Social Security Contingencies

Although 2034 seems a long ways off, not too early to be rethinking Social Security plans.  It’s due to run out of assets during our lifetime.  2034 is when the Trust Fund part runs out.  Assuming we get lucky for 13-more years!

Actually, we doubt it will be that long.  Because Covid 19 and the dollar’s falling status as the global reserve currency all comes into play.  So does a Fed describing property we labeled “temporal diodes” from years ago.

Because a lot of readers are just now “getting their groove on again” after the holiday, we’re keeping this morning’s report very concise.

Also a lot of interest in our ChartPack section this morning, as well.  Because the market sell-off yesterday sets up an interesting “technical situation” we’ll explore a bit.

So bean up, buckle up, and clean the specs…we’re off to learn Socialist Calculus with a side of financial reality.

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50 thoughts on “Social Security Contingencies”

  1. Wow. Nothing like multiple sources coming up with the same ball-park figure for a crash and burn area on the calendar. Between you, George, Clif and the other Remote Viewers we’re standing on the last few inches before the edge of the precipice with a wall of Time and Destiny pushing us forward. With all the uncertainty irrationality your charts are showing The End will come without much, if any, notice so being out of the line of fire and falling rock is about the best strategy you can have.

    I sold off a Balanced Fund yesterday that has actually been doing well throughout everything but I have my doubts about what it would do when everything falls apart. The only stocks I have left are a couple of miners that have been doing nothing but sitting on the bottom of their range, but I’ll tie an knot in the end of that rope and hope to eventually be vindicated down the road. Almost all in cash now and seriously thinking about bringing it all back home to a local bank while taking nervous looks at the brand new augur I bought for the tractor last year. It may be time to knock the paint off of it – IF they don’t try to tax a fully paid-for ranch out from under us. Luckily, along with the backhoe we also take care of a cemetery. Might add some midnight gardening to the upkeep program down there.

      • He’s a great guy and, lol, his patronage site is “Buy Me a Coffee” but in reality YOU’RE the one that needs a coffee given his delivery.

  2. Has Earth ever had a senior population as large as now?

    If you ever watch/read ‘Grapes (of Wraith) you’ll see back then death was normal, at least according to the story-line script. Today the family attach these bodies to machines, flip on the “social contract” and won’t/can’t let go of the emotional attachments. And they won’t let go until we’re all broke together. It’s dysfunctional to us all but that’s the system. Chip-in $2.00 on the keg and now entitled to drink as much as you can.

    From the doctor or warehouse worker point of view, they get paid. They’ll encourage keeping people on the machines. That’s how they make car payments. Turning granny and checking the drip @ $1,000 a day.

    • That’s the way the World worked for my parents. They were the first generation, though, to have some real hope in the fight against everything that was trying to take them down, hence, I wound up with every drop under the tongue, doctored sugar cube and jab that any doctor suggested I get. My Dad’s side of the family went through Whooping Cough and Polio while my Mom’s side was more self-imposed with alcoholism, which almost all of them overcame. Everyone smoked, of course, but that went by the wayside when I was a kid. I have to admit I don’t mind standing in the cloud of smoke from that first puff when someone downwind lights one up, though. Cheap thrill on my part.

      But, yeah, Death was a definite cloud that hung over everyone up to about the end of the 60s and then Dad wound up with a melanoma that some quack said not to worry about. Two moves later a good doctor told him he was going into surgery ASAP and Death made one final early swipe at our family a little over a year later. After which, Mom went on an anti-Cancer crusade so I never smoked around her. Didn’t matter that lung and melanoma cancers were two totally different things, Cancer was Cancer in her mind so it wasn’t worth arguing – and smoking was danged expensive, too. While we have other things in our World to worry about now the feeling of helplessness that ran just under the surface of my parents’ every day life isn’t a part of Life today nearly as much as it was then.

    • “Today the family attach these bodies to machines, flip on the “social contract” and won’t/can’t let go of the emotional attachments.”

      It depends on whose body it is.. and how much money they have..
      Simple question…Do you have an advanced directive filled out.. Drs.are bound to follow protocol if you don’t. I did my advanced directive back in my twenties.
      It’s like an AED why have them..what is it 90% die while on the toilet.. an average of 20 minutes to 3 get emergency help.. what if it was a loved one..what if it was you.. family members of someone with money are traditionally faster at pulling the plug. Seen family members even stand guard at their mothers door stopping anyone from going in..
      The same argument why have fire extinguishers or fire departments..
      See it’s easier to make those decisions if your not involved..drs. work on a business takes a lot to get those million dollar paychecks..

  3. Barring a “Hiroshima event” most everything will turn out alright, IMHO ;-). In my >90 years life I came to the conclusion that we’re living in PAR ADISE and people don’t seem to grasp that fact.
    That includes YOU!!

    • In many cases throughout history, the advanced civilizations collapsed. Sometimes there were external factors perhaps flood or similar environment event. But many simply collapse from internal factors. They consume needed resources, they lose control of a common mindset (revolution). Greek, Roman, Incan, Aztec, Egyptian, and before them the global megalithic building civilizations disappeared. Certainly I live my life like those things are a very small risk, but every society has collapsed or shrunk. I agree for all of my life we have basically been in paradise in the East, but over a 500-1000 year time frame, almost all collapse. The dark ages were a real thing and will certainly happen again. In my life probably not, but did those others think the same when at the height of the power and influence?

      • I totally agree with your post, but as individuals we need to “adjust or perish” (law of nature!). So let’s enjoy what we have–our offsprings are hopefully smart enough to manage their own destiny. Try to enjoy what’s left and don’t worry about events beyond our control, IMHO.

      • I totally agree… loved your post Joe Dish.. here is a good book..

        what was it that Plato once said when asked what causes a civilization to collapse.. the greed of those that rule and the acceptance of those that they lead..
        “Plato’s non-dramatic prose tragedy illustrates the natural cycle of political decay from aristocracy to timocracy to oligarchy to democracy to tyranny in terms of a five-generation royal family. In Plato’s telling, an aristocratic father is followed by a timocratic son, who is himself succeeded in turn by an oligarch, a democrat, and a tyrant.
        Plato presents a clinical, yet vivid analysis of the corruption of the democratic state, citizen, and prince . excessive freedom encourages citizens to overindulge their appetites. In time, such citizens become incapable of moral self-regulation; all discipline is lost and all resources squandered.

        This moral, spiritual, economic, and political anarchy leads to two outcomes that might at first seem contradictory. First, the citizens “chafe impatiently at the least touch of authority and at length . . . they cease to care even for the laws, written or unwritten; they will have no one over them. In time, however, their lack of personal discipline—of self-imposed austerity—compels them to put a tyrant over themselves so that they will be assured, so they think, of a steady stream of pleasures and delights. Thus, Plato concludes, an “excess of liberty, whether in States or individuals, seems only to pass into excess of slavery”
        Solomon, the wisest man who ever lived, warned us that there is nothing new under the sun.
        combined greed of the oligarchy and the other factors… take like climate or a biological.

      • we can see that happening today in news and the burying of a simple hard drive… and all the corruptive actions done by that individual.. or a server with thousands and thousands of emails that would make anyones skin curdle at the thought of what they are doing .. they know what they do or have done is wrong but it becomes acceptable because they are the powerful where laws are not written for them.. we are to accept their behaviors.. .. All of it has been done before.. Caligula is a good example ..

      • Ever hear of John Calhoun?

        Run a search for “Universe 25.”

        There’s a nonzero probability homo sap is committing suicide…

    • Going from the Roman “civilization” to The Dark Ages much of what little technology and learning there was went to dust. My greatest fear is that much of what we know and take for granted will be lost if our education systems degrade any farther. Having risen so high in this go-round of the growth of Civilization, even if we should revert back to an early 20th Century lifestyle, the knowledge we’ve accumulated should halt much of the fall from our current height. Even with a major and extended depression that outstrips the Great one of the 30s, even with nukes popping off and EMTs frying a lot of electronics that knowledge would still be there.

      I favor a world that would resemble that of the one envisioned by William R. Forstchen in his “One Second After” book series. There would be the loss of the fragile people such as the main character’s daughter who was diabetic but the means of production would still exist in many places to begin again after many years – the means to really, truly, “Build Back Better” rather than the mockery this slogan makes of humanity today. The one thing that does concern me, however, would be someone like China who still had the means to pursue Imperialism gaining the upper hand and Communism taking over the World. It would take an asteroid to truly burn that bad gene out of Mankind’s genetic makeup.

  4. My oh my how the narrative has evolved around these parts..

    Calling dr Falsie, dr falsie? member he was called/described as a evil lil goblin on these pages?
    Soften Ure eyes/glaze to almost crossing – as you gaze at his face and head- gazing about 2 inches above the head..can U see it ?
    Neither could I – like a lot of these “people” in DC, they got no light,its gone somehow, as if it is being swallowed by some ting.
    Look at sen. Schmer -NY, not only greyed out of light – there is somting else lurking in/on/around. He is not only one I notice looking like they have a resident succubus/incubus. The whole mess of leadership in DC is”soulless”, compromised and on the take.

    * if “look at”, notice aura, energy, dimensionals – know it is Interactive – they notice-look at you..closely, inspecting like.

    NOBODY ever pays attention Mr Narrator – nobody! THEY told US what they were going to do, how they were going to do it – but nobody bothered listening/learning cept the “vampires” .
    Do you remember ? Summer of 1975 – Lima, Peru ???

    Anyone ? No ? okay pay attention campers


    Lima, Peru 12-26 MARCH 1975

    #12 “Recognizing that the developing countries constitute 70 % of the world population and 7 % of industrial production….the establishment of a new international economic order based on equity and just us.”

    They told us what exactly they were going to do – they always do..

    Politics is the Lowest form of work/job a person could possibly engage in – which is prolly why trump so reveled in it and Bribem(not my president) thinks he is actually in charge of something other than Hunters’ credit limit on his pornhub account credit card.
    Got more respect for the Johnny on the Spot mobil terlet techs – than ANYONE in DC/Colorado Springs Underground…human filth R they.

    • Sure, I have noticed Schumer, he looks like a gargoyle, and the devil all morphed together. He’s reflecting his inner petty vindictive anti-white, anti-Christian years of screwing service to the USA citizens. Which means he’s ugly and rich from selling US out. That’s what a degree from Ha Ha Vard will get you. Course he does not believe in hell, so he has no conscience, regardless, hell is believing in him.

  5. ? SS ponzi scheme has been running on fumes for years Chief.

    Aint no assets in the vault, nothing but IOU’s from various Guvment Agencies I am afraid.

    Like everything else from this modern guvment in DC – EVERYTHING is a Lie, UnTruth, Deciet – EVERYTHING.

    They took dollars that had actual value from our Paychecks, and give some back later but with way less valuable $$$..”I was robbed!”
    Pull an IOU – send over to Treasury – print the equivalent sum – deposit newly printed decimal points over at fed – for disbursement out to SS recipients.
    Wow, can you imagine if they had actually invested that money in Stocks and Bonds over time. Instead they be lending out all the funds to close holes in various guvment agency accounts.

    As the Beatles once remarked about how many “holes” does take to fill the albert hall, but in this case how many “holes” did/does it take to fill con -gress ?
    – rhetorical G, rhetorical.

    Solution ? why of course, Bitcoin…buy the dip while you still can, hell even the Salvadorians got their proverbial scheisse together and made it the coin of the realm.
    El Salvador – Going Up !? USA – Going Down!?

    What chu gonna do – when they come 4 U ?

    Whine and cry with Ure hands on Ure Ure head, or on the trigger of your gun ? – Warning – baseline will haunt U all day if you click – listen..

    Have not heard of any viewers seeing a Crash in next 2 months – just a churn, not much change in values from Sept1 -Nov1.
    What is of GREAT concern is ALL the viewers in the “Hawaii grp” saw a big honking mushroom cloud – all were disturbed by these visions. Not sure what to make of except as massive diversion – which is all they seem to have left in the ole bag of diabolical tricks..cosmic losers indeed.

    • MORE details about that “cloud” of at that other “Far Sight” away place. Somewhat bothersome when different people far removed from each other, and each other’s circle ALL see the same thing ….

  6. Before the Fedgov lets SS collapse, they will just remove the upper limit on income and that should fund SS well past 2050.
    Medicare is a whole ‘nother kettle of fish though…

  7. credit markets are siezing up . lots are suspending payments , inflation my butt , its a depression . crash? already started yellowdog knows ,2 things from 30s , 1 we were living in it and didnt know , 2 one day rich next day poor . insert real estate , stocks , yellow dog in . shorts are valuable . in order to sell high one must buy low . vegetated types are thinking depression wealth strategies , the pain of loosing money far exceeds the joy of making it . brace and prepare

  8. I’ve been told for years that SS would run out long before I could ever collect on it .
    Received my first SS check today. I guess it’s all gravy from here. Would like the readers opinion on this site of when to start collecting, 62,65,70. I chose 62. I hope I chose wisely.

      • Problem is while what wisely sez is that she has made the assumption that America is still here.
        In the 2025 China driven world and America defaulting, not sure how solid a plan that might be.

        When government begins to repudiate the lies come fast and hard. Ask the Afghans.

    • I did a simple excel spreadsheet. Three columns for each age comparison. I used two retirement age scenarios, 62.4 and the SS check, and projected check at 67.4. Let the one column be your age, then annual benefit amount and third column cumulative totals after first year.

      See what the age is when the cumulative numbers almost match.

      With my known health concerns, I can collect at 62.4 and collect as much as if I collected starting at 67.4 and my break even is 79.

      Yes, my benefit is lower, but I can’t raise my benefit now anyway, and my spouse will have a higher benefit . So, if I pass first, spouse is good. If spouse passes first, I am good. If we both make it into our 80’s and beyond, we combine our resources.

