The market going into the open looked like it would open down just a tad. But is this the beginning of collapse? No. A “dead cat bounce” is likely out there in the short-term. Collapses of the Black Monday sort have (almost) never happened more recently than 37-days from a stock market high.
There has been a quiet exodus among some of us “grays” that should cause young people concern. An increasing number are exercising their ability to (as the old airline commercial put it) “”Get up and move around the country.” A cousin of mine, a year or two older, has picked up a winter home in Arizona. My sister is eyeing Sequim, WA, and a long-time pal and her husband are looking at those hills north of Phoenix, too. Their reasons vary, of course.
You don’t have to get up and go to work this morning. I mean unless you really want to. That’s because although the market is likely to open soft and down a bit, on crude oil’s continued decline, there will not likely be much action this week. Next and and into year-end? Maybe then.
Question: What does dream work, a retired Air Force Lt. Colonel, technologies that predict the future, Ures truly, the Republican wins Tuesday, and Diazepam all have in common? Let me answer in reverse order. 1.
So will the rally in the US stock market. The futures are down about 40 points when I looked earlier, though car sales will help, and we can now see how the markets are telegraphing the most likely outcome for tomorrow’s republicon romp. What the markets seem to be telling us about the future scripts out like this: The GOP will win the Senate This will set up a divided government This will be very, very bad for the economy And so we are in buy the rumor, sell the news mode..the news being tomorrow’s election.
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Check back at 8:20 AM Central for the latest Housing data. A look at the calendar is all it takes to figure out what will (likely) happen today and through the balance of the week in markets: The Dow and other indices should post small rises today as this is the end of Q3 and we usually expect to see window-dressing, which in this case may be holding us up. After about mid-day today, after the bonuses are safe for the fund managers I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market decline resume in earnest along about tomorrow, or maybe Thursday.
(Albuquerque, NM) The bad news yesterday was that the bond yield was down, and that drove the US dollar purchasing power UP. That, in turn, meant that it didn’t take as many dollars to buy the same thing as it did before. Or, more practically, if you’d bought the day before, then the number of dollars you’d get for sale of the asset yesterday would have been down., This morning, we see the price of gold is up, which means the dollar is down, which means that the number of dollars needed will move up a bit (or at least should) which should turn the market as the day wears on, although some follow-through selling is expected at the open. If you’re looking for a tool to guide your investments as the gigantic tug of war continues between inflation and deflation, you might consider looking at the Bitcoin prices over here After setting a high near $1,200 back in December of 2013, the price of Bitcoins dropped to almost $350 in mid-April of last year.
(Gig Harbor, WA) OK, enough of the serious stuff. We need a break… When one of the biggest news stories of the week is that Apple has reinvented the watch so that it can put further in debt – and this is hailed as progress – it’s time we put our feet down and get back to food-binging because that’s one of the few pastimes that actually makes sense, anymore. Our “binge” will happen Sunday morning. And the weapon of choice will be French Toast. In the rush to do this & that, I haven’t gotten around to describing chef-daughter Allison’s incredible French toast.
(Gig Harbor, WA) It was a marvelous weekend up here in the Pacific Northwest. Not a care in the world since the sun was out, all the relatives were in marvelous form, and daughter Allison (the award-winning chef) whipped up apple sauce/cream cheese French toast Saturday that was incredible. Dinner at the golf club with the other side of the family was great, too, especially the blow-torched prime rib. Toss in a sci-fi movie festival and laundry for a lazy Sunday and it is such a drag looking at numbers again, I can’t stand it. But look we must and right out of the box the main thing to consider is that deflation is still running full steam.
While we await tomorrow’s federal employment numbers (look for the rate to maybe drop a 10th), we have some early job number previews out this morning: ROSELAND, N.J. – September 4, 2014 – Private sector employment increased by 204,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.
Both the S&P and the NASDAQ hit new records Thursday and while not rich, my long-term out of the money call options on the S&P look less stupid this morning than they did two weeks ago. Before we get into the Janet Yellen FedSpeak this morning in Jackson Ho Wyoming, where the Fedsters run to confab in the summer when it’s miserably hot in most of the rest of the country (48F and rain there this morning), I thought we would push back with a cuppa and do some serious thinking. Biggest problem in the world today? Lack of jobs. Biggest cause of lack of jobs?
Our overnight data run with www.nostrcodeus.com web-sweeping software about puked on the word autopilot which was not how I planned to start this morning’s column. And what it brings into focus is how mass media is massively manic. Here’s the deal: