I would not be surprised to see the market end the week about where it was after the Fed announcement Wednesday (more save-the-bankers, crap). Sent out an email to a few colleagues:
“The Wednesday close of my Aggregate Index was 0.317 percent (3-10ths of 1 percent) above a picture perfect Fibonacci retrace of the rally of the larger wave 2.
The all-time high was 29,059.63 on Feb. 19. The Aggregate low was 19,418.67 on March 23. The close Wed.) was 25,457.27. A “perfect Fibonacci Wave 2” would have been 25,376.78. We don’t know if this small overshoot will be meaningful. The coming several weeks ought to be instructive.
Futures this morning point down 144 on the Dow at the open, but we’ll pass on saying it’s the top of Wave 2 – except we might refer back to this mention down the road a ways.
Something worth keeping an eye on: It seems that although Germany has been “getting back to work” there’s a surge in new cases being reported as a result.
The problem, as we have been saying since freakin’ JANUARY, is that the spread of disease is halted only one way: Reducing the interaction between people. And that’s antithetical to the “constant growth American business model.
While it may have sounded alarmist at the time for me to have mad bold (verging on stupid-sounding) forecasts of “supply chain collapse” we are swimming in those waters riight now. Toilet paper is still hard to find, meat is slowly coming off-line, and there are some goods that Amazon is reporting long “estimated ship times” for.,
Why? Oh, ‘cuz our view has been correct.
Now, as states like Texas are partially going back to work tomorrow, we think governor Greg Abbott is doing the reasonable thing – a staged return – so that if there’s an impact in cases, we can manage it. Well, except for the little detail that an outbreak can take a month to evolve and by then, more staging back to work will have happened.
Speaking of Relocks, and swimming, however, California governor Newsom is planning by some reports to be planning to close public beaches and parks.
And that gets us out into the republican loony fringe. You see, the former California republican party chair is turning a reasonable decision on Newsom’s part into a political f*ckfest. We think said ex-chair is an idiot. Anyone who’s watched any of the “doctor shows” on the Cyclops box knows the first-order in medicine is Do No Harm.”
You can’t solve a medical problem by turning it into politics. Somehow, the medicine hass to work. ‘zis so hard to grasp? FMTT.
If pilots flew airplanes like people are making off-the-cuff decisions about CV-19, there’d be piles of aluminum falling out of the skies, everywhere. Fortunately, a few in government are trying to act in a measured way.
Still, Your Lifestyle is Collapsing
Year’s back, I outlined what was coming as the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars – which is what CV-19 is speeding-up. Since we have almost 13-times more cases than China, whether it’s a biowar (or not), it has the same form factor and tactile’ s plus graphics that would go with such an event.
While horrible though, this Modern Plague is fixing a lot of the talking points of the Left. For example: Auto use has collapsed. With it, pollution levels have collapsed. More people are working from home. Mass consumption is down. Even vegans gotta be partying with packing plant closures. Exploitation of “low paid food service workers” is over – since few are going out to eat.
The pandemic is a “made to order” planet saver. (What will the Left bitch about next? Want in the office pool on that?)
Thing is, most people won’t see it, what – not being able to brush past the BS of the monetizing sold by crooked politicians… This is exactly the reason we stepped-down our lifestyle to a double-wide mobile home in the woods 17-years ago. There are too many people and not enough Planet. We wanted land. In the end, if you own land, you own something of your future.
When I began to espouse such nutty views in 2003, it was ridiculed widely: “Who would trust anyone living in a trailer in the woods?” Peels of laughter and finger-pointing followed. But Ure who laughs last, laughs best. Again.
Renewables: Does Michael Moore “Get It?“
Under “Michael Moore Presents” there is a blow-your-socks off documentary you have to make time for today or tomorrow. Let’s back up: Tip came in a note from Chris Tyreman up in Canada:
“Go to YouTube and look up the documentary “planet of the humans.” Its only available for 2 more days. The lefties are hoping no one sees this. It destroys the idea of renewable energy being reliable. “
Well, hell yes, it does. This is something Oilman2 has been blowing the whistle on around here for what…ten or fifteen YEARS?
The whole “environmental and green” movement is scammy. Because deep down inside, all their bullshit “green answers” depend on one thing: Cheap fossil fuels. More fossil fuels. Fossil, fossil, fossil.
It also depends on people remaining stupid and gullible. Well, this is ‘Merica, so got ’em covered there, right? Buzz-terms like “biomass” is just corporate speak and Gore gibbber for cutting down trees and burning them. We’re like a planet of ants eating everything in our way. There’s no biomass without diesel…no ox carts taking logs to mills to then power servers of the greenies…
So go here and watch the whole video:
Recycling: Universe Balances
While it’s true that solar panels may never produce enough energy in their product lifetime to justify their cost in terms of energy, a funny thing happened to us the same day this video landed in the inbox.
I spied an online ad frrom an outfit in Arizona that was selling used 265-watt solar panels for $45-bucks apiece. New panels like this are many times that price. so I got on the phone after checking out the creds of the folks, and talked them down to $40-bucks a panel. Adding 10-more to the array here…which takes us up to 30-panels, in all.
Downsides: These panels are 3-5 years old. So realistically, they will likely put out about 210-220 watts each. Some frames may have a bend in the aluminum frames from being previously mounted. And there was $210 worth of shipping to get a lift gate residential deliver pallet of panels to the ranch.
But here’s the deal: With shipping that $610 for 2,100 watts of solar delivered.
Last month our energy cost here came in at $175 and our power runs around 12-cents a kilowatt-hour. What this will do is let us sell-back to the grid for about 5-hours a day for the next 10-years or longer. So 24-cents an hour, and figuring 5+hours a day, let’s round down to a buck-a-day.
Break-even: 2-years. But that brings us up to al least 5 KW of solar. Since we’ve got excess inverter capacity on the sell-side and since we’ve had a co-gen agreement since 2008, I’ll just weld-up another T-post rack and another MPPT inverter and whee! Spin that meter backwards, bubba.
I’m doing this because EMP and the grid going down is a pretty realistic fear now…and the gracefulness of how the Universe Provides was astounding to experience: Unmasking of the green con in a documentary the same time as providiing me benefit of nearly free solar panels…and a chance to see how the “balance in Universe” is maintained.
Do we lead a charmed life out here, or what?
Oh…forgot one little secret of solar: Turns out, revealed one of my sons-in-law who’s a journeyman electrician, that when “solar panel output fades down over time” you can often recover 10-25% of the “lost capacity” by simply rewiring. Because copper corrodes over time, resistance builds in the connectiions… and…hell yeah, pass me another tube of silicone electrical grease, would you?
Retreat: Make Your Hobbies Pay
Some discussion this weekend may focus on how to turn hobbies into a grand lifestyle But, gotta say, that in addition to slowly evolving toward energy self-sufficiency, I’ve been seriously getting into the greenhouse lately.
I don’t have delusions about being able to “eat off the land…at least yet, but think about it. <More coming this weekend.>
Too many people get sucked in to “having the most, newest, most impressive…yada yada…”
Pass. We want to own our life, not be in hock to some bankster leech. Free and clear, live without fear. Live in the city, life gets shitty, You can’t eat paper, you can’t eat gold. But own some land, that never gets old. Georgie Shave.
More on the ‘morrow & write when you get rich,