Election Year Denial is in full swing today, brothers and sisters. Put your hands on the quote monitor and gimme a Hallelujah!.
And we have been riding it up since February while the worrywarts scream.
My friend Robin Landry up in Oklahoma sees the market very similarly to how I’m sizing it up.
Ure’s truly is long the QQQs and just waiting for things to get moving again. Our brainamp.xls program (for Peoplenomics subscriber, see the top of the Master Index page to download) has some shorter-term targets where we will “get off this pony” but we can save those for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.
In the meantime, though, there are two competing wave counts going on.
One of them – which the biggest name in Wave Theory seems to like – is that a big pullback – down to the 1,840 S&P level will be along before we “go to the moon” and then have our disaster.
But we may not need such a pullback.
As Robin noted yesterday, the Monthly MACD (explanation) has already crossed to the upside.
And our work in Peoplenomics says we had that big wave 1 (or the larger V) up from February, then we pulled back – and now we seem to have completed – or nearly so – the smaller 1 of the 3 of the V.
At any rate Ure is on the long side, since I pulled the plug on my short position (profitably but only enough for “tip money”) on our recent trip.
Today, we are in waiting mode. There should be a powerful update evolving in coming weeks but that all depends on how things work out in the bond market.
My pet theory continues to be that as bonds find a bottom, there will be people who will lose faith in bonds as being the road to long-term riches.
When this happens, stocks will start to soak up money and head for the sky. The reason being that government is still printing money like crazy to paper-over the Federal Debt.
And in a funny way, the Fed directly benefits from the printing process since the Fed has all those paper bags full of paper assets left over from the Housing mess.
Since most of that is based on real estate, and inflation will drive up the underlying home prices, the Fed in a sense is holding an appreciating asset (wasn’t it something like $4 trillion?_) that will go up as inflation comes along…
This is not financial advice of course. We’s just having a chit-chat. Reading the ticker and all. But it’s an interesting thing to ponder. While – that is – we study the latest breaking economic news…
Productivity And Labor Costs
Hot off the servers over at the Labor Department:
“Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.5-percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.2 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
From the second quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016, productivity decreased 0.4 percent, the first four-quarter decline in the series since a 0.6-percent decrease in the second quarter of 2013. (See table A.) Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2016, reflecting a 1.5-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.5-percent decline in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 2.1 percent over the last four quarters. (See tables A and 2.)
This YUGE question for American b’ness is this: Do workers have a right to unlimited phone and texting access and FB and Twitter and Tinder… AT WORK?
The markets sized this up with a yawn. Futures are still up 20 on the Dow when I looked.
Which means in the mind of Wall Street “It could have been worse…”
Yeah…sure…but this is three quarters in a row. So here’s the prediction: More limits on unlimited bandwidth access and device time at work will be along.
Check with Chinese factory workers on this…
What News Matters?
We again have to put on our money-colored glasses this morning to put the world into proper perspective, since yes, everything is a business model.
We see, for example, that the Amazon/Washington Post says there’s nothing to worry about – in a round-about way – over Hillary Clinton’s health.
On the other hand, Donald Trump is beginning to paint the current presidential high-bidder as the tool of more government regulations and higher taxes.
We don’t expect that Trumps return to point on message will result in an instant poll swing, but the odds are good that the old Nixonian “silent majority” doesn’t want more immigrants – especially Obama’s 10,000 from Syria – and doesn’t want additional regulations for the small business owners down on Main Street.
The poll effects – if any – won’t been seen for a week or two.
Meantime, Trump’s campaign will no doubt get some serious traction off the echoes of Benghazi – now that the relatives of two victims there have sued Hillary for her actions/inactions while at State.
Claiming wrongful death and defamation, it will be interesting to see whether Clinton can simply “talk over” the problem – which is the Clinton style. Deny, deny, deny…
More Clinton Magic
Did someone put a couple of hits of windowpane in my coffee, or something?
Fryin’ Ryan? Thanks fer Tryin’
A Note to Revolutionary Voters
The question up in Wisconsin today is how much of a challenge will Paul (the turncoat) Ryan face in his home district?
As we have mentioned many times, our opinion of Ryan is lower than dirt because he didn’t challenge the Obama budget, didn’t stop the import of unvetted Syrians, hasn’t stopped the border influx here in Texas…and hasn’t done much of anything but act like a Democrat in sheep’s clothing.
