My consigliere’s concept that “World War 1” is replaying in Ukraine – very much in the tradition of Guns of August – continues to ring true.
We can skip the question of whether there will be a third Battle of Tannenberg (read on the seccond one here), but yes, it’s in Poland. And that’s why the escalation by Ukraine with drones attacking along the Russia-Estonian border is such a big deal.
The theater of war is getting bigger. And, if you know where to look, you’ll catch the odd picture – as in the story Carnage on the 1st defensive “Surovikin Line”: Hundreds of Ukrainians sacrificed on a narrow strip of land – Kiev plays it all out with main offensive towards Tokmak– where you can see the beginnings of (*hate to even write this) the return of trench warfare.”
Trench warfare, you’ll remember, was “the thing” along the Western Front when the Great Powers, hard at it in WWI, dumped men, munitions, mustard gas, and money into efforts to halt the Kaiser.
Thankfully, humankind has progressed a lot, since then. We have the threat of nukes in lieu of mustard gas, we’ve got an eastern front, not a western Maginot line. But give it time, the replays are starting to roll hard and heavy now. And again, France is losing ground.
We frame this part of the “replay” as The Manufacturer’s Resource Wars. Because the current Great Powers are coming to understand that just having big civilian populations to pay their government’s tribute (taxes) all falls apart IF you don’t have food and a sociopolitical sales plan to keep people motivated.
The West is rolling with the “Hate Marketing” plan – which became apparent when “terrorism” was rolled out. While the communists of Russia and Beijing seem to have opted for more raw nationalism. In particular, the Russians wanting to redraw national borders to those of Catherine the Great.
OK, pause and pivot.
Now that we have a clear view – and the first of what will devolve into multiple fronts (Taiwan and the Korean Península (N.Korea says it fired ballistic missiles in response to US, South Korea military drill), at a minimum, but with a possible AmRev2 at home (since the Constitution is being deprecated), what becomes critical is food and resources.
Which explains the second colonial collapse this month being suffered by France. As one report sums up: Gabonese coup: France ends after 60 years – Defense agreements cancelled – West loses world’s largest manganese mines.
Taiwan, then, becomes the third suspect in the MRW (Manufacturer’s Resource Wars). Because while not particularly rich in minerals, they do have a fine crop (besides their spirulina) of fine-pitch semiconductors. Which is a good part of what powers the American A.I. bubble and the recent amazing run of NVidia stock.
The Uranium War is pending in Niger. Even as Italy Fears Military Solution to Niger Crisis Could Foment Migration, the rest of the Resource Colonialists will be trying to do what’s right (for them): EU ministers to tackle Niger coup response at Spain meeting. France is losing more than colonies – they stand to lose nuclear power longer-term.
Job Cut Report
Just out from Challenger:
“U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 557,057 jobs, a 210% increase from the 179,506 cuts announced in the same period last year. It is the highest January-August total since 2020, when 1,963,458 cuts were recorded. It is the third-highest year-to-date total since 2009.
“Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy,” said Andrew Challenger, labor expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
You may be wondering where HR has been rolling the grenades?
“Warehousing led all industries in August with 32,123, primarily on the bankruptcy of Yellow Corp. It is now the fifth-leading industry in job cut announcements this year with 42,768, a 456% increase from the 7,689 cuts announced through the same period in 2022.
The Technology sector leads all industries through July with 149,142, though monthly cuts in the sector have slowed. In August, the industry announced plans to cut 3,198 positions, the lowest monthly total for the sector since June 2022 when 1,266 cuts were recorded.
Just after the report came out, early futures were up 160 on the Dow. Sadomasochistic pricing? As in “higher job cuts may slow Fed hikes to come?” Dream on. First, you need an economy, friend.
Shockingly, the major financial media we monitor haven’t bothered even mentioning the report in the first 45-minutes after its release. Accident or media control, you make the call.
As you know, I’m big on “framing terms.” New words and combinations that help you think clearly. Kind of like RISC in computers, but for humans. Anyway, take a read of CNBC: As recession fears fade, we may be experiencing a ‘richcession’ instead — here’s what that means for you. Essentially, the meek are still working but the layoffs are coming for white collar workers. Surmagine what a Richcession will do in your circle.
The Unemployment Experience
On a state basis from Labor:
Believe the Hype or the Charts?
“Narrative” is so much kinder than the word “fairytale.” Consequently, we will note that Ukraine’s narrative is as upbeat as ever. Thus, the early futures today were positive ahead of the Job Cuts report. And the Globalist marionettes, including the U.S., NATO, and (once) Great Britain are still offering up taxpayer sacrifice to help Ukraine along. New UK defence secretary names support for Ukraine among priorities.
Slowly, both sides are working their way through old and outdated weapons until the latest in the inventory will be pressed into service. Beyond which there are bigger and (dare we say) flashier tools yet ahead.
Global markets are not taking this at all seriously, yet. The myth of adequate resources to keep eight billion people happy is persistent. The white arrow in this chart is where the opening pop will take us today while the smaller yellow area is the longer-term upper trend line. Either one is a dandy “turn candidate” for the decline which will be (yellow scale) Wave 3 down to assert itself.
Everyone’s Getting Hurried
Post hurricane cleanup is being pushed along quickly: Avoiding catastrophe, Florida’s Gulf Coast begins cleanup from Hurricane Idalia | Reuters. To the northeast, the storm’s about to head out to sea. But not before Idalia threatens Carolinas with treacherous rain and flooding after pounding Florida and damaging thousands of homes.
Also being hurried along are the courts. As in NY AG Letitia James seeks immediate verdict in fraud lawsuit against Donald Trump. But we have a “not so fast, there, lady” in the form of Orban called on the US to “Bring Back Trump” to End the War in Ukraine.
We don’t know whether “there’s a doctor in the house?” But one’s sure needed in the Senate: Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell appears to have another possible medical episode – UPI.com
Playing the play money: BTC was hanging around $27,200 earlier today after kissing $28,000 this week. More interesting was Robinhood Wallet Expands Crypto Offering to Add Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum Swaps – Decrypt.
Around the Ranch: Planting Weekend
Off to the feed store in a couple of minutes. Making a run for a 50-pound bag of alfalfa pellets. Which, in case you didn’t realize, is one of the better garden soil amendments you can buy. Fertilizes and is organic. Won’t burn your plants. How do you beat that? Also on the shopping list are a couple of bales of hay for mulching and composting.
The Pomodoro Gardener article on Peoplenomics this week is really turning into fun.
As soon as the feed store load is off the truck, I’ll be on TinkerCad designing a new stand-up seeder. That (and maybe even a free .STL file to print on your 3D printer) will be along for ShopTalk Sunday.
Oh, did an old man on Medicare aorta screening Wednesday morning. “No evidence of abdominal aortic aneurysm is visualized.” Odds have increased of making it to 75 next year… Like the tech told me, it’s a good test to have your PCP order for you when older. Because most aneurysms are diagnosed post mortem… Good medicine is staying ahead of the curve.
Write when you get rich,