Slicing and Dicing 2023

Every year, we take a fearless poke at the future and explain our basis for ‘Life Planning’ for the coming year.  The process is never simple, though.  Something as complicated as one’s Life and as intricate as a global economy is more than a 5-minute essay!

Today, we kick around some of the data sourcing ideas and suggest an “indexing” method, which echoes of our Aggregate Index approach to things.

After a few headlines and the ADP numbers just rolling to be followed by our ChartPack.

Spoiler alert:  We think a huge entity to track in 2023 will be which is all laid out to reprise the role of the Civilian Conservation Corps in the depths of the previous Depression.

And we’ll explain where we think the Fed went wrong on its mechanistic handling of inflation.

More for Subscribers ||| Missing out?  SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center

55 thoughts on “Slicing and Dicing 2023”

  1. “Take our leisure/hospitality and there’s no growth!”

    the general manager at dollar general was just making a comment yesterday.. the store got ready for their after thanksgiving sales.. great prices.. usually it is cleared off of the shelves by monday night..
    hardly anything has been sold..the manager was commenting on how slow the sales have been.. they didn’t even have to restock the shelves..
    I said think about it.. groceries .. are double or more on the average.. if you buy crap its thirty five percent more.. and did you raise the wages of those working here.. I didn’t think so.. they can’t afford it..
    now hyper inflation.. when will hyper deflation hit..

    • We all see the same but to reinforce your comment I went to $WMT around 7:00PM BF.

      Not many shoppers at the time and a tell was the store still being well stocked and organized.

      But that has to be tempered with online sales. As I was leaving the store empty handed the greeter commented I bought nothing and then started explaining how to use their online website. That to say maybe a shift took place.

      Anything I bought was from online sources.

      • that is possible.. the DG… and Dollar store usually stocks the product levels below WMT.. and the vast majority of the sales goes to the bottom tier of society.. which is why I brought them up..
        as for wmt and amazon.. I am not sure how their sales numbers are.. since the cost of living has gotten the better of the working class.. I know what our prices went up.. and wages have not gone up.. only to the new hires . had a young mother start bawling yesterday at aalmart…. she went in to get her walmart order and put them in the car.. turned around and her car was taken.. it was repossessed yesterday leaving her without groceries and all her belongings.. car seats etc.. all gone..She said she had worked out a deal with the bank.. obviously the bank didn’t think what she could do to pay her back car payments off was enough now she has to figure out how to get kids to school her to work etc. food isn’t a big thing … around here wages has settled around the twelve buck area…management level is starting wage of thirteen .. for smaller companies.. one gent I know he is retired.. his rent went two hundred a month more than what he gets in retirement.. in time we will see a huge deflationary period.. you cannot keep a brick and mortar open if you don’t have sales.. WMT has cut positions to.. raised the wages of some.. but you cannot find anyone working and only one check stand open now..

  2. Many moving parts in today’s report.

    “freight railroads, Amtrak and airlines”

    They’re already GSEs. Amtrak has been on the dole since 1971, over 50 years. Airlines are vertically integrated into the dole system & have been booking COVID bailout as profit to get bonuses. It’s normal.

    U.S steel just renewed the 2018 tariffs.

    U.S. chip manufactures can’t afford to build chip factories even during massive shortages of their products.

    All that on top of the pensions being bailed out w/American Rescue Act 2022.

    Once dole and dole multipliers are backed-out there is no economy. Dole is so normalized people claim the pellets as a right.

    If RD/PD is correct, people are going to walk from this system. It’s too big to save.

    $ still eerily tracking 1920’s German mark.

    A super-spike could come for Bitcoin. If you had 2 hours to get all your $ out of the system because of imminent failure how would you do it?

      • I don’t plan on living through the Apocalypse.

        After J6 (riots?) people in my family were online scanning protester photos trying to identify protestors for reward money. They would turn me in for a can of Cheese Whiz.

        Anyone who took a jab to keep the job, weak link. They would trade me for resources.

        Gaslighting thieve would steal my gold.

        I can go on and on.

        There are so many weak links in my circle I’ve got pile of nuts.

      • “I don’t plan on living through the Apocalypse.”

        I believe that is why the vast majority of the young people think today @ out of work steve…why prep for a storm I not planning to make it anyway..
        it’s like I told someone a couple weeks ago.. if you prep you prep for the small storm.. you don’t prep to be a survivor of a shtf scenario. you prep in case you happen to be one of them that happens to survive a shtf scenario.
        all the studies say basically the same thing.
        like I have told those that know.. prep for the community for those that aren’t prepping for the storm. Monson tried to emphasize that with our church but I think he failed to get people to understand his point of view. those I know are still trying to prep for them alone not for community .. ..the thought is if you aren’t one of the ones at least others that do happen to have a chance using the components and information that you have set aside.

      • “I don’t plan on living through the Apocalypse.”

        think about this.. WHY… did the scribes thousands of years ago put the dead sea scrolls in jars… the lost archives.. the lost libraries.. they were made to pass on teach others.. that is the real treasures.. so others can see through your eyes learn from your mistakes and from your successes..
        they are still finding ancient graineries..put up to help their communities survive..

    • Would have started to consistently skip lunch and DCA every payday into select Blockchain projects about 6 years ago. Not financial advice.

  3. Merry Christmas – Seekers ..from Disney

    No we are not in the middle of an all out, inter dimensional WAR, nope everything is just copacetic.

    Keep forgiving all the assaults on Ure Family, Ure morales, Ure Person. Best to just keep Ure head in the sand, while you keep taking the Painial backshots from “Those”/that which “crawled” out of goblekli tepe so many eons ago…

    100% – all of them = Bloodsuckers, drinkers ala Bolon Yotke aka Enil/Zeus/Setes/Satanannya/vav heh yod heh or vav yod heh heh /conjur or ward (whoops) and his miserable mercs the musigir = camacotz said to have killed most of Mans 2nd creation by ripping their heads off – see Chilam Balam

    Yea nothing to worry about regards cyclical reset every 12,500 years – pass the hot buttered rum and spark up a dube and forget everything, again .


    ???? this one baffles me… why are they worried about that.. of course they could do surveilance.. I believe that is why they turned on everyones phone camera and mic .. baby monitors and security cameras and traffic cameras a few years ago.. but all the drones sold to kids and adults are made where again.. LOL even the crap we use for security..
    a few years ago a friend sent me a tablet.. scrubbed to factory defaults.. and.. the four year old at the time.. logged into the cloud.. everything was there.. and editable.. we have siri and alexa listening in every home.. google.. etc.. and who builds the equipment.. so why be concerned now .. that is just stupid if you ask me.. so what .. they going to make it so that no one can buy one for their kid..In my opinion its way to late ..

    • When I look out into the vastness of bullshit to view the goings on around the world, I keep in mind what George says, “Everything is a business model.”

      Collecting Data, seems to be the thing … so them PTB can adequately rule the world in the future. Taking notes on everything we do … and everything we’re subjected to. Gotta know when naught from naught equals naught, and how many gozintas there are in any given scenario.

      Doubt China is actually counting covid cases but rather, human behavior under controlled conditions. Gotta have data on that, ya know.

      Shortages. Gotta know who falls and who shucks and jives well enough to survive. Who rises up and, who don’t.

      Everyone watches those talent shows and even vote for contestants. Accurate results in the momentary time of one commercial break. Wow !! Meantime elections in Georgia and Arizona … (wtf??) and can anyone name one election that was delayed when a Republican won? Hmmm
      Gotta have data on that.

      Business Model, every bit of it. Act surprised.

      And China is trying to buy our Lithium mine … strictly business.

      Just say your interested in (something) when your near your phone … within days (being time generous) you’ll see adds and information for what ever it was you wished for.

      It’s business. Future gonna suck.


    • DJI’s cheapest drones are in the $400 price range. They are rarely kids’ toys — they’re mostly used by hobbyists and videographers, and by LEAs…

      • “Sam’s and Costco..
        the hot xmas sales item.. 850.00”

        The problem with the little drones is they don’t like crosswinds. My little one can not handle more than 12kts without blowing away. The bigger drones have better wind capability and more pre-programmed tricks. My little one does inside and outside loops and barrel rolls, which is more than I’d ever do with it. My drones were purchased as flying camera platforms and I don’t have the money to piss away by stacking one up.

