Stock Futures were pointing to a weak open, earlier. Buoyed when better than expected import prices data hit. But this doesn’t mean the downside won’t open over the weekend. In fact, this weekend could be early. As a result, we’re going to “sit this one out.” An old investing axiom is “The Crowd is usually … Read More
There is a reason our Peoplenomics report Wednesday focused on the light-up (into World War 3). Because the waveforms are screaming odds of a replay of 1929 are materializing before us. Consider this view of the pre-Depression Dow and our own Aggregate Index work which is a meta index more suited to widely dispersed modern markets: We … Read More
My consigliere’s concept that “World War 1” is replaying in Ukraine – very much in the tradition of Guns of August – continues to ring true. We can skip the question of whether there will be a third Battle of Tannenberg (read on the seccond one here), but yes, it’s in Poland. And that’s why the escalation … Read More
No, you won’t find “huriquakes” in the O.E.D. But it was something mentioned Saturday morning to our Peoplenomics subscribers: “What not many are aware of is the problem of Earthquakes that can accompany very low-pressure systems. The Los Angeles Times mention, as long ago as 1988 that low pressure could be a driver of earthquakes: Air … Read More
Recognize the Dates? The first date is easy. It’s when the stock market blowdown in October of 1929 was initially OVER. The market had peaked September 3, 1929. Like ours did in this longwave economic cycle on November 8, 2021. The markets fell – worried about future prospects – until finally staging a good rally. … Read More
Two snips of Jobs Data ahead of the “Offishall” numbers tomorrow. ADP Job creation report? Still strong-ish but pay’s going up. ROSELAND, N.J. – June 1, 2023 – Private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May and annual pay was up 6.5 percent year-over-year, according to the May ADP® National Employment Report. To us, … Read More
Stock futures were pointing to another down opening to markets. In the wake of the Fed hike Wednesday to the highest level in 16-years. Naturally, loving free dough, we snagged a little “lunch money” in the deal, but (I know this will sound odd) there’s no real pleasure to making a few bucks on a … Read More
This being Technical Tuesday, I want to focus a little attention on A.I. because “we small humans” have gotten a lot of past, dangerous, scary technology mostly wrong. Two examples are radio’s invention and atomic physics. Chosen because they demonstrate what happens when a technology is “done right – sort of – and when it’s done dead … Read More
My consigliere – a wizened tax attorney – is more than slightly savvy on Money. He was projecting an “economic showdown with China” as early as 1979. And here we are… So, when he called to talk about the “hollow money” problem – we both (being students of Long Wave Economics – knew exactly what … Read More
Ure has turned over a new leaf: shorter reports. Just not today. Job Cuts First Second horse pick in the weekly financial trifecta: Challenger Job Cuts: “Job Cuts Rise 15% in March 2023, Up 319% from Same Month Last Year, Highest Q1 Since 2020 | Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. (challengergray.com) Which then continues with … Read More
Latest Case-Shiller/S&P report just out: “Data released today for January 2023 show that the trend of declining home price gains continued across the United States with declining prices reported in the San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, and Seattle markets. YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census … Read More
Hard to make sense of the world through press off ejaculate “pressers” which artfully pick and choose morality to suit agitprop goals. However, through the lenses of history and economics, a pattern begins to fill in. And so, as near as we can figure it, the Weimar (II) has been saved by Powell as the … Read More
There’s too much going on to mess with flowery language today. We have a ton to cover before the next leg down. But we need, like the Air Force 2025 study did, circa 1996, to consider the long-term historical “Where’ve we been?” and “Where we are going?” kind of questions. Bank runs and Crypto’s role … Read More