The “Blow Off” Conspiracy

You don’t have to get up and go to work this morning.  I mean unless you really want to. 

That’s because although the market is likely to open soft and down a bit, on crude oil’s continued decline, there will not likely be much action this week.

Next and and into year-end?  Maybe then.

Many Wall St. types are paid based on how well their funds and investments perform for the year.  The easiest way to pocket a big paycheck to handle the Christmas (Hanukah) bills is to have a blow-out fourth quarter.

And to have a screaming year-end closing, technical moves like a decline today are useful.  It lets the big boyz make a lot of last-minute cash while the rest of us ponder a bleak Christmas.

Memo to self:  In next next lifetime, sign up to be a one-percenter.

Maybe the Santa Rally isn’t a formal conspiracy. But, if it works out that way as it has in the past, it wouldn’t be the first time.  And I’m not the only one calling it.

Talk out of Europe that falling growth rates and deflation are a concern, should be about as newsworthy as your breakfast cereal.  Until PPI later in the week, pardon me if I just hit snooze and roll over.

Contrarian View:

From a reader:

I track the January Indicator every year. It gets no respect amongst the world of finance professionals, probably because no one can explain why it works better than chance (about 80 percent accurate for what is essentially a binary system). I have followed it for years and it does seem to be fairly reliable. If it turns out to be correct this year, that means the S&P 500 will finish below 1848.36 on its last trading day of 2014. Having closed at 2075.37 on Friday, that means it will have to go down 227 points in the next 24 days. Maybe the big correction is about to start.

Um, …don’t think so…Unless my Disney $85 options pay off, I’m gonna blame Santa and his stupid rally for trashing my returns this year and threaten to loot and riot if anyone questions it.  Speaking of which…

Revolutionary Notebook

Let’s have a pop quiz: 

If you really wanted to change future behavior of police around the country, which would cause police to be more thoughtful when applying force

a.  Massive lawsuits that cost police departmentd 10 of millions of dollars and federal guidelines? Or.

b.  Demonstrations that turn violent and encourage police departments to continue their militarization?

To me the answer is simple:  Costly wrongful death lawsuits, restrictions on other cash resources like civil asset forfeiture, and federal checks seems like the easy “right” answer.

But unfortunately, despite an unearned reputation for being “intellectuals” more violence over the Garner case – this time in Berkeley –  simply underscores my contention that people aren’t particularly bright and are easily led around by media an agitators.

Over my lifetime, I’ve never seen a single government policy changed by riot (it’s like waving a red flag in front of a bull).  But a proper ass-kicking in a court of competent jurisdiction, upheld on appeal, and followed by a huge (verge in mind-bobbling) check to the plaintiffs?  Well THAT is what changes government policy, not smashing the shops of innocent merchants and stuff.

Citizen Review Boards are a quaint idea, but not so useful as major lawsuit settlements.

More after this…

Birthing the Global Caliphate

The European Union’s foreign policy chief is begging Turkey to get fully into the fight against ISIS.

Apparently, he missed our Coping section this morning but from here, this is looking like a wasted sales call on a country which is already 67% Sunni and not unfriendly to Wahhabi,.

Libya Dawn lost 8 members in fighting this weekend, but Islamic extremism is alive and healthy in Libya.

Saudis have contained oil in the $65 region…which will lead to shut-ins and laydowns in the US.

In Yemen, everyone is blaming everyone else for the rescue of an American hostage gone bad.  We’re noq in the sad position of waiting for the next beheading, not wondering about the IF part. 

As much as we don’t endorse mass killing, a single nuke into a terrorism enclave might send a message to that part of the world.  But, it’s one we’re not going to nut-up and do yet…we’ll just wait till that side has more nukes than they do now…which is all kinds of stupid, but there you have it.

A Swiss national escaped from Islamic fundys in the Philippines this weekend.

And you don’t normally think o Denmark as an Islamic hotspot, but militants there are trying to link up with immigrant gangs.

US policymakers, meantime, continue to be derelict when comers to our borders and policies.

Budget Week

There’s a trillion dollars of budget stuff due to be decided by congress this week (emphasis on the con part).  Go ahead…bet me if anyone will read the whole thing which ought to be packed with uglies.

Troubles of Rolling Stone

Rolling Stone, embarrassed by the date rape story that has blown up on them has now altered its apology.

What most people don’t realize is the real winner on the date rape story blow-up  is that it damages the creds of RS and in particularly the efforts of Matt Taibbi who has been whacking away at the roots of financial evil for some years now.

It makes it just that much easier for “the street” to marginalize Taibbi’ reports of misfeasance.  I can just here it now.  “You’re going to believe that congressman?  A story from Rolling Stone?”

Oh, yeah, Wall St. won big.  This date rape story blowup is just gold for them, man.