      I have noticed that not one woke woman has brought up or fought for the majority widowed spouse, to get to keep both benefit checks after losing their mate. Most both checks are modest. The women left have to live on one check. Of course, same for men, just more women are left to fend for themselves.

      So, if you did the math, and can estimate your health date, the answer should appear. IF you reevaluate and think you collected too soon, you can change your mind in first year, but have to pay back any checks received.

      This country, at least in the last 50 years, rarely makes good decisions for its citizens. It has just been one long slide.

  9. “Although no doubt, training lawyers and public prosecutors in China might seem like a good approach, the reality is China’s courts are more extension of PLA/CCP agendas than truth-finders. Or justice/”

    Americans are sometimes both stupid and ignorant. One of our most egregious displays of ignorant stupidity is we ASSume every social system is like ours, every political system is like ours, and every legal system is like ours.

    A “trial” in communist China is approximately equivalent to a “sentencing hearing” in the United States. When the Chicoms “bring charges” against a person the local or regional Politburo has already determined that that person is “guilty.”

  10. Lindsey Graham: U.S. ‘Will Be Going Back Into Afghanistan’

    Lindsey shows his true spots AGAIN. TBF he’s not a neocon or a RINO, but he’s also not a conservative, and he IS a huge war-hawk, even without McCain. ‘Thing is, we will have terrorist attacks in CONUS before we go back to Afghanistan, and when we get a notion to do so, there will be more fundamentalist Islamic jihadists in Afghanistan than the entire U.S. military and reserves, they’ll be better trained and organized than we, and they will be much more highly-motivated. China and Russia both have military instructors on the ground in Afghanistan, TODAY. Either would LOVE to fight a proxy war against the U.S. using Afghanistan and its PITA turf to deplete our resources and drive…

      • “While you pick the low hanging fruit (Pence) how come you didn’t tout how much higher Dick Cheney was?”

        That’s moot, George.

        First, it’s a troll and not worth a reply.
        Second, the LATimes uses its own grading scale, which is a “fun with numbers” exercise and bears no semblance to relevant fact.
        Third, the troll resorted to namecalling before even receiving a reply, which is a concession of defeat and a confirmation that the post was made explicitly as a troll, and has no intrinsic merit.

  11. You know.. it always surprises me when I freeze dry something just how much water there is in everything. The weight difference is amazing.. thirty pounds of chopped onions and peppers..afterwards about three or four pounds..

  12. The secrecy veil of federal law enforcement and intelligence parts a bit:

    The revenuers chase seizure gold while our nation’s enemies operate openly here, setting up the never ending foreign adventurism. And the west coast dope scofflaws of a decade ago are now zillionaire CEO’s.
    Meanwhile, Texas kids languish in prisons on charges of aggravated reefer madness. Somehow lengthy local jail time is trivialized and not viewed as prison. And dope informants and vigilantes do the work of political criminals at the local level. The war on America evolves, but one thing doesn’t change; everyone involved is lining their pocket at your expense.

  13. My husband’s last dying word concerned his social security check:
    He was given 6 months to live because of a terminal brain tumor but was determined to live long enough to receive his first social security check at 62 yrs. He was pretty much sleeping constantly when the first check arrived. When I showed him it, he opened his eyes and said “Wow” and then went back to sleep and died a few days later.

    • And then that SS check had to be given back. SS ends the month BEFORE one dies. The payment for the month of death must be returned. Been thru this before with family elders.

      Social Security works with two year old data from the IRS and just cannot seem to ‘catch up’. I was forced into early retirement and had to start taking SS at age 63. But two years earlier I made an obscene amount of money… above the limit for SS payment deductions, so they reduced my SS payment, based on two year old data that no longer applied. I challenged the ruling and sent them my most recent IRS 1040 data. Social security waited two years more to act on my challenge.. when they finally got the IRS data themselves (that I sent two years earlier) to confirm my challenge. Then I simply got a few hundred more deposited, unannounced, into my account.

    • But Ray’s right – he did lay claim to being a democrat – so own it.
      Again – shocker to a one way liberal – lots of liberals attack (wait for it!) Other Democrats!
      Ever listen to the attacks from AOC? Anyone not endorsing her radical pack of bullshitters is denounnced.

      • “so own it.”

        Not gonna happen…

        The troll-post doesn’t have to be fair, accurate, true, or reasonable. In fact, it’s better if it isn’t. The troll is a vandal. Their desire is to clutter up discussions, and their weapon is the corruption of discourse, by which they strive to anger, inflame, or incense at least one person into a vitriolic response.The troll isn’t interested in learning or informing and almost never replies to, or sticks around to witness the effect of their post.

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