  5. Efficient things.

    Science (The Real Article, NOT the politicized,, fad-driven, virtue-signaling, propagandized steaming pile that claims by morons to be “settled” and beyond further debate) will determine certain future things. NOT happy idealistic Utopian delusions of harnessing unicorn farts, but Real, Solid, Hard Science and Real Actual Engineering, based in Real and True physics and mathematics.

    Energy will be one of them.

    It is inescapably true that Solar Energy is ONE good, functionally inexhaustible source. There are others. (Yes, Virginia, “they” really are working on “Zero-Point” energy — but that’s another disquisition.)

    There’s a LOT of petroleum in the Earth. A lot. If Wisdom prevails, those reserves could-would last for a VERY long time — enough to buy a bridge into Global Full Solarization in a couple of decades. (But NOT in a few months!!)

    Certain applications, like jet aircraft, will probably still need liquid fuels for their energy density and relative lack of weight compared to batteries: but bio-diesel is a known thing, based on plants, and fermented and distilled. Diesel and jet fuel are much alike. Plants CAPTURE free carbon dioxide from the air, and upon burning of the fuels generated, liberate the SAME AMOUNT back into the ecosphere: Net Zero.

    Trains move a lot of very heavy cargo long distances, and use electricity generated from large diesel engines. Yes, train locomotives are diesel-electric HYBRIDS, just like a goddam Toyota Prious automobile. Additionally. trains use steel wheels on steel rails to reduce rolling friction to a minimum. Railroad Diesel-Electric Locomotives are incredibly efficient for those reasons.

    Hybrid cars generate the electricity as they go along from a generator to drive electric motors at the four wheels. Electronics regulates the flow. They are very efficient. The internal combustion engine is small and low-powered compared to what would be required in horsepower for snappy off-the-line acceleration. The electric motors provide the off-the-line and sustaining speeds, while the liquid fuel-engine operates at an overall “area under the curve” AVERAGE power output.

    One severe danger we face is a “Tyranny Of The Engineers.” This is where the John Kerrys and Greta Thunebergs of the world stampede the general stupid poorly-educated public into making popular but stupid decisions — WHICH MUST NEEDS FAIL UTTERLY EVENTUALLY because they are based on delusionary bullshit.

    It may feel good at first, but millions — you among them — will starve and freeze in the dark, unless the program of steady and rational Science-based energy development is funded and worked in an intelligent and steady manner.

    In 1936, the movie “Shape of Things To Come,” was made, illustrating some aspects — both good and bad — of this approach. A 1979 Canadian D-movie re-make was a very poor attempt; but the very dated but still fascinating 1936 version is well worth your time. It takes some patience to watch, because the general pacing of the moviemaking craft has developed a lot since 1936, but it’s still well worth the time.

    – 73 –

    • “It may feel good at first, but millions — you among them — will starve and freeze in the dark, unless the program of steady and rational Science-based energy development is funded and worked in an intelligent and steady manner.”

      Well stated my friend. Steady and rational science-based development of any kind seems to be outside the Democrat playbook.

      Having one of those days when I want to yell “stop the merry-go-round. I want off.

      • “It may feel good at first, but millions — you among them — will starve and freeze in the dark, unless the program of steady and rational Science-based energy development is funded and worked in an intelligent and steady manner.”

