Not an especially hard call to make in advance. Since the latest consumer debt numbers from the Feral Reserve (sic) showed in their most recent window, credit card sales going up at an 11% annualized rate. Despite what is being talked about on the left as an “ever-pending recession” (it’s what happens when the left can’t find proof of collusion), the economy keeps elevating. Or, real or not, since stock buy-backs artificially inflate things, people ACT like the good times are here.
Enough foreplay? Well, here’s the Retail Sales snapshot:
And now the blah-blah:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $526.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2018. Total sales for the June 2019 through August 2019 period were up 3.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2019 to July 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.1 percent). Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2019, and 4.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 16.0 percent (±1.4 percent) from August 2018, and motor vehicles and parts dealers were up 6.8 percent (±1.9 percent) from last year. (blah-blah-blah…)
Here’s something to ponder: The morning of September 5th, what was our headline? (Hint: Synthetic Blow-Off? Impacts of a GCCD_. The S&P the previous day had closed at 2,937.78. Based on early futures this morning, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market trade through 3,024. That’s 7 trading days. Almost 3%, but let’s use 2.9%.
At this rate, and assuming only 250 trading days in a year, that would be a 270% annualized rate. (My head spins…) That’s what a blow-off “ditto cam” of 1929 would look like – until a month-in, people sobered up.
Speaking of “Sobering”
Fed money creation data for the week.
If you own a home, and are still paying on a mortgage, put “Send Love Note to Fed” on your Friday list: This kind of money-creation is sure to keep real estate prices high, until the “moment of sobriety.”
Also try to remember: In alcoholism and drug abuse, people hit bottom. In economics, the problems become clear when people hit the top.
The Growth Dart
The nation’s addiction to “making up money” (MUM economics) thus becomes clear. While the Wall St. Journal headlines “Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019 Forecasters in survey expect GDP will increase 2.2%, falling short of Trump’s goal.”
We’d suggest the “economists surveryed” list be changed up to include a few of us who understand “making up money” more clearly. Because if you make up enough money, you can card any growth rate imaginable – on up to 20 percent, or more. As long as the nation’s contract law holds together so that leveraged borrowers can pay off their debts with vastly cheaper money, anything is possible.
‘dem Crats Trolling Sucka’s
Ure’s truly managed to sleep through the crat that was on the prez-dented “:debate” last night. I’d been up since 1 AM working on PN, and then got the tractor running and a full 16-hour day.
Last thing on my (somewhat) rational mind was watching American Cullinary Cons – Free Lunch Finals – which from the reviews is what it came down to.
Major Learning Points:
- Yang is an idiot. (So we’re clear: Idiotism is a processor issue, not an IQ or Income issue).Every revolutionary economist in the world (myself included) that Finland axes the much-touted universal income tst run for two years. Did people on the receiving end like free money? HELL YEAH. (Who wouldn’t, see idiotism def.) But did it table results? I mean, if you’re running for president, you would look at the dfamn data, right? Fer-zample: “Heikki Hiilamo, Professor of Social Policy at the University of Helsinki, comments on the preliminary results of Finland’s basic income experiment: Effects on the labour market were minimal, and survey results demonstrating that basic income recipients had better subjective well-being can be questioned.”
- Speedo Uncorked is an idiot. He wants to impound “assault weapons” The problem is with soft-soaping communists (which is what socilists are) is that if you want to throw out one sentence in a contract (The Constitution is a contract, right?) what will he axe next? Just one clause? No, the left has been systematically dismembering “The Contract” for a long time and anyone who wants to keep up the attack should renounce their citizenship because they’re obviously in the wrong country. We’ll go to far as to buy Speedo a one-way ticket to Venezuela – ah, the worker’s paradise – where I’m sure he’d be more comfortable among his comrades. When one “right goes” the rest are in trouble. “Just this once…” is one of the biggest lies in the world.
There was more. ABC as a talk-aways piece over here. Me? Glad I slept through it. My take-away? Idiocy may be the missing “weak force” in quantum mechanics.
NHTSA probing reports that Nissan Rogue’s automatic emergency braking system is faulty. Can the investigation be stopped?
A Ban on Flavored E-Cigarettes Would Sharply Cut Sales. Did they figure this out by themselves or did they have help?
Newfound Comet Likely an ‘Interstellar Visitor,’ Russian Scientists Say. Finally, something for the Biburu crowd – which is a crowd very much like the “We know there’s collusion, but we just haven’t found it yet” crowd.
Our favorite Houston reader (there are three) sent us a wonderful story – edited to remove personally identifying info:
“Many years ago I was picking up a dear friend who had flown into Hobby for a huge IT conference being held at the Hyatt downtown. She wrinkled up her nose as we were loading her luggage into my car asking me what was that ghastly smell. I looked at her, smiled, and replied, “Money.” She knew nothing about Oil Patch; when she left to fly back to L.A. she knew a whole lot more. “
Included was a (terribly link-laden) story in the Houston Chronical here which has ghastly pictures of pollution.
Thing is, the story has been around for almost six-months. See the coverage on Quartz back in Apil. What we find so curious (other than the lists not maching among all the versions of this one the web). And, depending on which version of the story you read, the data c an either be from the EPA data tools page (you can look this stuff up directly) OR you you can visit the American Lung Association page.
Here’s the thing: Depending on which metric, timeframe, and so forth, our erstwhile stringer in Houston may be living in the 24th worst air pollution or the 9th.
What we therefore find so interesting is not the data so much as it’s the emergence of a new kind of media: Linkfotainment.
25 Best Citiues to Retire, 30 Best Bikinis…stories (including this air quality compilation) that aren’t really useful (unless you plan to retire and move, buy a bikini (not on my list today), or move to a better airshed.
Linkfotainment deserves to be recognized as an art form, much as propagand…which is mostly what it is, when all the pop-ups are blocked.
OK…moron the morrow..write when you…whatever…