The market’s jump yesterday was very good news, indeed. With the Dow popping up 228-points there are a couple of ways to read the Dow. One way – and this is the one I’m inclined toward – is this is a massive “Buy the rumor” event. If you watch the market long enough, you can get a sense of it: Sometimes, when “planned news” like the Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon is due, you’ll see a big run-up ahead of time.
Time for another one of our Adult Education Courses in How the World Really Works 101 from our guest lecturer, Mr. Who Me Skeptical? This is not the week you want to be a prophet of doom. Not enough bummers to go around 21-thousand news and doom channels. As predicted by our trading model, the markets took a huge leap skyward off the recent bottom of trend line that we use as our keen insight into whether the world will end (financially), or not.
Three things are a foregone conclusion this morning: 1. The Emperor has not clothes. 2. The jobs report will show rising employment.
OK, now China has gone and done it…lowering interest rates this weekend. That means all the things we have been warning you (about additional deflation) is likely coming along and with it, this morning the major exchanges in Europe have edged back from recent highs. Does this mean it’s time to slap the 55-day timer, since major collapses (and big corrections) don’t usually get organized until well after a major peak? Put another way, airplanes don’t crash in the sky…the crash hitting the ground. Same thing is true for stock markets.
(Near 20’03” NH by 86’23.5” W – about off Cancun, Mexico) Peoplenomics Subscriber Note: The regular Saturday report this week will be posted on Sunday afternoon because I need a lot more bandwidth that what’s here shipboard to run www.nostracodeus.com software scans and get a better bead on what lies ahead.
We begin this morning, like all good middle manager corporate suck-ups (and Jerry McGuire) by asking government to “Show us the Money!” So, presto, faster than you can say “I’d like the sausage and eggs, over easy, hash browns extra crispy, a side of ham, bagel with cream cheese instead of the toast, decaf coffee, side of ham, apple juice, and a piece of pie for desert…make it ala mode with French Vanilla..I also have a peanut allergy and you did get that’s DECAF, right” here is what matters: -0.8% If your order takes a while, the detail level goes like this:
Oh, oh. I bet you’re thinking “There goes George on the Brian Williams story…” but you’d be wrong. That’s just a distant “Who cares?” CNN says he was there, but his chopper didn’t take an RPG but did catch ground fire. The NY Times has a different take Across town, the NY Daily News is now questioning his coverage of hurricane Katrina.
We begin with coffee and context: Here’s a little factoid you may not know, gleaned from the latest Experiment Aircraft Association magazine: In July of 1929, Transcontinental Air Transport began to offer coast-to-coast air service. It had ordered something like ten of the (then new) Ford Trimotor planes. This was before precision GPS approaches, WAAS GPS, and even VORs.
Just out from Case-Shiller/S&P is the latest Housing data: New York, January 27, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2014 shows a continued slowdown in home prices nationwide, but with price increases in nine cities.
I was about to pen one of my long (sometimes laborious) musings and I thought “You know, people might like to know about more topics in less detail…so what don’tcha try that in Friday morning’s epistle?” Well, fine then. Here’s life as seen through the inbox. IF Works At least so far. If you haven’t been paying attention, IF is intermittent fasting.
The is something of a mystery surrounding market action this week. Usually, we expect something of a bounce into option expiration, but there are so many forces running contrariwise in this market that it’s worth looking at a list of factors rather than zooming in on one thing or another as a sole cause: Deflation is still here, and still very real. Then 10-year Treasury hit 1.78% yesterday and if you look at the maximum zoom-out over the past 50 years, or so, here, you will see we’re getting mighty darn close to the 1.
I wanted to begin with a few comments about the “Tyranny of Things” that we all have to deal with. To do so, we need to think in terms of financial pro formas first, however. What is a pro forma? Think of it as the “imaginary set of financial expectations.” A good businessperson doesn’t “just happen” to make money when growing a company.
Oil had smashed down into the $53 and change level in trading t65his morning, so a major market decline should continue. It would be premature of us to start ringing alarm bells, but tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report will deal with some of the “next levels down” should the most recent declines be taken out by the current market slide. Which ought to continue this morning. As for how our outlook was for Monday’s trading? Well, I said… “But I wouldn’t bet on much of anything past the first hour today: