Housing Rollover Snowballing Now

The important part of why the rollover is what matters now.

Simply, when interest rates were at historic lows (less than half the rates of the Great Depression era) when a million-dollar home was sold, the majority of funds would be paid to the seller on closing.  However, as interest rates have gone up, the “big paydays” for sellers are over and done.

As a result, while homes may still be on the market, the net to sellers is coming down – and fast.

Now we fast-forward to the Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic Home Prices report just out and remind you that this data is very much rear facing; the homes involved in this likely sold 2-months (or longer) ago.  Inspections, title search, funding, and then registering the sales – this stuff all takes time.

So, given there is hysteresis in this data (Two months? That’s how I think of this…) we can see how real estate was rolling before the Turkeys came out:

NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 29, 2022: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 10.6% annual gain in September, down from 12.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.7%, down from 12.1% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 10.4% year-over-year gain, down from 13.1% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in September. Miami led the way with a 24.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 23.8% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 17.8% increase. All 20 cities reported lower
price increases in the year ending September 2022 versus the year ending August 2022.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1.0% month-over-month decrease in September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -1.4% and -1.5%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.8%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.2%. In September, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.

We will leave you with the friendly reminder that if you rent a home, you’re making someone else rich, since you’ve got to have a place to live anyway.  You’re usually better off “paying yourself first” by owning your own home, if you can swing it.

Just remember, like some other investments, don’t over-trade and remember the average home is held seven years, or longer and that’s when the money begins to pile up in your corner.

The unexpectedly glum report has flipped market futures negative, so we would not be surprised to see another snowball pick up speed – the Wave 3 (3)(i) decline is looking ever more likely, now.

OK, write when you get rich,


16 thoughts on “Housing Rollover Snowballing Now”

  1. “interest rates were at historic lows”

    Remember assumable mortgages? I don’t think those around anymore but would come in handy when trying to sell into higher rates.

    Just about any way an average folk can gain advantage has been taken.

    • If you are a Veteran you can still assume a mortgage from another Veteran if it is a VA loan. This includes assuming the mortgage from yourself [to remove another persons name off of said mortgage, with the other persons consent, costs = $1 ]. Check w VA. As far as other mortgages go I have no idea. Check with a qualified advisor. lol .

  2. If GovDome plans on introducing a Digital Federal Dollar currency, then it would seem that they would need to bail out a failing “respectable” cryptocurrency in order to maintain the General Public Image of Digital Money as being as good as “Real” money.

    The introduction of a Digital Federal Dollar would probably have to be done coercively — trapping the “Public” between a rock and a hard place.

    Control and Taxation via Intelligence. “Barter” would have to be made very illegal with big fines and much negative “Public Information” to build Goodthink and Rightthink in the public mind.

  3. Yep time and price and the old Italian bloke Fibonacci . Good advice from George on all fronts regards the state of play . Only numbers matter rest is noise . And thanksgiving always marks changes in market direction. Stay short

  4. “McGregor, in an interview with Fox News, said that Europeans are tired of sending money and equipment to the Ukrainian “black hole”.

    I wonder If that is any indication that the horrors of war is about over.. OR… Do the puppeteers want to keep it rolling to keep their enterprises in full operation. If they do then they have to decide that we all go in full force..
    Will we do what was originally asked and pull our nukes off of russia’s border.. and guarantee them that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO..
    seems a little sudden to me.. but then.. winter is here and they need gas to heat their homes.. who rebuilds the pipeline.. who pays for it..

    • “President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed theestablishment of a special court, supported by the United Nations, to investigate and prosecute the crime of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
      The EU and Russia are not just moving head-on but are laying the foundations for globalisation of the conflict.”

      Well .. in this mornings news.. I think we get a pretty good indication at what direction that the puppeteers want this thing to move in..
      I still think it is absolutely amazing how a couple hundred people can control billions of people.. took a long time for that group to manipulate and position themselves.. Now we wait..If the EU and NATO is pushing the globalization of the ukraine situation..
      then the question I have that comes up.. Will Biden do an afghanistan and say no more.. or will he say yes I commit all the US citizens and their money to this war…. if he does that.. would there be a draft right away.. since I am pretty sure that we all are thinking that NK China etc.. will be getting active to..and we just don’t have the manpower or the equipment to hold off a war like that..

      • Its hard to give up those enterprises they have built there.. I totally get it.. but.. are they worth enough to them to invest in the money they have made off of those enterprises to keep this thing running .. or are they still planning on the people working fast food to fund this and general labor to fund this for them..

    • Well .. considering the news that the EU Nato etc.. is considering making a special court and taking this global..
      If there is and we do commit and this goes global.. there will more than likely have to be a draft…
      SO…. think about this for a minute……
      Where is BLM and Antifa.. on that one why don’t we see a race across the USA saying no we won’t go.. or why does a congressmans kid get to stay home and we go… we seen the affects from one cop in a high crime area detaining a man with a criminal past for a crime over doing his detaining and a man dies.. they marched across the USA did billions of dollars worth of damage.. pillaged businesses and rapes violence on every street corner..
      so in a draft.. who goes.. the kids in families of influence… the family members of congress or the President.. NOOO.. they usually get a cushy job away from the drama..
      its the poor boys from the Hood the Gheto blasters.. that are put up front to die.. sure they use the lottery etc.. but
      special exemptions exist.. the same way prisons are filled ..

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  6. G, lay off the cracked pipe, billionaires and corporations pay a much lower tax rate than the middle class, thanks to your Ex-Saviour in Chief, Trumpty Dumpty Donny! Your denial of what the Republican tax cut has done indicates you hide in your dark echo chamber cave way too much!


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