If I were in Wisconsin and voting, I’d go for Nehlen, since he’s not so invested in the special interests and hasn’t got a piss-poor track record to defense. Like on trade, and so forth.
That’s the thing, you see: The folks in Washington have invented a kind of intellectual “bubble” of logic that doesn’t need to be used in the real world.
Trump is getting around to this point well, too: Once you move out of Washington-Think, America is only held to past bad decision-making and policies by our own “paper hand-cuffs” which is all the gibberish and hornswoggling that goes on.
The end result is you take a once well-meaning guy like Ryan, put him into the bubble of Washington-Think, simmer for 8 years and he’s now an Obama-centrist and essentially incapable of reflecting the will of the people back home. He’s trying to go rock-star and personal brand.
It’s not unlike the pap that passes for peer-reviewed in academic circles. If you don’t rock the boat, you can become a “thought leader” in any field – and you don’t even need to do original research. Just keep your head down, comment on the hard work of others, sense the academic tide (even if demonstrably wrong) and a department chairmanship looms bright in your future.
The same thing goes on in Washington.
The rock stars of solid thinking (Ron Paul for example stayed outside the Washington-Think bubble) have to claw their way to the side of the arena – and when they finally get into a place where they can grill the likes of Alan Greenspan back when, two amazing things happen.
First, the MSM cuts out the parts of live coverage where Ron Paul was trying to ask pointed questions. And then, the MSM “press machine” cranks up to marginalize Ron Paul. They are the defenders of the Olde Way.
The same thing works on Bernie Sanders, too. He makes a certain amount of sense, gets some backing, and then the statist machine cranks up, marginalizes, and finally he gets fed-up and has to go back to running as an Independent.
What this Paul versus Paul deal up in Wisconsin will teach us is more about the level of voter awareness of this problem than anything.
Washington – theory goes – when the country was young – was a place of citizen legislators. They would poll their peeps back home and presto! Great government.
As the pop-bomb went off, media powers concentrated – and the paper bubble grew around Washington like a thicket of thorns, in the form of bureaucratic processes, the responsiveness of government to the needs of the people has been thrown out the window.
The only way to get through the morass is to get people elected who won’t stand for the “paper hand-cuffs” of old – inappropriate regulation and legislation.
Instead we will be able to sit back, simplify government and have some real “Come to Jesus” moments about how screwed up the country really is.
But the democrats can’t do it: They have a 52-year investment in the misnamed “Great Society” mess making up (in the process) a terrible welfare economic engine that feeds their party. Screws the people, doesn’t achieve result, except on election days for the likes of Boxer and Pelosi and Reid.
And so far, the republican’s can’t do anything about it, either. They are so easily hand-cuffed to the “paper process” that they might as well be pick-up subs in a gay bar: “Cuff me, pahleeze!” “I won’t rock the boat…”
They get “big-shotted” into believing that we are bound to a “tradition” of legislation and jurisprudence and consequently they lay around hand-cuffed to yesterday’s bad ideas.
WTF? What happened to Change?
Best-of-class analysis? Genuine responsiveness to voters?
Disbanding Congress and sending it all back to the home districts and putting the whole Auction Process of legislation up on a massive Skype call so we can all see what’s going on? Yeah that would make sense.
Will it happen?
You see, Government is not really responsive to change. There is a paper bubble over Washington – and the ties to past bad policy are strong.
We hold that a dispersed House – forced to live and work back in the home District, existing as an online service – which banks manage handily – would be the only way to quickly cure what ails us.
Online government works because everyone can “co-vote”…home District presence matters.
I would love to see an online democracy. A hybrid of people of honor and principles along with co-voting on key issues.
The hell of it is people in Wisconsin are statistically likely to return the Wrong Paul. So it’s not likely to happen.
So it is again that until we become Revolutionary Voters, the paradigm will drift – ever so slowly – among the hands with the Big Money and those who have the “power of tradition” and the “way we do things around here” to handcuff the likes of Ryan.
Disclaimer: Don’t read today’s column within 500 of a polling place in Wisconsin. An outbreak of revolutionary voting could upset the status quo.
Speaking of Blow Offs
Seems almost funny, don’t it? I mean here were are in a massive blow off in the market and a volcano is coming online?
Why, there’s something almost aerie about how the connection between paradigms works, sometimes.