Silicon Valley Bank is likely not to be the only bank in this period to go down. Because in our work in long wave economics, for more than 20-years, the severity of economic recessions (and “depressions”) the number of failing banks in a period is a good (early) indicator as to severity.
For example, in the Dot Com Bust, less than three dozen banks failed. The Housing Bust saw more than 500 folded.
And now we see the “Leading Edge of Tainter” – the urge to walk out and away from a failing economy – with the takeover this week of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
In addition, the break becomes even more stark when we roll out this weeks update (in our ChartPack) to the long-running Replaying 1929 charts. The next few weeks could be a 24-karat bitch.
But no point in getting upset about it. Economic agnostics (like us) are usually well positioned to make money in fair weather, or foul. Certainly, the case again this week.