Without trying to sound prophetic, we are expecting the market to put on something of an early rally, since the stock market decline caught a lot of people (but not us) by surprise.
You’ll remember a while back; we offered this potential roadmap of where things might go?
Well, yeah, that’s right. We explicitly tabled this outlook two and a half weeks ago in UrbanSurvival Inflation’s Still the Problem: Sucker Rallies and Sillyticks. And here we are on the verge of a decisive breakdown this week.
Before we update the chart (and outlook) a comment on the “gambler’s streak” many people have.
Bitcoin is still in the mid $16-thousands this morning and it’s really about all you need to know about market bubble collapses. The speed at which they happen gives plenty of time for hype.
As you know, both the Aggregate (stock) Index we keep, and the price of BTC peaked on the same November 8th day in 2021. The BTC decline from $68,000 levels to present demonstrates the optimism and denial of investors.
In order to “get the life of your dreams” there’s an ugly secret, You need to know with some confidence what will be happening in markets two weeks from now. If you don’t have a handle on that, you’re better off paying down debt and parking money in an FDIC box until you can learn how to know what’s coming.
One of the biggest investment stories of the day is this one: Life-Insurance Payouts Hit Record $100 Billion in 2021 – WSJ. Important why? Because insurance companies make money via long-term investing. And when they have to pay off on a lot of insurance, it means they have to sell assets. Things like stocks. Now look around you…
Another big dynamic to consider is revealed in Covid deaths skew older, reviving questions about ‘acceptable losses’. The psychological battlefield is getting crazy – and perhaps deliberately so – because as we set up the story yesterday, the majority of people dying “of Covid” have been vaccinated.
But besides the partisanship angles to this, there’s the ripple into future as dead people won’t be claiming as much Social Security when the fund has to go on self-sustaining mode when the (named by liars) “trust fund” wears out.
These are just a few of the “Big Picture” fundamentals you need to track and understand the gearing for. We’ll touch a few others (pending rail strike and so forth) in a moment.
Point so far is not (another) Ure happy dance (“told you so!“) but rather to alert you that we will be in position this week (or really good news or bad) to move violently in markets.
Which Gets Back to Point
The early futures today have our Elliott wave view looking like this:
Clearly, the addition of the lower trend channel should give you more hints about what goes on around here: “Seeing possible market futures” is not a science so much as an artform. Because it’s a synthetic vision of future based on Elliott wave, trend (regression) channels, and a host of technical indicators including on-balance volume, differential stochastics, and differential parabolic SAR’s and the MACD and… well, you get the idea.
At this level of play, yes, it takes in a huge swath of data, but equally important is how the data is used in context because that matters most.
Put another way, if you believe in anything, your odds of being good at trading become automatically impaired. Money doesn’t care what people believe. It just does what it’s doing and a steely-eyed view (like spotting the whole crypto bubble as a manic society-wide Ponzi scheme) is a prerequisite for success.
Even now, however, there is still a bullish case, but it seems likely to fail over the next two weeks. But we shall see. Don’t believe anything – just trade the market and that means the tape. Everything else is irrelevant, though likely more morally defensible.
During his visit, my consigliere and I were talking about “small trader” types, and he has one acquaintance who reliably pulls $750,000 a year out of a smallish (under $30,000) trading account. His “trick?” He has built his own set of trading rules and they work. Really, really well.
Everyone wants a shortcut, though, and that’s why people with no knowledge of Ponzi schemes, programming, or utility values keep jumping right into the Next Big Thing. Becoming Losers in the process.
Digital Loser Watch
Shocked by this? U.S. crypto exchange Bitfront shuts down – CGTN
Even more perplexing is how – even now – after losing more than 76 percent from the top last November – the Coinsters and Cryptocons are still singing praises of digital tulips.
Astounding. All we can do is point out the facts at the roadside: The New York Times Is in the Tank for Crypto – The American Prospect. Oh, and what’s this? BlockFi, 8 Affiliates File For Bankruptcy; Point Out FTX Exposure As Reason Behind Collapse (ibtimes.com).
Singing the high praise of digital collapse is as good an indicator of stupidity as putting a Biden 2024 sign in your front yard.
And we continue asking “How will crypto clear when miners go offline?” Bitcoin Miner Aggressive Selling Continues This November (coingape.com)
When you’ve covered news long enough, you’ll come to appreciate the really novel stories. Like when I was covering the D.B. Cooper case in 1971, it was refreshing. Because it was novelty. Going through the headlines today? Not so novel. Fine detail-level changes, but the News Wheel keeps on spinning out the same old shit, mainly. We here give it a spin and you’ll see what I mean.
Volcanos have been blowing up virtually forever. So not much novel to Mauna Loa eruption: 10 pictures as world’s largest active volcano erupts in Hawaii except how close to people’s homes the lava will flow.
Presidential overreach has been a Founding issue and – looking surprised yet? – still is: U.S. Supreme Court to hear fight over Biden immigration enforcement policy.
Voter fraud is another one of those perpetual stories, too: Allied stories like Arizona Secretary of State’s Office files lawsuit against Cochise County (ktar.com.
“Duck and Cover” age readers will find little new in present day wars and dueling propaganda machines: Nato will not ‘back down’ in supporting Ukraine against Russia. In the end, wars have evolved from killing people to building economies. Progress? Is that what you call it?
Wait for Iran to flash, this is a useful historical context: Today marks the 75th anniversary of the Partition of Palestine, turned in 1977 into a day of solidarity with Palestine (wafa.ps)
And the Climate Clown Posse is on the march in (brain damaged) Europe: Dutch Government To Seize And Close 3,000 Farms To Comply With EU Environmental Rules. If you don’t have gardening skills, you may not have a future.
OK, off to wait for the Housing numbers – we’ll update that about 8:15 AM Central.
Write when you get rich,