        the sad part about that.. is I believe that all of it has been done already It just isn’t in the business model yet,
        just like our grid.. it isn’t designed for security of the gridor survival of the country but for the business model of making money or numbers on a screen or sheet of paper.. and almost every electric company will do everything they can to discourage anyone from putting solar in.. we keep all our energy production as far away from the furthest points so we can keep control over it.. solar towers.. smaller and distributed starting at the furthest point and work back the butterfly effect.and I might add cheaper to….. every home in the wastelands could have solar for a fraction of the cost of one large wind turbine and produce what nine thousand percent more……..Before I was born.. Texaco .. had a contest every year.. they had a car that got almost seven hundred miles to a gallon.. posted it it is real and already designed and patented.. they had a magazine that came out yearly.. with this stuff in it.for cars made heavier than the cars today…
        Everything is energy.. not just solar.. or wind.. during ww2 germany used MW 50 (Methanol-Wasser 50) was a 50-50 mixture of methanol and water (German: Wasser) that was often sprayed into the supercharger of World War II aircraft engines along with Hydrogen.. we discourage coal.. I say lets promote coal.. just change the burn box.. a chimney effect to burn the fumes.. and toxic gases..
        the oil sands of canada.. wonderful product.. easy to harvest the oil.. but why do it easy when you can make it one of the hardest most complicated processes known to man.. It is the business model..
        then there is methane.. alcohol.. ( you can make alcohol out of just about anything carbon) fats.. etc.. energy is all around us.. having the ability to produce it.. and use it.. may be limited.. the only reason it is limited is because it doesn’t fit into the business model of today..which I believe will cause a great many to starve and die..
        when I was little.. my friends dad had an old tractor in his shelter belt.. we use to play on it as if it was a rocket or an airplane etc.. but on the front there was this odd trash can thing.. one day I asked him what it was.. he said back in the thirties and WW2.. gas was rationed.. and they couldn’t plant the fields.. so he bought that to put on his tractor.. he could burn old corn cobs trash whatever it would give him the gas he needed.. simple design.. the same thing in a rocket stove.. where you burn the exhaust fumes.. and plant the fields.. I have built one.. from an oil barrel and one from plumbing parts at any plumbing supply house.. it is easy..I couldn’t really afford the parts so to do it we built it at my friends shop.. worked good.. .. nothing special there.. LPG.. easy to.. you can even use alcohol to do it.. put a chimney on it and you burn the fumes as well..
        JUNK MAIL.. my god I know you get a ton of that crap.. I do to.. make alcohol or fuel pellets with it.. the sun.. you can do a lot with the sun.. cool or heat etc..
        electricity.. from the Air.. OMG.. yes you can..
        Of course you have tesla to.. with a graphene antenna.. or just by your roof sheeting.. and a battery bank..
        anyway.. I am no scientist.. just an old foggie with his crazy grandpa garage spiraments.. the guy in seventy eight that drove across the USA on ten gallons of gas.. to sit in front of congress.. and tell them .. there isn’t a fuel shortage.. just make some changes.. and unfortunately none of it will be encouraged until it becomes the business model..

    • William, you are correct in this line of reason.
      In 1936, the movie “Shape of Things To Come,” was made, illustrating some aspects — both good and bad — of this approach. A 1979 Canadian D-movie re-make was a very poor attempt; but the very dated but still fascinating 1936 version is well worth your time.

      The likely outcome of thinking for today’s population is mostly, “…the John Kerrys and Greta Thunebergs of the world stampede the general stupid poorly-educated public into making popular but stupid decisions” as you point out.
      Even more likely in our time would be the movie, “IDIOCRACY”. Now this one is the one we are living right now. :-) Read the everyday headlines. We are there!

      …stampede the general stupid poorly-educated public into making popular but stupid decisions…

      • “stampede the general stupid poorly-educated public into making popular but stupid decisions…”

        IT’S THE BUSINESS MODEL… we make simple complicated .. just to keep people from understanding it.. we went on the big journey of dumbing down our youth.. we don’t promote education.. we actually make if difficult to get an education unless your from certain social classes.. you would be shocked at how many people all college graduates that I have worked besides that cannot even read the morning post or the journal and understand what it is saying.. we outsourced our industry for the business model.. we put more into a piece of paper than we do into those that know.. or those with experience..
        It is sad.. but it is the business model.. that we have.. everything comes from somplace else.. in other countries they push an education.. if your not able to excell.. then you are put in a place where your abilities can be used everyone has value everyone has a place where they can excell.. .. the schools in other countries push the education in the USA we have party central.. stick it out get a sheet of paper.. of course that is just my opinion.. but we are doomed and those people that don’t know how to read .. are our future..

    • “Certain applications, like jet aircraft, will probably still need liquid fuels for their energy density and relative lack of weight compared to batteries: but bio-diesel is a known thing”

      (Since kerosene, diesel, Jet-A, etc, are siblings, I assume their potential energy and flow characteristics are similar.)

