Rethinking Synthetic Growth (1)

We focus this morning on our methods of thinking about odd topics like synthetic growth of the economy.  This is part one of two; in this we outline the approach to model future investment opportunities.  The, Saturday, we will “populate the model” and use it as a ‘future-scope.’

In this morning’s ChartPack, we will blast away on an old Johnny Cash song )”I walk the line”) as we patiently wait for a decisive break in the market.  Perhaps after today’s Fed announcement?

First, to the headlines and bean…

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8 thoughts on “Rethinking Synthetic Growth (1)”

  1. Will the Summer be a Bull or Bear?
    OPEN 6/6/18 Close 6/12/18 $10,000 grew to
    SPXL $46.33 $47.93 $10,345
    SPXS $25.50 $24.63 $9,659

    Off subject, could nuclear test & dump sites explain Moth Man & Werewolf Like Dog sightings? As NK dismantles it nuclear sites, what mutations will they find.

    PS: Bigfoot is not a result of nuclear fallout.

  2. NVDA & bitcoin. NVIDIA is the king of the mountain when it comes to producing graphics processing units. And the discovery that GPUs can be used to power cryptocurrency mining (think digital currencies like Bitcoin), self-driving cars, and “deep learning” (a powerful form of artificial intelligence) has been huge for the company.

    The problem is with bitcoin price dropping, it will reduce NVDA earnings in this area.

  3. Re: yesterday’s “So CoreLogic finds the lowest delinquency rate in 10 yrs”…did they also mention the new ‘subprime’?

    And take a look at the rise in covenant lite loans:

    Educational debt is also downgraded:

  4. Of all Chinese inventions, the civil service and bureaucracy has to be the absolute worst! The link to the EPA site made me absolutely nauseous. That agency should have never been allowed. We now live in a prescriptive world, where real innovation or lifestyle change is proscribed by regulations, under penalty of bankruptcy.

    My heating/cooling costs are near zero in actual dollars, and insulation is the least of it. Insulation and infiltration blocking are important for comfort, but changing lifestyles such that little of anything is wasted is key. Modern codes require massive systems, large area glazing, and all utilities to remain active at all times. Designing a 100 mpg car would be a piece of cake if it weren’t for all the conflicting regulations that must be complied with. No wonder that an entire generation has virtually bugged out to the land of videogames and facebook.

  5. Dear Mr. Ure,

    Isn’t it simply like an invigorating octane boost of fuel to the bloodstream to be told of the favorable Trump-Kim Summit statements? The gathering at Sentosa (“peace and tranquility”) Island, formerly known as “island of death from behind”, along with a WH mockumentary trailer is possibly head and shoulders above Chamberlain’s return from Munich.

    Weren’t you absolutely chuffed to see event security overseen by Singapore’s Gurka Contingent? Hand-picked by the British Army in Nepal and Gurkas have offered “loyalty to The Crown” since 1815!

    As you’re probably aware, The Capella Hotel bromance photo-op included the opulent surroundings of the former British Officers’ Buildings. “It’s all about the tradition” as The Duke of Edinburgh might say.

    One is suitably impressed with the quiet manner in which the billionaire Singaporean family conducts business with their newly acquired Capella Resort. Their hundreds of millions in cash then tripled with Asian financing has become a lifeline to New York’s 53W53 supertall skyscraper development. Perhaps it’s not an impossibility for the Capella Hotel’s previous US equity fund co-owner’s presentations to US Congressional committees for a 60 year USVI resort lease to not fall upon deaf ears.

    Do try to keep the wretched noise down with those mega-media conglomerates heating up their takeover bids of smaller fry again. Between AT&T and Comcast, one leaning Democrat and one Republican, we shall hunker down comfortably to watch lobbyists’ trench warfare in the Battles for Hills 20002 and 20003.

    Please excuse us now while we seek exit to some finer airs.

  6. You are probably not going to like my answer, but I absolutely support each and every EPA, State and federal law when it comes to housing. It ensures quality. When the average home is priced at well north of $1.5 million…buyers tend to kick the tires a little bit more aggressively. They demand absolute perfection. (as they should at these prices) The house that checks off all of the inspection boxes…will sell faster and at a higher price than any other home. And, these tough regulations create ancillary jobs. There are companies that do quality check ups on items like insulation, proper strapping of water heaters, fire rated doors into the garage, proper materials used in plumbing, roofing, electrical and proper GFCI and AFCI compliance…Then there is foundation, termite, and other pest requirements. And don’t forget carbon monoxide and proper smoke detector compliance. I make each and every one of my sellers do inspection reports up front to disclose any defects in the home they are selling. I tell them the better the report…the higher the price. I sell every home at an average of $200,000 over list as a result.

    These regulations are an absolute necessity. It’s the home we live in and raise our kids in. It’s the difference between buyer a used car from a shady outfit..with no maintenance history in the boonies…or a certified, totally CarFaxed used car specialist at a dealership. You get what you pay for.

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