brussels sprouts. They should have such votes more often.
Clearly, this was an example of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event.
Here in “The Colonies” remember the fear running around before the election?
The S&P was down around 2,085. Friday of last week we closed at 2,274. So again: sell the rumor (the election fears) and buy the news (Trump) and sit back and count your dough: up 9% since Fearful Election Outcome Day.
People are drawn to Negativity, for some reason.
I swore off the stuff a long time ago, even though it did cost me a lot of money to do so. I sleep better not worrying about aliens landing (*from space, not Mexico), a mega-subduction event (oooh – Big fear seller, that one), and I’ve stayed patiently on the data and watching the Doom Porn crowd get rich.
We’re much better off, I figured, offering a more balanced look at the future.
Yes, EMP could go off any time.
Yes, Obama is flooding the country with people who shouldn’t be here without deeper processing.
Yes, North Korea could go South.
Yes, China could take Taiwan by force.
Yes we are in debt, but it really is manageable.
That’s why my suggested Inaugural Speech was more upbeat than down.
Fear-mongers and Doom-Porners would have you believe Obama will seize power in a last-minute coup d’ etat. How many times has that happened? Try zero.
“Oh no…they won’t allow Trump to become president and they will install Hillary to replace Obama and….and….and….”
It gets pretty breathless and pretty stupid.
I’m a “get rich slowly” kind of guy. I don’t panic because in panic lays disaster and death. Think flying an airplane is a place for the timid and panic-prone? Duh.
Do you think the Buffetts and Gates and Ellisons and Bezos’ of this world panic?
No. They have a vision of the future and they simply go build it.
So pardon me if we don’t panic.
If anything happens to Trump I would suspect the U.S. Intelligence agencies who are about to be put in check/neutered.
But let’s be optimistic for a minute.
Could the market be setting up for one last blast into the record books?
But that idea won’t come from the Doom-Porners. It MIGHT, however, come from a colleagial email that discusses a long-standing Gann Angle forecast (circa 2008) that argues the Dow should head well-over 21,000 on January 20th – Friday – Inaugural Day- and then collapse into the Greater Depression from there.
We shall see, but we shall not be panicked.
As in flying, the main job is to remain in control – because if you don’t, you will crash for sure. In context of this morning’s discussion that means of your personal financial positions should be managed with equal stoicism.
While the fear-mongers are selling their wares, please take a moment to consider the other side of things.
What IF Trump’s speech “Hits one out of the Park?”
I get such a kick out of Trump-bashers: Blind to the fact that a huge national infrastructure revitalization and then off to space we go program could literally explode the market up 10-20 percent in a matter of months.
Yet here we sit with the U.K. Telegraph’s latest T-Bash “How many times does Trump need to say ‘great’ to make his inaugural address the ‘greatest’ ever?”
How many times does Safeway advertise a message? Toyota? Ford? And what goes better with repetition than Coke?
Even more laughable is the arrogance of the British when questioning America on anything. They quickly forget who had to bail them out of World Wars.
I did enjoy seeing them do a word-frequency study – the same approach we use in our Nostracodeus news analytics software to steer the way ahead.
So that’s where we are…sell the rumors time.
The only news this week will be from 11:30 Until 12:10 Eastern time.
After that, on we go.
Don’t exclaim anything stupid like “Great!” because that might offend the T-bashers.
Unless than Gann Angle report works out. But I’m still banking on March or July for the high. It doesn’t look ready, just yet. Still, we’ll be following our Peoplenomics Oscillator and doing what it says.
As of today – even if the market were to drop 300 points on the Dow – it would remain calmly bullish. Which really pisses off the Doom crowd.
Reports WTOP out of D.C. “Unprecedented threats drive Secret Service inauguration security.”
Just between us, IF (God-forbid) anything did happen… I would hold the T-bashers and Hillary supporters who didn’t close ranks in a show of national unity for fostering a national divide we didn’t need to go through. Not to mention the kind of divisiveness that makes crazy people do unspeakable acts.
Ure would be pissed.
One country, under God… remember that pin-heads? No, democrats are doing TWO Countries…going “wide the divide” as they didn’t solve anything in 8-years – made up laws on the fly – and then piss and moan when America wised-up. Good God…what have we become?
(But wait! There’s more…)
CNN’s Latest T-Bash
Try this headline: “CNN/ORC Poll: Confidence drops in Trump transition.”
Not surprised: Let me count the ways…
1. Trump dissed CNN as fake news recently.
2.CNN leaned very heavily pro-Clinton.
So pardon me while I take a chill pill and don’t get too excited.
With Trump’s tweets getting more views than CNN…well, I’d be worried, too.
Wait…who can stop that talk? CNBC, that’s who.