      The biggest problem with biodiesel is it begins to gel when ambient temps are in the 40s. Dinodiesel begins to gel in the high 30s, but anti-gel additives work much better with it than they do BD. At STP you can run pure BD. At 40-below you can -=maybe=- run 2% BD. At 120-below, treated petroleum-diesel will still flow and burn, whereas BD will have the consistency of hard candle-wax. The second-biggest problem is although within a couple thousand BTUs, it does not have the amount of potential energy as dinodiesel, and when made from something like soya, requires nearly as much energy to make as it yields. This is why Petcos, Shell in-particular, have been experimenting with rapeseed and algae for the past 20 years or so. Rapeseed produces nearly 2x the oil as soya, cultivated algae produce nearly 2x the amount of oil as rapeseed (this is from research I did in 2002-2004. I would assume the numbers are even better now…)

      We make/buy millions of gallons of biodiesel stock every year from soybean farmers, as a backroom subsidy to the soya growers, just as we make/buy millions of gallons of ethanol every year from corn farmers (cane is a much more efficient source for ethanol…) It costs more to extract pure grain alcohol from corn than the alcohol’s potential energy yield.

      These subsidies are a part of farming’s “3rd rail” and can never be spoken of, even though they cost the taxpayer considerably more than fallow fields and selective-growth farm subsidies. However, they’re hidden in plain sight…

    • Swimming naked in Crypto short pond eh? when melt up arrives, it’s going to make the > 200% oversubscription of TSLA shares look like child’s play.

      Got Blockchain. ?

  6. Re: “A Tale of Two Cities”, Dickens


    France24 shows an elegant Mme. Macron arm-in-arm with the French President yesterday evening. They were descending down the steps of the A330 Armée de l’Air et de l’Espace operated by the Republic of France just arrived at Andrew’s AFB. The taupe outfit of Mme. Macron was rendered into an olive-green tone.

    Last night’s arrival at Andrews was literally night-and-day in comparison to the couple’s rose-jacketed, sunny afternoon entry of 2018 with some words from the visitor. It was black and white. Both arrivals are depicted by the US non-profit C-SPAN channel.


    (2:15-2:40, Madame Defarge, is that you?)


    (2:15-2:40, knitting needles make a point?)

    • Re: slice ‘n dice


      Fifteen years ago the building of what was to become the Corinthia Hotel, London, was purchased from the Crown Estate by the Brotherly Leader of the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya via his co-owned Maltese hotelier subsidiary of fine repute. Eight days ago the Prince and Princess of Wales collected South African President Ramaphosa from the hotel beginning the first State Visit under King Charles III.

      Meanwhile 25 years ago, an Englishwoman born from East End, London, of Anglo-Carib parentage with Nigerian tribe-like nomenclature was pictured together with Prince Charles both happily playing bongo drums. The image has recently been added to Wikipedia. The source is subsidiary to a privately held 150 year old British media company whose 12 member white board is led by a Scottish peer of the House of Lords formerly a chief of staff at 10 Downing Street.

      Alas, as today’s headlines advise, an octogenarian godmother to the heir to the throne has crossed paths with that same woman of 25 years past. Dated inquiries by the former reminiscent of days of empire were not well received. “Blessings” is from Hackney, ‘luv.

  7. Clif High made the point no one else is making in his latest offering, that the Hawaii volcanoes blasting off recently more than exceed any CO2 savings we’ve made from Solar/Wind/etc in the past year!
    Maybe the Earth is trying to tell us something…it needs MORE CO2?

    • Hub and I were just saying a few days ago the same thing, except, we think all of the active volcanoes (as they go on and off), all over the globe, destroy the man made global warming C02 hype-to-the-hills BS.

      On another big lie topic, in my best: “follow the science Fauci accent.”

      From the article: “Wow! It was amazing to spend 7 hours with Dr. Fauci. The man who single-handedly wrecked the U.S. economy based upon ‘the science.’ Only to discover that he can’t recall practically anything dealing with his Covid response!”

      So, yeah, science can be highly manipulated for profit, dare I say, resulting in hundreds of millions of deaths.

      I think I will take a Fireplace for $1,000 Smart Alec.

    • I haven’t read an estimate of the current output, but during the 2018 Kilauea eruption our volcano was putting out 18 kilotons of sulfur dioxide daily for months and months. Gonna take more carbon tax than the world can muster to put a cork in this volcano. Climate change, my A$$!

