Search Results for: january 13

The market is going to rally this morning – and it might even make it back up to 1,840 on the S&P.  But we play the long game around here, and so we begin this morning with a very somber outlook for markets, except as our Peoplenomics subscribers have known for weeks, it won’t be somber around here because anyone with half a brain can make as much (or more) money when markets are going down, compared to when they are going up.  It’s just that that the American public has been hoodwinked into thinking that taking the short side is somehow bad.  Truth is:  Your money doesn’t give a shit.

The market will fall today. It is NOT the end of the world. That comes this summer. Peoplenomics subscribers, though, have to be deliriously happy with our Trading Model which has, for about the past three weeks been setting up on a “replay of summer 2011” and which I trade quite publicly. It’s one thing to have a trading model that keeps you in the Big Trends, but it’s another to bet against it and the market as I have been.

Tomorrow will be an interesting one – it’s when the new unemployment report (for March) will be released. It’s almost predictable that the report will show either a stable, or slightly improving jobs picture. But what may not be clear is how many jobs are real (not taxpayer supported) and what portion are thanks to increased government spending. But we do have a couple of clues to help guide us, in this regard, which are out this morning. The Balance of Trade report and the Challenger Job cuts.

Peoplenomics readers will remember our December 18, 2013 edition where I called into question whether social media would be around any longer than CB radio, Pet Rocks, or Hoola Hoops. Of course, all three are still around today. It’s just that they are no longer manias like they were, each, once upon a time. My concern about “social” was simple: I wondered whether it was much of a business model because it’s time-circular.

I have been telling you for a long time that deflation was the big bogeyman in America’s future, which is why there is such a hype to drag us into some kind of major conflict right now. War is good for the economy and – if enough damage can be done – there’s economic stimulus, a basis for raising taxes, and government asserting even more control of individual humans who deviate from “offishul” group-think. Now, part of the evidence of deflation has been that while prices have been going up as a roughly 2% rate in the consumer price index, I’ve been telling you that the Fed is increasing the money supply by dramatically higher levels. But even old pessimistic Ures truly was not ready for the shocking pumping of the M1 money supply in last night’s M1 number in the weekly update to the H.6 money stocks report:

The reason we start off with the Retail Sales figures press release this morning is this old business school axiom that “Nothing happens until someone buys something…” It’s also why you should strike to be in sales as a career, because this is where the money is, in almost any industry you care to name. If you want to get rich, sales is, near, as I can figure, the shortest ladder to the top. We can talk more about this some other time, but with the sales figures this morning, it seems on point. Some of the highest returns in learning you can find are to be had from studying the fine art of selling. And no, it’s not hard, but people, in general have a fear of rejection and there is a good bit of that in sales.

(Amarillo, TX) If you remember yesterday’s column (that’s two of us then) I had mentioned that we were planning to stop at Sewell Lexus in Ft. Worth to have them figure out why the (damn) Check Engine Light (CEL) came on the day before our trip. This is a marvelous opportunity, if you’re a shade-tree mechanic, to brush up on your troubleshooting skills. The symptoms? Check engine light:

Go figure this one out: The Russians actually have their senate VOTE on the use of troops in order to secure their border and the world panics. When the US invades countries, we conveniently forget about Declarations of War. So the only inference I can draw from all this is simple. What’s spooking the market may be John Kerry going to Ukraine, as much as Russia securing its naval base and military resource in Sevastopol.

It looks like our often-stated “double dip” might get legs based on the latest housing index reported out this morning by S&P/Dow Jones in their Case-Shiller report: New York, February 25, 2014 – Data through December 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that National home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%.

In spite of various market predictors putting up charts espousing a replay of 1929 is imminent, a more measured view of long wave economics argues that we won’t have an economic collapse/crash until April 17, or thereabouts. We’ll get into the “blood and guts” of why this weekend for subscribers. But the main thing to be aware of this morning is that on our Peoplenomics side of things, I developed a trading model. And for a number of weeks it has been saying “new highs ahead in the short term.” Advice I promptly discounted thinking the methodology that I’d put into the model was somehow flawed, has been amazingly right.

I assume you know that the death toll in Ukraine’s latest revolution is now heading up toward 50? This as the peace talks and truce worked out last night blew up on the streets, but there’s good reason for that. As I’ve been saying, it’s a three-way international power struggle. The US is backing one (violent) right-winger. The EU faction of the Enterprise is backing another, and as soon as the Sochi Games wrap up, there will likely be some “friendly” Russians showing up in Ukraine (like advisors showed up in Syria) all countries are failing economically and need the jump-start that only a war can provide.