    • I’ve had similar thoughts when driving too close to serious forest fires, or even observing them from afar. In NM, we get serious smoke from fires in adjacent states and some people even get ill from it. These produce CO2 way beyond the amounts saved by all the pollution devices engineered into modern cars. The particulates from the fires dwarf the effects of DEF and catalysts on diesels, yet California is still trying to restrain trade using reliable diesel trucks.

  8. For a while there I thought that I might have been “wrong”.., but as the day played out and the Fed-Speak hit the news.., it all turned around and the NASDAQ 100 went up 4.5% – good day for trading – if you were paying attention – especially for the ‘right words’ from the Fed.
    – Hope your day was as profitable…,

  9. So much offered sounds reasonable and logical. But if reason and logic actually ruled, we wouldn’t be, collectively speaking, where we unarguably are. Human beings are complex and full of contradictions. There are 8 billion stories on The Naked Planet. A great reckoning is now upon us.

  10. Some Farken sheetcoin turd who comes here told me to shove my gold . Listen . Buy gold short the market . Gold always bottoms first . Operational valid buys everywhere. Markets farked absurd valuations based on robots and turds . I am in mourning for my beloved cat . F everything. RIP darling

    • I resemble that remark.

      Its cool Lennster, beloved Pussy dies, ripping out a piece of Ure heart with it. Proving once again the number one Human weakness – Emotion.
      In my world true LOVE is Loyalty, what rest the of World calls LOVE is Memory.imho

      Just offered alternate, unconventional solution to problem of runaway made up Money (unbacked).

      GOLD will be confiscated, just like Ure Guns, Ure Freedom down under.

      But I do like the new moniker you have bestowed upon my legendary greatness…The Farken Shitcoin Turd (FST) – thanks for that..the legend grows!

      and Merry Farken Christmas to You and Ures.

      Peace, mate.

  11. Shocking Local AZ Election Data: GOP Turnout Up, Dems Down, Yet Dems Won – Here Are the Alarming Numbers

    One of the oddities of the midterm elections in Arizona was Republican turnout was up and Democratic turnout down from 2018 in Maricopa County, yet some of the top-of-the-ticket GOP candidates lost their races. The county, encompassing the Phoenix metropolitan area, includes 60 percent of registered voters in the state.

    Arizona Governor-elect Hobbs ultimatum to county board: Certify her election or face felony rap

    The office of Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, now the governor-elect, threatened the Mohave County Board of Supervisors with legal action and criminal referral unless they certified the 2022 vote in their county. Mohave County waited until Nov. 28, the deadline for Arizona counties to certify, to vote on the certification of its election because of the host of issues that plagued Election Day in Maricopa County

    …Ain’t nuthin’ to see here.

    • January 26th

      the Supremes -conf. to consider review or pass – Brunson case.

      One word whispered regards 2020 election – January

      tick, tick..

  12. Indian Army Shows Off Birds of Prey Trained to Destroy Armed Drones

    The armed forces of India published videos this week showing the nation’s soldiers ordering birds of prey known as “kites” to seize and destroy small drones mid-air. The videos are from ongoing military exercises in Uttarakhand, near the border with China, in which Indian forces are training alongside Americans to improve cooperation and teamwork in the event of having to fight together.

    Peregrine, anyone…?

  13. 5 Million Watch Stew Peters’ New ‘Died Suddenly’ Film in First 24 Hours, Smashing Left-Wing Censors

    ‘Died Suddenly’ blows the lid off of the genocidal depopulation agenda at the heart of the COVID jab scheme. 5 million viewers watched the Stew Peters Network’s new Died Suddenly film within the first 24 hours following its release, and the momentum shows no sign of stopping, with viewership tallies continuing to climb and internet users sharing the groundbreaking new film faster than Big Tech censors can take it down.

  14. Out of control here in down under . Cancer and sudden death exploding . My gym has plenty of young men and women missing . Most I notice that still come have reduced stamina and strength and sweat profusely. A few people I talk 2 , I don’t talk to many people have sworn off the rat juice . For most it’s 2 late . No death dementia zombie instead . Starting to beleive the 5g and radiation wave theories . Plugged in zombies then bang

Comments are closed.